Risk of Acute Liver Failure in Patients With Drug-Induced Liver Injury: Evaluation of Hy's Law and a New Prognostic Model.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Few studies have evaluated the ability of laboratory tests to predict risk of acute liver failure (ALF) among patients with drug-induced liver injury (DILI). We aimed to develop a highly sensitive model to identify DILI patients at increased risk of ALF. We compared its performance with that of Hy's Law, which predicts severity of DILI based on levels of alanine aminotransferase or aspartate aminotransferase and total bilirubin, and validated the model in a separate sample. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 15,353 Kaiser Permanente Northern California members diagnosed with DILI from 2004 through 2010, liver aminotransferase levels above the upper limit of normal, and no pre-existing liver disease. Thirty ALF events were confirmed by medical record review. Logistic regression was used to develop prognostic models for ALF based on laboratory results measured at DILI diagnosis. External validation was performed in a sample of 76 patients with DILI at the University of Pennsylvania. RESULTS: Hy's Law identified patients that developed ALF with a high level of specificity (0.92) and negative predictive value (0.99), but low level of sensitivity (0.68) and positive predictive value (0.02). The model we developed, comprising data on platelet count and total bilirubin level, identified patients with ALF with a C statistic of 0.87 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.76-0.96) and enabled calculation of a risk score (Drug-Induced Liver Toxicity ALF Score). We found a cut-off score that identified patients at high risk patients for ALF with a sensitivity value of 0.91 (95% CI, 0.71-0.99) and a specificity value of 0.76 (95% CI, 0.75-0.77). This cut-off score identified patients at high risk for ALF with a high level of sensitivity (0.89; 95% CI, 0.52-1.00) in the validation analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Hy's Law identifies patients with DILI at high risk for ALF with low sensitivity but high specificity. We developed a model (the Drug-Induced Liver Toxicity ALF Score) based on platelet count and total bilirubin level that identifies patients at increased risk for ALF with high sensitivity.

Validity of diagnostic codes and laboratory tests of liver dysfunction to identify acute liver failure events.

PURPOSE: Identification of acute liver failure (ALF) is important for post-marketing surveillance of medications, but the validity of using ICD-9 diagnoses and laboratory data to identify these events within electronic health records is unknown. We examined positive predictive values (PPVs) of hospital ICD-9 diagnoses and laboratory tests of liver dysfunction for identifying ALF within a large, community-based integrated care organization. METHODS: We identified Kaiser Permanente Northern California health plan members (2004-2010) with a hospital diagnosis suggesting ALF (ICD-9 570, 572.2, 572.4, 572.8, 573.3, 573.8, or V42.7) plus an inpatient international normalized ratio ≥1.5 (off warfarin) and total bilirubin ≥5.0 mg/dL. Hospital records were reviewed by hepatologists to adjudicate ALF events. PPVs for confirmed outcomes were determined for individual ICD-9 diagnoses, diagnoses plus prescriptions for hepatic encephalopathy treatment, and combinations of diagnoses in the setting of coagulopathy and hyperbilirubinemia. RESULTS: Among 669 members with no pre-existing liver disease, chart review confirmed ALF in 62 (9%). Despite the presence of co-existing coagulopathy and hyperbilirubinemia, individual ICD-9 diagnoses had low PPVs (range, 5-15%); requiring prescriptions for encephalopathy treatment did not increase PPVs of these diagnoses (range, 2-23%). Hospital diagnoses of other liver disorders (ICD-9 573.8) plus hepatic coma (ICD-9 572.2) had high PPV (67%; 95%CI, 9-99%) but only identified two (3%) ALF events. CONCLUSIONS: Algorithms comprising relevant hospital diagnoses, laboratory evidence of liver dysfunction, and prescriptions for hepatic encephalopathy treatment had low PPVs for confirmed ALF events. Studies of ALF will need to rely on medical records to confirm this outcome.

Population-representative incidence of drug-induced acute liver failure based on an analysis of an integrated health care system.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Medications are a major cause of acute liver failure (ALF) in the United States, but no population-based studies have evaluated the incidence of ALF from drug-induced liver injury. We aimed to determine the incidence and outcomes of drug-induced ALF in an integrated health care system that approximates a population-based cohort. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study using data from the Kaiser Permanente Northern California (KPNC) health care system between January 1, 2004, and December 31, 2010. We included all KPNC members age 18 years and older with 6 months or more of membership and hospitalization for potential ALF. The primary outcome was drug-induced ALF (defined as coagulopathy and hepatic encephalopathy without underlying chronic liver disease), determined by hepatologists who reviewed medical records of all KPNC members with inpatient diagnostic and laboratory criteria suggesting potential ALF. RESULTS: Among 5,484,224 KPNC members between 2004 and 2010, 669 had inpatient diagnostic and laboratory criteria indicating potential ALF. After medical record review, 62 (9.3%) were categorized as having definite or possible ALF, and 32 (51.6%) had a drug-induced etiology (27 definite, 5 possible). Acetaminophen was implicated in 18 events (56.3%), dietary/herbal supplements in 6 events (18.8%), antimicrobials in 2 events (6.3%), and miscellaneous medications in 6 events (18.8%). One patient with acetaminophen-induced ALF died (5.6%; 0.06 events/1,000,000 person-years) compared with 3 patients with non-acetaminophen-induced ALF (21.4%; 0.18/1,000,000 person-years). Overall, 6 patients (18.8%) underwent liver transplantation, and 22 patients (68.8%) were discharged without transplantation. The incidence rates of any definite drug-induced ALF and acetaminophen-induced ALF were 1.61 events/1,000,000 person-years (95% confidence interval, 1.06-2.35) and 1.02 events/1,000,000 person-years (95% confidence interval, 0.59-1.63), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Drug-induced ALF is uncommon, but over-the-counter products and dietary/herbal supplements are its most common causes.

Risk of hip fracture associated with untreated and treated chronic hepatitis B virus infection.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) infection is associated with reduced bone mineral density, but its association with fractures is unknown. Our objectives were to determine whether untreated or treated CHB-infected persons are at increased risk for hip fracture compared to uninfected persons. METHODS: We conducted a cohort study among 18,796 untreated CHB-infected, 7777 treated CHB-infected, and 979,751 randomly sampled uninfected persons within the U.S. Medicaid populations of California, Florida, New York, Ohio, and Pennsylvania (1999-2007). CHB infection was defined by two CHB diagnoses recorded >6 months apart and was classified as treated if a diagnosis was recorded and antiviral therapy was dispensed. After propensity score matching of CHB-infected and uninfected persons, Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of incident hip fracture in: (1) untreated CHB-infected vs. uninfected, and (2) treated CHB-infected vs. uninfected patients. RESULTS: Untreated CHB-infected patients of black race had a higher rate of hip fracture than uninfected black persons (HR, 2.55 [95% CI, 1.42-4.58]). Compared to uninfected persons, relative hazards of hip fracture were increased for untreated white (HR, 1.26 [95% CI, 0.98-1.62]) and Hispanic (HR, 1.36 [95% CI, 0.77-2.40]) CHB-infected patients, and treated black (HR, 3.09 [95% CI, 0.59-16.22]) and white (HR, 1.90 [95% CI, 0.81-4.47]) CHB-infected patients, but these associations were not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Among U.S. Medicaid enrollees, untreated CHB-infected patients of black race had a higher risk of hip fracture than uninfected black persons.

Prevalence of diagnosed chronic hepatitis B infection among U.S. Medicaid enrollees, 2000-2007.

PURPOSE: Few population-based studies have estimated the number of persons diagnosed with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) infection in the United States. Our objective was to estimate the prevalence of diagnosed CHB infection among persons enrolled in the U.S. Medicaid programs of California, Florida, New York, Ohio, and Pennsylvania between 2000 and 2007. As part of our analyses, we confirmed the accuracy of CHB diagnoses within the Medicaid database. METHODS: CHB infection was defined by the presence of two outpatients CHB diagnoses recorded more than 6 months apart. Two clinicians reviewed the medical records of a random sample of patients who met this definition to confirm the diagnosis, which enabled calculation of the positive predictive value (PPV). The period prevalence of diagnosed CHB infection among Medicaid enrollees with at least 6 months of membership from 2000 to 2007 was then estimated, adjusting for both the PPV and estimated sensitivity of our definition of CHB infection. RESULTS: The definition of CHB infection accurately identified clinician-confirmed cases (PPV, 96.3%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 87.3-99.5). Using this definition, 31,046 cases of CHB were diagnosed among 31,358,010 eligible Medicaid members from the five states (prevalence, 9.9 [95% CI, 9.8-10.0] per 10,000). Adjusting for the PPV and estimated sensitivity of our CHB definition, the prevalence of diagnosed CHB infection was 15.6 (95% CI, 15.4-15.7) per 10,000. CONCLUSIONS: Two outpatient CHB diagnoses recorded more than 6 months apart validly identified clinician-confirmed CHB. The prevalence of diagnosed CHB infection among U.S. Medicaid enrollees was 15.6 per 10,000.

Validity of diagnostic codes to identify cases of severe acute liver injury in the US Food and Drug Administration's Mini-Sentinel Distributed Database.

PURPOSE: The validity of International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) codes to identify diagnoses of severe acute liver injury (SALI) is not well known. We examined the positive predictive values (PPVs) of hospital ICD-9-CM diagnoses in identifying SALI among health plan members in the Mini-Sentinel Distributed Database (MSDD) for patients without liver/biliary disease and for those with chronic liver disease (CLD). METHODS: We selected random samples of members (149 without liver/biliary disease; 75 with CLD) with a principal hospital diagnosis suggestive of SALI (ICD-9-CM 570, 572.2, 572.4, 572.8, 573.3, 573.8, or V42.7) in the MSDD (2009-2010). Medical records were reviewed by hepatologists to confirm SALI events. PPVs of codes and code combinations for confirmed SALI were determined by CLD status. RESULTS: Among 105 members with available records and no liver/biliary disease, SALI was confirmed in 26 (PPV, 24.7%; 95%CI, 16.9-34.1%). Combined hospital diagnoses of acute hepatic necrosis (570) and liver disease sequelae (572.8) had high PPV (100%; 95%CI, 59.0-100%) and identified 7/26 (26.9%) events. Among 46 CLD members with available records, SALI was confirmed in 19 (PPV, 41.3%; 95%CI, 27.0-56.8%). Acute hepatic necrosis (570) or hepatorenal syndrome (572.4) plus any other SALI code had a PPV of 83.3% (95%CI, 51.6-97.9%) and identified 10/19 (52.6%) events. CONCLUSIONS: Most individual hospital ICD-9-CM diagnoses had low PPV for confirmed SALI events. Select code combinations had high PPV but did not capture all events.