A Pilot, Predictive Surveillance Model in Pharmacovigilance Using Machine Learning Approaches.

INTRODUCTION: The identification of a new adverse event (AE) caused by a drug product is one of the key activities in the pharmaceutical industry to ensure the safety profile of a drug product. Machine learning (ML) has the potential to assist with signal detection and supplement traditional pharmacovigilance (PV) surveillance methods. This pilot ML modeling study was designed to detect potential safety signals for two AbbVie products and test the model's capability of detecting safety signals earlier than humans. METHODS: Drug X, a mature product with post-marketing data, and Drug Y, a recently approved drug in another therapeutic area, were selected. Gradient boosting-based ML approaches (e.g., XGBoost) were applied as the main modeling strategy. RESULTS: For Drug X, eight true signals were present in the test set. Among 12 potential new signals generated, four were true signals with a 50.0% sensitivity rate and a 33.3% positive predictive value (PPV) rate. Among the remaining eight potential new signals, one was confirmed as a signal and detected six months earlier than humans. For Drug Y, nine true signals were present in the test set. Among 13 potential new signals generated, five were true signals with a 55.6% sensitivity rate and a 38.5% PPV rate. Among the remaining eight potential new signals, none were confirmed as true signals upon human review. CONCLUSION: This model demonstrated acceptable accuracy for safety signal detection and potential for earlier detection when compared to humans. Expert judgment, flexibility, and critical thinking are essential human skills required for the final, accurate assessment of adverse event cases.

Is the false-positive rate in mammography in North America too high?

The practice of investigating pathological abnormalities in the breasts of females who are asymptomatic is primarily employed using X-ray mammography. The importance of breast screening is reflected in the mortality-based benefits observed among females who are found to possess invasive breast carcinoma prior to the manifestation of clinical symptoms. It is estimated that population-based screening constitutes a 17% reduction in the breast cancer mortality rate among females affected by invasive breast carcinoma. In spite of the significant utility that screening confers in those affected by invasive cancer, limitations associated with screening manifest as potential harms affecting individuals who are free of invasive disease. Disease-free and benign tumour-bearing individuals who are subjected to diagnostic work-up following a screening examination constitute a population of cases referred to as false positives (FPs). This article discusses factors contributing to the FP rate in mammography and extends the discussion to an assessment of the consequences associated with FP reporting. We conclude that the mammography FP rate in North America is in excess based upon the observation of overtreatment of in situ lesions and the disproportionate distribution of detriment and benefit among the population of individuals recalled for diagnostic work-up subsequent to screening. To address the excessive incidence of FPs in mammography, we investigate solutions that may be employed to remediate the current status of the FP rate. Subsequently, it can be suggested that improvements in the breast-screening protocol, medical litigation risk, image interpretation software and the implementation of image acquisition modalities that overcome superimposition effects are promising solutions.