Agent-based modeling of COVID-19 outbreaks for New York state and UK: Parameter identification algorithm.

This paper uses Covasim, an agent-based model (ABM) of COVID-19, to evaluate and scenarios of epidemic spread in New York State (USA) and the UK. Epidemiological parameters such as contagiousness (virus transmission rate), initial number of infected people, and probability of being tested depend on the region's demographic and geographical features, the containment measures introduced; they are calibrated to data about COVID-19 spread in the region of interest. At the first stage of our study, epidemiological data (numbers of people tested, diagnoses, critical cases, hospitalizations, and deaths) for each of the mentioned regions were analyzed. The data were characterized in terms of seasonality, stationarity, and dependency spaces, and were extrapolated using machine learning techniques to specify unknown epidemiological parameters of the model. At the second stage, the Optuna optimizer based on the tree Parzen estimation method for objective function minimization was applied to determine the model's unknown parameters. The model was validated with the historical data of 2020. The modeled results of COVID-19 spread in New York State and the UK have demonstrated that if the level of testing and containment measures is preserved, the number of positive cases in New York State remain the same during March of 2021, while in the UK it will reduce.

Motion correction of free-breathing magnetic resonance renography using model-driven registration.

INTRODUCTION: Model-driven registration (MDR) is a general approach to remove patient motion in quantitative imaging. In this study, we investigate whether MDR can effectively correct the motion in free-breathing MR renography (MRR). MATERIALS AND METHODS: MDR was generalised to linear tracer-kinetic models and implemented using 2D or 3D free-form deformations (FFD) with multi-resolution and gradient descent optimization. MDR was evaluated using a kidney-mimicking digital reference object (DRO) and free-breathing patient data acquired at high temporal resolution in multi-slice 2D (5 patients) and 3D acquisitions (8 patients). Registration accuracy was assessed using comparison to ground truth DRO, calculating the Hausdorff distance (HD) between ground truth masks with segmentations and visual evaluation of dynamic images, signal-time courses and parametric maps (all data). RESULTS: DRO data showed that the bias and precision of parameter maps after MDR are indistinguishable from motion-free data. MDR led to reduction in HD (HDunregistered = 9.98 ± 9.76, HDregistered = 1.63 ± 0.49). Visual inspection showed that MDR effectively removed motion effects in the dynamic data, leading to a clear improvement in anatomical delineation on parametric maps and a reduction in motion-induced oscillations on signal-time courses. DISCUSSION: MDR provides effective motion correction of MRR in synthetic and patient data. Future work is needed to compare the performance against other more established methods.

Fitting the two-compartment model in DCE-MRI by linear inversion.

PURPOSE: Model fitting of dynamic contrast-enhanced-magnetic resonance imaging-MRI data with nonlinear least squares (NLLS) methods is slow and may be biased by the choice of initial values. The aim of this study was to develop and evaluate a linear least squares (LLS) method to fit the two-compartment exchange and -filtration models. METHODS: A second-order linear differential equation for the measured concentrations was derived where model parameters act as coefficients. Simulations of normal and pathological data were performed to determine calculation time, accuracy and precision under different noise levels and temporal resolutions. Performance of the LLS was evaluated by comparison against the NLLS. RESULTS: The LLS method is about 200 times faster, which reduces the calculation times for a 256 × 256 MR slice from 9 min to 3 s. For ideal data with low noise and high temporal resolution the LLS and NLLS were equally accurate and precise. The LLS was more accurate and precise than the NLLS at low temporal resolution, but less accurate at high noise levels. CONCLUSION: The data show that the LLS leads to a significant reduction in calculation times, and more reliable results at low noise levels. At higher noise levels the LLS becomes exceedingly inaccurate compared to the NLLS, but this may be improved using a suitable weighting strategy. Magn Reson Med 76:998-1006, 2016. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.