In Hot Water: Current Thermal Threshold Methods Unlikely to Predict Invasive Species Shifts in NW Atlantic.

As global temperatures continue to rise, accurate predicted species distribution models will be important for forecasting the movement of range-shifting species. These predictions rely on measurements of organismal thermal tolerance, which can be measured using classical threshold concepts such as Arrhenius Break Temperatures and Critical Thermal Temperatures, or through ecologically relevant measurements-such as the temperature at which reproduction and growth occur. Many species, including invasive species, exhibit thermal plasticity, so these thresholds may change based on ambient temperature, life stage, and measurement techniques. Here, we review thermal thresholds for 15 invertebrate species invasive to the Gulf of Maine. The high degree of variability within a species and between applied conceptual frameworks suggests that modeling the future distribution of these species in all ecosystems, but especially in the rapidly warming Northwest Atlantic and Gulf of Maine, will be challenging. While each of these measurement techniques are valid, we suggest contextualization and integration of threshold measurements for accurate modeling.

How megadrought causes extensive mortality in a deep-rooted shrub species normally resistant to drought-induced dieback: The role of a biotic mortality agent.

Southern California experienced unprecedented megadrought between 2012 and 2018. During this time, Malosma laurina, a chaparral species normally resilient to single-year intense drought, developed extensive mortality exceeding 60% throughout low-elevation coastal populations of the Santa Monica Mountains. We assessed the physiological mechanisms by which the advent of megadrought predisposed M. laurina to extensive shoot dieback and whole-plant death. We found that hydraulic conductance of stem xylem (Ks, native ) was reduced seven to 11-fold in dieback adult and resprout branches, respectively. Staining of stem xylem vessels revealed that dieback plants experienced 68% solid-blockage, explaining the reduction in water transport. Following Koch's postulates, persistent isolation of a microorganism in stem xylem of dieback plants but not healthy controls indicated that the causative agent of xylem blockage was an opportunistic endophytic fungus, Botryosphaeria dothidea. We inoculated healthy M. laurina saplings with fungal isolates and compared hyphal elongation rates under well-watered, water-deficit, and carbon-deficit treatments. Relative to controls, we found that both water deficit and carbon-deficit increased hyphal extension rates and the incidence of shoot dieback.