A target-cell limited model can reproduce influenza infection dynamics in hosts with differing immune responses.

We consider a hierarchy of ordinary differential equation models that describe the within-host viral kinetics of influenza infections: the IR model explicitly accounts for an immune response to the virus, while the simpler, target-cell limited TEIV and TV models do not. We show that when the IR model is fitted to pooled experimental murine data of the viral load, fraction of dead cells, and immune response levels, its parameters values can be determined. However, if, as is common, only viral load data are available, we can estimate parameters of the TEIV and TV models but not the IR model. These results are substantiated by a structural and practical identifiability analysis. We then use the IR model to generate synthetic data representing infections in hosts whose immune responses differ. We fit the TV model to these synthetic datasets and show that it can reproduce the characteristic exponential increase and decay of viral load generated by the IR model. Furthermore, the values of the fitted parameters of the TV model can be mapped from the immune response parameters in the IR model. We conclude that, if only viral load data are available, a simple target-cell limited model can reproduce influenza infection dynamics and distinguish between hosts with differing immune responses.

Effect of HPV vaccination and cervical cancer screening in England by ethnicity: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Health equality is increasingly being considered alongside overall health gain when assessing public health interventions. However, the trade-off between the direct effects of vaccination and herd immunity could lead to unintuitive consequences for the distribution of disease burden within a population. We used a transmission dynamic model of human papillomavirus (HPV) to investigate the effect of ethnic disparities in vaccine and cervical screening uptake on inequality in disease incidence in England. METHODS: We developed an individual-based model of HPV transmission and disease, parameterising it with the latest data for sexual behaviour (from National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles [Natsal-3]) and vaccine and screening uptake by ethnicity (from Public Health England [PHE]) and fitting it to data for HPV prevalence (from ARTISTIC, PHE, Natsal-3) and HPV-related disease incidence (from National Cancer Registry [ONS]). The outcome of interest was the age-adjusted incidence of HPV-related cancer (both cervical and non-cervical) in all women in England in view of differences and changes in vaccination and screening uptake by ethnicity in England, over time. We also studied three potential public health interventions aimed at reducing inequality in HPV-related disease incidence: increasing uptake in black and Asian females to match that in whites for vaccination; cervical screening in women who turn 25 in 2018 or later; and cervical screening in all ages. FINDINGS: In the pre-vaccination era, before 2008, women from ethnic minorities in England reported a disproportionate share of cervical disease. Our model suggests that Asian women were 1·7 times (95% credibility interval [CI] 1·1-2·7) more likely to be diagnosed with cervical cancer than white women (22·8 vs 13·4 cases per 100 000 women). Because HPV vaccination uptake is lower in ethnic minorities, we predict an initial widening of this gap, with cervical cancer incidence in Asian women up to 2·5 times higher (95% CI 1·3-4·8) than in white women 20 years after vaccine introduction (corresponding to an additional 10·8 [95% CI 10·1-11·5] cases every year). In time, we predict that herd immunity benefits will diffuse from the larger white sub-population and the disparity will narrow. Increased cervical screening uptake in vaccinated women from ethnic minorities would lead to rapid improvement in equality with parity in incidence after 20 years of HPV vaccination. INTERPRETATION: Our study suggests that the introduction of HPV vaccination in England will initially widen a pre-existing disparity in the incidence of HPV-related cancer by ethnicity, partly due to herd immunity disproportionately benefiting subgroups with high vaccination rates. Although in time this induced disparity will narrow, increasing cervical screening uptake in girls from ethnic minorities should be encouraged to eliminate the inequality in cervical cancer incidence in the medium term. We recommend that dynamic effects should be considered when estimating the effect of public health programmes on equality. FUNDING: Cancer Research UK.

Use of mathematical modelling to assess the impact of vaccines on antibiotic resistance.

Antibiotic resistance is a major global threat to the provision of safe and effective health care. To control antibiotic resistance, vaccines have been proposed as an essential intervention, complementing improvements in diagnostic testing, antibiotic stewardship, and drug pipelines. The decision to introduce or amend vaccination programmes is routinely based on mathematical modelling. However, few mathematical models address the impact of vaccination on antibiotic resistance. We reviewed the literature using PubMed to identify all studies that used an original mathematical model to quantify the impact of a vaccine on antibiotic resistance transmission within a human population. We reviewed the models from the resulting studies in the context of a new framework to elucidate the pathways through which vaccination might impact antibiotic resistance. We identified eight mathematical modelling studies; the state of the literature highlighted important gaps in our understanding. Notably, studies are limited in the range of pathways represented, their geographical scope, and the vaccine-pathogen combinations assessed. Furthermore, to translate model predictions into public health decision making, more work is needed to understand how model structure and parameterisation affects model predictions and how to embed these predictions within economic frameworks.

Th1-Like ICOS+ Foxp3+ Treg Cells Preferentially Express CXCR3 and Home to ß-Islets during Pre-Diabetes in BDC2.5 NOD Mice.

Type 1 diabetes (T1D) occurs through a breakdown of self-tolerance resulting in the autoimmune destruction of the insulin producing ß-islets of the pancreas. A numerical and functional waning of CD4+ Foxp3+ regulatory T (Treg) cells, prompted by a pancreatic IL-2 deficiency, accompanies Th1 autoimmunity and T1D progression in non-obese diabetic (NOD) mice. Recently, we identified a dominant subset of intra-islet Treg cells that expresses the ICOS costimulatory receptor and promotes self-tolerance delaying the onset of T1D. ICOS co-stimulation potently enhances IL-2 induced survival and proliferation, and suppressive activity of Treg cells in situ. Here, we propose an ICOS-dependent mechanism of Treg cell homing to the ß-islets during pre-diabetes in the NOD model via upregulation of the CXCR3 chemokine receptor. The islet-specific ICOS+ Treg cell subset preferentially expresses CXCR3 in the pancreatic lymph nodes (pLN) in response to Teff cell-mediated pancreatic inflammation, an expression correlating with the onset and magnitude of IFN-γ production by Teff cells in pancreatic sites. We also reveal that intra-pancreatic APC populations and insulin-producing ß, but not α nor δ, islet cells secrete the CXCR3 chemokines, CXCL9, 10 and 11, and selectively promote ICOS+ CXCR3+ Treg cell chemotaxis in vitro. Strikingly, islet-derived Treg cells also produce these chemokines suggesting an auto-regulation of homing by this subset. Unlike ICOS- cells, ICOS+ Treg cells adopt a Th1-like Treg phenotype while maintaining their suppressive capacity, characterized by expression of T-bet and CXCR3 and production of IFN-γ in the draining pLNs. Finally, in vivo neutralization of IFN-γ blocked Treg cell CXCR3 upregulation evincing its role in regulating expression of this chemokine receptor by Treg cells. Thus, CXCR3-mediated trafficking of Treg cells could represent a mechanism of homeostatic immunoregulation during diabetogeneesis.

Unc93b1 -Dependent Endosomal Toll-Like Receptor Signaling Regulates Inflammation and Mortality during Coxsackievirus B3 Infection.

Coxsackievirus strain B serotype 3 (CVB3)-induced myocarditis is an important human disease that causes permanent tissue damage and can lead to death from acute infection or long-term morbidity caused by chronic inflammation. The timing and magnitude of immune activation following CVB3 infection can mediate a positive host outcome or increase tissue pathology. To better elucidate the role of endosomal Toll-like receptor (TLR) signaling in acute CVB3 infection, we studied mice with a loss-of-function mutation, known as Letr for 'loss of endosomal TLR response', in Unc93b1, which is a chaperone protein for TLR3, TLR7 and TLR9. Using Unc93b1(Letr/)(Letr) mice, we determined that Unc93b1-dependent TLR activation was essential for the survival of acute CVB3-induced myocarditis. We also determined that a lack of endosomal TLR signaling was associated with a higher viral load in target organs and that it increased inflammation, necrosis and fibrosis in cardiac tissue. Loss of Unc93b1 function was also associated with increased cardiac expression of Ifn-b and markers of tissue injury and fibrosis including Lcn2 and Serpina3n early after CVB3 infection. These observations establish a significant role for Unc93b1 in the regulation of the host inflammatory response to CVB3 infection and also reveal potential mediators of host tissue damage that merit further investigation in acute viral myocarditis.

IL-33 signaling regulates innate and adaptive immunity to Cryptococcus neoformans.

Susceptibility to progressive infection with the fungus Cryptococcus neoformans is associated with an allergic pattern of lung inflammation, yet the factors that govern this host response are not clearly understood. Using a clinically relevant mouse model of inhalational infection with virulent C. neoformans H99, we demonstrate a role for IL-33-dependent signaling in host immune defense. Infection of BALB/c mice with 10(4) CFU of C. neoformans H99 caused a time-dependent induction of IL-33 with accumulation of type 2 pulmonary innate lymphoid cells and alternatively activated macrophages in the lungs as well as Th2-polarized CD4(+) T cells in draining lymph nodes. IL-33R subunit T1/ST2-deficient (T1/ST2(-/-)) mice infected with C. neoformans H99 had improved survival with a decreased fungal burden in the lungs, spleen, and brain, compared with wild-type mice. Signaling through T1/ST2 was required for the accumulation and early production of IL-5 and IL-13 by lung type 2 pulmonary innate lymphoid cells. Further analysis of T1/ST2(-/-) mice revealed increased fungicidal exudate macrophages in the lungs and decreased C. neoformans-specific Th2 cells in the mediastinal lymph nodes. T1/ST2 deficiency also diminished goblet cell hyperplasia, mucus hypersecretion, bronchoalveolar lavage eosinophilia, alternative activation of macrophages, and serum IgE. These observations demonstrate that IL-33-dependent signaling contributes to the expansion of innate type 2 immunity and subsequent Th2-biased lung immunopathology that facilitates C. neoformans growth and dissemination.

Systems analysis of a RIG-I agonist inducing broad spectrum inhibition of virus infectivity.

The RIG-I like receptor pathway is stimulated during RNA virus infection by interaction between cytosolic RIG-I and viral RNA structures that contain short hairpin dsRNA and 5' triphosphate (5'ppp) terminal structure. In the present study, an RNA agonist of RIG-I was synthesized in vitro and shown to stimulate RIG-I-dependent antiviral responses at concentrations in the picomolar range. In human lung epithelial A549 cells, 5'pppRNA specifically stimulated multiple parameters of the innate antiviral response, including IRF3, IRF7 and STAT1 activation, and induction of inflammatory and interferon stimulated genes - hallmarks of a fully functional antiviral response. Evaluation of the magnitude and duration of gene expression by transcriptional profiling identified a robust, sustained and diversified antiviral and inflammatory response characterized by enhanced pathogen recognition and interferon (IFN) signaling. Bioinformatics analysis further identified a transcriptional signature uniquely induced by 5'pppRNA, and not by IFNα-2b, that included a constellation of IRF7 and NF-kB target genes capable of mobilizing multiple arms of the innate and adaptive immune response. Treatment of primary PBMCs or lung epithelial A549 cells with 5'pppRNA provided significant protection against a spectrum of RNA and DNA viruses. In C57Bl/6 mice, intravenous administration of 5'pppRNA protected animals from a lethal challenge with H1N1 Influenza, reduced virus titers in mouse lungs and protected animals from virus-induced pneumonia. Strikingly, the RIG-I-specific transcriptional response afforded partial protection from influenza challenge, even in the absence of type I interferon signaling. This systems approach provides transcriptional, biochemical, and in vivo analysis of the antiviral efficacy of 5'pppRNA and highlights the therapeutic potential associated with the use of RIG-I agonists as broad spectrum antiviral agents.

Susceptibility to progressive Cryptococcus neoformans pulmonary infection is regulated by loci on mouse chromosomes 1 and 9.

Genetic factors that regulate the pathogenesis of pneumonia caused by the fungus Cryptococcus neoformans are poorly understood. Through a phenotypic strain survey we observed that inbred C3H/HeN mice develop a significantly greater lung fungal burden than mice of the resistant CBA/J strain 4 weeks following intratracheal infection with C. neoformans ATCC 24067. The aim of the present study was to characterize the inflammatory response of C3H/HeN mice following C. neoformans pulmonary infection and to identify genetic loci that regulate host defense. Following cryptococcal infection, C3H/HeN mice demonstrated a Th2 immune response with heightened airway and tissue eosinophilia, goblet cell metaplasia, and significantly higher lung interleukin-5 (IL-5) and IL-13 protein expression relative to CBA/J mice. Conversely, CBA/J mice exhibited greater airway and tissue neutrophilia that was associated with significantly higher pulmonary expression of gamma interferon, CXCL10, and IL-17 proteins than C3H/HeN mice. Using the fungal burden at 4 weeks postinfection as a phenotype, genome-wide quantitative trait locus (QTL) analysis among 435 segregating (C3H/HeN × CBA/J)F2 (C3HCBAF2) hybrids identified two significant QTLs on chromosomes 1 (Cnes4) and 9 (Cnes5) that control susceptibility to cryptococcal pneumonia in an additive manner. Susceptible C3H/HeN mice carry a resistance allele at Cnes4 and a susceptibility allele at Cnes5. These studies reveal additional genetic complexity of the host response to C. neoformans that is associated with divergent patterns of pulmonary inflammation.

Angiopoietin-1 and angiopoietin-2 as clinically informative prognostic biomarkers of morbidity and mortality in severe sepsis.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the utility of angiopoietin-1 and angiopoietin-2 as potentially novel biomarkers of morbidity and mortality in patients with severe sepsis. DESIGN: Multicenter longitudinal cohort study. SETTING: Three tertiary hospital intensive care units in Hamilton, Ontario, Canada. PATIENTS: A total of 70 patients with severe sepsis were enrolled within 24 hrs of meeting the inclusion criteria for severe sepsis and followed until day 28, hospital discharge, or death. INTERVENTIONS: Clinical data and plasma samples were obtained at intensive care unit admission for all 70 patients and then daily for 1 wk and weekly thereafter for a subset of 43 patients. Levels of angiopoietin-1 and angiopoietin-2 in stored plasma samples were measured and compared with clinical characteristics, including the primary outcomes of 28-day mortality and morbidity measured by the Multiple Organ Dysfunction score. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Lower angiopoietin-1 plasma levels (≤ 5.5 ng/mL) at admission were associated with increased likelihood of death (relative risk 0.49 [95% confidence interval of 0.25-0.98], p = .046). Lower angiopoietin-1 levels remained a significant predictor of 28-day mortality in a multiple logistic regression model (adjusted odds ratio of 0.282 [95% confidence interval of 0.086-0.93], p = .037). Analysis of serial data using linear mixed models confirmed that sepsis survivors had higher levels of angiopoietin-1 (p = .012) and lower daily levels of angiopoietin-2 (p = .022) than nonsurvivors. Furthermore, survivors had higher peak angiopoietin-1 levels (median 13 vs. 10 ng/mL, p = .019) and lower nadir angiopoietin-2 levels (median 2.8 vs. 6.2 ng/mL, p = .013) than nonsurvivors. A score incorporating angiopoietin-1 and angiopoietin-2 and three other markers of endothelial activation discriminated with high accuracy between fatal and nonfatal cases (c-index of 0.80 [95% confidence interval of 0.69-0.90], p < .001). Plasma levels of angiopoietin-2 correlated with clinical markers of organ dysfunction and molecular markers of endothelial cell activation. CONCLUSIONS: Angiopoietin-1 levels at admission and both angiopoietin-1 and angiopoietin-2 levels measured serially correlated with 28-day mortality in severe sepsis. Angiopoietin-2 levels also correlated with organ dysfunction/injury and a validated clinical sepsis score. These results suggest the use of angiopoietins as clinically informative biomarkers of disease severity and patient outcome in severe sepsis.

The role of toll-like receptors in acute and chronic lung inflammation.

By virtue of its direct contact with the environment, the lung is constantly challenged by infectious and non-infectious stimuli that necessitate a robust yet highly controlled host response coordinated by the innate and adaptive arms of the immune system. Mammalian Toll-like receptors (TLRs) function as crucial sentinels of microbial and non-infectious antigens throughout the respiratory tract and mediate host innate immunity. Selective induction of inflammatory responses to harmful environmental exposures and tolerance to innocuous antigens are required to maintain tissue homeostasis and integrity. Conversely, dysregulated innate immune responses manifest as sustained and self-perpetuating tissue damage rather than controlled tissue repair. In this article we review aspects of Toll-like receptor function that are relevant to the development of acute lung injury and chronic obstructive lung diseases as well as resistance to frequently associated microbial infections.

Whole blood angiopoietin-1 and -2 levels discriminate cerebral and severe (non-cerebral) malaria from uncomplicated malaria.

BACKGROUND: Severe and cerebral malaria are associated with endothelial activation. Angiopoietin-1 (ANG-1) and angiopoietin-2 (ANG-2) are major regulators of endothelial activation and integrity. The aim of this study was to investigate the clinical utility of whole blood angiopoietin (ANG) levels as biomarkers of disease severity in Plasmodium falciparum malaria. METHODS: The utility of whole blood ANG levels was examined in Thai patients to distinguish cerebral (CM; n = 87) and severe (non-cerebral) malaria (SM; n = 36) from uncomplicated malaria (UM; n = 70). Comparative statistics are reported using a non-parametric univariate analysis (Kruskal-Wallis test or Chi-squared test, as appropriate). Multivariate binary logistic regression was used to examine differences in whole blood protein levels between groups (UM, SM, CM), adjusting for differences due to ethnicity, age, parasitaemia and sex. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was used to assess the diagnostic accuracy of the ANGs in their ability to distinguish between UM, SM and CM. Cumulative organ injury scores were obtained for patients with severe disease based on the presence of acute renal failure, jaundice, severe anaemia, circulatory collapse or coma. RESULTS: ANG-1 and ANG-2 were readily detectable in whole blood. Compared to UM there were significant decreases in ANG-1 (p < 0.001) and significant increases in ANG-2 (p < 0.001) levels and the ratio of ANG-2: ANG-1 (p < 0.001) observed in patients with SM and CM. This effect was independent of covariates (ethnicity, age, parasitaemia, sex). Further, there was a significant decrease in ANG-1 levels in patients with SM (non-cerebral) versus CM (p < 0.001). In participants with severe disease, ANG-2, but not ANG-1, levels correlated with cumulative organ injury scores; however, ANG-1 correlated with the presence of renal dysfunction and coma. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis demonstrated that the level of ANG-1, the level of ANG-2 or the ratio of ANG-2: ANG-1 discriminated between individuals with UM and SM (area under the curve, p-value: ANG-2, 0.763, p < 0.001; ANG-1, 0.884, p < 0.001; Ratio, 0.857, p < 0.001) or UM and CM (area under the curve, p-value: ANG-2, 0.772, p < 0.001; ANG-1, 0.778, p < 0.001; Ratio, 0.820, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that whole blood ANG-1/2 levels are promising clinically informative biomarkers of disease severity in malarial syndromes.

Serum angiopoietin-1 and -2 levels discriminate cerebral malaria from uncomplicated malaria and predict clinical outcome in African children.

BACKGROUND: Limited tools exist to identify which individuals infected with Plasmodium falciparum are at risk of developing serious complications such as cerebral malaria (CM). The objective of this study was to assess serum biomarkers that differentiate between CM and non-CM, with the long-term goal of developing a clinically informative prognostic test for severe malaria. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Based on the hypothesis that endothelial activation and blood-brain-barrier dysfunction contribute to CM pathogenesis, we examined the endothelial regulators, angiopoietin-1 (ANG-1) and angiopoietin-2 (ANG-2), in serum samples from P. falciparum-infected patients with uncomplicated malaria (UM) or CM, from two diverse populations--Thai adults and Ugandan children. Angiopoietin levels were compared to tumour necrosis factor (TNF). In both populations, ANG-1 levels were significantly decreased and ANG-2 levels were significantly increased in CM versus UM and healthy controls (p<0.001). TNF was significantly elevated in CM in the Thai adult population (p<0.001), but did not discriminate well between CM and UM in African children. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that ANG-1 and the ratio of ANG-2:ANG-1 accurately discriminated CM patients from UM in both populations. Applied as a diagnostic test, ANG-1 had a sensitivity and specificity of 100% for distinguishing CM from UM in Thai adults and 70% and 75%, respectively, for Ugandan children. Across both populations the likelihood ratio of CM given a positive test (ANG-1<15 ng/mL) was 4.1 (2.7-6.5) and the likelihood ratio of CM given a negative test was 0.29 (0.20-0.42). Moreover, low ANG-1 levels at presentation predicted subsequent mortality in children with CM (p = 0.027). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: ANG-1 and the ANG-2/1 ratio are promising clinically informative biomarkers for CM. Additional studies should address their utility as prognostic biomarkers and potential therapeutic targets in severe malaria.

Convergence of quantum dot barcodes with microfluidics and signal processing for multiplexed high-throughput infectious disease diagnostics.

Through the convergence of nano- and microtechnologies (quantum dots and microfluidics), we have created a diagnostic system capable of multiplexed, high-throughput analysis of infectious agents in human serum samples. We demonstrate, as a proof-of-concept, the ability to detect serum biomarkers of the most globally prevalent blood-borne infectious diseases (i.e., hepatitis B, hepatitis C, and HIV) with low sample volume (<100 microL), rapidity (<1 h), and 50 times greater sensitivity than that of currently available FDA-approved methods. We further show precision for detecting multiple biomarkers simultaneously in serum with minimal cross-reactivity. This device could be further developed into a portable handheld point-of-care diagnostic system, which would represent a major advance in detecting, monitoring, treating, and preventing infectious disease spread in the developed and developing worlds.