[Analysis and Prediction of Health Risk from Heavy Metals in Drinking Water Sources Based on Time Series Model].

Health risk analysis can predict and control the risks posed by heavy metals, especially in drinking water, which is a highly sensitive environmental receptors. In order to evaluate heavy metal pollution in drinking water, the monthly average concentrations of As, Cd, Cu, Hg, Ni, and Zn were used to assess the health risk between January 2015 and December 2018 in a drinking water source. Furthermore, Spearman rank correlation coefficient and the ARIMA model were used to analyze temporal variations. The results showed that the monthly average concentrations of heavy metals exceeded the class Ⅲ values as specified by Chinese environmental quality standard for surface water(GB 3838-2002), especially Hg with a minimum monthly average four times more than that set by the standard limits. Overall, the order of carcinogenic risk of As and Cd was decreased; the non-carcinogenic risk of Zn, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Hg was increased. Further, the comprehensive non-carcinogenic risk for adults was lower than 1 throughout the study period except February 2015, when the comprehensive non-carcinogenic risk for children was lower than or close to 1 after October 2017, and the comprehensive carcinogenic risk for children was more than 10-4. Meanwhile, the children's health risks are higher than that for adults, with the main health risk characteristic factors of As, Cd, and Hg. The Spearman rank correlation coefficient were -0.714069, -0.773122, and -0.62234, indicating the significant downward trend from 2015 to 2018. However, the children's comprehensive carcinogenic risk, whose average value was 0.000234 much more than 10-4, had significant upward trend in 2018 with Spearman rank correlation coefficient 0.902098. The ARIMA(3,1,3) model was able to predict the comprehensive carcinogenic risk for children from heavy metals in drinking water, and the result indicated the children comprehensive carcinogenic risk should be monitored to ensure levels between 0.000200 and 0.000302. The study has positive significance for risk warning and environmental management compared to the analysis and prediction of health risk from heavy metals in drinking water sources based on time series models.

[Assessment and Spatial Characteristics Analysis of Human Health Risk of Heavy Metals in Cultivated Soil].

Spatial characteristics analysis of the human health risk posed by heavy metals in cultivated soils is of great significance, with the potential to prevent and control soil pollution, protect human health, provide a basis for risk management, etc. In this paper, a methodological system, including a USEPA health risk assessment model, differentiation and factor detector within a geographical detector, and optimized initial model of rank-size theory, was constructed from a geographical perspective. Taking a city in Jiangsu province as the research object, we obtained the spatial differentiation and relative level of human health risk of Cr, Pb, Hg, and Cd in cultivated land by using the methodological system constructed and SPSS and ArcGIS software. The average concentrations of heavy metals (mg·kg-1) in the research area were Cr (65.207 mg·kg-1), Pb (25.486 mg·kg-1), Cd (0.238 mg·kg-1), and Hg (0.045 mg·kg-1), which were lower than the risk control standards for soil contamination of agricultural land in China. The children's non-cancer risk of Cr and Pb and the cancer risk to children and adults of Cr were 2.914385, 1.337503, 4.312679×10-6, and 8.137130×10-6, respectively, all of which exceeded the maximum acceptable limit in the research. Meanwhile, the spatial differentiation (q) of heavy metal health risk was between 0.005523 and 0.204238, which indicated that the high health risk posed by heavy metals should be paid attention to. The health risk rankings (R) of the children's non-cancer risk of Cr and Pb and the cancer risk of Cr in subregions 1, 2, 3, and 4 approached or exceeded 1, and were higher than in subregions 5, 6, and 7, for which R was lower than 0.1. The R values indicated than the high health risk is concentrated in the research region. This research has great significance in measuring the health risk of heavy metals in cultivated soil at different scales, and in forming control strategies with local conditions.