A curve-free Bayesian decision-theoretic design for two-agent Phase I trials.

Although Bayesian statistical methods are gaining attention in the medical community, as they provide a natural framework for incorporating prior information, the complexity of these methods limited their adoptions in clinical trials. This article proposes a Bayesian design for two-agent Phase I trials that is relatively easy for clinicians to understand and implement, yet performs comparably to more complex designs, so that it is more likely to be adopted in actual trials. In order to reduce model complexity and computational burden, we choose a working model with conjugate priors so that the posterior distributions have analytical expressions. Furthermore, we provide a simple strategy to facilitate the specification of priors based on the toxicity information accrued from single-agent Phase I trials. The proposed method should be useful in terms of the ease of implementation and the savings in sample size without sacrificing performance. Moreover, the conservativeness of the dose-finding algorithm renders it a relatively safe method.

Urine phyto-oestrogen metabolites are not significantly associated with risk of type 2 diabetes: the Singapore Chinese health study.

We evaluated the relationship between urine concentrations of phyto-oestrogens (isoflavones and lignans) and risk of incident type 2 diabetes in middle-aged and elderly Chinese residing in Singapore. Urine metabolites of isoflavones and lignans were assayed by HPLC among 564 diabetes cases and 564 matched controls in a case-control study nested within the Singapore Chinese Health Study cohort. Participants were free of diagnosed diabetes, CVD and cancer at morning urine collections during 1999-2004. Cases were participants who reported to have physician-diagnosed diabetes at follow-up visits during 2006-2010, whereas controls were randomly selected among those who remained free of diabetes and were matched to the index cases by age, sex, dialect group and date of urine collection. Conditional logistic regression models were used to calculate OR and 95 % CI with adjustment for potential confounders. The mean age of the participants at the time of urine collection was 59·8 years, and the average interval between urine collection and diabetes diagnosis was 4·0 years. The multivariate-adjusted OR for diabetes were 1·00 (reference), 0·76 (95 % CI 0·52, 1·11), 0·78 (95 % CI 0·53, 1·14) and 0·79 (95 % CI 0·54, 1·15) across quartiles of urine isoflavones (P for trend=0·54), and were 1·00 (reference), 0·87 (95 % CI 0·60, 1·27), 1·10 (95 % CI 0·77, 1·56) and 0·93 (95 % CI 0·63, 1·37) for lignans (P for trend=0·93). The results were similar in men and women, as well as for individual metabolites of isoflavones (genistein, daidzein, glycitin and equol) or lignans (enterodiol and enterolactone). The present study did not find a significant association between urine phyto-oestrogen metabolites and risk of type 2 diabetes in Chinese adults.

A North American brain tumor consortium phase II study of poly-ICLC for adult patients with recurrent anaplastic gliomas.

This phase II study was designed to determine the objective response rate and 6-month progression free survival of adult patients with recurrent supratentorial anaplastic glioma when treated with the immune modulator, polyinosinic-polycytidylic acid stabilized with polylysine and carboxymethylcellulose (poly-ICLC). This was an open-labeled, single arm phase II study. Patients were treated with poly-ICLC alone. Patients may have had treatment for no more than two prior relapses. Treatment with poly-ICLC continued until tumor progression. Fifty five patients were enrolled in the study. Ten were ineligible after central review of pathology. Eleven percent of patients (5 of 45) had a radiographic response. Time to progression was known for 39 patients and 6 remain on treatment. The estimated 6-month progression free survival was 24%. The median survival time was 43 weeks. Poly-ICLC was well tolerated, but there was no improvement in 6-month progression free survival compared to historical database nor was there an encouraging objective radiographic response rate. Based on this study, poly-ICLC does not improve 6moPFS in patients with recurrent anaplastic gliomas but may be worth further study in combination with agents such as temozolomide.