Outbreak.info genomic reports: scalable and dynamic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 variants and mutations.

In response to the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern, the global scientific community, through unprecedented effort, has sequenced and shared over 11 million genomes through GISAID, as of May 2022. This extraordinarily high sampling rate provides a unique opportunity to track the evolution of the virus in near real-time. Here, we present outbreak.info , a platform that currently tracks over 40 million combinations of Pango lineages and individual mutations, across over 7,000 locations, to provide insights for researchers, public health officials and the general public. We describe the interpretable visualizations available in our web application, the pipelines that enable the scalable ingestion of heterogeneous sources of SARS-CoV-2 variant data and the server infrastructure that enables widespread data dissemination via a high-performance API that can be accessed using an R package. We show how outbreak.info can be used for genomic surveillance and as a hypothesis-generation tool to understand the ongoing pandemic at varying geographic and temporal scales.

Sequential Transmission of Influenza Viruses in Ferrets Does Not Enhance Infectivity and Does Not Predict Transmissibility in Humans.

Airborne transmission in ferrets is a key component of pandemic risk assessment. However, some emerging avian influenza viruses transmit between ferrets but do not spread in humans. Therefore, we evaluated sequential rounds of airborne transmission as an approach to enhance the predictive accuracy of the ferret model. We reasoned that infection of ferrets via the respiratory route and onward transmission would more closely model transmission in humans. We hypothesized that pandemic and seasonal viruses would transmit efficiently over two rounds of transmission, while emerging avian viruses would fail to transmit in a second round. The 2009 pandemic H1N1 (pdm09) and seasonal H3N2 viruses were compared to avian-origin H7N9 and H3N8 viruses. Depending on the virus strain, transmission efficiency varied from 50 to 100% during the first round of transmission; the efficiency for each virus did not change during the second round, and viral replication kinetics in both rounds of transmission were similar. Both the H1N1pdm09 and H7N9 viruses acquired specific mutations during sequential transmission, while the H3N2 and H3N8 viruses did not; however, a global analysis of host-adaptive mutations revealed that minimal changes were associated with transmission of H1N1 and H3N2 viruses, while a greater number of changes occurred in the avian H3N8 and H7N9 viruses. Thus, influenza viruses that transmit in ferrets maintain their transmission efficiency through serial rounds of transmission. This answers the question of whether ferrets can propagate viruses through more than one round of airborne transmission and emphasizes that transmission in ferrets is necessary but not sufficient to infer transmissibility in humans. IMPORTANCE Airborne transmission in ferrets is used to gauge the pandemic potential of emerging influenza viruses; however, some emerging influenza viruses that transmit between ferrets do not spread between humans. Therefore, we evaluated sequential rounds of airborne transmission in ferrets as a strategy to enhance the predictive accuracy of the ferret model. Human influenza viruses transmitted efficiently (>83%) over two rounds of airborne transmission, demonstrating that, like humans, ferrets infected by the respiratory route can propagate the infection onward through the air. However, emerging avian influenza viruses with associated host-adaptive mutations also transmitted through sequential transmission. Thus, airborne transmission in ferrets is necessary but not sufficient to infer transmissibility in humans, and sequential transmission did not enhance pandemic risk assessment.

Urgent need for a non-discriminatory and non-stigmatizing nomenclature for monkeypox virus.

We propose a novel, non-discriminatory classification of monkeypox virus diversity. Together with the World Health Organization, we named three clades (I, IIa and IIb) in order of detection. Within IIb, the cause of the current global outbreak, we identified multiple lineages (A.1, A.2, A.1.1 and B.1) to support real-time genomic surveillance.

Discovery and Genomic Characterization of a 382-Nucleotide Deletion in ORF7b and ORF8 during the Early Evolution of SARS-CoV-2.

To date, limited genetic changes in the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) genome have been described. Here, we report a 382-nucleotide (nt) deletion in SARS-CoV-2 that truncates open reading frame 7b (ORF7b) and ORF8, removing the ORF8 transcription regulatory sequence (TRS) and eliminating ORF8 transcription. The earliest 382-nt deletion variant was detected in Singapore on 29 January 2020, with the deletion viruses circulating in the country and accounting for 23.6% (45/191) of SARS-CoV-2 samples screened in this study. SARS-CoV-2 with the same deletion has since been detected in Taiwan, and other ORF7b/8 deletions of various lengths, ranging from 62 nt to 345 nt, have been observed in other geographic locations, including Australia, Bangladesh, and Spain. Mutations or deletions in ORF8 of SARS-CoV have been associated with reduced replicative fitness and virus attenuation. In contrast, the SARS-CoV-2 382-nt deletion viruses showed significantly higher replicative fitness in vitro than the wild type, while no difference was observed in patient viral load, indicating that the deletion variant viruses retained their replicative fitness. A robust antibody response to ORF8 has been observed in SARS-CoV-2 infection, suggesting that the emergence of ORF8 deletions may be due to immune-driven selection and that further deletion variants may emerge during the sustained transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in humans.IMPORTANCE During the SARS epidemic in 2003/2004, a number of deletions were observed in ORF8 of SARS-CoV, and eventually deletion variants became predominant, leading to the hypothesis that ORF8 was an evolutionary hot spot for adaptation of SARS-CoV to humans. However, due to the successful control of the SARS epidemic, the importance of these deletions for the epidemiological fitness of SARS-CoV in humans could not be established. The emergence of multiple SARS-CoV-2 strains with ORF8 deletions, combined with evidence of a robust immune response to ORF8, suggests that the lack of ORF8 may assist with host immune evasion. In addition to providing a key insight into the evolutionary behavior of SARS-CoV-2 as the virus adapts to its new human hosts, the emergence of ORF8 deletion variants may also impact vaccination strategies.

Influenza A Hemagglutinin Passage Bias Sites and Host Specificity Mutations.

Animal studies aimed at understanding influenza virus mutations that change host specificity to adapt to replication in mammalian hosts are necessarily limited in sample numbers due to high cost and safety requirements. As a safe, higher-throughput alternative, we explore the possibility of using readily available passage bias data obtained mostly from seasonal H1 and H3 influenza strains that were differentially grown in mammalian (MDCK) and avian cells (eggs). Using a statistical approach over 80,000 influenza hemagglutinin sequences with passage information, we found that passage bias sites are most commonly found in three regions: (i) the globular head domain around the receptor binding site, (ii) the region that undergoes pH-dependent structural changes and (iii) the unstructured N-terminal region harbouring the signal peptide. Passage bias sites were consistent among different passage cell types as well as between influenza A subtypes. We also find epistatic interactions of site pairs supporting the notion of host-specific dependency of mutations on virus genomic background. The sites identified from our large-scale sequence analysis substantially overlap with known host adaptation sites in the WHO H5N1 genetic changes inventory suggesting information from passage bias can provide candidate sites for host specificity changes to aid in risk assessment for emerging strains.

Global update on the susceptibility of human influenza viruses to neuraminidase inhibitors and status of novel antivirals, 2016-2017.

A total of 13672 viruses, collected by World Health Organization recognised National Influenza Centres between May 2016 and May 2017, were assessed for neuraminidase inhibitor susceptibility by four WHO Collaborating Centres for Reference and Research on Influenza and one WHO Collaborating Centre for the Surveillance Epidemiology and Control of Influenza. The 50% inhibitory concentration (IC50) was determined for oseltamivir and zanamivir for all viruses, and for peramivir and laninamivir in a subset (n = 8457). Of the viruses tested, 94% were obtained from the Western Pacific, Americas and European WHO regions, while limited viruses were available from the Eastern Mediterranean, African and South East Asian regions. Reduced inhibition (RI) by one or more neuraminidase inhibitor was exhibited by 0.2% of viruses tested (n = 32). The frequency of viruses with RI has remained low since this global analysis began (2015/16: 0.8%, 2014/15: 0.5%; 2013/14: 1.9%; 2012/13: 0.6%) but 2016/17 has the lowest frequency observed to date. Analysis of 13581 neuraminidase sequences retrieved from public databases, of which 5243 sequences were from viruses not included in the phenotypic analyses, identified 58 further viruses (29 without phenotypic analyses) with amino acid substitutions associated with RI by at least one neuraminidase inhibitor. Bringing the total proportion to 0.5% (90/18915). This 2016/17 analysis demonstrates that neuraminidase inhibitors remain suitable for treatment and prophylaxis of influenza virus infections, but continued monitoring is important. An expansion of surveillance testing is paramount since several novel influenza antivirals are in late stage clinical trials with some resistance already having been identified.

The Geographic Variation of Surveillance and Zoonotic Spillover Potential of Influenza Viruses in Domestic Poultry and Swine.

BACKGROUND: Avian and swine influenza viruses circulate worldwide and pose threats to both animal and human health. The design of global surveillance strategies is hindered by information gaps on the geospatial variation in virus emergence potential and existing surveillance efforts. METHODS: We developed a spatial framework to quantify the geographic variation in outbreak emergence potential based on indices of potential for animal-to-human and secondary human-to-human transmission. We then compared our resultant raster model of variation in emergence potential with the global distribution of recent surveillance efforts from 359105 reports of surveillance activities. RESULTS: Our framework identified regions of Southeast Asia, Eastern Europe, Central America, and sub-Saharan Africa with high potential for influenza virus spillover. In the last 15 years, however, we found that 78.43% and 49.01% of high-risk areas lacked evidence of influenza virus surveillance in swine and domestic poultry, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our work highlights priority areas where improved surveillance and outbreak mitigation could enhance pandemic preparedness strategies.

Global update on the susceptibility of human influenza viruses to neuraminidase inhibitors, 2014-2015.

The World Health Organization (WHO) Collaborating Centres for Reference and Research on Influenza (WHO CCs) tested 13,312 viruses collected by WHO recognized National Influenza Centres between May 2014 and May 2015 to determine 50% inhibitory concentration (IC50) data for neuraminidase inhibitors (NAIs) oseltamivir, zanamivir, peramivir and laninamivir. Ninety-four per cent of the viruses tested by the WHO CCs were from three WHO regions: Western Pacific, the Americas and Europe. Approximately 0.5% (n = 68) of viruses showed either highly reduced inhibition (HRI) or reduced inhibition (RI) (n = 56) against at least one of the four NAIs. Of the twelve viruses with HRI, six were A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses, three were A(H3N2) viruses and three were B/Yamagata-lineage viruses. The overall frequency of viruses with RI or HRI by the NAIs was lower than that observed in 2013-14 (1.9%), but similar to the 2012-13 period (0.6%). Based on the current analysis, the NAIs remain an appropriate choice for the treatment and prophylaxis of influenza virus infections.

HIV-1 adaptation to low levels of CCR5 results in V3 and V2 loop changes that increase envelope pathogenicity, CCR5 affinity and decrease susceptibility to Maraviroc.

Variability in CCR5 levels in the human population is suggested to affect virus evolution, fitness and the course of HIV disease. We previously demonstrated that cell surface CCR5 levels directly affect HIV Envelope mediated bystander apoptosis. In this study, we attempted to understand HIV evolution in the presence of low levels of CCR5, mimicking the limiting CCR5 levels inherent to the host. HIV-1 adaptation in a T cell line expressing low levels of CCR5 resulted in two specific mutations; N302Y and E172K. The N302Y mutation led to accelerated virus replication, increase in Maraviroc IC50 and an increase in Envelope mediated bystander apoptosis in low CCR5 expressing cells. Analysis of subtype B sequences showed that N302Y is over-represented in CXCR4 tropic viruses in comparison to CCR5 tropic isolates. Considering the variability in CCR5 levels between individuals, our findings have implications for virus evolution, MVC susceptibility as well as HIV pathogenesis.

Influenza A(H5N8) Virus Similar to Strain in Korea Causing Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Germany.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N8) virus, like the recently described H5N8 strain from Korea, was detected in November 2014 in farmed turkeys and in a healthy common teal (Anas crecca) in northeastern Germany. Infected wild birds possibly introduced this virus.

Influenza viruses with B/Yamagata- and B/Victoria-like neuraminidases are differentially affected by mutations that alter antiviral susceptibility.

OBJECTIVES: The burden of disease due to influenza B is often underestimated. Clinical studies have shown that oseltamivir, a widely used neuraminidase inhibitor (NAI) antiviral drug, may have reduced effectiveness against influenza B viruses. Therefore, it is important to study the effect of neuraminidase mutations in influenza B viruses that may further reduce NAI susceptibility, and to determine whether these mutations have the same effect in the two lineages of influenza B viruses that are currently circulating (B/Yamagata-like and B/Victoria-like). METHODS: We characterized the effect of 16 amino acid substitutions across five framework residues and four monomeric interface residues on the susceptibility to four different NAIs (oseltamivir, zanamivir, peramivir and laninamivir). RESULTS: Framework residue mutations E117A and E117G conferred highly reduced inhibition to three of the four NAIs, but substantially reduced neuraminidase activity, whereas other framework mutations retained a greater level of NA activity. Mutations E105K, P139S and G140R of the monomeric interface were also found to cause highly reduced inhibition, but, interestingly, their effect was substantially greater in a B/Victoria-like neuraminidase than in a B/Yamagata-like neuraminidase, with some susceptibility values being up to 1000-fold different between lineages. CONCLUSIONS: The frequency and the effect of key neuraminidase mutations on neuraminidase activity and NAI susceptibility can differ substantially between the two influenza B lineages. Therefore, future surveillance, analysis and interpretation of influenza B virus NAI susceptibility should consider the B lineage of the neuraminidase in the same manner as already occurs for different influenza A neuraminidase subtypes.

The contrasting phylodynamics of human influenza B viruses.

A complex interplay of viral, host, and ecological factors shapes the spatio-temporal incidence and evolution of human influenza viruses. Although considerable attention has been paid to influenza A viruses, a lack of equivalent data means that an integrated evolutionary and epidemiological framework has until now not been available for influenza B viruses, despite their significant disease burden. Through the analysis of over 900 full genomes from an epidemiological collection of more than 26,000 strains from Australia and New Zealand, we reveal fundamental differences in the phylodynamics of the two co-circulating lineages of influenza B virus (Victoria and Yamagata), showing that their individual dynamics are determined by a complex relationship between virus transmission, age of infection, and receptor binding preference. In sum, this work identifies new factors that are important determinants of influenza B evolution and epidemiology.

Genetic signatures of HIV-1 envelope-mediated bystander apoptosis.

The envelope (Env) glycoprotein of HIV is an important determinant of viral pathogenesis. Several lines of evidence support the role of HIV-1 Env in inducing bystander apoptosis that may be a contributing factor in CD4(+) T cell loss. However, most of the studies testing this phenomenon have been conducted with laboratory-adapted HIV-1 isolates. This raises the question of whether primary Envs derived from HIV-infected patients are capable of inducing bystander apoptosis and whether specific Env signatures are associated with this phenomenon. We developed a high throughput assay to determine the bystander apoptosis inducing activity of a panel of primary Envs. We tested 38 different Envs for bystander apoptosis, virion infectivity, neutralizing antibody sensitivity, and putative N-linked glycosylation sites along with a comprehensive sequence analysis to determine if specific sequence signatures within the viral Env are associated with bystander apoptosis. Our studies show that primary Envs vary considerably in their bystander apoptosis-inducing potential, a phenomenon that correlates inversely with putative N-linked glycosylation sites and positively with virion infectivity. By use of a novel phylogenetic analysis that avoids subtype bias coupled with structural considerations, we found specific residues like Arg-476 and Asn-425 that were associated with differences in bystander apoptosis induction. A specific role of these residues was also confirmed experimentally. These data demonstrate for the first time the potential of primary R5 Envs to mediate bystander apoptosis in CD4(+) T cells. Furthermore, we identify specific genetic signatures within the Env that may be associated with the bystander apoptosis-inducing phenotype.

Identification of conserved motifs in the West Nile virus envelope essential for particle secretion.

BACKGROUND: Enveloped viruses utilize cellular membranes to bud from infected cells. The process of virion assembly and budding is often facilitated by the presence of certain conserved motifs within viral proteins in conjunction with cellular factors. We hence examined the West Nile Virus (WNV) Envelope protein for the presence of any such motifs and their functional characterization. RESULTS: We identified conserved 461PXAP464 and 349YCYL352 motifs in the WNV envelope glycoprotein bearing resemblance to retroviral late domains. Disruptive mutations of PXAP to LAAL and of the highly conserved Cys350 in the YCYL motif, led to a severe reduction in WNV particle production. Similar motifs in case of retroviruses are known to interact with components of host sorting machinery like PXAP with Tsg101 and YXXL with Alix. However, in the case of WNV, siRNA mediated depletion of Alix or Tsg101 did not have an effect on WNV release. Molecular modeling suggested that while the 461PXAP464 motif is surface accessible and could potentially interact with cellular proteins required for WNV assembly, the 349YCYL352 motif was found to be internal with Cys350 important for protein folding via disulphide bonding. CONCLUSIONS: The conserved 461PXAP464 and 349YCYL352 motifs in the WNV envelope are indispensable for WNV particle production. Although these motifs bear sequence similarity to retroviral late domains and are essential for WNV assembly, they are functionally distinct suggesting that they are not the typical late domain like motifs of retroviruses and may play a role other than Alix/Tsg101 utilization/dependence.

Antigenic drift of the pandemic 2009 A(H1N1) influenza virus in A ferret model.

Surveillance data indicate that most circulating A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza viruses have remained antigenically similar since they emerged in humans in 2009. However, antigenic drift is likely to occur in the future in response to increasing population immunity induced by infection or vaccination. In this study, sequential passaging of A(H1N1)pdm09 virus by contact transmission through two independent series of suboptimally vaccinated ferrets resulted in selection of variant viruses with an amino acid substitution (N156K, H1 numbering without signal peptide; N159K, H3 numbering without signal peptide; N173K, H1 numbering from first methionine) in a known antigenic site of the viral HA. The N156K HA variant replicated and transmitted efficiently between naïve ferrets and outgrew wildtype virus in vivo in ferrets in the presence and absence of immune pressure. In vitro, in a range of cell culture systems, the N156K variant rapidly adapted, acquiring additional mutations in the viral HA that also potentially affected antigenic properties. The N156K escape mutant was antigenically distinct from wildtype virus as shown by binding of HA-specific antibodies. Glycan binding assays demonstrated the N156K escape mutant had altered receptor binding preferences compared to wildtype virus, which was supported by computational modeling predictions. The N156K substitution, and culture adaptations, have been detected in human A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses with N156K preferentially reported in sequences from original clinical samples rather than cultured isolates. This study demonstrates the ability of the A(H1N1)pdm09 virus to undergo rapid antigenic change to evade a low level vaccine response, while remaining fit in a ferret transmission model of immunization and infection. Furthermore, the potential changes in receptor binding properties that accompany antigenic changes highlight the importance of routine characterization of clinical samples in human A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza surveillance.

The highly pathogenic H7N3 avian influenza strain from July 2012 in Mexico acquired an extended cleavage site through recombination with host 28S rRNA.

BACKGROUND: A characteristic difference between highly and non-highly pathogenic avian influenza strains is the presence of an extended, often multibasic, cleavage motif insertion in the hemagglutinin protein. Such motif is found in H7N3 strains from chicken farm outbreaks in 2012 in Mexico. METHODS: Through phylogenetic, sequence and structural analysis, we try to shed light on the role, prevalence, likelihood of appearance and origin of the inserted cleavage motifs in these H7N3 avian influenza strains. RESULTS: The H7N3 avian influenza strain which caused outbreaks in chicken farms in June/July 2012 in Mexico has a new extended cleavage site which is the likely reason for its high pathogenicity in these birds. This cleavage site appears to have been naturally acquired and was not present in the closest low pathogenic precursors. Structural modeling shows that insertion of a productive cleavage site is quite flexible to accept insertions of different length and with sequences from different possible origins. Different from recent cleavage site insertions, the origin of the insert here is not from the viral genome but from host 28S ribosomal RNA (rRNA) instead. This is a novelty for a natural acquisition as a similar insertion has so far only been observed in a laboratory strain before. Given the abundance of viral and host RNA in infected cells, the acquisition of a pathogenicity-enhancing extended cleavage site through a similar route by other low-pathogenic avian strains in future does not seem unlikely. Important for surveillance of these H7N3 strains, the structural sites known to enhance mammalian airborne transmission are dominated by the characteristic avian residues and the risk of human to human transmission should currently be low but should be monitored for future changes accordingly. CONCLUSIONS: This highly pathogenic H7N3 avian influenza strain acquired a novel extended cleavage site which likely originated from recombination with 28S rRNA from the avian host. Notably, this new virus can infect humans but currently lacks critical host receptor adaptations that would facilitate human to human transmission.

Investigation of causes of oseltamivir chemoprophylaxis failures during influenza A (H1N1-2009) outbreaks.

BACKGROUND: Antiviral post-exposure prophylaxis with oseltamivir has been used as a strategy in mitigating the Influenza A (H1N1-2009) pandemic. There have been few reports of well-documented prophylaxis failures and the reasons for failure. OBJECTIVES: We report herein a series of 10 cases of prophylaxis failures and explore the reasons behind their prophylaxis failure. STUDY DESIGN: In the early pandemic phase, the military employed oseltamivir post-exposure ring-prophylaxis of affected units. From June 22 to July 30, 2009, cases of laboratory-confirmed prophylaxis failures were identified. Nasopharyngeal swabs were collected and tested by PCR. Samples with sufficient RNA material were sent for whole genome sequencing, and screened for mutations that confer oseltamivir resistance, especially the H275Y mutation. RESULTS: Ten cases of laboratory-confirmed prophylaxis failure were identified, with a mean age of 22.3 years. One case was asymptomatic; the remaining 9 had fever or cough but without severe complications. The mean duration of exposure before starting oseltamivir was 1.9 days (SD 0.9), while the mean duration of oseltamivir consumption before symptom onset was 1.9 days (SD 1.4). None of the samples had the H275Y mutation or other known mutations that confer resistance. From the whole genome sequencing, several mutations at the HA (T220S, E275V, T333A, D239G); PB2 (K660R, L607V, V292I); NS1 (F103S), and NP (W104G) gene segments were detected, but none of them were likely to result in anti-viral resistance. CONCLUSIONS: Primary prophylaxis failures exhibited mild symptoms without complications; all did not have the H275Y mutation and were unlikely to result from other mutations.

All that glitters is not gold--founder effects complicate associations of flu mutations to disease severity.

BACKGROUND: The recent 2009 (H1N1) influenza A pandemic saw a rapid spread of the virus to essentially all parts of the world. In the course of its evolution, the virus acquired many mutations, some of which have been investigated in the context of increased severity due to high occurrences in fatal cases. For example, statements such as: "42.9% of individuals who died from laboratory-confirmed cases of the pandemic (H1N1) were infected with the hemagglutinin (HA) Q310 H mutant virus." give the impression that HA-Q310 H would be highly dangerous or important, while careful consideration of all available data suggests that this is unlikely to be the case. RESULTS: We compare the mutations HA-Q310 H, PB2-K340N, HA-D239N and HA-D239G using whole genome phylogenetic trees, structural modeling in their 3 D context and complete epidemiological data from sequences to clinical outcomes. HA-Q310 H and PB2-K340N appear as isolated subtrees in the phylogenetic analysis pointing to founder effects which is consistent with their clustered temporal appearance as well as the lack of an immediate structural basis that could explain a change of phenotypes. Considering the prevailing viral genomic background, shared origin of samples (all from the city of Sao Paulo) and narrow temporal window (all death case samples within 1 month), it becomes clear that HA-Q310 H was actually a generally common mutation in the region at that time which could readily explain its increased occurrence among the few analyzed fatal cases without requiring necessarily an association with severity. In further support of this, we highlight 3 mild cases with the HA-Q310 H mutation. CONCLUSIONS: We argue that claims of severity of any current and future flu mutation need to be critically considered in the light of phylogenetic, structural and detailed epidemiological data to distinguish increased occurrence due to possible founder effects rather than real phenotypic changes.