Savanna woody encroachment is widespread across three continents.

Tropical savannas are a globally extensive biome prone to rapid vegetation change in response to changing environmental conditions. Via a meta-analysis, we quantified savanna woody vegetation change spanning the last century. We found a global trend of woody encroachment that was established prior the 1980s. However, there is critical regional variation in the magnitude of encroachment. Woody cover is increasing most rapidly in the remaining uncleared savannas of South America, most likely due to fire suppression and land fragmentation. In contrast, Australia has experienced low rates of encroachment. When accounting for land use, African savannas have a mean rate annual woody cover increase two and a half times that of Australian savannas. In Africa, encroachment occurs across multiple land uses and is accelerating over time. In Africa and Australia, rising atmospheric CO2 , changing land management and rainfall are likely causes. We argue that the functional traits of each woody flora, specifically the N-fixing ability and architecture of woody plants, are critical to predicting encroachment over the next century and that African savannas are at high risk of widespread vegetation change.

Savanna vegetation-fire-climate relationships differ among continents.

Ecologists have long sought to understand the factors controlling the structure of savanna vegetation. Using data from 2154 sites in savannas across Africa, Australia, and South America, we found that increasing moisture availability drives increases in fire and tree basal area, whereas fire reduces tree basal area. However, among continents, the magnitude of these effects varied substantially, so that a single model cannot adequately represent savanna woody biomass across these regions. Historical and environmental differences drive the regional variation in the functional relationships between woody vegetation, fire, and climate. These same differences will determine the regional responses of vegetation to future climates, with implications for global carbon stocks.

Deciphering the distribution of the savanna biome.

• We aimed to identify the limits of savanna across Africa, Australia and South America. We based our investigation on the rich history of hypotheses previously examined: that the limits of savanna are variously determined by rainfall, rainfall seasonality, soil fertility and disturbance. • We categorized vegetation on all continents as 'savanna' (open habitats with a C(4) grass layer) or 'not-savanna' (closed habitats with no C(4) grass layer) and used a combination of statistical approaches to examine how the presence of savanna varied as a function of five environmental correlates. • The presence of savanna is constrained by effective rainfall and rainfall seasonality. Soil fertility is regionally important, although the direction of its effect changes relative to rainfall. We identified three continental divergences in the limits of savanna that could not be explained by environment. • Climate and soils do not have a deterministic effect on the distribution of savanna. Over the range of savanna, some proportion of the land is always 'not-savanna'. We reconciled previous contradictory views of savanna limits by developing a new conceptual framework for understanding these limits by categorizing environmental factors into whether they had a positive or negative effect on woody growth and the frequency of disturbance.