Inference in Gaussian state-space models with mixed effects for multiple epidemic dynamics.

The estimation from available data of parameters governing epidemics is a major challenge. In addition to usual issues (data often incomplete and noisy), epidemics of the same nature may be observed in several places or over different periods. The resulting possible inter-epidemic variability is rarely explicitly considered. Here, we propose to tackle multiple epidemics through a unique model incorporating a stochastic representation for each epidemic and to jointly estimate its parameters from noisy and partial observations. By building on a previous work for prevalence data, a Gaussian state-space model is extended to a model with mixed effects on the parameters describing simultaneously several epidemics and their observation process. An appropriate inference method is developed, by coupling the SAEM algorithm with Kalman-type filtering. Moreover, we consider here incidence data, which requires to develop a new version of the filtering algorithm. Its performances are investigated on SIR simulated epidemics for prevalence and incidence data. Our method outperforms an inference method separately processing each dataset. An application to SEIR influenza outbreaks in France over several years using incidence data is also carried out. Parameter estimations highlight a non-negligible variability between influenza seasons, both in transmission and case reporting. The main contribution of our study is to rigorously and explicitly account for the inter-epidemic variability between multiple outbreaks, both from the viewpoint of modeling and inference with a parsimonious statistical model.

Approximation of epidemic models by diffusion processes and their statistical inference.

Multidimensional continuous-time Markov jump processes [Formula: see text] on [Formula: see text] form a usual set-up for modeling [Formula: see text]-like epidemics. However, when facing incomplete epidemic data, inference based on [Formula: see text] is not easy to be achieved. Here, we start building a new framework for the estimation of key parameters of epidemic models based on statistics of diffusion processes approximating [Formula: see text]. First, previous results on the approximation of density-dependent [Formula: see text]-like models by diffusion processes with small diffusion coefficient [Formula: see text], where [Formula: see text] is the population size, are generalized to non-autonomous systems. Second, our previous inference results on discretely observed diffusion processes with small diffusion coefficient are extended to time-dependent diffusions. Consistent and asymptotically Gaussian estimates are obtained for a fixed number [Formula: see text] of observations, which corresponds to the epidemic context, and for [Formula: see text]. A correction term, which yields better estimates non asymptotically, is also included. Finally, performances and robustness of our estimators with respect to various parameters such as [Formula: see text] (the basic reproduction number), [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text] are investigated on simulations. Two models, [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text], corresponding to single and recurrent outbreaks, respectively, are used to simulate data. The findings indicate that our estimators have good asymptotic properties and behave noticeably well for realistic numbers of observations and population sizes. This study lays the foundations of a generic inference method currently under extension to incompletely observed epidemic data. Indeed, contrary to the majority of current inference techniques for partially observed processes, which necessitates computer intensive simulations, our method being mostly an analytical approach requires only the classical optimization steps.

Nonlinear projection methods for visualizing Barcode data and application on two data sets.

Developing tools for visualizing DNA sequences is an important issue in the Barcoding context. Visualizing Barcode data can be put in a purely statistical context, unsupervised learning. Clustering methods combined with projection methods have two closely linked objectives, visualizing and finding structure in the data. Multidimensional scaling (MDS) and Self-organizing maps (SOM) are unsupervised statistical tools for data visualization. Both algorithms map data onto a lower dimensional manifold: MDS looks for a projection that best preserves pairwise distances while SOM preserves the topology of the data. Both algorithms were initially developed for Euclidean data and the conditions necessary to their good implementation were not satisfied for Barcode data. We developed a workflow consisting in four steps: collapse data into distinct sequences; compute a dissimilarity matrix; run a modified version of SOM for dissimilarity matrices to structure the data and reduce dimensionality; project the results using MDS. This methodology was applied to Astraptes fulgerator and Hylomyscus, an African rodent with debated taxonomy. We obtained very good results for both data sets. The results were robust against unbalanced species. All the species in Astraptes were well displayed in very distinct groups in the various visualizations, except for LOHAMP and FABOV that were mixed up. For Hylomyscus, our findings were consistent with known species, confirmed the existence of four unnamed taxa and suggested the existence of potentially new species.

Assessment of three mitochondrial genes (16S, Cytb, CO1) for identifying species in the Praomyini tribe (Rodentia: Muridae).

The Praomyini tribe is one of the most diverse and abundant groups of Old World rodents. Several species are known to be involved in crop damage and in the epidemiology of several human and cattle diseases. Due to the existence of sibling species their identification is often problematic. Thus an easy, fast and accurate species identification tool is needed for non-systematicians to correctly identify Praomyini species. In this study we compare the usefulness of three genes (16S, Cytb, CO1) for identifying species of this tribe. A total of 426 specimens representing 40 species (sampled across their geographical range) were sequenced for the three genes. Nearly all of the species included in our study are monophyletic in the neighbour joining trees. The degree of intra-specific variability tends to be lower than the divergence between species, but no barcoding gap is detected. The success rate of the statistical methods of species identification is excellent (up to 99% or 100% for statistical supervised classification methods as the k-Nearest Neighbour or Random Forest). The 16S gene is 2.5 less variable than the Cytb and CO1 genes. As a result its discriminatory power is smaller. To sum up, our results suggest that using DNA markers for identifying species in the Praomyini tribe is a largely valid approach, and that the CO1 and Cytb genes are better DNA markers than the 16S gene. Our results confirm the usefulness of statistical methods such as the Random Forest and the 1-NN methods to assign a sequence to a species, even when the number of species is relatively large. Based on our NJ trees and the distribution of all intraspecific and interspecific pairwise nucleotide distances, we highlight the presence of several potentially new species within the Praomyini tribe that should be subject to corroboration assessments.

Coalescent-based DNA barcoding: multilocus analysis and robustness.

DNA barcoding is the assignment of individuals to species using standardized mitochondrial sequences. Nuclear data are sometimes added to the mitochondrial data to increase power. A barcoding method for analysing mitochondrial and nuclear data is developed. It is a Bayesian method based on the coalescent model. Then this method is assessed using simulated and real data. It is found that adding nuclear data can reduce the number of ambiguous assignments. Finally, the robustness of coalescent-based barcoding to departures from model assumptions is studied using simulations. This method is found to be robust to past population size variations, to within-species population structures, and to designs that poorly sample populations within species. Supplementary Material is available online at www.liebertonline.com/cmb.

Estimation of plant demographic parameters from stage-structured censuses.

This article presents some statistical methods for estimating the parameters of a population dynamics model for annual plants. The model takes account of reproduction, immigration, seed survival in a seed bank, and plant growth. The data consist of the number of plants in several developmental stages that were measured in a number of populations for a few consecutive years; they are incomplete since seeds could not be counted. It is assumed that there are no measurement errors or that measurement errors are binomial and not frequent. Some statistical methods are developed within the framework of estimating equations or Bayesian inference. These methods are applied to oilseed rape data.

DNA barcode analysis: a comparison of phylogenetic and statistical classification methods.

BACKGROUND: DNA barcoding aims to assign individuals to given species according to their sequence at a small locus, generally part of the CO1 mitochondrial gene. Amongst other issues, this raises the question of how to deal with within-species genetic variability and potential transpecific polymorphism. In this context, we examine several assignation methods belonging to two main categories: (i) phylogenetic methods (neighbour-joining and PhyML) that attempt to account for the genealogical framework of DNA evolution and (ii) supervised classification methods (k-nearest neighbour, CART, random forest and kernel methods). These methods range from basic to elaborate. We investigated the ability of each method to correctly classify query sequences drawn from samples of related species using both simulated and real data. Simulated data sets were generated using coalescent simulations in which we varied the genealogical history, mutation parameter, sample size and number of species. RESULTS: No method was found to be the best in all cases. The simplest method of all, "one nearest neighbour", was found to be the most reliable with respect to changes in the parameters of the data sets. The parameter most influencing the performance of the various methods was molecular diversity of the data. Addition of genetically independent loci--nuclear genes--improved the predictive performance of most methods. CONCLUSION: The study implies that taxonomists can influence the quality of their analyses either by choosing a method best-adapted to the configuration of their sample, or, given a certain method, increasing the sample size or altering the amount of molecular diversity. This can be achieved either by sequencing more mtDNA or by sequencing additional nuclear genes. In the latter case, they may also have to modify their data analysis method.