Mapping of Ebola virus spillover: Suitability and seasonal variability at the landscape scale.

The unexpected Ebola virus outbreak in West Africa in 2014 involving the Zaire ebolavirus made clear that other regions outside Central Africa, its previously documented niche, were at risk of future epidemics. The complex transmission cycle and a lack of epidemiological data make mapping areas at risk of the disease challenging. We used a Geographic Information System-based multicriteria evaluation (GIS-MCE), a knowledge-based approach, to identify areas suitable for Ebola virus spillover to humans in regions of Guinea, Congo and Gabon where Ebola viruses already emerged. We identified environmental, climatic and anthropogenic risk factors and potential hosts from a literature review. Geographical data layers, representing risk factors, were combined to produce suitability maps of Ebola virus spillover at the landscape scale. Our maps show high spatial and temporal variability in the suitability for Ebola virus spillover at a fine regional scale. Reported spillover events fell in areas of intermediate to high suitability in our maps, and a sensitivity analysis showed that the maps produced were robust. There are still important gaps in our knowledge about what factors are associated with the risk of Ebola virus spillover. As more information becomes available, maps produced using the GIS-MCE approach can be easily updated to improve surveillance and the prevention of future outbreaks.

Entropy as a Measure of Attractiveness and Socioeconomic Complexity in Rio de Janeiro Metropolitan Area.

Defining and measuring spatial inequalities across the urban environment remains a complex and elusive task which has been facilitated by the increasing availability of large geolocated databases. In this study, we rely on a mobile phone dataset and an entropy-based metric to measure the attractiveness of a location in the Rio de Janeiro Metropolitan Area (Brazil) as the diversity of visitors' location of residence. The results show that the attractiveness of a given location measured by entropy is an important descriptor of the socioeconomic status of the location, and can thus be used as a proxy for complex socioeconomic indicators.

On the importance of trip destination for modelling individual human mobility patterns.

Obtaining insights into human mobility patterns and being able to reproduce them accurately is of the utmost importance in a wide range of applications from public health, to transport and urban planning. Still the relationship between the effort individuals will invest in a trip and the importance of its purpose is not taken into account in individual mobility models that can be found in the recent literature. Here, we address this issue by introducing a model hypothesizing a relation between the importance of a trip and the distance travelled. In most practical cases, quantifying such importance is undoable. We overcome this difficulty by focusing on shopping trips (for which we have empirical data) and by taking the price of items as a proxy. Our model is able to reproduce the long-tailed distribution in travel distances empirically observed and to explain the scaling relationship between distance travelled and item value found in the data.

Mapping livestock movements in Sahelian Africa.

In the dominant livestock systems of Sahelian countries herds have to move across territories. Their mobility is often a source of conflict with farmers in the areas crossed, and helps spread diseases such as Rift Valley Fever. Knowledge of the routes followed by herds is therefore core to guiding the implementation of preventive and control measures for transboundary animal diseases, land use planning and conflict management. However, the lack of quantitative data on livestock movements, together with the high temporal and spatial variability of herd movements, has so far hampered the production of fine resolution maps of animal movements. This paper proposes a general framework for mapping potential paths for livestock movements and identifying areas of high animal passage potential for those movements. The method consists in combining the information contained in livestock mobility networks with landscape connectivity, based on different mobility conductance layers. We illustrate our approach with a livestock mobility network in Senegal and Mauritania in the 2014 dry and wet seasons.

Scaling in the recovery of urban transportation systems from massive events.

Public transportation is a fundamental infrastructure for life in cities. Although its capacity is prepared for daily demand, congestion may rise when huge crowds gather in demonstrations, concerts or sport events. In this work, we study the robustness of public transportation networks by means of a stylized model mimicking individual mobility through the system. We find scaling relations in the delay suffered by both event participants and other citizens doing their usual traveling in the background. The delay is a function of the number of participants and the event location. The model is solved analytically in lattices proving the existence of scaling relations and the connection of their exponents to the local dimension. Thereafter, extensive and systematic simulations in eight worldwide cities reveal that a newly proposed measure of local dimension explains the exponents found in the network recovery. Our methodology allows to dynamically probe the local dimensionality of a transportation network and identify the most vulnerable spots in cities for the celebration of massive events.

Coexistence of supply chains in a city's food supply: a factor for resilience?

The objective of this article is to propose and test an approach to characterise a city's supply system and analyse its resilience. Anchored in economic and network sociology, the approach has been enriched by contributions from management sciences and geomatics, which have made it possible to conceptualise a city's supply system as a network that is both social and spatialised, structured by operators and circulating differentiated products. Tested in the city of Montpellier, a signatory of the Milan Pact, this research was based on the production of primary data from a variety of sellers and suppliers. While confirming the complementarity between short and long supply chains, the results show more broadly how the articulation of three spatialised markets favours the resilience of the city's supply, even if it is also a source of vulnerability. Therefore, these results make an original contribution to the intersection of research on the resilience of urban supply and on coexistence in food systems, while also calling for further research.

Field theory for recurrent mobility.

Understanding human mobility is crucial for applications such as forecasting epidemic spreading, planning transport infrastructure and urbanism in general. While, traditionally, mobility information has been collected via surveys, the pervasive adoption of mobile technologies has brought a wealth of (real time) data. The easy access to this information opens the door to study theoretical questions so far unexplored. In this work, we show for a series of worldwide cities that commuting daily flows can be mapped into a well behaved vector field, fulfilling the divergence theorem and which is, besides, irrotational. This property allows us to define a potential for the field that can become a major instrument to determine separate mobility basins and discern contiguous urban areas. We also show that empirical fluxes and potentials can be well reproduced and analytically characterized using the so-called gravity model, while other models based on intervening opportunities have serious difficulties.

Biogeographical network analysis of plant species distribution in the Mediterranean region.

The delimitation of bioregions helps to understand historical and ecological drivers of species distribution. In this work, we performed a network analysis of the spatial distribution patterns of plants in south of France (Languedoc-Roussillon and Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur) to analyze the biogeographical structure of the French Mediterranean flora at different scales. We used a network approach to identify and characterize biogeographical regions, based on a large database containing 2.5 million of geolocalized plant records corresponding to more than 3,500 plant species. This methodology is performed following five steps, from the biogeographical bipartite network construction to the identification of biogeographical regions under the form of spatial network communities, the analysis of their interactions, and the identification of clusters of plant species based on the species contribution to the biogeographical regions. First, we identified two sub-networks that distinguish Mediterranean and temperate biota. Then, we separated eight statistically significant bioregions that present a complex spatial structure. Some of them are spatially well delimited and match with particular geological entities. On the other hand, fuzzy transitions arise between adjacent bioregions that share a common geological setting, but are spread along a climatic gradient. The proposed network approach illustrates the biogeographical structure of the flora in southern France and provides precise insights into the relationships between bioregions. This approach sheds light on ecological drivers shaping the distribution of Mediterranean biota: The interplay between a climatic gradient and geological substrate shapes biodiversity patterns. Finally, this work exemplifies why fragmented distributions are common in the Mediterranean region, isolating groups of species that share a similar eco-evolutionary history.

Multiscale socio-ecological networks in the age of information.

Interactions between people and ecological systems, through leisure or tourism activities, form a complex socio-ecological spatial network. The analysis of the benefits people derive from their interactions with nature-also referred to as cultural ecosystem services (CES)-enables a better understanding of these socio-ecological systems. In the age of information, the increasing availability of large social media databases enables a better understanding of complex socio-ecological interactions at an unprecedented spatio-temporal resolution. Within this context, we model and analyze these interactions based on information extracted from geotagged photographs embedded into a multiscale socio-ecological network. We apply this approach to 16 case study sites in Europe using a social media database (Flickr) containing more than 150,000 validated and classified photographs. After evaluating the representativeness of the network, we investigate the impact of visitors' origin on the distribution of socio-ecological interactions at different scales. First at a global scale, we develop a spatial measure of attractiveness and use this to identify four groups of sites. Then, at a local scale, we explore how the distance traveled by the users to reach a site affects the way they interact with this site in space and time. The approach developed here, integrating social media data into a network-based framework, offers a new way of visualizing and modeling interactions between humans and landscapes. Results provide valuable insights for understanding relationships between social demands for CES and the places of their realization, thus allowing for the development of more efficient conservation and planning strategies.

Immigrant community integration in world cities.

As a consequence of the accelerated globalization process, today major cities all over the world are characterized by an increasing multiculturalism. The integration of immigrant communities may be affected by social polarization and spatial segregation. How are these dynamics evolving over time? To what extent the different policies launched to tackle these problems are working? These are critical questions traditionally addressed by studies based on surveys and census data. Such sources are safe to avoid spurious biases, but the data collection becomes an intensive and rather expensive work. Here, we conduct a comprehensive study on immigrant integration in 53 world cities by introducing an innovative approach: an analysis of the spatio-temporal communication patterns of immigrant and local communities based on language detection in Twitter and on novel metrics of spatial integration. We quantify the Power of Integration of cities -their capacity to spatially integrate diverse cultures- and characterize the relations between different cultures when acting as hosts or immigrants.

Crowdsourcing the Robin Hood effect in cities.

Socioeconomic inequalities in cities are embedded in space and result in neighborhood effects, whose harmful consequences have proved very hard to counterbalance efficiently by planning policies alone. Considering redistribution of money flows as a first step toward improved spatial equity, we study a bottom-up approach that would rely on a slight evolution of shopping mobility practices. Building on a database of anonymized card transactions in Madrid and Barcelona, we quantify the mobility effort required to reach a reference situation where commercial income is evenly shared among neighborhoods. The redirections of shopping trips preserve key properties of human mobility, including travel distances. Surprisingly, for both cities only a small fraction (∼5%) of trips need to be modified to reach equality situations, improving even other sustainability indicators. The method could be implemented in mobile applications that would assist individuals in reshaping their shopping practices, to promote the spatial redistribution of opportunities in the city.

Human diffusion and city influence.

Cities are characterized by concentrating population, economic activity and services. However, not all cities are equal and a natural hierarchy at local, regional or global scales spontaneously emerges. In this work, we introduce a method to quantify city influence using geolocated tweets to characterize human mobility. Rome and Paris appear consistently as the cities attracting most diverse visitors. The ratio between locals and non-local visitors turns out to be fundamental for a city to truly be global. Focusing only on urban residents' mobility flows, a city-to-city network can be constructed. This network allows us to analyse centrality measures at different scales. New York and London play a central role on the global scale, while urban rankings suffer substantial changes if the focus is set at a regional level.

Influence of sociodemographic characteristics on human mobility [corrected].

Human mobility has been traditionally studied using surveys that deliver snapshots of population displacement patterns. The growing accessibility to ICT information from portable digital media has recently opened the possibility of exploring human behavior at high spatio-temporal resolutions. Mobile phone records, geolocated tweets, check-ins from Foursquare or geotagged photos, have contributed to this purpose at different scales, from cities to countries, in different world areas. Many previous works lacked, however, details on the individuals' attributes such as age or gender. In this work, we analyze credit-card records from Barcelona and Madrid and by examining the geolocated credit-card transactions of individuals living in the two provinces, we find that the mobility patterns vary according to gender, age and occupation. Differences in distance traveled and travel purpose are observed between younger and older people, but, curiously, either between males and females of similar age. While mobility displays some generic features, here we show that sociodemographic characteristics play a relevant role and must be taken into account for mobility and epidemiological modelization.

Uncovering the spatial structure of mobility networks.

The extraction of a clear and simple footprint of the structure of large, weighted and directed networks is a general problem that has relevance for many applications. An important example is seen in origin-destination matrices, which contain the complete information on commuting flows, but are difficult to analyze and compare. We propose here a versatile method, which extracts a coarse-grained signature of mobility networks, under the form of a 2 × 2 matrix that separates the flows into four categories. We apply this method to origin-destination matrices extracted from mobile phone data recorded in 31 Spanish cities. We show that these cities essentially differ by their proportion of two types of flows: integrated (between residential and employment hotspots) and random flows, whose importance increases with city size. Finally, the method allows the determination of categories of networks, and in the mobility case, the classification of cities according to their commuting structure.

Comparing and modelling land use organization in cities.

The advent of geolocated information and communication technologies opens the possibility of exploring how people use space in cities, bringing an important new tool for urban scientists and planners, especially for regions where data are scarce or not available. Here we apply a functional network approach to determine land use patterns from mobile phone records. The versatility of the method allows us to run a systematic comparison between Spanish cities of various sizes. The method detects four major land use types that correspond to different temporal patterns. The proportion of these types, their spatial organization and scaling show a strong similarity between all cities that breaks down at a very local scale, where land use mixing is specific to each urban area. Finally, we introduce a model inspired by Schelling's segregation, able to explain and reproduce these results with simple interaction rules between different land uses.

Cross-checking different sources of mobility information.

The pervasive use of new mobile devices has allowed a better characterization in space and time of human concentrations and mobility in general. Besides its theoretical interest, describing mobility is of great importance for a number of practical applications ranging from the forecast of disease spreading to the design of new spaces in urban environments. While classical data sources, such as surveys or census, have a limited level of geographical resolution (e.g., districts, municipalities, counties are typically used) or are restricted to generic workdays or weekends, the data coming from mobile devices can be precisely located both in time and space. Most previous works have used a single data source to study human mobility patterns. Here we perform instead a cross-check analysis by comparing results obtained with data collected from three different sources: Twitter, census, and cell phones. The analysis is focused on the urban areas of Barcelona and Madrid, for which data of the three types is available. We assess the correlation between the datasets on different aspects: the spatial distribution of people concentration, the temporal evolution of people density, and the mobility patterns of individuals. Our results show that the three data sources are providing comparable information. Even though the representativeness of Twitter geolocated data is lower than that of mobile phone and census data, the correlations between the population density profiles and mobility patterns detected by the three datasets are close to one in a grid with cells of 2×2 and 1×1 square kilometers. This level of correlation supports the feasibility of interchanging the three data sources at the spatio-temporal scales considered.

Tweets on the road.

The pervasiveness of mobile devices, which is increasing daily, is generating a vast amount of geo-located data allowing us to gain further insights into human behaviors. In particular, this new technology enables users to communicate through mobile social media applications, such as Twitter, anytime and anywhere. Thus, geo-located tweets offer the possibility to carry out in-depth studies on human mobility. In this paper, we study the use of Twitter in transportation by identifying tweets posted from roads and rails in Europe between September 2012 and November 2013. We compute the percentage of highway and railway segments covered by tweets in 39 countries. The coverages are very different from country to country and their variability can be partially explained by differences in Twitter penetration rates. Still, some of these differences might be related to cultural factors regarding mobility habits and interacting socially online. Analyzing particular road sectors, our results show a positive correlation between the number of tweets on the road and the Average Annual Daily Traffic on highways in France and in the UK. Transport modality can be studied with these data as well, for which we discover very heterogeneous usage patterns across the continent.

From mobile phone data to the spatial structure of cities.

Pervasive infrastructures, such as cell phone networks, enable to capture large amounts of human behavioral data but also provide information about the structure of cities and their dynamical properties. In this article, we focus on these last aspects by studying phone data recorded during 55 days in 31 Spanish cities. We first define an urban dilatation index which measures how the average distance between individuals evolves during the day, allowing us to highlight different types of city structure. We then focus on hotspots, the most crowded places in the city. We propose a parameter free method to detect them and to test the robustness of our results. The number of these hotspots scales sublinearly with the population size, a result in agreement with previous theoretical arguments and measures on employment datasets. We study the lifetime of these hotspots and show in particular that the hierarchy of permanent ones, which constitute the 'heart' of the city, is very stable whatever the size of the city. The spatial structure of these hotspots is also of interest and allows us to distinguish different categories of cities, from monocentric and "segregated" where the spatial distribution is very dependent on land use, to polycentric where the spatial mixing between land uses is much more important. These results point towards the possibility of a new, quantitative classification of cities using high resolution spatio-temporal data.

A universal model of commuting networks.

We show that a recently proposed model generates accurate commuting networks on 80 case studies from different regions of the world (Europe and United-States) at different scales (e.g. municipalities, counties, regions). The model takes as input the number of commuters coming in and out of each geographic unit and generates the matrix of commuting flows between the units. The single parameter of the model follows a universal law that depends only on the scale of the geographic units. We show that our model significantly outperforms two other approaches proposing a universal commuting model [1], [2], particularly when the geographic units are small (e.g. municipalities).