Remotely sensing potential climate change tipping points across scales.

Potential climate tipping points pose a growing risk for societies, and policy is calling for improved anticipation of them. Satellite remote sensing can play a unique role in identifying and anticipating tipping phenomena across scales. Where satellite records are too short for temporal early warning of tipping points, complementary spatial indicators can leverage the exceptional spatial-temporal coverage of remotely sensed data to detect changing resilience of vulnerable systems. Combining Earth observation with Earth system models can improve process-based understanding of tipping points, their interactions, and potential tipping cascades. Such fine-resolution sensing can support climate tipping point risk management across scales.

Erratum: Publisher Correction: Enhanced clay formation key in sustaining the Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1038/s41561-023-01234-y.].

The vulnerability of aging states: A survival analysis across premodern societies.

How states and great powers rise and fall is an intriguing enigma of human history. Are there any patterns? Do polities become more vulnerable over time as they age? We analyze longevity in hundreds of premodern states using survival analysis to help provide initial insights into these questions. This approach is commonly used to study the risk of death in biological organisms or failure in mechanical systems. The results reveal that the risk of state termination increased steeply over approximately the first two centuries after formation and stabilized thereafter. This provides the first quantitative support for the hypothesis that the resilience of political states decreases over time. Potential mechanisms that could drive such declining resilience include environmental degradation, increasing complexity, growing inequality, and extractive institutions. While the cases are from premodern times, such dynamics and drivers of vulnerability may remain relevant today.

Enhanced clay formation key in sustaining the Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum.

The Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum (around 40 million years ago) was a roughly 400,000-year-long global warming phase associated with an increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations and deep-ocean acidification that interrupted the Eocene's long-term cooling trend. The unusually long duration, compared with early Eocene global warming phases, is puzzling as temperature-dependent silicate weathering should have provided a negative feedback, drawing down CO2 over this timescale. Here we investigate silicate weathering during this climate warming event by measuring lithium isotope ratios (reported as δ7Li), which are a tracer for silicate weathering processes, from a suite of open-ocean carbonate-rich sediments. We find a positive δ7Li excursion-the only one identified for a warming event so far -of ~3‰. Box model simulations support this signal to reflect a global shift from congruent weathering, with secondary mineral dissolution, to incongruent weathering, with secondary mineral formation. We surmise that, before the climatic optimum, there was considerable soil shielding of the continents. An increase in continental volcanism initiated the warming event, but it was sustained by an increase in clay formation, which sequestered carbonate-forming cations, short-circuiting the carbonate-silicate cycle. Clay mineral dynamics may play an important role in the carbon cycle for climatic events occurring over intermediate (i.e., 100,000 year) timeframes.

On the potential roles of phosphorus in the early evolution of energy metabolism.

Energy metabolism in extant life is centered around phosphate and the energy-dense phosphoanhydride bonds of adenosine triphosphate (ATP), a deeply conserved and ancient bioenergetic system. Yet, ATP synthesis relies on numerous complex enzymes and has an autocatalytic requirement for ATP itself. This implies the existence of evolutionarily simpler bioenergetic pathways and potentially primordial alternatives to ATP. The centrality of phosphate in modern bioenergetics, coupled with the energetic properties of phosphorylated compounds, may suggest that primordial precursors to ATP also utilized phosphate in compounds such as pyrophosphate, acetyl phosphate and polyphosphate. However, bioavailable phosphate may have been notably scarce on the early Earth, raising doubts about the roles that phosphorylated molecules might have played in the early evolution of life. A largely overlooked phosphorus redox cycle on the ancient Earth might have provided phosphorus and energy, with reduced phosphorus compounds potentially playing a key role in the early evolution of energy metabolism. Here, we speculate on the biological phosphorus compounds that may have acted as primordial energy currencies, sources of environmental energy, or sources of phosphorus for the synthesis of phosphorylated energy currencies. This review encompasses discussions on the evolutionary history of modern bioenergetics, and specifically those pathways with primordial relevance, and the geochemistry of bioavailable phosphorus on the ancient Earth. We highlight the importance of phosphorus, not only in the form of phosphate, to early biology and suggest future directions of study that may improve our understanding of the early evolution of bioenergetics.

Safe and just Earth system boundaries.

The stability and resilience of the Earth system and human well-being are inseparably linked1-3, yet their interdependencies are generally under-recognized; consequently, they are often treated independently4,5. Here, we use modelling and literature assessment to quantify safe and just Earth system boundaries (ESBs) for climate, the biosphere, water and nutrient cycles, and aerosols at global and subglobal scales. We propose ESBs for maintaining the resilience and stability of the Earth system (safe ESBs) and minimizing exposure to significant harm to humans from Earth system change (a necessary but not sufficient condition for justice)4. The stricter of the safe or just boundaries sets the integrated safe and just ESB. Our findings show that justice considerations constrain the integrated ESBs more than safety considerations for climate and atmospheric aerosol loading. Seven of eight globally quantified safe and just ESBs and at least two regional safe and just ESBs in over half of global land area are already exceeded. We propose that our assessment provides a quantitative foundation for safeguarding the global commons for all people now and into the future.

Protecting peatlands requires understanding stakeholder perceptions and relational values: A case study of peatlands in the Yorkshire Dales.

Sustainable peatland management is a global environmental governance challenge given peat's carbon storage. Peatlands worldwide are sites of contested demands between stakeholders with distinct management priorities. In the United Kingdom, peatland management is a focus of political interest for nature-based solutions (NBS), causing tensions with land managers who feel their traditional knowledge is undervalued. Using Q-method (a semi-quantitative method for clarifying distinct viewpoints) with estate managers, gamekeepers, farmers, and employees of land-owning organisations, we explored perceptions around changing upland management in the Yorkshire Dales. Land managers hold strong values of ownership, aesthetics, and stewardship. The prospect of changing management causes fears of losing these relational values alongside instrumental values. Yorkshire Dales stakeholders agreed on NBS aims (reducing flooding, limiting wildfires, protecting wild birds), but disagreed on methods to achieve these. Our research supports engaging local stakeholders at all stages of peatland protection schemes to minimise resentment towards top-down management.

Universal early warning signals of phase transitions in climate systems.

The potential for complex systems to exhibit tipping points in which an equilibrium state undergoes a sudden and often irreversible shift is well established, but prediction of these events using standard forecast modelling techniques is quite difficult. This has led to the development of an alternative suite of methods that seek to identify signatures of critical phenomena in data, which are expected to occur in advance of many classes of dynamical bifurcation. Crucially, the manifestations of these critical phenomena are generic across a variety of systems, meaning that data-intensive deep learning methods can be trained on (abundant) synthetic data and plausibly prove effective when transferred to (more limited) empirical datasets. This paper provides a proof of concept for this approach as applied to lattice phase transitions: a deep neural network trained exclusively on two-dimensional Ising model phase transitions is tested on a number of real and simulated climate systems with considerable success. Its accuracy frequently surpasses that of conventional statistical indicators, with performance shown to be consistently improved by the inclusion of spatial indicators. Tools such as this may offer valuable insight into climate tipping events, as remote sensing measurements provide increasingly abundant data on complex geospatially resolved Earth systems.

The origin and early evolution of plants.

Plant (archaeplastid) evolution has transformed the biosphere, but we are only now beginning to learn how this took place through comparative genomics, phylogenetics, and the fossil record. This has illuminated the phylogeny of Archaeplastida, Viridiplantae, and Streptophyta, and has resolved the evolution of key characters, genes, and genomes - revealing that many key innovations evolved long before the clades with which they have been casually associated. Molecular clock analyses estimate that Streptophyta and Viridiplantae emerged in the late Mesoproterozoic to late Neoproterozoic, whereas Archaeplastida emerged in the late-mid Palaeoproterozoic. Together, these insights inform on the coevolution of plants and the Earth system that transformed ecology and global biogeochemical cycles, increased weathering, and precipitated snowball Earth events, during which they would have been key to oxygen production and net primary productivity (NPP).

Extreme variability in atmospheric oxygen levels in the late Precambrian.

Mapping the history of atmospheric O2 during the late Precambrian is vital for evaluating potential links to animal evolution. Ancient O2 levels are often inferred from geochemical analyses of marine sediments, leading to the assumption that the Earth experienced a stepwise increase in atmospheric O2 during the Neoproterozoic. However, the nature of this hypothesized oxygenation event remains unknown, with suggestions of a more dynamic O2 history in the oceans and major uncertainty over any direct connection between the marine realm and atmospheric O2. Here, we present a continuous quantitative reconstruction of atmospheric O2 over the past 1.5 billion years using an isotope mass balance approach that combines bulk geochemistry and tectonic recycling rate calculations. We predict that atmospheric O2 levels during the Neoproterozoic oscillated between ~1 and ~50% of the present atmospheric level. We conclude that there was no simple unidirectional rise in atmospheric O2 during the Neoproterozoic, and the first animals evolved against a backdrop of extreme O2 variability.

Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points.

Climate tipping points occur when change in a part of the climate system becomes self-perpetuating beyond a warming threshold, leading to substantial Earth system impacts. Synthesizing paleoclimate, observational, and model-based studies, we provide a revised shortlist of global "core" tipping elements and regional "impact" tipping elements and their temperature thresholds. Current global warming of ~1.1°C above preindustrial temperatures already lies within the lower end of some tipping point uncertainty ranges. Several tipping points may be triggered in the Paris Agreement range of 1.5 to <2°C global warming, with many more likely at the 2 to 3°C of warming expected on current policy trajectories. This strengthens the evidence base for urgent action to mitigate climate change and to develop improved tipping point risk assessment, early warning capability, and adaptation strategies.

Destabilisation of the Subpolar North Atlantic prior to the Little Ice Age.

The cooling transition into the Little Ice Age was the last notable shift in the climate system prior to anthropogenic global warming. It is hypothesised that sea-ice to ocean feedbacks sustained an initial cooling into the Little Ice Age by weakening the subpolar gyre circulation; a system that has been proposed to exhibit bistability. Empirical evidence for bistability within this transition has however been lacking. Using statistical indicators of resilience in three annually-resolved bivalve proxy records from the North Icelandic shelf, we show that the subpolar North Atlantic climate system destabilised during two episodes prior to the Little Ice Age. This loss of resilience indicates reduced attraction to one stable state, and a system vulnerable to an abrupt transition. The two episodes preceded wider subpolar North Atlantic change, consistent with subpolar gyre destabilisation and the approach of a tipping point, potentially heralding the transition to Little Ice Age conditions.

James Lovelock (1919-2022).

Father of Earth system science.

Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios.

Prudent risk management requires consideration of bad-to-worst-case scenarios. Yet, for climate change, such potential futures are poorly understood. Could anthropogenic climate change result in worldwide societal collapse or even eventual human extinction? At present, this is a dangerously underexplored topic. Yet there are ample reasons to suspect that climate change could result in a global catastrophe. Analyzing the mechanisms for these extreme consequences could help galvanize action, improve resilience, and inform policy, including emergency responses. We outline current knowledge about the likelihood of extreme climate change, discuss why understanding bad-to-worst cases is vital, articulate reasons for concern about catastrophic outcomes, define key terms, and put forward a research agenda. The proposed agenda covers four main questions: 1) What is the potential for climate change to drive mass extinction events? 2) What are the mechanisms that could result in human mass mortality and morbidity? 3) What are human societies' vulnerabilities to climate-triggered risk cascades, such as from conflict, political instability, and systemic financial risk? 4) How can these multiple strands of evidence-together with other global dangers-be usefully synthesized into an "integrated catastrophe assessment"? It is time for the scientific community to grapple with the challenge of better understanding catastrophic climate change.

A resilience sensing system for the biosphere.

We are in a climate and ecological emergency, where climate change and direct anthropogenic interference with the biosphere are risking abrupt and/or irreversible changes that threaten our life-support systems. Efforts are underway to increase the resilience of some ecosystems that are under threat, yet collective awareness and action are modest at best. Here, we highlight the potential for a biosphere resilience sensing system to make it easier to see where things are going wrong, and to see whether deliberate efforts to make things better are working. We focus on global resilience sensing of the terrestrial biosphere at high spatial and temporal resolution through satellite remote sensing, utilizing the generic mathematical behaviour of complex systems-loss of resilience corresponds to slower recovery from perturbations, gain of resilience equates to faster recovery. We consider what subset of biosphere resilience remote sensing can monitor, critically reviewing existing studies. Then we present illustrative, global results for vegetation resilience and trends in resilience over the last 20 years, from both satellite data and model simulations. We close by discussing how resilience sensing nested across global, biome-ecoregion, and local ecosystem scales could aid management and governance at these different scales, and identify priorities for further work. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological complexity and the biosphere: the next 30 years'.