Investigating the potential impact of 1.5, 2 and 3 °C global warming levels on crop suitability and planting season over West Africa.

West African rainfed agriculture is highly vulnerable to climate variability and change. Global warming is projected to result in higher regional warming and have a strong impact on agriculture. This study specifically examines the impact of global warming levels (GWLs) of 1.5°, 2° and 3 °C relative to 1971-2000 on crop suitability over West Africa. We used 10 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase5 Global Climate Models (CMIP5 GCMs) downscaled by Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) Rossby Centre's regional Atmospheric model version 4, RCA4, to drive Ecocrop, a crop suitability model, for pearl millet, cassava, groundnut, cowpea, maize and plantain. The results show Ecocrop simulated crop suitability spatial representation with higher suitability, observed to the south of latitude 14°N and lower suitability to its north for 1971-2000 for all crops except for plantain (12°N). The model also simulates the best three planting months within the growing season from September-August over the past climate. Projected changes in crop suitability under the three GWLs 1.5-3.0 °C suggest a spatial suitability expansion for legume and cereal crops, notably in the central southern Sahel zone; root and tuber and plantain in the central Guinea-Savanna zone. In contrast, projected decreases in the crop suitability index value are predicted to the south of 14°N for cereals, root and tuber crops; nevertheless, the areas remain suitable for the crops. A delay of between 1-3 months is projected over the region during the planting month under the three GWLs for legumes, pearl millet and plantain. A two month delay in planting is projected in the south, notably over the Guinea and central Savanna zone with earlier planting of about three months in the Savanna-Sahel zones. The effect of GWL2.0 and GWL3.0 warming in comparison to GWL1.5 °C are more dramatic on cereals and root and tuber crops, especially cassava. All the projected changes in simulated crop suitability in response to climatic variables are statistically significant at 99% confidence level. There is also an increasing trend in the projected crop suitability change across the three warming except for cowpea. This study has implications for improving the resilience of crop production to climate changes, and more broadly, to food security in West Africa.

Forensic analysis of explosives using isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS)--part 2: forensic inter-laboratory trial: bulk carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes in a range of chemical compounds (Australia and New Zealand).

Comparability of data over time and between laboratories is a key issue for consideration in the development of global databases, and more broadly for quality assurance in general. One mechanism that can be utilized for evaluating traceability is an inter-laboratory trial. This paper addresses an inter-laboratory trial conducted across a number of Australian and New Zealand isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) laboratories. The main objective of this trial was to determine whether IRMS laboratories in these countries would record comparable values for the distributed samples. Four carbon containing and four nitrogen containing compounds were distributed to seven laboratories in Australia and one in New Zealand. The laboratories were requested to analyze the samples using their standard procedures. The data from each laboratory was evaluated collectively using International Standard ISO 13528 (Statistical methods for use in proficiency testing by inter-laboratory comparisons). "Warning signals" were raised against one participant in this trial. "Action signals" requiring corrective action were raised against four participants. These participants reviewed the data and possible sources for the discrepancies. This inter-laboratory trial was successful in providing an initial snapshot of the potential for traceability between the participating laboratories. The statistical methods described in this article could be used as a model for others needing to evaluate stable isotope results derived from multiple laboratories, e.g., inter-laboratory trials/proficiency testing. Ongoing trials will be conducted to improve traceability across the Australian and New Zealand IRMS community.

Forensic analysis of explosives using isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS)--part 1: instrument validation of the DELTAplusXP IRMS for bulk nitrogen isotope ratio measurements.

A significant amount of research has been conducted into the use of stable isotopes to assist in determining the origin of various materials. The research conducted in the forensic field shows the potential of isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) to provide a level of discrimination not achievable utilizing traditional forensic techniques. Despite the research there have been few, if any, publications addressing the validation and measurement uncertainty of the technique for forensic applications. This study, the first in a planned series, presents validation data for the measurement of bulk nitrogen isotope ratios in ammonium nitrate (AN) using the DELTA(plus)XP (Thermo Finnigan) IRMS instrument equipped with a ConFlo III interface and FlashEA 1112 elemental analyzer (EA). Appropriate laboratory standards, analytical methods and correction calculations were developed and evaluated. A validation protocol was developed in line with the guidelines provided by the National Association of Testing Authorities, Australia (NATA). Performance characteristics including: accuracy, precision/repeatability, reproducibility/ruggedness, robustness, linear range, and measurement uncertainty were evaluated for the measurement of nitrogen isotope ratios in AN. AN (99.5%) and ammonium thiocyanate (99.99+%) were determined to be the most suitable laboratory standards and were calibrated against international standards (certified reference materials). All performance characteristics were within an acceptable range when potential uncertainties, including the manufacturer's uncertainty of the technique and standards, were taken into account. The experiments described in this article could be used as a model for validation of other instruments for similar purposes. Later studies in this series will address the more general issue of demonstrating that the IRMS technique is scientifically sound and fit-for-purpose in the forensic explosives analysis field.

Forensic analysis of explosives using isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS)--discrimination of ammonium nitrate sources.

An evaluation was undertaken to determine if isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) could assist in the investigation of complex forensic cases by providing a level of discrimination not achievable utilising traditional forensic techniques. The focus of the research was on ammonium nitrate (AN), a common oxidiser used in improvised explosive mixtures. The potential value of IRMS to attribute Australian AN samples to the manufacturing source was demonstrated through the development of a preliminary AN classification scheme based on nitrogen isotopes. Although the discrimination utilising nitrogen isotopes alone was limited and only relevant to samples from the three Australian manufacturers during the evaluated time period, the classification scheme has potential as an investigative aid. Combining oxygen and hydrogen stable isotope values permitted the differentiation of AN prills from three different Australian manufacturers. Samples from five different overseas sources could be differentiated utilising a combination of the nitrogen, oxygen and hydrogen isotope values. Limited differentiation between Australian and overseas prills was achieved for the samples analysed. The comparison of nitrogen isotope values from intact AN prill samples with those from post-blast AN prill residues highlighted that the nitrogen isotopic composition of the prills was not maintained post-blast; hence, limiting the technique to analysis of un-reacted explosive material.

Forensic analysis of explosives using isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS)--preliminary study on TATP and PETN.

The application of isotopic techniques to investigations requiring the provision of evidence to a Court is limited. The objective of this research was to investigate the application of light stable isotopes and isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) to solve complex forensic cases by providing a level of discrimination not achievable utilising traditional forensic techniques. Due to the current threat of organic peroxide explosives, such as triacetone triperoxide (TATP), research was undertaken to determine the potential of IRMS to differentiate samples of TATP that had been manufactured utilising different starting materials and/or manufacturing processes. In addition, due to the prevalence of pentaerythritoltetranitrate (PETN) in detonators, detonating cord, and boosters, the potential of the IRMS technique to differentiate PETN samples from different sources was also investigated. Carbon isotope values were measured in fourteen TATP samples, with three definite groups appearing in the initial sample set based on the carbon data alone. Four additional TATP samples (in a second set of samples) were distinguishable utilising the carbon and hydrogen isotopic compositions individually, and also in combination with the oxygen isotope values. The 3D plot of the carbon, oxygen and hydrogen data demonstrated the clear discrimination of the four samples of TATP. The carbon and nitrogen isotope values measured from fifteen PETN samples, allowed samples from different sources to be readily discriminated. This paper demonstrates the successful application of IRMS to the analysis of explosives of forensic interest to assist in discriminating samples from different sources. This research represents a preliminary evaluation of the IRMS technique for the measurement of stable isotope values in TATP and PETN samples, and supports the dedication of resources for a full evaluation of this application in order to achieve Court reportable IRMS results.