Making Drug Approval Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty: Cumulative Evidence versus Value of Information.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic underscored the criticality and complexity of decision making for novel treatment approval and further research. Our study aims to assess potential decision-making methodologies, an evaluation vital for refining future public health crisis responses. METHODS: We compared 4 decision-making approaches to drug approval and research: the Food and Drug Administration's policy decisions, cumulative meta-analysis, a prospective value-of-information (VOI) approach (using information available at the time of decision), and a reference standard (retrospective VOI analysis using information available in hindsight). Possible decisions were to reject, accept, provide emergency use authorization, or allow access to new therapies only in research settings. We used monoclonal antibodies provided to hospitalized COVID-19 patients as a case study, examining the evidence from September 2020 to December 2021 and focusing on each method's capacity to optimize health outcomes and resource allocation. RESULTS: Our findings indicate a notable discrepancy between policy decisions and the reference standard retrospective VOI approach with expected losses up to $269 billion USD, suggesting suboptimal resource use during the wait for emergency use authorization. Relying solely on cumulative meta-analysis for decision making results in the largest expected loss, while the policy approach showed a loss up to $16 billion and the prospective VOI approach presented the least loss (up to $2 billion). CONCLUSION: Our research suggests that incorporating VOI analysis may be particularly useful for research prioritization and treatment implementation decisions during pandemics. While the prospective VOI approach was favored in this case study, further studies should validate the ideal decision-making method across various contexts. This study's findings not only enhance our understanding of decision-making strategies during a health crisis but also provide a potential framework for future pandemic responses. HIGHLIGHTS: This study reviews discrepancies between a reference standard (retrospective VOI, using hindsight information) and 3 conceivable real-time approaches to research-treatment decisions during a pandemic, suggesting suboptimal use of resources.Of all prospective decision-making approaches considered, VOI closely mirrored the reference standard, yielding the least expected value loss across our study timeline.This study illustrates the possible benefit of VOI results and the need for evidence accumulation accompanied by modeling in health technology assessment for emerging therapies.

Reducing behavior problems in children born after an unintended pregnancy: the generation R study.

OBJECTIVES: To examine differences in behavior problems between children from intended versus unintended pregnancies, and to estimate how much the difference in problem behavior would be reduced if postnatal depression was eliminated and social support was increased within 6 months after birth. METHODS: Data from the Generation R Study were used, a population-based birth cohort in Rotterdam, the Netherlands (N = 9621). Differences in child internalizing and externalizing behavior at ages 1.5, 3, 6, 9 and 13 years between pregnancy intention groups were estimated using linear regression. Associations of postnatal depression and social support with internalizing and externalizing problems were also estimated using linear regression. Child behavior outcomes where compared before and after modelling a situation in which none of the mothers experienced a postnatal depression and all mother experienced high social support. RESULTS: Most pregnancies (72.9%) were planned, 14.8% were unplanned and wanted, 10.8% were unplanned with initially ambivalent feelings and 1.5% with prolonged ambivalent feelings. Children from unplanned pregnancies had more internalizing and externalizing problems at all ages as compared to children from a planned pregnancy, especially when ambivalent feelings were present. Hypothetically eliminating on postnatal depression reduced the differences in internalizing and externalizing problems by 0.02 to 0.16 standard deviation. Hypothetically increasing social support did not significantly reduce the difference in internalizing and externalizing problems. CONCLUSIONS: Children from an unplanned pregnancy have more behavior problems, in particular when mothers had prolonged ambivalent feelings. Eliminating postnatal depression may help to reduce the inequality in child behavior related to pregnancy intention.

Examining longitudinal associations between prenatal exposure to infections and child brain morphology.

BACKGROUND: Maternal infection during pregnancy has been identified as a prenatal risk factor for the later development of psychopathology in exposed offspring. Neuroimaging data collected during childhood has suggested a link between prenatal exposure to maternal infection and child brain structure and function, potentially offering a neurobiological explanation for the emergence of psychopathology. Additionally, preclinical studies utilizing repeated measures of neuroimaging data suggest that effects of prenatal maternal infection on the offspring's brain may normalize over time (i.e., catch-up growth). However, it remains unclear whether exposure to prenatal maternal infection in humans is related to long-term differential neurodevelopmental trajectories. Hence, this study aimed to investigate the association between prenatal exposure to infections on child brain development over time using repeated measures MRI data. METHODS: We leveraged data from a population-based cohort, Generation R, in which we examined prospectively assessed self-reported infections at each trimester of pregnancy (N = 2,155). We further used three neuroimaging assessments (at mean ages 8, 10 and 14) to obtain cortical and subcortical measures of the offspring's brain morphology with MRI. Hereafter, we applied linear mixed-effects models, adjusting for several confounding factors, to estimate the association of prenatal maternal infection with child brain development over time. RESULTS: We found that prenatal exposure to infection in the third trimester was associated with a slower decrease in volumes of the pars orbitalis, rostral anterior cingulate and superior frontal gyrus, and a faster increase in the middle temporal gyrus. In the temporal pole we observed a divergent pattern, specifically showing an increase in volume in offspring exposed to more infections compared to a decrease in volume in offspring exposed to fewer infections. We further observed associations in other frontal and temporal lobe structures after exposure to infections in any trimester, though these did not survive multiple testing correction. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that prenatal exposure to infections in the third trimester may be associated with slower age-related growth in the regions: pars orbitalis, rostral anterior cingulate and superior frontal gyrus, and faster age-related growth in the middle temporal gyrus across childhood, suggesting a potential sensitive period. Our results might be interpreted as an extension of longitudinal findings from preclinical studies, indicating that children exposed to prenatal infections could exhibit catch-up growth. However, given the lack of differences in brain volume between various infection groups at baseline, there may instead be either a longitudinal deviation or a subtle temporal deviation. Subsequent well-powered studies that extend into the period of full brain development (∼25 years) are needed to confirm whether the observed phenomenon is indeed catch-up growth, a longitudinal deviation, or a subtle temporal deviation.

Attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder symptoms and brain morphology: Addressing potential selection bias with inverse probability weighting.

The goal of this study was to examine what happens to established associations between attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) symptoms and cortical surface and thickness regions once we apply inverse probability of censoring weighting (IPCW) to address potential selection bias. Moreover, we illustrate how different factors that predict participation contribute to potential selection bias. Participants were 9- to 11-year-old children from the Generation R study (N = 2707). Cortical area and thickness were measured with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and ADHD symptoms with the Child Behavior Checklist. We examined how associations between ADHD symptoms and brain morphology change when we weight our sample back to either follow-up (ages 9-11), baseline (cohort at birth), or eligible (population of Rotterdam at time of recruitment). Weights were derived using IPCW or raking and missing predictors of participation used to estimate weights were imputed. Weighting analyses to baseline and eligible increased beta coefficients for the middle temporal gyrus surface area, as well as fusiform gyrus cortical thickness. Alternatively, the beta coefficient for the rostral anterior cingulate decreased. Removing one group of variables used for estimating weights resulted in the weighted regression coefficient moving closer to the unweighted regression coefficient. In addition, we found considerably different beta coefficients for most surface area regions and all thickness measures when we did not impute missing covariate data. Our findings highlight the importance of using inverse probability weighting (IPW) in the neuroimaging field, especially in the context of mental health-related research. We found that including all variables related to exposure-outcome in the IPW model and combining IPW with multiple imputations can help reduce bias. We encourage future psychiatric neuroimaging studies to define their target population, collect information on eligible but not included participants and use inverse probability of censoring weighting (IPCW) to reduce selection bias.

Potential impact of unblinding on observed treatment effects in Alzheimer's disease trials.

INTRODUCTION: Adverse effects of monoclonal antibodies against amyloid beta are common, and may affect validity of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) through unblinding of participants. METHODS: We used observations from published phase 3 RCTs in Alzheimer's disease to calculate the magnitude of unblinding effects on cognition that would be required to explain observed cognitive benefits in RCTs. RESULTS: In trials of lecanemab, aducanumab, and donanemab, incidence of amyloid-related imaging abnormalities with active treatment ranged from 22% to 44%, the vast majority of which presumably led to unblinding. Effects of unblinding on the Clinical Dementia Rating Sum of Boxes required to fully explain observed drug effects ranged from 1.1 point (95% confidence interval: 0.2-2.0) with aducanumab, to 3.3 points (2.1-4.4) with donanemab and 3.7 points (2.0-5.6) with lecanemab. Infusion-related reactions were common, with potential unblinding effects particularly for lecanemab. Similar patterns were observed for the Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale Cognitive subscale. DISCUSSION: Psychological treatment effects due to unblinding may explain a substantial share of observed treatment effects in RCTs.

Falsification of the instrumental variable conditions in Mendelian randomization studies in the UK Biobank.

Mendelian randomization (MR) is an increasingly popular approach to estimating causal effects. Although the assumptions underlying MR cannot be verified, they imply certain constraints, the instrumental inequalities, which can be used to falsify the MR conditions. However, the instrumental inequalities are rarely applied in MR. We aimed to explore whether the instrumental inequalities could detect violations of the MR conditions in case studies analyzing the effect of commonly studied exposures on coronary artery disease risk.Using 1077 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), we applied the instrumental inequalities to MR models for the effects of vitamin D concentration, alcohol consumption, C-reactive protein (CRP), triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, and low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol on coronary artery disease in the UK Biobank. For their relevant exposure, we applied the instrumental inequalities to MR models proposing each SNP as an instrument individually, and to MR models proposing unweighted allele scores as an instrument. We did not identify any violations of the MR assumptions when proposing each SNP as an instrument individually. When proposing allele scores as instruments, we detected violations of the MR assumptions for 5 of 6 exposures.Within our setting, this suggests the instrumental inequalities can be useful for identifying violations of the MR conditions when proposing multiple SNPs as instruments, but may be less useful in determining which SNPs are not instruments. This work demonstrates how incorporating the instrumental inequalities into MR analyses can help researchers to identify and mitigate potential bias.

Diagnostic accuracy of MRI techniques for treatment response evaluation in patients with brain metastasis: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Treatment response assessment in patients with brain metastasis uses contrast enhanced T1-weighted MRI. Advanced MRI techniques have been studied, but the diagnostic accuracy is not well known. Therefore, we performed a metaanalysis to assess the diagnostic accuracy of the currently available MRI techniques for treatment response. METHODS: A systematic literature search was done. Study selection and data extraction were done by two authors independently. Meta-analysis was performed using a bivariate random effects model. An independent cohort was used for DSC perfusion external validation of diagnostic accuracy. RESULTS: Anatomical MRI (16 studies, 726 lesions) showed a pooled sensitivity of 79% and a specificity of 76%. DCE perfusion (4 studies, 114 lesions) showed a pooled sensitivity of 74% and a specificity of 92%. DSC perfusion (12 studies, 418 lesions) showed a pooled sensitivity was 83% with a specificity of 78%. Diffusion weighted imaging (7 studies, 288 lesions) showed a pooled sensitivity of 67% and a specificity of 79%. MRS (4 studies, 54 lesions) showed a pooled sensitivity of 80% and a specificity of 78%. Combined techniques (6 studies, 375 lesions) showed a pooled sensitivity of 84% and a specificity of 88%. External validation of DSC showed a lower sensitivity and a higher specificity for the reported cut-off values included in this metaanalysis. CONCLUSION: A combination of techniques shows the highest diagnostic accuracy differentiating tumor progression from treatment induced abnormalities. External validation of imaging results is important to better define the reliability of imaging results with the different techniques.

Prenatal exposure to trans fatty acids and head growth in fetal life and childhood: triangulating confounder-adjustment and instrumental variable approaches.

Dietary trans fatty acids (TFAs) are primarily industrially produced and remain abundant in processed food, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Although TFAs are a cause of adverse cardiometabolic outcomes, little is known about exposure to TFAs in relation to brain development. We aimed to investigate the effect of maternal TFA concentration during pregnancy on offspring head growth in utero and during childhood. In a prospective population-based study in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, with 6900 mother-child dyads, maternal plasma TFA concentration was assessed using gas chromatography in mid-gestation. Offspring head circumference (HC) was measured in the second and third trimesters using ultrasonography; childhood brain morphology was assessed using magnetic resonance imaging at age 10 years. We performed regression analyses adjusting for sociodemographic and lifestyle confounders and instrumental variable (IV) analyses. Our IV analysis leveraged a national policy change that led to a substantial reduction in TFA and occurred mid-recruitment. After adjusting for covariates, maternal TFA concentration during pregnancy was inversely related to fetal HC in the third trimester (mean difference per 1% wt:wt increase: - 0.33, 95% CI - 0.51, - 0.15, cm) and to fetal HC growth from the second to the third trimester (- 0.04, 95% CI - 0.06, - 0.02, cm/week). Consistent findings were obtained with IV analyses, strengthening a causal interpretation. Association between prenatal TFA exposure and HC in the second trimester or global brain volume at age 10 years was inconclusive. Our findings are of important public health relevance as TFA levels in food remain high in many countries.

Invited Commentary: Conducting and Emulating Trials to Study Effects of Social Interventions.

All else being equal, if we had 1 causal effect we wished to estimate, we would conduct a randomized trial with a protocol that mapped onto that causal question, or we would attempt to emulate that target trial with observational data. However, studying the social determinants of health often means there are not just 1 but several causal contrasts of simultaneous interest and importance, and each of these related but distinct causal questions may have varying degrees of feasibility in conducting trials. With this in mind, we discuss challenges and opportunities that arise when conducting and emulating such trials. We describe designing trials with the simultaneous goals of estimating the intention-to-treat effect, the per-protocol effect, effects of alternative protocols or joint interventions, effects within subgroups, and effects under interference, and we describe ways to make the most of all feasible randomized trials and emulated trials using observational data. Our comments are grounded in the study results of Courtin et al. (Am J Epidemiol. 2022;191(8):1444-1452).

Physical Activity Spaces Not Effective against Socioeconomic Inequalities in Myopia Incidence: The Generation R Study.

SIGNIFICANCE: Our findings show that non-Dutch background, lower maternal education, and lower net household income level may be new risk factors for myopia development in the Netherlands. Newly introduced physical activity spaces may not be effective enough in increasing outdoor exposure in children to reduce eye growth. PURPOSE: The aims of this study were to evaluate socioeconomic inequalities in myopia incidence, eye growth, outdoor exposure, and computer use and to investigate if newly introduced physical activity spaces can reduce eye growth in school-aged children. METHODS: Participants (N = 2643) from the Dutch population-based birth cohort Generation R were examined at ages 6 and 9 years. Socioeconomic inequalities in myopia incidence, eye growth, and lifestyle were determined using regression analyses. Information on physical activity spaces located in Rotterdam was obtained. Differences in eye growth between those who became exposed to new physical activity spaces (n = 230) and those nonexposed (n = 1866) were evaluated with individual-level fixed-effects models. RESULTS: Myopia prevalence was 2.2% at age 6 years and 12.2% at age 9 years. Outdoor exposure was 11.4 h/wk at age 6 years and 7.4 h/wk at age 9 years. Computer use was 2.1 h/wk at age 6 years and 5.2 h/wk at age 9 years. Myopia incidence was higher in children with non-Dutch background, and families with lower household income and lower maternal education (odds ratio [OR], 1.081 [95% confidence interval, 1.052 to 1.112]; OR, 1.035 [95% confidence interval, 1.008 to 1.063]; OR, 1.028 [95% confidence interval, 1.001 to 1.055], respectively). Children living <600 m of a physical activity space did not have increased outdoor exposure, except those from families with lower maternal education (ß = 1.33 h/wk; 95% confidence interval, 0.15 to 2.51 h/wk). Newly introduced physical activity spaces were not associated with reduction of eye growth. CONCLUSIONS: Children from socioeconomically disadvantaged families became more often myopic than those from socioeconomically advantaged families. We did not find evidence that physical activity spaces protect against myopia for the population at large, but subgroups may benefit.

Genetic scores for adult subcortical volumes associate with subcortical volumes during infancy and childhood.

Individual differences in subcortical brain volumes are highly heritable. Previous studies have identified genetic variants that underlie variation in subcortical volumes in adults. We tested whether those previously identified variants also affect subcortical regions during infancy and early childhood. The study was performed within the Generation R study, a prospective birth cohort. We calculated polygenic scores based on reported GWAS for volumes of the accumbens, amygdala, brainstem, caudate nucleus, globus pallidus, putamen, and thalamus. Participants underwent cranial ultrasound around 7 weeks of age (range: 3-20), and we obtained metrics for the gangliothalamic ovoid, a predecessor of the basal ganglia. Furthermore, the children participated in a magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) study around the age of 10 years (range: 9-12). A total of 340 children had complete data at both examinations. Polygenic scores primarily associated with their corresponding volumes at 10 years of age. The scores also moderately related to the diameter of the gangliothalamic ovoid on cranial ultrasound. Mediation analysis showed that the genetic influence on subcortical volumes at 10 years was only mediated for 16.5-17.6% of the total effect through the gangliothalamic ovoid diameter at 7 weeks of age. Combined, these findings suggest that previously identified genetic variants in adults are relevant for subcortical volumes during early life, and that they affect both prenatal and postnatal development of the subcortical regions.

Mendelian randomisation approaches to the study of prenatal exposures: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Mendelian randomisation (MR) designs apply instrumental variable techniques using genetic variants to study causal effects. MR is increasingly used to evaluate the role of maternal exposures during pregnancy on offspring health. OBJECTIVES: We review the application of MR to prenatal exposures and describe reporting of methodologic challenges in this area. DATA SOURCES: We searched PubMed, EMBASE, Medline Ovid, Cochrane Central, Web of Science, and Google Scholar. STUDY SELECTION AND DATA EXTRACTION: Eligible studies met the following criteria: (a) a maternal pregnancy exposure; (b) an outcome assessed in offspring of the pregnancy; and (c) a genetic variant or score proposed as an instrument or proxy for an exposure. SYNTHESIS: We quantified the frequency of reporting of MR conditions stated, techniques used to examine assumption plausibility, and reported limitations. RESULTS: Forty-three eligible studies were identified. When discussing challenges or limitations, the most common issues described were known potential biases in the broader MR literature, including population stratification (n = 29), weak instrument bias (n = 18), and certain types of pleiotropy (n = 30). Of 22 studies presenting point estimates for the effect of exposure, four defined their causal estimand. Twenty-four studies discussed issues unique to prenatal MR, including selection on pregnancy (n = 1) and pleiotropy via postnatal exposure (n = 10) or offspring genotype (n = 20). CONCLUSIONS: Prenatal MR studies frequently discuss issues that affect all MR studies, but rarely discuss problems specific to the prenatal context, including selection on pregnancy and effects of postnatal exposure. Future prenatal MR studies should report and attempt to falsify their assumptions, with particular attention to issues specific to prenatal MR. Further research is needed to evaluate the impacts of biases unique to prenatal MR in practice.

Do Case-Control Studies Always Estimate Odds Ratios?

Case-control studies are an important part of the epidemiologic literature, yet confusion remains about how to interpret estimates from different case-control study designs. We demonstrate that not all case-control study designs estimate odds ratios. On the contrary, case-control studies in the literature often report odds ratios as their main parameter even when using designs that do not estimate odds ratios. Only studies using specific case-control designs should report odds ratios, whereas the case-cohort and incidence-density sampled case-control studies must report risk ratio and incidence rate ratios, respectively. This also applies to case-control studies conducted in open cohorts, which often estimate incidence rate ratios. We also demonstrate the misinterpretation of case-control study estimates in a small sample of highly cited case-control studies in general epidemiologic and medical journals. We therefore suggest that greater care be taken when considering which parameter is to be reported from a case-control study.

Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 by Children.

BACKGROUND: Six months into the COVID-19 pandemic, children appear largely spared from the direct effects of disease, suggesting age as an important predictor of infection and severity. They remain, however, impacted by far-reaching public health interventions. One crucial question often posed is whether children generally transmit SARS-CoV-2 effectively. METHODS: We assessed the components of transmission and the different study designs and considerations necessary for valid assessment of transmission dynamics. We searched for published evidence about transmission of SARS-CoV-2 by children employing a narrative review methodology through 25 June, 2020. RESULTS: Transmission dynamics must be studied in repre - sentative pediatric populations with a combination of study designs including rigorous epidemiological studies (e.g. in households, schools, daycares, clinical settings) and laboratory studies while taking into account the social and socio-economic contexts. Viral load (VL) estimates from representative pediatric samples of infected children are missing so far. Currently available evidence suggests that the secondary attack rate stratified by age of the infector is lower for children, however this age pattern needs to be better quantified and understood. CONCLUSION: A generalizable pediatric evidence base is urgently needed to inform policy making now, later when facing potential subsequent waves, and extending through a future in which endemicity alongside vaccination may become the enduring reality.

Estimating Reductions in Ethnic Inequalities in Child Adiposity from Hypothetical Diet, Screen Time, and Sports Participation Interventions.

BACKGROUND: Childhood obesity is a global epidemic, and its prevalence differs by ethnicity. The objective of this study was to estimate the change in ethnic inequalities in child adiposity at age 10 resulting from interventions on diet at age 8 and screen time and sports participation at age 9. METHODS: We conducted a population-based cohort study, the Generation R Study, from 9,749 births in Rotterdam (2002-2006), of which 9,506 children remained in the analysis. We measured ethnicity, diet, screen time, and sports participation through questionnaires; we measured weight, body mass index (BMI), fat mass index, and fat-free mass index directly. We used sequential G-estimation to estimate the reduction in inequality that would result from the interventions. RESULTS: We observed that sociodemographic characteristics, diet, screen time, sports participation, and all adiposity measurements were more favorable in children from Western versus non-Western ethnic backgrounds: weight = -1.2 kg (95% confidence interval [CI] = -1.7, -0.8), BMI = -1.0 kg/m (CI = -1.2, -0.9), and fat mass index = -0.8 kg/m (CI = -0.9, -0.7). We estimated that extreme intervention (maximum diet score of 10, no screen time, and >4 hours/week of sports) reduced ethnic inequalities by 21% (CI = 8%, 35%) for weight, 9% (CI = 4%, 14%) for BMI, and 9% (CI = 6%, 13%) for fat mass index. A diet score ≥5 points, screen time ≤2 hours/day, and sports participation >2 hours/week reduced ethnic inequalities by 17% (CI = 6%, 28%) for weight, 7% (CI = 3%, 11%) for BMI, and 7% (CI = 4%, 10%) for fat mass index. CONCLUSIONS: Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that interventions integrating diet, screen time, and sports participation have a moderate impact on reducing ethnic inequalities in child adiposity.

Pathology-confirmed versus non pathology-confirmed cancer diagnoses: incidence, participant characteristics, and survival.

Cancer diagnoses which are not confirmed by pathology are often under-registered in cancer registries compared to pathology-confirmed diagnoses. It is unknown how many patients have a non pathology-confirmed cancer diagnosis, and whether their characteristics and survival differ from patients with a pathology-confirmed diagnosis. Participants from the prospective population-based Rotterdam Study were followed between 1989 and 2013 for the diagnosis of cancer. Cancer diagnoses were classified into pathology-confirmed versus non pathology-confirmed (i.e., based on imaging or tumour markers). We compared participant characteristics and the distribution of cancers at different sites. Furthermore, we investigated differences in overall survival using survival curves adjusted for age and sex. During a median (interquartile range) follow-up of 10.7 (6.3-15.9) years, 2698 out of 14,024 participants were diagnosed with cancer, of which 316 diagnoses (11.7%) were non pathology-confirmed. Participants with non pathology-confirmed diagnoses were older, more often women, and had a lower education. Most frequently non pathology-confirmed cancer sites included central nervous system (66.7%), hepato-pancreato-biliary (44.5%), and unknown primary origin (31.2%). Survival of participants with non pathology-confirmed diagnoses after 1 year was lower compared to survival of participants with pathology-confirmed diagnoses (32.6% vs. 63.4%; risk difference of 30.8% [95% CI 25.2%; 36.2%]). Pathological confirmation of cancer is related to participant characteristics and cancer site. Furthermore, participants with non pathology-confirmed diagnoses have worse survival than participants with pathology-confirmed diagnoses. Missing data on non pathology-confirmed diagnoses may result in underestimation of cancer incidence and in an overestimation of survival in cancer registries, and may introduce bias in aetiological research.