Increased risk of preterm birth due to heat exposure during pregnancy: Exploring the mechanism of fetal physiology.

BACKGROUND: Heat exposure during pregnancy can increase the risk of preterm birth (PTB) through a range of potential mechanisms including pregnancy complications, hormone secretion and infections. However, current research mainly focuses on the effect of heat exposure on pathophysiological pathways of pregnant women, but ignore that maternal heat exposure can also cause physiological changes to the fetus, which will affect the risk of PTB. OBJECTIVE: In this study, we aimed to explore the mediating role of fetal heart rate (FHR) in the relationship between maternal heat exposure and PTB incidence. METHODS: We assigned heat exposure to a multi-center birth cohort in China during 2015-2018, which included all 162,407 singleton live births with several times FHR measurements during the second and third trimesters. We examined the associations between heat exposure, FHR and PTB in the entire pregnancy, each trimester and the last gestational month. The inverse odds ratio-weighted approach applied to the Cox regression was used to identify the mediation effect of heat exposure on PTB and its clinical subtypes via FHR. FINDINGS: Exposure to heat significantly increased the risk of PTB during the third trimester and the entire pregnancy, hazard ratios and 95 % CIs were 1.266 (1.161, 1.379) and 1.328 (1.218, 1.447). Heat exposure during the third trimester and entire pregnancy increased FHR in the third trimester by 0.24 bpm and 0.14 bpm. The proportion of heat exposure mediated by FHR elevation on PTB and its subtype ranged from 3.68 % to 24.06 %, with the significant mediation effect found for both medically indicated PTB and spontaneous PTB. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that heat exposure during pregnancy has an important impact on fetal health, and FHR, as a surrogate marker of fetal physiology, may mediate the increased risk of PTB caused by extreme heat. Monitoring and managing physiological changes in the fetus would constitute a promising avenue to reduce adverse birth outcomes associated with maternal heat exposure.

Global Burden of Tuberculosis in Adolescents and Young Adults: 1990-2019.

OBJECTIVE: Tuberculosis (TB) is a major health threat in adolescents and young adults. However, its burden in this population remains unclear. This study aimed to assess TB burden and changing trends in individuals aged 10 to 24 years from 1990 to 2019. METHODS: All data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. We calculated the percentage of relative changes in incident cases, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The temporal trends of the incidence, mortality, and DALYs were assessed using estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs). RESULTS: At global level, TB incidence (per 100 000 population) decreased from 144.12 in 1990 to 97.56 in 2019, with average 1.28% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.36%-1.19%) of decline per year. Similar decreasing trends occurred across sex, age, sociodemographic index regions, and in most Global Burden of Disease study regions and countries. TB incidence in female adolescents decreased faster than that in male. However, there was an increasing trend in the incidence of extensively drug-resistant TB (EAPC = 11.23, 95% CI: 8.22-14.33) and multidrug-resistant TB without extensive drug resistance (EAPC = 3.28, 95% CI: 1.73-4.86). South Africa had the highest increase in TB incidence (EAPC = 3.51, 95% CI: 3.11-3.92). CONCLUSIONS: Global TB incidence, mortality, and DALYs in adolescents and young adults decreased from 1990 to 2019. However, the incidence of drug-resistant TB increased. TB remains a threat in adolescents and young adults worldwide, especially in low- and middle-income countries.

Behavioral Intention of Receiving Monkeypox Vaccination and Undergoing Monkeypox Testing and the Associated Factors Among Young Men Who Have Sex With Men in China: Large Cross-Sectional Study.

BACKGROUND: The worldwide human monkeypox (mpox) outbreak in 2022 mainly affected men who have sex with men (MSM). In China, young men who have sex with men (YMSM) were at a potential high risk of mpox infection due to their sexual activeness and the eased COVID-19 restrictions at the end of 2022. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to investigate the behavioral intention of receiving mpox vaccination and undergoing mpox testing in 4 different scenarios and explore their associations with background and behavioral theory-related factors among Chinese YMSM. METHODS: An online cross-sectional survey was conducted among YMSM aged 18-29 years from 6 representative provinces of China in September 2022. Participants recruited (recruitment rate=2918/4342, 67.2%) were asked to self-administer an anonymous questionnaire designed based on prior knowledge about mpox and classic health behavior theories. Data on the participants' background, mpox knowledge and cognition, mpox vaccination and testing cognition, and the behavioral intention of receiving mpox vaccination and undergoing mpox testing were collected. Descriptive analysis and univariate and multivariate linear regressions were performed. Geodetector was used to measure the stratified heterogeneity of behavioral intention. RESULTS: A total of 2493 YMSM with a mean age of 24.6 (SD 2.9) years were included. The prevalence of having a behavioral intention of receiving mpox vaccination ranged from 66.2% to 88.4% by scenario, varying in epidemic status and cost. The prevalence of having an mpox testing intention was above 90% in all scenarios regardless of the presence of symptoms and the cost. The positive factors related to vaccination intention included mpox knowledge (ba=0.060, 95% CI 0.016-0.103), perceived susceptibility of mpox (ba=0.091, 95% CI 0.035-0.146), perceived severity of mpox (ba=0.230, 95% CI 0.164-0.296), emotional distress caused by mpox (ba=0.270, 95% CI 0.160-0.380), perceived benefits of mpox vaccination (ba=0.455, 95% CI 0.411-0.498), self-efficacy of mpox vaccination (ba=0.586, 95% CI 0.504-0.668), and having 1 male sex partner (ba=0.452, 95% CI 0.098-0.806), while the negative factor was perceived barriers to vaccination (ba=-0.056, 95% CI -0.090 to -0.022). The positive factors related to testing intention were perceived severity of mpox (ba=0.283, 95% CI 0.241-0.325), perceived benefits of mpox testing (ba=0.679, 95% CI 0.636-0.721), self-efficacy of mpox testing (ba=0.195, 95% CI 0.146-0.245), having 1 male sex partner (ba=0.290, 95% CI 0.070-0.510), and having in-person gatherings with MSM (ba=0.219, 95% CI 0.072-0.366), while the negative factor was emotional distress caused by mpox (ba=-0.069, 95% CI -0.137 to -0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Among Chinese YMSM, the intention of undergoing mpox testing is optimal, while the mpox vaccination intention has room for improvement. A future national response should raise YMSM's mpox knowledge, disseminate updated information about mpox and preventive measures, improve preventive service accessibility and privacy, and provide advice on positively coping with the associated emotional distress.

A Two Phases Multiobjective Trajectory Optimization Scheme for Multi-UGVs in the Sight of the First Aid Scenario.

Timely delivery of first aid supplies is significant to saving lives when an accident happens. Among the promising solutions provided for such scenarios, the application of unmanned vehicles has attracted ever more attention. However, such scenarios are often very complex, while the existing studies have not fully addressed the trajectory optimization problem of multiple unmanned ground vehicles (multi-UGVs) against the scenario. This study focuses on multi-UGVs trajectory optimization in the sight of first aid supply delivery tasks in mass accidents. A two-stage completely decoupling fuzzy multiobjective optimization strategy is designed. On the first stage, with the proposed timescale involved tridimensional tunneled collision-free trajectory (TITTCT) algorithm, collision-free coarse tunnels are build within a tridimensional coordinate system, respectively, for the UGVs as the corresponding configuration space for a further multiobjective optimization. On the second stage, a fuzzy multiobjective transcription method is designed to solve the decoupled optimal control problem (OCP) within the configuration space with the consideration of priority constrains. Following the two-stage design, the computational time is significantly reduced when achieving an optimal solution of the multi-UGV trajectory planning, which is crucial in a first aid task. In addition, other objectives are optimized with the aspiration level reflected. Simulation studies and experiments have been curried out to testify the effectiveness and the improved computational performance of the proposed design.

Perinatal prevalence of birth defects in the Mainland of China, 2000-2021: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Although birth defects are of great concern globally, the latest national prevalence has not yet been quantified in China. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to estimate the perinatal prevalence of birth defects in the Mainland of China between 2000 and 2021. METHODS: We performed a systematic literature search of six databases for relevant articles published between January 1, 2000, and March 1, 2023. We included published studies that reported data on the perinatal prevalence of birth defects in the Mainland of China. The DerSimonian and Laird random-effects models were used to estimate the pooled prevalence and its 95% confidence interval (CI). We also conducted subgroup analyses and univariable meta-regressions to explore differences in prevalence by time period, geographic region, and other characteristics. RESULTS: We included 254 studies reporting the perinatal prevalence of birth defects and 86 studies reporting only the prevalence of specific types of birth defects. Based on 254 studies covering 74,307,037 perinatal births and 985,115 cases with birth defects, the pooled perinatal prevalence of birth defects was 122.54 (95% CI 116.20-128.89) per 10,000 perinatal births in the Mainland of China during 2000-2021. Overall, the perinatal prevalence of birth defects increased from 95.60 (86.51-104.69) per 10,000 in 2000-2004 to 208.94 (175.67-242.22) per 10,000 in 2020-2021. There were also significant disparities among different geographical regions. Congenital heart defects (33.35 per 10,000), clefts of the lip and/or palate (13.52 per 10,000), polydactyly (12.82 per 10,000), neural tube defects (12.82 per 10,000), and inborn errors of metabolism (11.41 per 10,000) were the five most common types of birth defects. The perinatal prevalence among males was significantly higher than that among females (ß = 2.44 × 10-3, P = 0.003); a higher perinatal prevalence of birth defects was observed among perinatal births whose mothers were ≥ 35 years (ß = 4.34 × 10-3, P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Comprehensive and sustained efforts are needed to strengthen surveillance and detection of birth defects, improve prenatal and postnatal healthcare, and promote rehabilitation, especially in underdeveloped areas.

Behavioral intentions of self-isolation and informing close contacts after developing mpox-related symptoms among young men who have sex with men in China.

The 2022 multi-country mpox outbreak raised public concern globally. Self-isolation and informing close contacts after developing mpox-related symptoms are critical measures in controlling the outbreak. This study investigated behavioral intentions of self-isolation and informing close contacts after developing mpox-related symptoms and associated factors among young men who have sex with men (YMSM) aged 18-29 years in China. The cross-sectional study was conducted among 2493 YMSM in six provincial regions in China from September 10th to 30th, 2022. Descriptive and logistic analyses were applied, using the intentions of self-isolation and informing close contacts after developing mpox-related symptoms as binary outcomes. The mean age of the participants was 24.6 (SD = 2.9) years. The prevalence of having intentions of self-isolation and informing close contacts after developing mpox-related symptoms was 88.6% (95% CI: 87.3%-89.9%) and 84.9% (95% CI: 83.5%-86.3%). Participants who were employed (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 1.474, 95% CI: 1.035-2.097; AOR = 1.371, 95% CI:1.002, 1.876), had higher mpox knowledge scores (AOR = 1.474, 95% CI: 1.035-2.097; AOR = 1.371, 95% CI: 1.002-1.876), and had higher perceived threats of mpox (AOR = 1.079, 95% CI: 1.030-1.130; AOR = 1.045, 95% CI: 1.002-1.090) were more likely to intend to self-isolate and inform close contacts. Participants who had MSM in-person gatherings in the past 6 months were more likely to intend to self-isolate (AOR = 1.392, 95% CI: 1.066-1.208). Participants with higher depression scores (AOR = 0.968, 95% CI: 0.948-0.989) and self-stigma (AOR = 0.975, 95% CI: 0.954-0.997) were less likely to intend to self-isolate and inform close contacts, respectively. Self-isolation and informing close contacts when developing disease-related symptoms are acceptable measures in response to mpox in China. Strengthening targeted risk communication and self-efficacy, raising disease knowledge, providing mental support, and reducing stigma toward the affected community are warranted.

Spatiotemporal trends of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in China under climate variation.

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a zoonotic disease caused by the rodent-transmitted orthohantaviruses (HVs), with China possessing the most cases globally. The virus hosts in China are Apodemus agrarius and Rattus norvegicus, and the disease spread is strongly influenced by global climate dynamics. To assess and predict the spatiotemporal trends of HFRS from 2005 to 2098, we collected historical HFRS data in mainland China (2005-2020), historical and projected climate and population data (2005-2098), and spatial variables including biotic, environmental, topographical, and socioeconomic. Spatiotemporal predictions and mapping were conducted under 27 scenarios incorporating multiple integrated representative concentration pathway models and population scenarios. We identify the type of magistral HVs host species as the best spatial division, including four region categories. Seven extreme climate indices associated with temperature and precipitation have been pinpointed as key factors affecting the trends of HFRS. Our predictions indicate that annual HFRS cases will increase significantly in 62 of 356 cities in mainland China. Rattus regions are predicted to be the most active, surpassing Apodemus and Mixed regions. Eighty cities are identified as at severe risk level for HFRS, each with over 50 reported cases annually, including 22 new cities primarily located in East China and Rattus regions after 2020, while 6 others develop new risk. Our results suggest that the risk of HFRS will remain high through the end of this century, with Rattus norvegicus being the most active host, and that extreme climate indices are significant risk factors. Our findings can inform evidence-based policymaking regarding future risk of HFRS.

China's public health initiatives for climate change adaptation.

China's health gains over the past decades face potential reversals if climate change adaptation is not prioritized. China's temperature rise surpasses the global average due to urban heat islands and ecological changes, and demands urgent actions to safeguard public health. Effective adaptation need to consider China's urbanization trends, underlying non-communicable diseases, an aging population, and future pandemic threats. Climate change adaptation initiatives and strategies include urban green space, healthy indoor environments, spatial planning for cities, advance location-specific early warning systems for extreme weather events, and a holistic approach for linking carbon neutrality to health co-benefits. Innovation and technology uptake is a crucial opportunity. China's successful climate adaptation can foster international collaboration regionally and beyond.

Projecting future labor losses due to heat stress in China under climate change scenarios.

Climate change is expected to increase occupational heat stress, which will lead to diminished work performance and labor losses worldwide. However, sub-regional analyses remain insufficient, especially for countries with a heterogeneous spatial distribution of working populations, industries and climates. Here, we projected heat-induced labor losses in China, by considering local climate simulations, working population characteristics and developing an exposure-response function suitable for Chinese workers. We showed that the annual heat-induced work hours lost (WHL), compared to the baseline of 21.3 billion hours, will increase by 121.1% (111.2%-131.1%), 10.8% (8.3%-15.3%), and -17.8% (-15.3%--20.3%) by the end of the century under RCP(Representative Concentration Pathways)8.5, RCP4.5, and RCP2.6, respectively. We observed an approximately linear upward trend of WHL under RCP8.5, despite the decrease in future working population. Notably, WHL will be most prominent in the southern, eastern and central regions, with Guangdong and Henan accounting for a quarter of national total losses; this is largely due to their higher temperature exposure, larger population size, and higher shares of vulnerable population in total employment. In addition, limiting global warming to 1.5 °C would yield substantial gains. Compared to RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, all provinces can avoid an average of 11.8%, 33.7%, and 53.9% of annual WHL if the 1.5 °C target is achieved, which is equivalent to avoiding 0.1%, 0.6%, and 1.4% of annual GDP losses in China, respectively. This study revealed climate change will exacerbate future labor losses, and adverse impacts can be minimized by adopting stringent mitigation policies coupled with effective adaptation measures. Policymakers in each province should tailor occupation health protection measures to their circumstances.

Temporal Trends in Cardiovascular Health Status Among Chinese School-Aged Children From 1989 to 2018: Multiwave Cross-Sectional Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Despite the release of updated metrics for Life's Essential 8 (LE8), key indicators for assessing cardiovascular health (CVH) status, there is currently no report on their distribution among Chinese children. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to assess the nationwide distribution of CVH in Chinese school-aged children using LE8 scores and analyze temporal changes in these scores over time. METHODS: Participants aged 7 to 19 years from 11 waves (between 1989 and 2018) of the China Health and Nutrition Survey were included in this study. LE8 components were grouped into 2 domains of health behaviors (diet, physical activity, nicotine exposure, sleep) and health factors (BMI, blood lipids, blood glucose, blood pressure). Scores of overall CVH and each LE8 metric were calculated individually. Temporal changes were assessed with joint point regression models by rural and urban living residence. The causal relationships between health behaviors and health factors that changed the most over time were built with cross-lagged panel models. RESULTS: A total of 21,921 participants, 52.6% (n=11,537) of whom were male, who had data for at least 4 CVH components were included in the analysis. The mean age was 13 (SD 3.6) years. The overall CVH score remained stable in most regions, with the lowest found in Shandong from East China, which had a mean between 67 (SD 10.9) and 67.2 (SD 12.4). In contrast, the highest score was found in Guizhou from Southwest China, with a mean between 71.4 (SD 10.8) and 74.3 (SD 10.3). In rural areas, the diet score decreased significantly from 1997 onward with a speed of 0.18 (95% CI: 0.15-0.21; P<.001) per year, and the BMI score decreased significantly from 2005 onward with a speed of 0.56 (95% CI 0.44-0.68; P<.001) per year. In urban areas, the diet score decreased from 1994 onward with a speed of 0.03 (95% CI: 0.001-0.07; P=.04) per year, and the BMI score decreased from 2002 onward with a speed of 0.63 (95% CI 0.47-0.79; P<.001) per year. The sleep score dropped constantly in both urban and rural areas, with a speed of 0.69 (95% CI 0.58-0.80; P<.001) and 0.69 (95% CI: 0.52-0.86; P<.001) per year, respectively. A decline in the diet score led to a decline in the BMI score with a coefficient of 0.190 (95% CI 0.030-0.351; P=.02), while a decline in the BMI score led to a decline in sleep health with a coefficient of 0.089 (95% CI 0.010-0.168; P=.03). CONCLUSIONS: Chinese school-aged children and adolescents were generally of moderate CVH status, but mutual influences existed between CVH metrics. Dietary interventions should be prioritized for promoting overall CVH in the future.

Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on life expectancy at birth at the global, regional, and national levels: A joinpoint time-series analysis.

Background: Current estimates indicate that coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused 14.9 million excess deaths in 2020 and 2021. Thus, estimating the change in life expectancy at birth due to the COVID-19 pandemic could aid in understanding its impact and implementing public health initiatives. Methods: We collected data on the life expectancy at birth of the combined population between 1990 and 2021 at the global, regional, and national levels from the 2022 Revision of World Population Prospects. In this time series study, we estimated the trend segments, the change of trend years (joinpoints), the annual percentage change (APC) in life expectancy at birth within each trend segment, and the average APC (AAPC) in life expectancy at birth during the full study period using joinpoint regression analysis. Results: The global life expectancy at birth decreased from 72.8 years in 2019 to 71.0 years in 2021, with an annual decrease of 1.2% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.0, 1.5) during the 2019-2021 period, despite an overall increasing trend during the entire period from 1990 to 2021 (AAPC = 0.3%; 95% CI = 0.3, 0.4). We observed a significantly increasing trend in life expectancy at birth in all regions and nearly 87.7% (207/236) of the world's countries and areas during the entire period (1990-2021). All continental regions except Africa and Oceania experienced a significant decreasing trend in life expectancy at birth in 2019-2021, with an APC of -1.2% (95% CI = -1.5, -0.9) for Asia, -2.1% (95% CI = -2.7, -1.6) for Latin America and the Caribbean, -1.1% (95% CI = -1.6, -0.6) for Northern America, and -1.4% (95% CI = -1.9, -0.9) for Europe. Among all countries and areas, 107 countries and areas (45.3%) experienced a significant decreasing trend in life expectancy at birth in the most recent time segment, with 77 countries and areas (32.6%) experiencing a significant decreasing trend during the 2019-2021 period. Conclusions: The world experienced a significant decreasing trend in life expectancy at birth in 2019-2021, with a decrease of 1.8 years; all continental regions except Africa and Oceania and 77 countries and areas experienced a significant decreasing trend in life expectancy at birth. These decreasing trends at global, regional, and national levels during the 2019-2021 period reflected the COVID-19 pandemic's direct and indirect adverse effects on life expectancy at birth.

Exploration of the preterm birth risk-related heat event thresholds for pregnant women: a population-based cohort study in China.

Background: Heat events increase the risk of preterm birth (PTB), and identifying the risk-related event thresholds contributes to developing early warning system for pregnant women and guiding their public health response. However, the event thresholds that cause the risk remain unclear. We aimed to investigate the effects of heat events defined with different intensities and durations on PTB throughout pregnancy, and to determine thresholds for the high-risk heat events. Methods: Using a population-based birth cohort data, we included 210,798 singleton live births in eight provinces in China during 2014-2018. Daily meteorological variables and inverse distance weighted methods were used to estimate exposures at a resolution of 1 km × 1 km. A series of cut off temperature intensities (50th-97.5th percentiles, or 18 °C-35 °C) and durations (at least 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5 consecutive days) were used to define the heat events. Cox regression models were used to estimate the effects of heat events on PTB in various gestational weeks during the entire pregnancy, and event thresholds were determined by calculating population attributable fractions. Findings: The hazard ratios of heat event exposure on PTB ranged from 1.07 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.13) to 1.43 (1.15, 1.77). Adverse effects of heat event exposure were prominently detected in gestational week 1-4, week 21-32 and the four weeks before delivery. The heat event thresholds were determined to be daily maximum temperature at the 90th percentile of the distribution or 30 °C lasting for at least one day. If pregnant women were able to avoid the heat exposures from the early warning systems triggered by these thresholds, approximately 15% or 17% of the number of total PTB cases could have been avoided. Interpretation: Exposure to heat event can increase the risk of PTB when thermal event exceeds a specific intensity and duration threshold, particularly in the first four gestational weeks, and between week 21 and the last four weeks. This study provides compelling evidence for the development of heat-health early warning systems for pregnant women that could substantially mitigate the risk of PTB. Funding: National Key R&D Program of China (No. 2018YFA0606200), National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 42175183), Sanming Project of Medicine in Shenzhen (No. SZSM202111001).

Trends in the Baidu Index in Search Activity Related to Mpox at Geographical and Economic Levels and Associated Factors in China: National Longitudinal Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Research assessing trends in online search activity related to mpox in China is scarce. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to provide evidence for an overview of online information searching during an infectious disease outbreak by analyzing trends in online search activity related to mpox at geographical and economic levels in China and explore influencing factors. METHODS: We used the Baidu index to present online search activity related to mpox from May 19 to September 19, 2022. Segmented interrupted time-series analysis was used to estimate trends in online search activity. Factors influencing these trends were analyzed using a general linear regression (GLM) model. We calculated the concentration index to measure economic-related inequality in online search activity and related trends. RESULTS: Online search activity was highest on the day the first imported case of mpox appeared in Chongqing compared to 3 other cutoff time points. After the day of the first imported mpox case in Taiwan, the declaration of a public health emergency of international concern, the first imported mpox case in Hong Kong, and the first imported mpox case in Chongqing, national online search activity increased by 0.642%, 1.035%, 1.199%, and 2.023%, respectively. The eastern regions had higher increases than the central and western regions. Across 31 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions, the top 3 areas with higher increases were Beijing, Shanghai, and Tianjin at 3 time points, with the exception of the day of the first imported mpox case in Chongqing (Chongqing replaced Tianjin on that day). When AIDS incidence increased by 1 per 100,000 people, there was an increase after the day of the first imported mpox case in Chongqing of 36.22% (95% CI 3.29%-69.15%; P=.04) after controlling for other covariates. Online search activity (concentration index=0.18; P<.001) was more concentrated among populations with a higher economic status. Unlike the central area, the eastern (concentration index=0.234; P<.001) and western areas (concentration index=0.047; P=.04) had significant economic-related disparities (P for difference <.001) in online search activity. The overall concentration index of changes in online search activity became lower over time. CONCLUSIONS: Regions with a higher economic level showed more interest in mpox, especially Beijing and Shanghai. After the day of the first imported mpox case in Chongqing, changes in online search activity were affected by AIDS incidence rate. Economic-related disparities in changes in online search activity became lower over time. It would be desirable to construct a reliable information source in regions with a higher economic level and higher AIDS incidence rate and promote public knowledge in regions with a lower economic level in China, especially after important public events.

Association of Catastrophic Health Expenditure With the Risk of Depression in Chinese Adults: Population-Based Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Depression is one of the most common mental illnesses, and it may have a lasting effect on one's whole life. As a form of financial hardship, catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) may be associated with depression. However, current evidence about the relationship between CHE and the risk of depression is insufficient. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to explore the relationship between CHE and the risk of depression among Chinese adults. METHODS: In this study, we used 3 waves of the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) from 2012, 2016, and 2018. The CFPS are a nationally representative study covering 25 of 31 provinces in Chinese mainland and representing nearly 94.5% of the total population. We selected eligible household heads as participants, divided them into 2 groups by CHE events at baseline (exposed group: with CHE; unexposed group: without CHE), and followed them up. Households with CHE were defined as having out-of-pocket medical expenditures exceeding 40% of the total household nonfood expenditure, and people with depression were identified by the 8-item Centre for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale (CES-D). We first described the baseline characteristics and used logistical regression to estimate their effects on CHE events. Then, we used Cox proportional hazard models to estimate adjusted hazard ratios and 95% CIs of depression among participants with CHE compared with those without CHE. Finally, we analyzed the subgroup difference in the association between CHE and depression. RESULTS: Of a total of 13,315 households, 9629 were eligible for analysis. Among them, 6824 (70.9%) were men. The mean age was 50.15 (SD 12.84) years. Only 987 (10.3%) participants had no medical insurance. The prevalence of CHE at baseline was 12.9% (1393/9629). Participants with a higher family economic level (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.15, 95% CI 1.02-1.31) and with the highest socioeconomic development level (aOR 1.18, 95% CI 1.04-1.34) had a higher prevalence of CHE than reference groups. During a median of 71 (IQR 69-72) person-months of follow-up, the depression incidence of participants with CHE (1.41 per 1000 person-months) was higher than those without CHE (0.73 per 1000 person-months). Multivariable models revealed that the adjusted hazard ratio for the incidence of depression in participants with CHE was 1.33 (95% CI 1.08-1.64), and this association appeared to be greater in participants without outpatient services (for interaction, P=.048). CONCLUSIONS: CHE was significantly associated with increased risk of depression among Chinese adults. Concentrated work should be done to monitor CHE, and more efforts to ensure financial protection need to be made to prevent depression, especially for people with high health care needs.

Mpox risk perception and associated factors among Chinese young men who have sex with men: Results from a large cross-sectional survey.

The mpox outbreak since 2022 had attacked the community of men who have sex with men (MSM) heavily. This large cross-sectional study investigated the levels and associated factors of mpox risk perception among young MSM (YMSM) aged 18-29 years in six provincial regions of China in September 2022. The participants were recruited via facility-based sampling. Mpox risk perception was measured by perceived susceptibility and perceived severity of mpox. Geodetector was used to measure stratified heterogeneity of mpox risk perception. Univariate and multivariable linear regressions were used to examine the factors associated with mpox risk perception. A total of 2493 participants were included with a mean age of 24.6 years. The proportion of perceiving a susceptibility of mpox under different scenarios ranged 3.7%-17.0% and that of perceiving a severity of mpox ranged 81.6%-83.2%. Stratified heterogeneity of perceived susceptibility, perceived severity, and overall perceived risk of mpox were observed in several characteristics such as study sites, monthly income, risk behaviors, and psychosocial factors. Multivariable regression showed the level of mpox risk perception was positively associated with having in-person gathering activities (ba = 0.457, 95% CI: 0.208, 0.705), history of HIV infection (ba = 0.431, 95% CI: 0.028, 0.834), depressive symptoms (ba = 0.069, 95% CI: 0.049, 0.090), and self-stigma to MSM identity (ba = 0.047, 95% CI: 0.024, 0.071). The Chinese YMSM showed a high level of perceived severity of mpox but a low level of perceived susceptibility. It is warranted to strengthen targeted risk communication of mpox, develop comprehensive and unstigmatized health messages, and provide mental health support for YMSM.

The impact of multiple non-pharmaceutical interventions for China-bound travel on domestic COVID-19 outbreaks.

Objectives: Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) implemented on China-bound travel have successfully mitigated cross-regional transmission of COVID-19 but made the country face ripple effects. Thus, adjusting these interventions to reduce interruptions to individuals' daily life while minimizing transmission risk was urgent. Methods: An improved Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model was built to evaluate the Delta variant's epidemiological characteristics and the impact of NPIs. To explore the risk associated with inbound travelers and the occurrence of domestic traceable outbreaks, we developed an association parameter that combined inbound traveler counts with a time-varying initial value. In addition, multiple time-varying functions were used to model changes in the implementation of NPIs. Related parameters of functions were run by the MCSS method with 1,000 iterations to derive the probability distribution. Initial values, estimated parameters, and corresponding 95% CI were obtained. Reported existing symptomatic, suspected, and asymptomatic case counts were used as the training datasets. Reported cumulative recovered individual data were used to verify the reliability of relevant parameters. Lastly, we used the value of the ratio (Bias2/Variance) to verify the stability of the mathematical model, and the effects of the NPIs on the infected cases to analyze the sensitivity of input parameters. Results: The quantitative findings indicated that this improved model was highly compatible with publicly reported data collected from July 21 to August 30, 2021. The number of inbound travelers was associated with the occurrence of domestic outbreaks. A proportional relationship between the Delta variant incubation period and PCR test validity period was found. The model also predicted that restoration of pre-pandemic travel schedules while adhering to NPIs requirements would cause shortages in health resources. The maximum demand for hospital beds would reach 25,000/day, the volume of PCR tests would be 8,000/day, and the number of isolation rooms would reach 800,000/day within 30 days. Conclusion: With the pandemic approaching the end, reexamining it carefully helps better address future outbreaks. This predictive model has provided scientific evidence for NPIs' effectiveness and quantifiable evidence of health resource allocation. It could guide the design of future epidemic prevention and control policies, and provide strategic recommendations on scarce health resource allocation.

Climate-driven marmot-plague dynamics in Mongolia and China.

The incidence of plague has rebounded in the Americas, Asia, and Africa alongside rapid globalization and climate change. Previous studies have shown local climate to have significant nonlinear effects on plague dynamics among rodent communities. We analyzed an 18-year database of plague, spanning 1998 to 2015, in the foci of Mongolia and China to trace the associations between marmot plague and climate factors. Our results suggested a density-dependent effect of precipitation and a geographic location-dependent effect of temperature on marmot plague. That is, a significantly positive relationship was evident between risk of plague and precipitation only when the marmot density exceeded a certain threshold. The geographical heterogeneity of the temperature effect and the contrasting slopes of influence for the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) and other regions in the study (nQTP) were primarily related to diversity of climate and landscape types.

Exploring cognitive trajectories and their association with physical performance: evidence from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study.

OBJECTIVES: The long-term trends of cognitive function and its associations with physical performance remain unclear, particularly in Asian populations. The study objectives were to determine cognitive trajectories in middle-aged and elderly Chinese individuals, as well as to examine differences in physical performance across cognitive trajectory groups. METHODS: Data were extracted from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study. A total of 5,701 participants (47.7% male) with a mean age of 57.8 (standard deviation, 8.4) years at enrollment were included. A group-based trajectory model was used to identify cognitive trajectory groups for each sex. Grip strength, repeated chair stand, and standing balance tests were used to evaluate physical performance. An ordered logistic regression model was employed to analyze differences in physical performance across cognitive trajectory groups. RESULTS: Three cognitive trajectory groups were identified for each sex: low, middle, and high. For both sexes, higher cognitive trajectory groups exhibited smaller declines with age. In the fully adjusted model, relative to the low trajectory group, the odds ratios (ORs) of better physical performance in the middle cognitive group were 1.37 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.17 to 1.59; p<0.001) during follow-up and 1.40 (95% CI, 1.20 to 1.64; p<0.001) at the endpoint. The ORs in the high trajectory group were 1.94 (95% CI, 1.61 to 2.32; p<0.001) during follow-up and 2.04 (95% CI, 1.69 to 2.45; p<0.001) at the endpoint. CONCLUSIONS: Cognitive function was better preserved in male participants and individuals with higher baseline cognitive function. A higher cognitive trajectory was associated with better physical performance over time.