Progression Rates by Age, Sex, Treatment, and Disease Activity by AASLD and EASL Criteria: Data for Precision Medicine.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Antiviral treatment criteria are based on disease progression risk, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance recommendations for patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) without cirrhosis is based on an annual incidence threshold of 0.2%. However, accurate and precise disease progression estimate data are limited. Thus, we aimed to determine rates of cirrhosis and HCC development stratified by age, sex, treatment status, and disease activity based on the 2018 American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases and 2017 European Association for the Study of the Liver guidelines. METHODS: We analyzed 18,338 patients (8914 treated, 9424 untreated) from 6 centers from the United States and 27 centers from Asia-Pacific countries. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate annual progression rates to cirrhosis or HCC in person-years. RESULTS: The cohort was 63% male, with a mean age of 46.19 years, with baseline cirrhosis of 14.3% and median follow up of 9.60 years. By American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases criteria, depending on age, sex, and disease activity, annual incidence rates ranged from 0.07% to 3.94% for cirrhosis, from 0.04% to 2.19% for HCC in patients without cirrhosis, and from 0.40% to 8.83% for HCC in patients with cirrhosis. Several subgroups of patients without cirrhosis including males younger than 40 years of age and females younger than 50 years of age had annual HCC risk near or exceeding 0.2%. Similar results were found using European Association for the Study of the Liver criteria. CONCLUSION: There is great variability in CHB disease progression rates even among "lower-risk" populations. Future CHB modeling studies, public health planning, and HCC surveillance recommendation should be based on more precise disease progression rates based on sex, age, and disease activity, plus treatment status.

Natural History and Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk in Untreated Chronic Hepatitis B Patients With Indeterminate Phase.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Many patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) may not conform to any of the defined phases and hence are classified as indeterminate. We aimed to characterize the baseline prevalence of indeterminate patients and their natural history, phase transition, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study of 3366 adult untreated noncirrhotic CHB patients seen at 5 US clinics and 7 Taiwanese townships who had at least 1 year of serial laboratory data before enrollment with a mean follow-up period of 12.5 years. Patients' clinical phases were determined at baseline and through serial data during follow-up evaluation, based on the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases 2018 guidance. RESULTS: At baseline, 1303 (38.7%) patients were in the indeterminate phase. By up to year 10 of follow-up evaluation, 686 patients (52.7%) remained indeterminate, while 283 patients (21.7%) became immune active. Compared with patients who remained inactive, patients who remained indeterminate had a higher 10-year cumulative HCC incidence (4.6% vs 0.5%; P < .0001) and adjusted hazard ratio for HCC of 14.1 (P = .03). Among patients who remained indeterminate, age 45 years and older (adjusted hazard ratio, 18.4; P = .005) was associated independently with HCC development. CONCLUSIONS: Nearly 40% of patients had indeterminate CHB phase. Of these, half remained indeterminate and one-fifth transitioned to the immune active phase. HCC risk in persistently indeterminate CHB was 14 times higher than inactive CHB. Among persistently indeterminate CHB patients, age 45 years and older was associated with an 18 times higher risk for HCC development. Further studies are needed to evaluate the potential benefit of antiviral therapy for indeterminate patients, especially in the older subgroup.

Effects of Cirrhosis and Diagnosis Scenario in Metabolic-Associated Fatty Liver Disease-Related Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

Metabolic-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) is a major cause of liver-related complications, including hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). While MAFLD-related HCC is known to occur in the absence of cirrhosis, our understanding of MAFLD-related HCC in this setting is limited. Here, we characterize MAFLD-related HCC and the impact of cirrhosis and screening on survival. This was a multicenter, retrospective, cohort study of MAFLD-related HCC. MAFLD was defined based on the presence of race-adjusted overweight, diabetes, or both hypertension and dyslipidemia in the absence of excess alcohol use or other underlying cause of liver disease. The primary outcome of interest was overall survival, and the primary dependent variables were cirrhosis status and prior HCC screening. We used Kaplan-Meier methods to estimate overall survival and Cox proportional hazards models and random forest machine learning to determine factors associated with prognosis. This study included 1,382 patients from 11 centers in the United States and East/Southeast Asia. Cirrhosis was present in 62% of patients, but under half of these patients had undergone imaging within 12 months of HCC diagnosis. Patients with cirrhosis were more likely to have early stage disease but less often received curative therapy. After adjustment, cirrhosis was not associated with prognosis, but the presence of cancer-related symptoms at diagnosis was associated with poorer prognosis. Conclusion: Cirrhosis was not associated with overall survival in this cohort of MAFLD-related HCC, while diagnosis in the presence of symptoms was associated with poorer prognosis. The HCC surveillance rate in patients with MAFLD-related HCC was disappointingly low in a multicenter cohort.

Validity of International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, Codes for Cirrhosis.

INTRODUCTION: Accurate identification of patients with cirrhosis is important for research using administrative databases. We aimed to examine the accuracy of several major ICD-10 codes for cirrhosis diagnosis in a large and diverse patient cohort; there is little existing research on this topic. METHODS: Using data from 3,396 patients with chronic liver disease (hepatitis B or C or nonalcoholic fatty liver disease) from 1 university and several community medical centers, we calculated sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for several major ICD-10 codes for cirrhosis, which was verified by individual chart review. We performed a secondary validation in a general cohort of 1,560 randomly selected patients. RESULTS: While each of the individual study ICD-10 codes were specific (98.08-100%), none of the codes were sufficiently sensitive (0.27-55.70%). PPVs were high in the chronic liver disease cohort (88.41-100%) but lower in the general population (55.53-66.76%). The AUROC for having at least 1 code was higher (0.79) than any code alone (0.50-0.65). DISCUSSION/CONCLUSION: Individual ICD-10 codes are suboptimal for identifying patients with cirrhosis in the general patient population. We recommend conditioning ICD-10 code searches with a chronic liver disease diagnosis code and/or combining diagnostic codes to maximize performance.

Development and Validation of a Risk Score for Liver Cirrhosis Prediction in Untreated and Treated Chronic Hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND: Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) can progress to cirrhosis, but there are limited noninvasive tools available to estimate cirrhosis risk, including in patients receiving antiviral therapy. This study developed and validated a simple model to assess risk in CHB patients. METHODS: The derivation cohort included 3000 CHB patients from 6 centers in the United States, with 52.60% receiving antiviral therapy. External validation was performed for 4552 CHB individuals from similar cohorts in Taiwan, with 21.27% receiving therapy. Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were used to screen predictors and develop the risk score for cirrhosis. Areas under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) were calculated for predictive value. RESULTS: Sex, age, diabetes, antiviral treatment status/duration, hepatitis B e-antigen, and baseline alanine aminotransferase/aspartate aminotransferase levels were significantly associated with increased cirrhosis risk. A 13-point risk score was developed based on these predictors. The AUROCs for predicting cirrhosis risk were 0.82 at 3 years, 0.85 at 5 years, and 0.89 at 10 years in the derivation cohort, and 0.82, 0.79, and 0.77 in the validation cohort, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: We developed and validated a simple cirrhosis prediction model with an independent external cohort that can be applied to both treatment-naive and treatment-experienced CHB patients in diverse settings and locations.

Association Between Fatty Liver and Cirrhosis, Hepatocellular Carcinoma, and Hepatitis B Surface Antigen Seroclearance in Chronic Hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND: Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) and fatty liver (FL) are common, natural history data on concurrent FL and CHB (FL-CHB) are limited. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of FL on cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) seroclearance incidence in CHB patients. METHODS: In a retrospective cohort study of 6786 adult CHB patients, we used propensity score matching (PSM) to balance the FL-CHB and non-FL CHB groups. Kaplan-Meier methods were used to compare cumulative cirrhosis, HCC, and HBsAg seroclearance rates between subgroups. RESULTS: Before PSM, compared to non-FL CHB, FL-CHB patients had lower 10-year cumulative rates of cirrhosis, HCC, and a higher HBsAg seroclearance rate. Similar results were found in the matched FL-CHB and non-FL CHB patients, as well as in the antiviral-treated PSM cohort. Cox proportional hazards model indicated FL to remain significantly and strongly associated with lower risk of cirrhosis and HCC (hazard ratio [HR], 0.19 [95% confidence interval {CI}, .12-.33], P < .001 and HR, 0.21 [95% CI, .09-.51], P = .001, respectively) in antiviral-treated patients but not in untreated patients. CONCLUSIONS: FL was significantly associated with lower cirrhosis and HCC risk and higher HBsAg seroclearance. Further studies are needed to confirm our funding and investigate the mechanisms underlying the impact of FL on CHB.

Incidence, Factors, and Patient-Level Data for Spontaneous HBsAg Seroclearance: A Cohort Study of 11,264 Patients.

INTRODUCTION: Spontaneous hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) seroclearance, the functional cure of hepatitis B infection, occurs rarely. Prior original studies are limited by insufficient sample size and/or follow-up, and recent meta-analyses are limited by inclusion of only study-level data and lack of adjustment for confounders to investigate HBsAg seroclearance rates in most relevant subgroups. Using a cohort with detailed individual patient data, we estimated spontaneous HBsAg seroclearance rates through patient and virologic characteristics. METHODS: We analyzed 11,264 untreated patients with chronic hepatitis B with serial HBsAg data from 4 North American and 8 Asian Pacific centers, with 1,393 patients with HBsAg seroclearance (≥2 undetectable HBsAg ≥6 months apart) during 106,192 person-years. The annual seroclearance rate with detailed categorization by infection phase, further stratified by hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) status, sex, age, and quantitative HBsAg (qHBsAg), was performed. RESULTS: The annual seroclearance rate was 1.31% (95% confidence interval: 1.25-1.38) and over 7% in immune inactive patients aged ≥55 years and with qHBsAg <100 IU/mL. The 5-, 10-, 15-, and 20-year cumulative rates were 4.74%, 10.72%, 18.80%, and 24.79%, respectively. On multivariable analysis, male (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 1.66), older age (41-55 years: aHR = 1.16; >55 years: aHR = 1.21), negative HBeAg (aHR = 6.34), and genotype C (aHR = 1.82) predicted higher seroclearance rates, as did lower hepatitis B virus DNA and lower qHBsAg (P < 0.05 for all), and inactive carrier state. DISCUSSION: The spontaneous annual HBsAg seroclearance rate was 1.31%, but varied from close to zero to about 5% among most chronic hepatitis B subgroups, with older, male, HBeAg-negative, and genotype C patients with lower alanine aminotransferase and hepatitis B virus DNA, and qHBsAg independently associated with higher rates (see Visual Abstract, Supplementary Digital Content 2, http://links.lww.com/CTG/A367).

Early Multiplexed Detection of Cirrhosis using Giant Magnetoresistive Biosensors with Protein Biomarkers.

Liver cirrhosis is one of the leading causes of death in adults worldwide. It is highly prevalent in developing countries and is growing in prevalence in developed countries mostly because of chronic liver diseases, such as chronic hepatitis B and C and alcoholic and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease. However, the prevalence of cirrhosis may be highly underestimated because early stages are asymptomatic and current early detection methods are inadequate. Here, we evaluate the potential of a set of novel cirrhotic protein biomarkers, including soluble intercellular adhesion molecule-1 and mac-2 binding protein glycosylation isomer, for early detection of cirrhosis in a multiplexed assay using our giant magnetoresistive (GMR) sensor arrays. We evaluated the diagnostic performance of the biomarkers, individually and in combination, using multivariate logistic regression and random forest in a blinded proof-of-concept retrospective case-controlled study. The biomarkers in combination exhibited high diagnostic performance in both logistic regression and random forest models, with an area under the curve of 0.98 (0.94-1.00). In addition, the combination of biomarkers resulted in a high sensitivity of 0.97 (0.95-1.00) and a high specificity of 1.00. We showed that the diagnostic performance of our novel set of cirrhotic protein biomarkers on our multiplexed GMR sensor arrays is higher than the performance of currently used clinical biomarkers and factors (i.e., age, sex, alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, etc.). With this combination of novel biomarkers and GMR technology, we could potentially boost the diagnostic power of early cirrhosis detection.

Fatty liver is not independently associated with the rates of complete response to oral antiviral therapy in chronic hepatitis B patients.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and chronic hepatitis B (CHB) are common liver diseases. Concurrent NAFLD may affect antiviral treatment outcomes in CHB patients. The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of NAFLD on complete viral suppression ([CVS], HBV DNA <20-100 IU/mL) and/or biochemical response ([BR], ALT of ≤25 U/L for females; 35 U/L for males) in CHB patients who received oral antiviral therapy. METHODS: A retrospective study of 555 treated CHB patients (187 NAFLD; 368 non-NAFLD) from 2000 to 2016 at a USA medical centre. NAFLD was diagnosed by imaging and/or histology after ruling out secondary causes of hepatic steatosis. RESULTS: The majority of patients were male (60.7%), Asian (87.56%) and HBeAg-negative (66.7%). NAFLD patients compared to non-NAFLD were more likely HBeAg negative (74.3% vs 62.8%, P = .02), hypertensive (33.2% vs 22.8%, P = .009) and male (67.4% vs 57.3%, P = .02) with a higher mean BMI (25.4 ± 4.3 vs 23.8 ± 4.0 kg/m2 , P < .001). Both cohorts achieved similar rates of CVS (86% vs 88%) and BR (38% vs 41%) during the follow-up of up to 60 months (P > .05), but NAFLD had higher cumulative rates of CVS + BR, compared with non-NAFLD patients (32.5% vs 22.8%, P = .03). In multivariate analyses, NAFLD was not independently associated with CVS and/or BR outcomes. Receipt of entecavir or tenofovir (vs older therapies) and lower baseline HBV DNA or higher ALT were positively associated with achieving CVS or BR. CONCLUSION: Concomitant NAFLD had no impact on the long-term rates of CVS and/or BR in treated CHB patients.

Antiviral therapy and the development of osteopenia/osteoporosis among Asians with chronic hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND: Recent studies have suggested a potential increase in the incidence of osteoporosis for patients receiving tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF), but this issue remains controversial. METHODS: The retrospective cohort study of 1224 Asian chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients greater than 18 years without baseline osteopenia/osteoporosis seen at four US centers from 2008 to 2016. Patients were categorized into three groups-treatment-naive patients who initiated therapy with TDF (1) or entecavir (ETV) (2), or untreated patients (3). Patients were followed until the development of osteopenia/osteoporosis or end of the study. RESULTS: Of the 1224 study patients, 276 were treated with TDF, 335 with ETV, and 613 were untreated. The prevalence of cirrhosis was lower for untreated patients (2.6% vs 16.3% for TDF and 17.6% for ETV; P < 0.001). The 8-year cumulative incidence rate of osteopenia/osteoporosis was 13.17% for TDF, 15.09% for ETV, and 10.17% for untreated patients, with no statistically significant difference among the three groups ( P = 0.218). On multivariate Cox regression controlling for demographics, osteoporosis risk factors, albumin, and hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA levels, neither TDF (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] = 0.74; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.34 and 1.59) nor ETV (adjusted HR = 0.98; 95% CI: 0.51 and 1.90) were associated with increased osteopenia/osteoporosis risk compared with untreated patients. CONCLUSIONS: Our retrospective study suggests that there is no significant increase in the incidence of osteopenia/osteoporosis for patients with CHB treated with TDF or ETV during a median follow-up of about 4 to 5 years. However, further study with longer follow-up is needed as an anti-HBV therapy, which is often lifelong or long-term and the development of osteopenia/osteoporosis can be a slow process.

Changes in Renal Function in Patients With Chronic HBV Infection Treated With Tenofovir Disoproxil Fumarate vs Entecavir.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: It is unclear whether drugs used to treat chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection cause significant renal impairment. We compare adjusted mean estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFR; mL/min/1.73 m2) of patients with chronic HBV infection treated with tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) vs patients treated with entecavir. METHODS: We performed a retrospective study of patients with chronic HBV infections treated with TDF (n = 239) or entecavir (n = 171), from 2000 through 2016, followed for a mean time of 43-46 months. Levels of serum creatinine were measured ≥12 months while patients received treatment. Patients did not have prior exposure to adefovir or HCV, HDV, or HIV co-infection. We performed propensity score matching (PSM) for age, sex, presence of hypertension, diabetes mellitus, baseline eGFR, cirrhosis, and follow-up duration. We performed multivariate generalized linear modeling, adjusting for cirrhosis, diabetes, and hypertension, to estimate adjusted mean eGFR for matched and unmatched cohorts. Cox regression was used to identify predictors of renal impairment. RESULTS: eGFRs were ≥60, after PSM, in 116 patients given entecavir and in 116 patients given TDF; eGFRs were <60 in 32 patients given entecavir and 26 patients given TDF. Multivariate generalized linear modeling of the unmatched overall and <60 eGFR cohorts revealed significantly lower adjusted mean eGFRs in patients given TDF (all P < .001). However, in the eGFR ≥60 PSM cohort, the adjusted mean eGFR was similar between patients receiving either treatment. In Cox regression analysis, TDF was not associated with mild or moderate renal impairment compared with entecavir. CONCLUSION: In a retrospective study of patients with chronic HBV infections treated with TDF vs entecavir, we found that TDF was not associated with higher risk of worsening renal function during short- or intermediate-term follow-up periods, among patients without significant renal impairment. Additional studies, with longer follow-up periods, are needed because treatment for chronic HBV infection is generally long term or life-long. For patients with baseline renal impairment, significant renal decline was among patients given TDF compared to patients given entecavir.

Poor Adherence to Guidelines for Treatment of Chronic Hepatitis B Virus Infection at Primary Care and Referral Practices.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases (AASLD) guidelines for treatment of chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection have changed with time. We assessed rates of treatment evaluation and initiation in patients with chronic HBV infection from different practice settings in the past 14 years. METHODS: Treatment-naive patients with chronic HBV infection were recruited from different practice settings in California from January 2002 through December 2016. The study population comprised 4130 consecutive, treatment-naive patients with chronic HBV infection seen by community primary care physicians (n = 616), community gastroenterologists (n = 2251), or university hepatologists (n = 1263). Treatment eligibility was assessed using data from the first 6 months after initial presentation based on AASLD criteria adjusted for changes over time. RESULTS: Within the first 6 months of care, the proportions of patients evaluated by all 3 relevant tests (measurements of alanine aminotransferase, hepatitis B virus e antigen, and HBV DNA levels) were as follows: 36.69% in community primary care, 59.80% in gastroenterologist care, and 79.97% in hepatology care (P < .0001 among the 3 groups). Higher proportions of patients were eligible for treatment in specialty practices: 12.76% in community primary care, 24.96% in gastroenterologist care, and 29.43% in hepatology care (P < .0001). Among treatment-eligible patients, there was no significant difference in the proportions of patients who began antiviral therapy between those receiving treatment from a gastroenterologist (55.65%) vs a hepatologist (57.90%; P = .56). Of 243 evaluable patients receiving community primary care, only 31 were eligible for treatment and only 12 of these (38.71%) received treatment. CONCLUSIONS: In an analysis of patients receiving care for chronic HBV infection, we found the proportions evaluated and receiving treatment to be suboptimal, according to AASLD criteria, in all practice settings. However, rates of evaluation and treatment were lowest for patients receiving community primary care.

Autoantibodies in chronic hepatitis C virus infection: impact on clinical outcomes and extrahepatic manifestations.

GOALS: To examine the role that autoantibodies (auto-abs) play in chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) regarding demographics, presence of extrahepatic manifestations and long-term outcomes in a large US cohort. BACKGROUND: Auto-abs have been reported to be prevalent in patients with chronic HCV infection, but data on the natural history of these patients are limited. STUDY: The study included 1556 consecutive patients with HCV without concurrent HIV and/or HBV who had testing for antinuclear antibody (ANA), antimitochondrial antibody (AMA), antismooth muscle antibody (ASMA) and/or antiliver kidney microsomal antibody (LKM). Primary outcomes included development of cirrhosis, hepatic decompensations, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), mortality and/or sustained virological response (SVR) to antiviral therapy. RESULTS: A total of 388 patients tested positive for any auto-ab (ANA 21.8%, ASMA 13.3%, AMA 2.2% and LKM 1.2%). Patients who tested positive versus negative were more likely to be women (29.3% vs 20.9%, p<0.001) and less likely to achieve SVR with most treated patients receiving interferon-based therapies (37.2% vs 47.1%, p=0.031). There was no difference between groups for baseline laboratory data, disease state or rate of extrahepatic manifestations (42.8% vs 45.0%, p=0.44). Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed no statistically significant difference between groups for the 10-year development of cirrhosis, hepatic decompensations, HCC nor survival. Furthermore, auto-ab positivity was only found to be a predictor for a lower rate of SVR on multivariate analysis (adjusted OR=1.61, 95 % CI 1.00 to 2.58, p=0.048). CONCLUSIONS: In our cohort, auto-ab positivity was common, especially in women, and predicted a lower rate of SVR but otherwise had no impact on the natural history of chronic HCV or presence of extrahepatic manifestations.

Soluble intercellular adhesion molecule-1 is associated with hepatocellular carcinoma risk: multiplex analysis of serum markers.

Individualized assessment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk in chronic liver disease remains challenging. Serum biomarkers including cytokines may offer helpful adjuncts to standard parameters for risk prediction. Our aim was to identify markers associated with increased HCC incidence. This was a prospective cohort study of 282 patients with both viral or non-viral chronic liver disease. Baseline serum cytokines and other markers were measured in multiplex with a commercially-available Luminex-based system. Patients were followed until death or HCC diagnosis. We performed Lasso-based survival analysis to determine parameters associated with HCC development. Cytokine mean florescence intensity (MFI) was the primary predictor and HCC development the primary outcome. 25 patients developed HCC with total follow-up of 1,363 person-years. Parameters associated with increased HCC incidence were cirrhosis, hepatic decompensation, and soluble serum intercellular adhesion molecule 1 (sICAM-1) MFI. No other molecules increased predictive power for HCC incidence. On univariate analysis, the parameters associated with HCC incidence in patients with cirrhosis were age, antiviral treatment, and high sICAM-1 MFI; on multivariate analysis, sICAM-1 remained associated with HCC development (adjusted HR = 2.75). On unbiased screening of serum cytokines and other markers in a diverse cohort, baseline sICAM-1 MFI is associated with HCC incidence.

HCV Genotype 6 Increased the Risk for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Among Asian Patients With Liver Cirrhosis.

OBJECTIVES: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a well-documented risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Seven HCV genotypes have been classified, and the genotypes show a great variety of geographic distribution. HCV genotype 6 is prevalent in Southeast Asia and has been less studied than the other genotypes. METHODS: This follow-up study was designed to evaluate the natural history of HCV genotype 6. The cohort enrolled 851 Asian patients consisting of 222 with HCV genotype 6 and 629 with other genotypes. The incidence of HCC per 1,000 person-years of various HCV genotypes was estimated by dividing the new HCC cases to the person-years of follow-up. The adjusted hazards ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated by Cox's proportional hazards models. RESULTS: After 4072 person-years of follow-up, there were 96 newly-developed HCC cases, confirming an incidence of 23.6 per 1000 person-years. By stratifying cirrhosis at study entry, the cumulative risk of HCC among HCV genotype 6 vs. non-6 was 2.9 vs. 2.2% for those without cirrhosis (P=0.45) and 76.2% (95% CI: 55.6-96.8%) vs. 36.2% (95% CI: 28.7-39.1%) for those with cirrhosis (P<0.05), respectively. Among patients with cirrhosis, HCV genotype 6 was significantly associated with HCC compared to patients with non-6 genotypes, with the adjusted HR=2.12 (1.33-3.39), P<0.05. In a model treating patients with genotypes other than 1 or 6 as the reference, the adjusted HR for HCC for HCV genotypes 1 and 6 were 1.13 (0.56-2.27) and 2.34 (1.12-4.86), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with cirrhosis, those with HCV genotype 6 infection should be given high priority for antiviral therapy to decrease HCC risk and for vigilant adherence to HCC surveillance.

Effects of Cirrhosis on Short-term and Long-term Survival of Patients With Hepatitis B-related Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Hepatitis B virus (HBV) is the most common cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) worldwide. Unlike other liver diseases, HBV can cause HCC in the absence of cirrhosis. We investigated whether features of HCC in patients with HBV infection without cirrhosis and survival times differ from those of patients who develop HCC after cirrhosis. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study of 487 consecutive cases of HBV-related HCC who were seen from 2000 through 2014 at a tertiary care center. Laboratory values, imaging results, and treatment information were obtained from subjects' medical records. Symptoms of HCC included weight loss, abdominal pain, or new hepatic decompensation. The primary outcome was overall survival, which was categorized as short-term survival (up to 3 years after the diagnosis of HCC) or long-term survival (3-10 years after diagnosis). RESULTS: The mean tumor size at diagnosis was significantly larger in patients without cirrhosis (6.4 ± 4.3 cm) than in patients with cirrhosis (5.0 ± 3.8 cm) (P = .0009). A significantly larger proportion of patients without cirrhosis had symptoms at diagnosis (43.8% vs 35.4% in patients without cirrhosis, P = .09). A significantly higher proportion of patients without cirrhosis survived for the long-term (P = .003), but there was no significant difference between groups in short-term survival (P = .37). Notably, the same proportions of asymptomatic patients with and without cirrhosis survived for the short-term (64.3% vs 64.2%, P = .73), but a lower proportion of asymptomatic patients with cirrhosis survived for the long-term (P = .015). In multivariate Cox regression analysis, cirrhosis was an independent predictor of death in 3-10 years (hazard ratio, 3.76; P = .003) but not in less than 3 years (P = .48). Symptoms at diagnosis predicted death within 3 years (hazard ratio, 1.76; P =.006) but not in 3-10 years (P = .15). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with HBV infection and HCC without cirrhosis present with larger tumors, and a larger percentage have symptoms of cancer than patients with cirrhosis. This may indicate that HCC surveillance is less than optimal for patients with HBV infection without cirrhosis. Despite this suboptimal surveillance, patients without cirrhosis have higher long-term survival than those with cirrhosis, especially when asymptomatic at diagnosis.