Risks and impacts of thromboembolism in patients with pancreatic cancer.

INTRODUCTION: Patients with pancreatic cancer have a high risk of thromboembolism (TE), which may increase mortality. Most relevant studies have been conducted in Western populations. We investigated risk factors for TE in a predominantly Chinese population of patients with pancreatic cancer, along with effects of TE on overall survival. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included patients diagnosed with exocrine pancreatic cancer in Prince of Wales Hospital in Hong Kong between 2010 and 2015. Data regarding patient demographics, World Health Organization performance status, stage, treatment, TE-related information, and time of death (if applicable) were retrieved from electronic medical records. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to identify risk factors for TE. Survival analyses were performed using Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox proportional hazards regression. RESULTS: In total, 365 patients were included in the study. The overall incidence of TE (14.8%) was lower than in Western populations. In univariate logistic regression analysis, stage IV disease and non-head pancreatic cancer were significantly associated with TE (both P=0.01). Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that stage IV disease was a significant risk factor (odds ratio=1.08, 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.00-1.17; P=0.046). Median overall survival did not significantly differ between patients with and without TE (4.88 months vs 7.80 months, hazard ratio=1.08, 95% CI=0.80-1.49; P=0.58) and between patients with TE who received anticoagulation treatment or not (5.63 months vs 4.77 months, hazard ratio=0.72, 95% CI=0.40-1.29; P=0.27). CONCLUSION: The incidence of TE was low in our Chinese cohort. Stage IV disease increased the risk of TE. Overall survival was not affected by TE or its treatment.

Integrating postradiotherapy plasma Epstein-Barr virus DNA and TNM stage for risk stratification of nasopharyngeal carcinoma to adjuvant therapy.

BACKGROUND: After curative radiotherapy (RT) or chemoradiation (CRT), there is no validated tool to accurately identify patients for adjuvant therapy in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). Post-RT circulating plasma Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) DNA can detect minimal residual disease and is associated with recurrence and survival independent of TNM (tumor-lymph node-metastasis) stage. We aimed to develop and validate a risk model for stratification of NPC patients after completion of RT/CRT to observation or adjuvant therapy. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The prospective multicenter 0502 EBV DNA screening cohort (Hong Kong NPC Study Group 0502 trial) enrolled from 2006 to 2015 (n = 745) was used for model development. For internal validation, we pooled independent patient cohorts from prospective clinical studies enrolled from 1997 to 2006 (n = 340). For external validation, we used retrospective cohort of NPC patients treated at Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center from 2009 to 2012 (n = 837). Eligible patients had histologically confirmed NPC of Union for International Cancer Control (UICC) 7th Edition stage II-IVB who completed curative RT/CRT with or without neoadjuvant chemotherapy, had post-RT EBV DNA tested within 120 days after RT and received no adjuvant therapy. The primary end point was overall survival (OS). We used recursive-partitioning analysis (RPA) to classify patients into groups of low, intermediate, and high risk of death. RESULTS: Combining post-RT EBV DNA level (0, 1-49, 50-499, and ≥500 copies/ml) and TNM stage (II, III, IVAB), RPA model classified patients into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups with 5-year OS of 89.4%, 78.5% and 37.2%, respectively. The RPA low-risk group had comparable OS to TNM stage II (5-year OS 88.5%) but identified more patients (64.8% versus stage II 28.1%) that could potentially be spared adjuvant therapy toxicity. The RPA model (c-index 0.712) showed better risk discrimination than either the TNM stage (0.604) or post-RT EBV DNA alone (0.675) with improved calibration and consistence. These results were validated in both internal and external cohorts. CONCLUSION: Combining post-RT EBV DNA and TNM stage improved risk stratification in NPC.