How to effectively achieve air pollutant reduction and carbon mitigation in China's industrial sector? A study based on decomposition analysis and scenario simulation.

Reducing air pollutant and carbon emissions in the industrial sector is crucial for the ecological civilization construction in China. In this study, we first employ the generalized Divisia index method to analyze the driving factors of industrial CO2 and SO2 emissions, incorporating fixed asset investment and R&D input. The key sub-sectors that exert significant impact on emissions of the whole industrial sector are identified. And then, scenario analysis and Monte Carlo simulation are utilized to predict future trends and potential for reducing CO2 and SO2 emissions. Furthermore, the carbon peaking time of the industrial sub-sectors is investigated. The results indicate that fixed asset investment and R&D input both have played positive roles in CO2 and SO2 emissions. Emission reduction is mainly driven by investment emission intensity, output emission intensity, and R&D emission intensity. Sub-sectors S09, S10, S11, S12, and S18 present substantial potential for reducing air pollutant and carbon emissions. Although SO2 emissions from the industrial sector are projected to decrease in the future, the peak of CO2 emissions have not been reached. The carbon peak time for the whole industrial sector is predicted in 2025, with the peak of 7892.33 Mt. The five key sub-sectors are anticipated to reach the respective carbon emission peaks at different times. Therefore, to effectively implement industrial air pollutant and carbon reduction, the role of fixed asset investment and R&D input should be fully utilized, and high-energy consumption and high-emission sub-sectors should be prioritized for action.

Synergistic effect of air pollutant abatement on CO2 reduction in the industrial sector: evidence from China.

The synergistic abatement of air pollutants and CO2 emission in the industrial sector is crucial for China to achieve its energy conservation and emission reduction goals. However, none of the literature has conducted a systematic and in-depth research on assessing the synergistic abatement effect and identification of its driving factors for the industrial sector in China. Therefore, based on 36 industrial sub-sectors in China, we assess the synergistic effect of air pollutants on CO2 and examine the expansion mechanism of the synergistic effect. Furthermore, we explore how three driving factors, namely environmental regulation, technological progress and energy structure, affect the synergistic effect of abatement. The results indicate that, for the whole industrial sector, the synergistic effect of air pollutant abatement on CO2 reduction is significant, positively moderated by the enhancement of R&D investment, fixed asset investment and market openness. Strengthening environmental regulation, improving technological progress and optimizing energy structure could effectively promote the synergistic abatement effect. For three industrial subdivisions, the synergistic effect exists in three industrial categories, increasing R&D investment and fixed asset investment could positively moderate the synergistic effect. The three driving factors, environmental regulation, technological progress, and energy structure, could boost synergistic abatement for capital-intensive industries, but hardly for resource- and labor-intensive industries. In technology-intensive industries, only environmental regulation and technological progress could promote synergistic abatement. The findings could offer scientific support for the policymaking of the synergistic control of air pollutants emission and CO2 emission in China's industrial sector.