Validation of the Decipher Test for predicting adverse pathology in candidates for prostate cancer active surveillance.

ABSTACT: BACKGROUND: Many men diagnosed with prostate cancer are active surveillance (AS) candidates. However, AS may be associated with increased risk of disease progression and metastasis due to delayed therapy. Genomic classifiers, e.g., Decipher, may allow better risk-stratify newly diagnosed prostate cancers for AS. METHODS: Decipher was initially assessed in a prospective cohort of prostatectomies to explore the correlation with clinically meaningful biologic characteristics and then assessed in diagnostic biopsies from a retrospective multicenter cohort of 266 men with National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) very low/low and favorable-intermediate risk prostate cancer. Decipher and Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment (CAPRA) were compared as predictors of adverse pathology (AP) for which there is universal agreement that patients with long life-expectancy are not suitable candidates for AS (primary pattern 4 or 5, advanced local stage [pT3b or greater] or lymph node involvement). RESULTS: Decipher from prostatectomies was significantly associated with adverse pathologic features (p-values < 0.001). Decipher from the 266 diagnostic biopsies (64.7% NCCN-very-low/low and 35.3% favorable-intermediate) was an independent predictor of AP (odds ratio 1.29 per 10% increase, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03-1.61, p-value 0.025) when adjusting for CAPRA. CAPRA area under curve (AUC) was 0.57, (95% CI 0.47-0.68). Adding Decipher to CAPRA increased the AUC to 0.65 (95% CI 0.58-0.70). NPV, which determines the degree of confidence in the absence of AP for patients, was 91% (95% CI 87-94%) and 96% (95% CI 90-99%) for Decipher thresholds of 0.45 and 0.2, respectively. Using a threshold of 0.2, Decipher was a significant predictor of AP when adjusting for CAPRA (p-value 0.016). CONCLUSION: Decipher can be applied to prostate biopsies from NCCN-very-low/low and favorable-intermediate risk patients to predict absence of adverse pathologic features. These patients are predicted to be good candidates for active surveillance.

Development and Validation of a Novel Integrated Clinical-Genomic Risk Group Classification for Localized Prostate Cancer.

Purpose It is clinically challenging to integrate genomic-classifier results that report a numeric risk of recurrence into treatment recommendations for localized prostate cancer, which are founded in the framework of risk groups. We aimed to develop a novel clinical-genomic risk grouping system that can readily be incorporated into treatment guidelines for localized prostate cancer. Materials and Methods Two multicenter cohorts (n = 991) were used for training and validation of the clinical-genomic risk groups, and two additional cohorts (n = 5,937) were used for reclassification analyses. Competing risks analysis was used to estimate the risk of distant metastasis. Time-dependent c-indices were constructed to compare clinicopathologic risk models with the clinical-genomic risk groups. Results With a median follow-up of 8 years for patients in the training cohort, 10-year distant metastasis rates for National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) low, favorable-intermediate, unfavorable-intermediate, and high-risk were 7.3%, 9.2%, 38.0%, and 39.5%, respectively. In contrast, the three-tier clinical-genomic risk groups had 10-year distant metastasis rates of 3.5%, 29.4%, and 54.6%, for low-, intermediate-, and high-risk, respectively, which were consistent in the validation cohort (0%, 25.9%, and 55.2%, respectively). C-indices for the clinical-genomic risk grouping system (0.84; 95% CI, 0.61 to 0.93) were improved over NCCN (0.73; 95% CI, 0.60 to 0.86) and Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment (0.74; 95% CI, 0.65 to 0.84), and 30% of patients using NCCN low/intermediate/high would be reclassified by the new three-tier system and 67% of patients would be reclassified from NCCN six-tier (very-low- to very-high-risk) by the new six-tier system. Conclusion A commercially available genomic classifier in combination with standard clinicopathologic variables can generate a simple-to-use clinical-genomic risk grouping that more accurately identifies patients at low, intermediate, and high risk for metastasis and can be easily incorporated into current guidelines to better risk-stratify patients.

Low PCA3 expression is a marker of poor differentiation in localized prostate tumors: exploratory analysis from 12,076 patients.

BACKGROUND: Prostate cancer antigen 3 (PCA3) is a prostate cancer diagnostic biomarker that has been clinically validated. The limitations of the diagnostic role of PCA3 in initial biopsy and the prognostic role are not well established. Here, we elucidate the limitations of tissue PCA3 to predict high grade tumors in initial biopsy. RESULTS: PCA3 has a bimodal distribution in both biopsy and radical prostatectomy (RP) tissues, where low PCA3 expression was significantly associated with high grade disease (p<0.001). PCA3 had a poor performance of predicting high grade disease in initial biopsy (GS≥8) with 55% sensitivity and high false negative rates; 42% of high Gleason (≥8) samples had low PCA3. In RP, low PCA3 is associated with adverse pathological features, clinical recurrence outcome and greater probability of metastatic progression (p<0.001). MATERIALS AND METHODS: A total of 1,694 expression profiles from biopsy and 10,382 from RP patients with high risk tumors were obtained from the Decipher Genomic Resource Information Database (GRIDTM)prostate cancer database. The primary clinical endpoint was distant metastasis-free survival for RP and high Gleason grade for biopsy. Logistic regression analyses and Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate the association of PCA3 with clinical variables and risk of metastasis. CONCLUSIONS: There is high prevalence of high grade tumors with low PCA3 expression in the biopsy setting. Therefore, urologists should be warned that using PCA3 as stand-alone test may lead to high rate of under-diagnosis of high grade disease in initial biopsy setting.

Ability of a Genomic Classifier to Predict Metastasis and Prostate Cancer-specific Mortality after Radiation or Surgery based on Needle Biopsy Specimens.

BACKGROUND: Decipher is a validated genomic classifier developed to determine the biological potential for metastasis after radical prostatectomy (RP). OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the ability of biopsy Decipher to predict metastasis and Prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM) in primarily intermediate- to high-risk patients treated with RP or radiation therapy (RT). DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Two hundred and thirty-five patients treated with either RP (n=105) or RT±androgen deprivation therapy (n=130) with available genomic expression profiles generated from diagnostic biopsy specimens from seven tertiary referral centers. The highest-grade core was sampled and Decipher was calculated based on a locked random forest model. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Metastasis and PCSM were the primary and secondary outcomes of the study, respectively. Cox analysis and c-index were used to evaluate the performance of Decipher. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: With a median follow-up of 6 yr among censored patients, 34 patients developed metastases and 11 died of prostate cancer. On multivariable analysis, biopsy Decipher remained a significant predictor of metastasis (hazard ratio: 1.37 per 10% increase in score, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.06-1.78, p=0.018) after adjusting for clinical variables. For predicting metastasis 5-yr post-biopsy, Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment score had a c-index of 0.60 (95% CI: 0.50-0.69), while Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment plus biopsy Decipher had a c-index of 0.71 (95% CI: 0.60-0.82). National Comprehensive Cancer Network risk group had a c-index of 0.66 (95% CI: 0.53-0.77), while National Comprehensive Cancer Network plus biopsy Decipher had a c-index of 0.74 (95% CI: 0.66-0.82). Biopsy Decipher was a significant predictor of PCSM (hazard ratio: 1.57 per 10% increase in score, 95% CI: 1.03-2.48, p=0.037), with a 5-yr PCSM rate of 0%, 0%, and 9.4% for Decipher low, intermediate, and high, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Biopsy Decipher predicted metastasis and PCSM from diagnostic biopsy specimens of primarily intermediate- and high-risk men treated with first-line RT or RP. PATIENT SUMMARY: Biopsy Decipher predicted metastasis and prostate cancer-specific mortality risk from diagnostic biopsy specimens.

Impact of Molecular Subtypes in Muscle-invasive Bladder Cancer on Predicting Response and Survival after Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy.

BACKGROUND: An early report on the molecular subtyping of muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC) by gene expression suggested that response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) varies by subtype. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the ability of molecular subtypes to predict pathological downstaging and survival after NAC. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Whole transcriptome profiling was performed on pre-NAC transurethral resection specimens from 343 patients with MIBC. Samples were classified according to four published molecular subtyping methods. We developed a single-sample genomic subtyping classifier (GSC) to predict consensus subtypes (claudin-low, basal, luminal-infiltrated and luminal) with highest clinical impact in the context of NAC. Overall survival (OS) according to subtype was analyzed and compared with OS in 476 non-NAC cases (published datasets). INTERVENTION: Gene expression analysis was used to assign subtypes. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Receiver-operating characteristics were used to determine the accuracy of GSC. The effect of GSC on survival was estimated by Cox proportional hazard regression models. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: The models generated subtype calls in expected ratios with high concordance across subtyping methods. GSC was able to predict four consensus molecular subtypes with high accuracy (73%), and clinical significance of the predicted consensus subtypes could be validated in independent NAC and non-NAC datasets. Luminal tumors had the best OS with and without NAC. Claudin-low tumors were associated with poor OS irrespective of treatment regimen. Basal tumors showed the most improvement in OS with NAC compared with surgery alone. The main limitations of our study are its retrospective design and comparison across datasets. CONCLUSIONS: Molecular subtyping may have an impact on patient benefit to NAC. If validated in additional studies, our results suggest that patients with basal tumors should be prioritized for NAC. We discovered the first single-sample classifier to subtype MIBC, which may be suitable for integration into routine clinical practice. PATIENT SUMMARY: Different molecular subtypes can be identified in muscle-invasive bladder cancer. Although cisplatin-based neoadjuvant chemotherapy improves patient outcomes, we identified that the benefit is highest in patients with basal tumors. Our newly discovered classifier can identify these molecular subtypes in a single patient and could be integrated into routine clinical practice after further validation.

Comprehensive Determination of Prostate Tumor ETS Gene Status in Clinical Samples Using the CLIA Decipher Assay.

ETS family gene fusions are common in prostate cancer and molecularly define a tumor subset. ERG is the most commonly rearranged, leading to its overexpression, followed by ETV1, ETV4, and ETV5, and these alterations are generally mutually exclusive. We validated the Decipher prostate cancer assay to detect ETS alterations in a Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments-accredited laboratory. Benchmarking against ERG immunohistochemistry and ETV1/4/5 RNA in situ hybridization, we examined the accuracy, precision, and reproducibility of gene expression ETS models using formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded samples. The m-ERG model achieved an area under curve of 95%, with 93% sensitivity and 98% specificity to predict ERG immunohistochemistry status. The m-ETV1, -ETV4, and -ETV5 models achieved areas under curve of 98%, 88%, and 99%, respectively. The models had 100% robustness for ETS status, and scores were highly correlated across sample replicates. Models predicted 41.5% of a prospective radical prostatectomy cohort (n = 4036) to be ERG+, 6.3% ETV1+, 1% ETV4+, and 0.4% ETV5+. Of prostate tumor biopsy samples (n = 509), 41.2% were ERG+, 8.6% ETV1+, 0.4% ETV4+, and none ETV5+. Higher Decipher risk status tumors were more likely to be ETS+ (ERG or ETV1/4/5) in the radical prostatectomy and the biopsy cohorts (P < 0.05). These results support the utility of microarray-based ETS status prediction models for molecular classification of prostate tumors.

Individual Patient-Level Meta-Analysis of the Performance of the Decipher Genomic Classifier in High-Risk Men After Prostatectomy to Predict Development of Metastatic Disease.

Purpose To perform the first meta-analysis of the performance of the genomic classifier test, Decipher, in men with prostate cancer postprostatectomy. Methods MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Decipher genomic resource information database were searched for published reports between 2011 and 2016 of men treated by prostatectomy that assessed the benefit of the Decipher test. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models fit to individual patient data were performed; meta-analyses were conducted by pooling the study-specific hazard ratios (HRs) using random-effects modeling. Extent of heterogeneity between studies was determined with the I2 test. Results Five studies (975 total patients, and 855 patients with individual patient-level data) were eligible for analysis, with a median follow-up of 8 years. Of the total cohort, 60.9%, 22.6%, and 16.5% of patients were classified by Decipher as low, intermediate, and high risk, respectively. The 10-year cumulative incidence metastases rates were 5.5%, 15.0%, and 26.7% ( P < .001), respectively, for the three risk classifications. Pooling the study-specific Decipher HRs across the five studies resulted in an HR of 1.52 (95% CI, 1.39 to 1.67; I2 = 0%) per 0.1 unit. In multivariable analysis of individual patient data, adjusting for clinicopathologic variables, Decipher remained a statistically significant predictor of metastasis (HR, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.14 to 1.47; P < .001) per 0.1 unit. The C-index for 10-year distant metastasis of the clinical model alone was 0.76; this increased to 0.81 with inclusion of Decipher. Conclusion The genomic classifier test, Decipher, can independently improve prognostication of patients postprostatectomy, as well as within nearly all clinicopathologic, demographic, and treatment subgroups. Future study of how to best incorporate genomic testing in clinical decision-making and subsequent treatment recommendations is warranted.

Potential Impact on Clinical Decision Making via a Genome-Wide Expression Profiling: A Case Report.

Management of men with prostate cancer is fraught with uncertainty as physicians and patients balance efficacy with potential toxicity and diminished quality of life. Utilization of genomics as a prognostic biomarker has improved the informed decision-making process by enabling more rationale treatment choices. Recently investigations have begun to determine whether genomic information from tumor transcriptome data can be used to impact clinical decision-making beyond prognosis. Here we discuss the potential of genomics to alter management of a patient who presented with high-risk prostate adenocarcinoma. We suggest that this information help selecting patients for advanced imaging, chemotherapies, or clinical trial.

Association of multiparametric MRI quantitative imaging features with prostate cancer gene expression in MRI-targeted prostate biopsies.

Standard clinicopathological variables are inadequate for optimal management of prostate cancer patients. While genomic classifiers have improved patient risk classification, the multifocality and heterogeneity of prostate cancer can confound pre-treatment assessment. The objective was to investigate the association of multiparametric (mp)MRI quantitative features with prostate cancer risk gene expression profiles in mpMRI-guided biopsies tissues.Global gene expression profiles were generated from 17 mpMRI-directed diagnostic prostate biopsies using an Affimetrix platform. Spatially distinct imaging areas ('habitats') were identified on MRI/3D-Ultrasound fusion. Radiomic features were extracted from biopsy regions and normal appearing tissues. We correlated 49 radiomic features with three clinically available gene signatures associated with adverse outcome. The signatures contain genes that are over-expressed in aggressive prostate cancers and genes that are under-expressed in aggressive prostate cancers. There were significant correlations between these genes and quantitative imaging features, indicating the presence of prostate cancer prognostic signal in the radiomic features. Strong associations were also found between the radiomic features and significantly expressed genes. Gene ontology analysis identified specific radiomic features associated with immune/inflammatory response, metabolism, cell and biological adhesion. To our knowledge, this is the first study to correlate radiogenomic parameters with prostate cancer in men with MRI-guided biopsy.

Prediction of Lymph Node Metastasis in Patients with Bladder Cancer Using Whole Transcriptome Gene Expression Signatures.

PURPOSE: Clinical staging in patients with muscle invasive bladder cancer misses up to 25% of lymph node metastasis. These patients are at high risk for disease recurrence and improved clinical staging is critical to guide management. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Whole transcriptome expression profiles were generated in 199 patients who underwent radical cystectomy and extended pelvic lymph node dissection. The cohort was divided randomly into a discovery set of 133 patients and a validation set of 66. In the discovery set features were identified and modeled in a KNN51 (K-nearest neighbor classifier 51) to predict pathological lymph node metastases. Two previously described bladder cancer gene signatures, including RF15 (15-gene cancer recurrence signature) and LN20 (20-gene lymph node signature), were also modeled in the discovery set for comparison. The AUC and the OR were used to compare the performance of these signatures. RESULTS: In the validation set KNN51 achieved an AUC of 0.82 (range 0.71-0.93) to predict lymph node positive cases. It significantly outperformed RF15 and LN20, which had an AUC of 0.62 (range 0.47-0.76) and 0.46 (range 0.32-0.60), respectively. Only KNN51 showed significant odds of predicting LN metastasis with an OR of 2.65 (range 1.68-4.67) for every 10% increase in score (p <0.001). RF15 and LN20 had a nonsignificant OR of 1.21 (range 0.97-1.54) and 1.39 (range 0.52-3.77), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The new KNN51 signature was superior to previously described gene signatures for predicting lymph node metastasis. If validated prospectively in transurethral resection of bladder tumor samples, KNN51 could be used to guide patients at high risk to early multimodal therapy.

Application of a Clinical Whole-Transcriptome Assay for Staging and Prognosis of Prostate Cancer Diagnosed in Needle Core Biopsy Specimens.

Molecular and genomic analysis of microscopic quantities of tumor from formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded biopsy specimens has many unique challenges. Herein, we evaluated the feasibility of obtaining transcriptome-wide RNA expression to measure prognostic classifiers in diagnostic prostate needle core biopsy specimens. One-hundred fifty-eight samples from diagnostic needle core biopsy specimens (BX) and radical prostatectomies (RPs) were collected from 33 patients at three hospitals; each patient provided up to six tumor and benign samples. Genome-wide transcriptomic profiles were generated using Affymetrix Human Exon arrays for comparison of gene expression alterations and prognostic signatures between the BX and RP samples. A sufficient amount of RNA (>100 ng) was obtained from all RP specimens (n = 77) and from 72 of 81 of BX specimens. Of transcriptomic features detected in RP, 95% were detectable in BX tissues and demonstrated a high correlation (r = 0.96). Likewise, an expression signature pattern validated on RPs (Decipher prognostic test) showed correlation between BX and RP (r = 0.70). Of matched BX and RP pairs, 25% showed discordant molecular subtypes. Genome-wide exon arrays yielded data of comparable quality from biopsy and RP tissues. The high concordance of tumor-associated gene expression changes between BX and RP samples provides evidence for the adequate performance of the assay platform with samples from prostate needle biopsy specimens with limited tumor volume.

Utilization of a Genomic Classifier for Prediction of Metastasis Following Salvage Radiation Therapy after Radical Prostatectomy.

BACKGROUND: Despite salvage radiation therapy (SRT) for recurrent prostate cancer (PCa) after radical prostatectomy (RP), some patients still progress to metastases. Identifying these men would allow them to undergo systemic therapy including testing novel therapies to reduce metastases risk. OBJECTIVE: To test whether the genomic classifier (GC) predicts development of metastatic disease. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Retrospective multi-center and multi-ethnic cohort study from two academic centers and one Veterans Affairs Medical Center in the United States involving 170 men receiving SRT for recurrent PCa post-RP. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Time from SRT to development of metastatic disease tested using Cox regression, survival c-index, and decision curve analysis. Performance of GC was compared to the Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment Score and Briganti risk models based on these metrics. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: With a median 5.7 yr follow-up after SRT, 20 patients (12%) developed metastases. On multivariable analysis, for each 0.1 unit increase in GC (scaled from 0 to 1), the hazard ratio for metastasis was 1.58 (95% confidence interval 1.16-2.17; p=0.002). Adjusting for androgen deprivation therapy did not materially change the results. The c-index for GC was 0.85 (95% confidence interval 0.73-0.88) versus 0.63-0.65 for published clinico-pathologic risk models. The 5-yr cumulative incidence of metastasis post-SRT in patients with low, intermediate, and high GC scores was 2.7%, 8.4%, and 33.1%, respectively (p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: While validation in larger, prospectively collected cohorts is required, these data suggest GC is a strong predictor of metastases among men receiving SRT for recurrent PCa post-RP, accurately identifying men who are excellent candidates for systemic therapy due to their very high-risk of metastases. PATIENT SUMMARY: Genomic classifier and two clinico-pathologic risk models were evaluated on their ability to predict metastases among men receiving salvage radiation therapy for recurrent prostate cancer. Genomic classifier was able to identify candidates for further therapies due to their very high-risk of metastases.

Decipher Genomic Classifier Measured on Prostate Biopsy Predicts Metastasis Risk.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the ability of the Decipher genomic classifier in predicting metastasis from analysis of prostate needle biopsy diagnostic tumor tissue specimens. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Fifty-seven patients with available biopsy specimens were identified from a cohort of 169 men treated with radical prostatectomy in a previously reported Decipher validation study at Cleveland Clinic. A Cox multivariable proportional hazards model and survival C-index were used to evaluate the performance of Decipher. RESULTS: With a median follow up of 8 years, 8 patients metastasized and 3 died of prostate cancer. The Decipher plus National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) model had an improved C-index of 0.88 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.77-0.96) compared to NCCN alone (C-index 0.75, 95% CI 0.64-0.87). On multivariable analysis, Decipher was the only significant predictor of metastasis when adjusting for age, preoperative prostate-specific antigen and biopsy Gleason score (Decipher hazard ratio per 10% increase 1.72, 95% CI 1.07-2.81, P = .02). CONCLUSION: Biopsy Decipher predicted the risk of metastasis at 10 years post radical prostatectomy. While further validation is required on larger cohorts, preoperative knowledge of Decipher risk derived from biopsy could indicate the need for multimodality therapy and help set patient expectations of therapeutic burden.

Tissue-based Genomics Augments Post-prostatectomy Risk Stratification in a Natural History Cohort of Intermediate- and High-Risk Men.

BACKGROUND: Radical prostatectomy (RP) is a primary treatment option for men with intermediate- and high-risk prostate cancer. Although many are effectively cured with local therapy alone, these men are by definition at higher risk of adverse pathologic features and clinical disease recurrence. It has been shown that the Decipher test predicts metastatic progression in cohorts that received adjuvant and salvage therapy following RP. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the Decipher genomic classifier in a natural history cohort of men at risk who received no additional treatment until the time of metastatic progression. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Retrospective case-cohort design for 356 men who underwent RP between 1992 and 2010 at intermediate or high risk and received no additional treatment until the time of metastasis. Participants met the following criteria: (1) Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment postsurgical (CAPRA-S) score ≥3; (2) pathologic Gleason score ≥7; and (3) post-RP prostate-specific antigen nadir <0.2 ng/ml. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: The primary endpoint was defined as regional or distant metastases. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, extension of decision curve analysis to survival data, and univariable and multivariable Cox proportional-hazards models were used to measure the discrimination, net benefit, and prognostic potential of genomic and pathologic risk factors. Cumulative incidence curves were constructed using Fine-Gray competing-risks analysis with appropriate weighting of the controls to account for the case-cohort study design. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: Ninety six patients had unavailable tumor blocks or failed microarray quality control. Decipher scores were then obtained for 260 patients, of whom 99 experienced metastasis. Decipher correlated with increased cumulative incidence of biochemical recurrence, metastasis, and prostate cancer-specific mortality (p<0.01). The cumulative incidence of metastasis was 12% and 47% for patients with low and high Decipher scores, respectively, at 10 yr after RP. Decipher was independently prognostic of metastasis in multivariable analysis (hazard ratio 1.26 per 10% increase; p<0.01). Decipher had a c-index of 0.76 and increased the c-index of Eggener and CAPRA-S risk models from 0.76 and 0.77 to 0.86 and 0.87, respectively, at 10 yr after RP. Although the cohort was large, the single-center retrospective design is an important limitation. CONCLUSIONS: In a patient population that received no adjuvant or salvage therapy after prostatectomy until metastatic progression, higher Decipher scores correlated with clinical events, and inclusion of Decipher scores improved the prognostic performance of validated clinicopathologic risk models. These results confirm the utility already reported for Decipher. PATIENT SUMMARY: The Decipher test improves identification of patients most at risk of metastatic progression and death from prostate cancer after radical prostatectomy.

Tumour genomic and microenvironmental heterogeneity for integrated prediction of 5-year biochemical recurrence of prostate cancer: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Clinical prognostic groupings for localised prostate cancers are imprecise, with 30-50% of patients recurring after image-guided radiotherapy or radical prostatectomy. We aimed to test combined genomic and microenvironmental indices in prostate cancer to improve risk stratification and complement clinical prognostic factors. METHODS: We used DNA-based indices alone or in combination with intra-prostatic hypoxia measurements to develop four prognostic indices in 126 low-risk to intermediate-risk patients (Toronto cohort) who will receive image-guided radiotherapy. We validated these indices in two independent cohorts of 154 (Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center cohort [MSKCC] cohort) and 117 (Cambridge cohort) radical prostatectomy specimens from low-risk to high-risk patients. We applied unsupervised and supervised machine learning techniques to the copy-number profiles of 126 pre-image-guided radiotherapy diagnostic biopsies to develop prognostic signatures. Our primary endpoint was the development of a set of prognostic measures capable of stratifying patients for risk of biochemical relapse 5 years after primary treatment. FINDINGS: Biochemical relapse was associated with indices of tumour hypoxia, genomic instability, and genomic subtypes based on multivariate analyses. We identified four genomic subtypes for prostate cancer, which had different 5-year biochemical relapse-free survival. Genomic instability is prognostic for relapse in both image-guided radiotherapy (multivariate analysis hazard ratio [HR] 4·5 [95% CI 2·1-9·8]; p=0·00013; area under the receiver operator curve [AUC] 0·70 [95% CI 0·65-0·76]) and radical prostatectomy (4·0 [1·6-9·7]; p=0·0024; AUC 0·57 [0·52-0·61]) patients with prostate cancer, and its effect is magnified by intratumoral hypoxia (3·8 [1·2-12]; p=0·019; AUC 0·67 [0·61-0·73]). A novel 100-loci DNA signature accurately classified treatment outcome in the MSKCC low-risk to intermediate-risk cohort (multivariate analysis HR 6·1 [95% CI 2·0-19]; p=0·0015; AUC 0·74 [95% CI 0·65-0·83]). In the independent MSKCC and Cambridge cohorts, this signature identified low-risk to high-risk patients who were most likely to fail treatment within 18 months (combined cohorts multivariate analysis HR 2·9 [95% CI 1·4-6·0]; p=0·0039; AUC 0·68 [95% CI 0·63-0·73]), and was better at predicting biochemical relapse than 23 previously published RNA signatures. INTERPRETATION: This is the first study of cancer outcome to integrate DNA-based and microenvironment-based failure indices to predict patient outcome. Patients exhibiting these aggressive features after biopsy should be entered into treatment intensification trials. FUNDING: Movember Foundation, Prostate Cancer Canada, Ontario Institute for Cancer Research, Canadian Institute for Health Research, NIHR Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre, The University of Cambridge, Cancer Research UK, Cambridge Cancer Charity, Prostate Cancer UK, Hutchison Whampoa Limited, Terry Fox Research Institute, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre Foundation, PMH-Radiation Medicine Program Academic Enrichment Fund, Motorcycle Ride for Dad (Durham), Canadian Cancer Society.

Discovery and validation of novel expression signature for postcystectomy recurrence in high-risk bladder cancer.

BACKGROUND: Nearly half of muscle-invasive bladder cancer patients succumb to their disease following cystectomy. Selecting candidates for adjuvant therapy is currently based on clinical parameters with limited predictive power. This study aimed to develop and validate genomic-based signatures that can better identify patients at risk for recurrence than clinical models alone. METHODS: Transcriptome-wide expression profiles were generated using 1.4 million feature-arrays on archival tumors from 225 patients who underwent radical cystectomy and had muscle-invasive and/or node-positive bladder cancer. Genomic (GC) and clinical (CC) classifiers for predicting recurrence were developed on a discovery set (n = 133). Performances of GC, CC, an independent clinical nomogram (IBCNC), and genomic-clinicopathologic classifiers (G-CC, G-IBCNC) were assessed in the discovery and independent validation (n = 66) sets. GC was further validated on four external datasets (n = 341). Discrimination and prognostic abilities of classifiers were compared using area under receiver-operating characteristic curves (AUCs). All statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS: A 15-feature GC was developed on the discovery set with area under curve (AUC) of 0.77 in the validation set. This was higher than individual clinical variables, IBCNC (AUC = 0.73), and comparable to CC (AUC = 0.78). Performance was improved upon combining GC with clinical nomograms (G-IBCNC, AUC = 0.82; G-CC, AUC = 0.86). G-CC high-risk patients had elevated recurrence probabilities (P < .001), with GC being the best predictor by multivariable analysis (P = .005). Genomic-clinicopathologic classifiers outperformed clinical nomograms by decision curve and reclassification analyses. GC performed the best in validation compared with seven prior signatures. GC markers remained prognostic across four independent datasets. CONCLUSIONS: The validated genomic-based classifiers outperform clinical models for predicting postcystectomy bladder cancer recurrence. This may be used to better identify patients who need more aggressive management.

Spread of X-chromosome inactivation into autosomal sequences: role for DNA elements, chromatin features and chromosomal domains.

X-chromosome inactivation results in dosage equivalence between the X chromosome in males and females; however, over 15% of human X-linked genes escape silencing and these genes are enriched on the evolutionarily younger short arm of the X chromosome. The spread of inactivation onto translocated autosomal material allows the study of inactivation without the confounding evolutionary history of the X chromosome. The heterogeneity and reduced extent of silencing on autosomes are evidence for the importance of DNA elements underlying the spread of silencing. We have assessed DNA methylation in six unbalanced X-autosome translocations using the Illumina Infinium HumanMethylation450 array. Two to 42% of translocated autosomal genes showed this mark of silencing, with the highest degree of inactivation observed for trisomic autosomal regions. Generally, the extent of silencing was greatest close to the translocation breakpoint; however, silencing was detected well over 100 kb into the autosomal DNA. Alu elements were found to be enriched at autosomal genes that escaped from inactivation while L1s were enriched at subject genes. In cells without the translocation, there was enrichment of heterochromatic features such as EZH2 and H3K27me3 for those genes that become silenced when translocated, suggesting that underlying chromatin structure predisposes genes towards silencing. Additionally, the analysis of topological domains indicated physical clustering of autosomal genes of common inactivation status. Overall, our analysis indicated a complex interaction between DNA sequence, chromatin features and the three-dimensional structure of the chromosome.

Validation of a genomic classifier that predicts metastasis following radical prostatectomy in an at risk patient population.

PURPOSE: Patients with locally advanced prostate cancer after radical prostatectomy are candidates for secondary therapy. However, this higher risk population is heterogeneous. Many cases do not metastasize even when conservatively managed. Given the limited specificity of pathological features to predict metastasis, newer risk prediction models are needed. We report a validation study of a genomic classifier that predicts metastasis after radical prostatectomy in a high risk population. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A case-cohort design was used to sample 1,010 patients after radical prostatectomy at high risk for recurrence who were treated from 2000 to 2006. Patients had preoperative prostate specific antigen greater than 20 ng/ml, Gleason 8 or greater, pT3b or a Mayo Clinic nomogram score of 10 or greater. Patients with metastasis at diagnosis or any prior treatment for prostate cancer were excluded from analysis. A 20% random sampling created a subcohort that included all patients with metastasis. We generated 22-marker genomic classifier scores for 219 patients with available genomic data. ROC and decision curves, competing risk and weighted regression models were used to assess genomic classifier performance. RESULTS: The genomic classifier AUC was 0.79 for predicting 5-year metastasis after radical prostatectomy. Decision curves showed that the genomic classifier net benefit exceeded that of clinical only models. The genomic classifier was the predominant predictor of metastasis on multivariable analysis. The cumulative incidence of metastasis 5 years after radical prostatectomy was 2.4%, 6.0% and 22.5% in patients with low (60%), intermediate (21%) and high (19%) genomic classifier scores, respectively (p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Results indicate that genomic information from the primary tumor can identify patients with adverse pathological features who are most at risk for metastasis and potentially lethal prostate cancer.

Additional annotation enhances potential for biologically-relevant analysis of the Illumina Infinium HumanMethylation450 BeadChip array.

BACKGROUND: Measurement of genome-wide DNA methylation (DNAm) has become an important avenue for investigating potential physiologically-relevant epigenetic changes. Illumina Infinium (Illumina, San Diego, CA, USA) is a commercially available microarray suite used to measure DNAm at many sites throughout the genome. However, it has been suggested that a subset of array probes may give misleading results due to issues related to probe design. To facilitate biologically significant data interpretation, we set out to enhance probe annotation of the newest Infinium array, the HumanMethylation450 BeadChip (450 k), with >485,000 probes covering 99% of Reference Sequence (RefSeq) genes (National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI), Bethesda, MD, USA). Annotation that was added or expanded on includes: 1) documented SNPs in the probe target, 2) probe binding specificity, 3) CpG classification of target sites and 4) gene feature classification of target sites. RESULTS: Probes with documented SNPs at the target CpG (4.3% of probes) were associated with increased within-tissue variation in DNAm. An example of a probe with a SNP at the target CpG demonstrated how sample genotype can confound the measurement of DNAm. Additionally, 8.6% of probes mapped to multiple locations in silico. Measurements from these non-specific probes likely represent a combination of DNAm from multiple genomic sites. The expanded biological annotation demonstrated that based on DNAm, grouping probes by an alternative high-density and intermediate-density CpG island classification provided a distinctive pattern of DNAm. Finally, variable enrichment for differentially methylated probes was noted across CpG classes and gene feature groups, dependant on the tissues that were compared. CONCLUSION: DNAm arrays offer a high-throughput approach for which careful consideration of probe content should be utilized to better understand the biological processes affected. Probes containing SNPs and non-specific probes may affect the assessment of DNAm using the 450 k array. Additionally, probe classification by CpG enrichment classes and to a lesser extent gene feature groups resulted in distinct patterns of DNAm. Thus, we recommend that compromised probes be removed from analyses and that the genomic context of DNAm is considered in studies deciphering the biological meaning of Illumina 450 k array data.