Challenges of COVID-19 Case Forecasting in the US, 2020-2021.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID-19 forecasting was coordinated by a large group of universities, companies, and government entities led by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org). We evaluated approximately 9.7 million forecasts of weekly state-level COVID-19 cases for predictions 1-4 weeks into the future submitted by 24 teams from August 2020 to December 2021. We assessed coverage of central prediction intervals and weighted interval scores (WIS), adjusting for missing forecasts relative to a baseline forecast, and used a Gaussian generalized estimating equation (GEE) model to evaluate differences in skill across epidemic phases that were defined by the effective reproduction number. Overall, we found high variation in skill across individual models, with ensemble-based forecasts outperforming other approaches. Forecast skill relative to the baseline was generally higher for larger jurisdictions (e.g., states compared to counties). Over time, forecasts generally performed worst in periods of rapid changes in reported cases (either in increasing or decreasing epidemic phases) with 95% prediction interval coverage dropping below 50% during the growth phases of the winter 2020, Delta, and Omicron waves. Ideally, case forecasts could serve as a leading indicator of changes in transmission dynamics. However, while most COVID-19 case forecasts outperformed a naïve baseline model, even the most accurate case forecasts were unreliable in key phases. Further research could improve forecasts of leading indicators, like COVID-19 cases, by leveraging additional real-time data, addressing performance across phases, improving the characterization of forecast confidence, and ensuring that forecasts were coherent across spatial scales. In the meantime, it is critical for forecast users to appreciate current limitations and use a broad set of indicators to inform pandemic-related decision making.

Cost of start-up activities to implement a community-level opioid overdose reduction intervention in the HEALing Communities Study.

BACKGROUND: Communities That HEAL (CTH) is a novel, data-driven community-engaged intervention designed to reduce opioid overdose deaths by increasing community engagement, adoption of an integrated set of evidence-based practices, and delivering a communications campaign across healthcare, behavioral-health, criminal-legal, and other community-based settings. The implementation of such a complex initiative requires up-front investments of time and other expenditures (i.e., start-up costs). Despite the importance of these start-up costs in investment decisions to stakeholders, they are typically excluded from cost-effectiveness analyses. The objective of this study is to report a detailed analysis of CTH start-up costs pre-intervention implementation and to describe the relevance of these data for stakeholders to determine implementation feasibility. METHODS: This study is guided by the community perspective, reflecting the investments that a real-world community would need to incur to implement the CTH intervention. We adopted an activity-based costing approach, in which resources related to hiring, training, purchasing, and community dashboard creation were identified through macro- and micro-costing techniques from 34 communities with high rates of fatal opioid overdoses, across four states-Kentucky, Massachusetts, New York, and Ohio. Resources were identified and assigned a unit cost using administrative and semi-structured-interview data. All cost estimates were reported in 2019 dollars. RESULTS: State-level average and median start-up cost (representing 8-10 communities per state) were $268,657 and $175,683, respectively. Hiring and training represented 40%, equipment and infrastructure costs represented 24%, and dashboard creation represented 36% of the total average start-up cost. Comparatively, hiring and training represented 49%, purchasing costs represented 18%, and dashboard creation represented 34% of the total median start-up cost. CONCLUSION: We identified three distinct CTH hiring models that affected start-up costs: hospital-academic (Massachusetts), university-academic (Kentucky and Ohio), and community-leveraged (New York). Hiring, training, and purchasing start-up costs were lowest in New York due to existing local infrastructure. Community-based implementation similar to the New York model may have lower start-up costs due to leveraging of existing infrastructure, relationships, and support from local health departments.

The association between naloxone claims and proportion of independent vs. chain pharmacies: A longitudinal analysis of naloxone claims in the US.

BACKGROUND: Expanding access to naloxone through pharmacies is an important policy goal. Our objective was to characterize national county-level naloxone dispensing of chain versus independent pharmacies. METHODS: The primary exposure in our longitudinal analysis was the proportion of chain pharmacies in a county, identified through the US Department of Homeland Security 2010 Infrastructure Foundation-Level Data. We defined counties as having "higher proportion" of chain pharmacies if at least 50% of pharmacies were large national chains. The primary outcome was quarter-year (2016Q1-2019Q2) rate of pharmacy naloxone claims per 100,000 persons from Symphony Health at the county-level. We compared the naloxone dispensing rate between county types using two-sample t-tests. We estimated the association between county-level chain pharmacy proportion and rate of naloxone claims using a linear model with year-quarter fixed effects. RESULTS: Nearly one third of counties (n=946) were higher proportion. Higher proportion counties had a significantly higher rate of naloxone claims across the study period, in 4 of 6 urban-rural classifications, and in counties with and without naloxone access laws. The linear model confirmed that higher proportion counties had a significantly higher rate of naloxone claims, adjusting for urban/rural designation, income, population characteristics, opioid mortality rate, co-prescribing laws and naloxone access laws. CONCLUSION: In this national study, we found an association between naloxone dispensing rates and the county-level proportion of chain (versus independent) pharmacies. Incentivizing naloxone dispensing through educational, regulatory, or legal efforts may improve naloxone availability and dispensing rates - particularly in counties with proportionately high numbers of independent pharmacies.

Abatacept Pharmacokinetics and Exposure Response in Patients Hospitalized With COVID-19: A Secondary Analysis of the ACTIV-1 IM Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: The pharmacokinetics of abatacept and the association between abatacept exposure and outcomes in patients with severe COVID-19 are unknown. Objective: To characterize abatacept pharmacokinetics, relate drug exposure with clinical outcomes, and evaluate the need for dosage adjustments. Design, Setting, and Participants: This study is a secondary analysis of data from the ACTIV-1 (Accelerating COVID-19 Therapeutic Interventions and Vaccines) Immune Modulator (IM) randomized clinical trial conducted between October 16, 2020, and December 31, 2021. The trial included hospitalized adults who received abatacept in addition to standard of care for treatment of COVID-19 pneumonia. Data analysis was performed between September 2022 and February 2024. Exposure: Single intravenous infusion of abatacept (10 mg/kg with a maximum dose of 1000 mg). Main Outcomes and Measures: Mortality at day 28 was the primary outcome of interest, and time to recovery at day 28 was the secondary outcome. Drug exposure was assessed using the projected area under the serum concentration time curve over 28 days (AUC0-28). Logistic regression modeling was used to analyze the association between drug exposure and 28-day mortality, adjusted for age, sex, and disease severity. The association between time to recovery and abatacept exposure was examined using Fine-Gray modeling with death as a competing risk, and was adjusted for age, sex, and disease severity. Results: Of the 509 patients who received abatacept, 395 patients with 848 serum samples were included in the population pharmacokinetic analysis. Their median age was 55 (range, 19-89) years and most (250 [63.3%]) were men. Abatacept clearance increased with body weight and more severe disease activity at baseline. Drug exposure was higher in patients who survived vs those who died, with a median AUC0-28 of 21 428 (range, 8462-43 378) mg × h/L vs 18 262 (range, 9628-27 507) mg × h/L (P < .001). Controlling for age, sex, and disease severity, an increase of 5000 units in AUC0-28 was associated with lower odds of mortality at day 28 (OR, 0.52 [95% CI, 0.35-0.79]; P = .002). For an AUC0-28 of 19 400 mg × h/L or less, there was a higher probability of recovery at day 28 (hazard ratio, 2.63 [95% CI, 1.70-4.08] for every 5000-unit increase; P < .001). Controlling for age, sex, and disease severity, every 5000-unit increase in AUC0-28 was also associated with lower odds of a composite safety event at 28 days (OR, 0.46 [95% CI, 0.33-0.63]; P < .001). Using the dosing regimen studied in the ACTIV-1 IM trial, 121 of the 395 patients (30.6%) would not achieve an abatacept exposure of at least 19 400 mg × h/L, particularly at the extremes of body weight. Using a modified, higher-dose regimen, only 12 patients (3.0%) would not achieve the hypothesized target abatacept exposure. Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, patients who were hospitalized with severe COVID-19 and achieved higher projected abatacept exposure had reduced mortality and a higher probability of recovery with fewer safety events. However, abatacept clearance was high in this population, and the current abatacept dosing (10 mg/kg intravenously with a maximum of 1000 mg) may not achieve optimal exposure in all patients. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04593940.

Cost-Effectiveness of Strategies for Treatment Timing for Perinatally Acquired Hepatitis C Virus.

Importance: Prevalence of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection among pregnant people is increasing in the US. HCV is transmitted vertically in 7% to 8% of births. Direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy was recently approved for children with HCV who are 3 years or older. The clinical and economic impacts of early DAA therapy for young children with HCV, compared with treating at older ages, are unknown. Objective: To develop a state-transition model to project clinical and economic outcomes for children with perinatally acquired HCV to investigate the cost-effectiveness of treating at various ages. Design, Setting, and Participants: The study team modeled the natural history of perinatally acquired HCV to simulate disease progression and costs of a simulated a cohort of 1000 US children with HCV from 3 years old through death. Added data were analyzed January 5, 2021, through July 1, 2022. Interventions: The study compared strategies offering 8 weeks of DAA therapy at 3, 6, 12, or 18 years old, as well as a comparator of never treating HCV. Main Outcomes and Measures: Outcomes of interest include life expectancy from 3 years and average lifetime per-person health care costs. Other clinical outcomes include cases of cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Results: The study team projected that treating HCV at 3 years old was associated with lower mean lifetime per-person health care costs ($148 162) than deferring treatment until 6 years old ($164 292), 12 years old ($171 909), or 18 years old ($195 374). Projected life expectancy was longest when treating at 3 years old (78.36 life years [LYs]) and decreased with treatment deferral until 6 years old (76.10 LYs), 12 years old (75.99 LYs), and 18 years old (75.46 LYs). In a cohort of 1000 children with perinatally acquired HCV, treating at 3 years old prevented 89 projected cases of cirrhosis, 27 cases of HCC, and 74 liver-related deaths compared with deferring treatment until 6 years old. In sensitivity analyses, increasing loss to follow-up led to even greater clinical benefits and cost savings with earlier treatment. Conclusions and Relevance: These study results showed that DAA therapy for 3-year-old children was projected to reduce health care costs and increase survival compared with deferral until age 6 years or older. Measures to increase DAA access for young children will be important to realizing these benefits.

Test characteristics for combining non-invasive liver fibrosis staging modalities in individuals with Hepatitis C virus.

Non-invasive methods have largely replaced biopsy to identify advanced fibrosis in hepatitis C virus (HCV). Guidelines vary regarding testing strategy to balance accuracy, costs and loss to follow-up. Although individual test characteristics are well-described, data comparing the accuracy of using two tests together are limited. We calculated combined test characteristics to determine the utility of combined strategies. This study synthesizes empirical data from fibrosis staging trials and the literature to estimate test characteristics for Fibrosis-4 (FIB4), APRI or a commercial serum panel (FibroSure®), followed by transient elastography (TE) or FibroSure®. We simulated two testing strategies: (1) second test only for those with intermediate first test results (staged approach), and (2) second test for all. We summarized empiric data with multinomial distributions and used this to estimate test characteristics of each strategy on a simulated population of 10,000 individuals with 4.2% cirrhosis prevalence. Negative predictive value (NPV) for cirrhosis from a single test ranged from 98.2% (95% CB 97.6-98.8%) for FIB-4 to 99.4% (95% CB 99.0-99.8%) for TE. Using a staged approach with TE second, sensitivity for cirrhosis rose to 93.3-96.9%, NPV to 99.7-99.8%, while PPV dropped to <32%. Using TE as a second test for all minimally changed estimated test characteristics compared with the staged approach. Combining two non-invasive fibrosis tests barely improves NPV and decreases or does not change PPV compared with a single test, challenging the utility of serial testing modalities. These calculated combined test characteristics can inform best methods to identify advanced fibrosis in various populations.

Establishing a Protocol for Determining the Costs of an Integrated Set of Evidence-based Practices Aimed at Reducing Opioid Overdose Deaths.

OBJECTIVES: In the midst of the opioid overdose crisis, local jurisdictions face a choice of public health interventions. A significant barrier when considering evidence-based practices (EBPs) is the lack of information regarding their implementation cost. This protocol paper provides the methodological foundation for the economic cost evaluations of community-wide strategies on the scale of a national study. It can serve as a resource for other communities, local policymakers, and stakeholders as they consider implementing possible public health strategies in their unique settings. METHODS: We present a protocol that details (1) the process of identifying, reviewing, and analyzing individual strategies for study-funded and non-study-funded costs; (2) prospective costing tool designation, and; (3) data collection. To do this, we set up working groups with community stakeholders, reviewed financial invoices, and surveyed individuals with detailed knowledge of their community implementation. DISCUSSION: There were 3 main challenges/limitations. The first was the lack of a standard structure for documenting nonfunded costs associated with each strategy. The second was the need for timely implementation of cost data. The third was generalizability because our study designed its strategies for selected communities due to their high opioid overdose mortality rates. Future steps include more tailored questions to ask during the categorization/filter process and establishing realistic expectations for organizations regarding documenting. CONCLUSIONS: Data collected will provide a critical methodological foundation for costing large community-based EBP strategies and provide clarity for stakeholders on the cost of implementing EBP strategies to reduce opioid overdose deaths.

Trends in buprenorphine dosage and days supplied for new treatment episodes for opioid use disorder, 2010-2019.

BACKGROUND: Buprenorphine reduces risk of opioid overdose mortality. However, its benefits are limited by low retention, particularly in early treatment. Optimizing initial dosage may impact retention. However, little is known about the prescription characteristics of new buprenorphine treatment episodes. METHODS: In a US sample of commercial and employer-sponsored pharmacy claims, we identified new buprenorphine treatment episodes (days 1-30) from individuals ≥16 years following 90 days without buprenorphine from 2010 to 2019. Outcomes included first prescription average days supplied, first prescription average daily dosage, and average dosage on days 2, 8, 15 and 30. RESULTS: We identified 117,793 new episodes among 96,451 unique individuals. Episodes per 10,000 person-years decreased slightly over time. Stratifying by age, sex and region demonstrated decreasing episodes among individuals ≤34 years and increasing episodes among individuals ≥35 years. From 2010-2019, first prescription average days supplied and daily dosage decreased from 17.1 to 15.3 days and 13.6mg to 11.6mg, respectively. Simultaneously, the proportion of episodes without possession and with dosages <16mg increased across all days and years. By day 30, episodes without buprenorphine possession grew from 27.9% to 30.8% and episodes involving dosages of <16mg grew from 26.4% to 33.4%. CONCLUSIONS: We found that buprenorphine dosage and days supplied for new treatment episodes decreased from 2010 to 2019 while buprenorphine possession worsened. Further investigation examining the relationship between buprenorphine dosage and retention in the early treatment period is needed.

Modeling as Visioning: Exploring the Impact of Criminal Justice Reform on Health of Populations with Substance Use Disorders.

In the context of historic reckoning with the role of the criminal-legal system as a structural driver of health harms, there is mounting evidence that punitive drug policies have failed to prevent problematic drug use while fueling societal harms. In this explainer article, we discuss how simulation modeling provides a methodological framework to explore the potential outcomes (beneficial and harmful) of various drug policy alternatives, from incremental to radical. We discuss potential simulation modeling opportunities while calling for a more active role of simulation modeling in visioning and operationalizing transformative change. Highlights: This article discusses opportunities for simulation modeling in projecting health and economic impacts (beneficial and harmful) of drug-related criminal justice reforms.We call on modelers to explore radical interventions to reduce drug-related harm and model grand alternative futures in addition to more probable scenarios, with a goal of opening up policy discourse to these options.

A study protocol for Project I-Test: a cluster randomized controlled trial of a practice coaching intervention to increase HIV testing in substance use treatment programs.

BACKGROUND: People with substance use disorders are vulnerable to acquiring HIV. Testing is fundamental to diagnosis, treatment, and prevention; however, in the past decade, there has been a decline in the number of substance use disorder (SUD) treatment programs offering on-site HIV testing. Fewer than half of SUDs in the USA offer on-site HIV testing. In addition, nearly a quarter of newly diagnosed cases have AIDS at the time of diagnosis. Lack of testing is one of the main reasons that annual HIV incidences have remained constant over time. Integration of HIV testing with testing for HCV, an infection prevalent among persons vulnerable to HIV infection, and in settings where they receive health services, including opioid treatment programs (OTPs), is of great public health importance. METHODS/DESIGN: In this 3-arm cluster-RCT of opioid use disorders treatment programs, we test the effect of two evidence-based "practice coaching" (PC) interventions on the provision and sustained implementation of on-site HIV testing, on-site HIV/HCV testing, and linkage to care. Using the National Survey of Substance Abuse Treatment Services data available from SAMHSA, 51 sites are randomly assigned to one of the three conditions: practice coach facilitated structured conversations around implementing change, with provision of resources and documents to support the implementation of (1) HIV testing only, or (2) HIV/HCV testing, and (3) a control condition that provides a package with information only. We collect quantitative (e.g., HIV and HCV testing at 6-month-long intervals) and qualitative site data near the time of randomization, and again approximately 7-12 months after randomization. DISCUSSION: Innovative and comprehensive approaches that facilitate and promote the adoption and sustainability of HIV and HCV testing in opioid treatment programs are important for addressing and reducing HIV and HCV infection rates. This study is one of the first to test organizational approaches (practice coaching) to increase HIV and HIV/HCV testing and linkage to care among individuals receiving treatment for opioid use disorder. The study may provide valuable insight and knowledge on the multiple levels of intervention that, if integrated, may better position OTPs to improve and sustain testing practices and improve population health. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03135886. Registered on 2 May 2017.

Economic Evaluation of Extended-Release Buprenorphine for Persons With Opioid Use Disorder.

Importance: In 2017, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved a monthly injectable form of buprenorphine, extended-release buprenorphine; published data show that extended-release buprenorphine is effective compared with no treatment, but its current cost is higher and current retention is lower than that of transmucosal buprenorphine. Preliminary research suggests that extended-release buprenorphine may be an important addition to treatment options, but the cost-effectiveness of extended-release buprenorphine compared with transmucosal buprenorphine remains unclear. Objective: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of extended-release buprenorphine compared with transmucosal buprenorphine. Design, Setting, and Participants: This economic evaluation used a state transition model starting in 2019 to simulate the lifetime of a closed cohort of individuals with OUD presenting for evaluation for opioid agonist treatment with buprenorphine. The data sources used to estimate model parameters included cohort studies, clinical trials, and administrative data. The model relied on pharmaceutical costs from the Federal Supply Schedule and health care utilization costs from published studies. Data were analyzed from September 2021 to January 2023. Interventions: No treatment, treatment with transmucosal buprenorphine, or treatment with extended-release buprenorphine. Main Outcomes and Measures: Mean lifetime costs per person, discounted quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Results: The simulated cohort included 100 000 patients with OUD receiving (61% male; mean [SD] age, 38 [11] years) or not receiving medication treatment (58% male, mean [SD] age, 48 [18] years). Compared with no medication treatment, treatment with transmucosal buprenorphine yielded an ICER of $19 740 per QALY. Compared with treatment with transmucosal buprenorphine, treatment with extended-release buprenorphine yielded lower effectiveness by 0.03 QALYs per person at higher cost, suggesting that treatment with extended-release buprenorphine was dominated and not preferred. In probabilistic sensitivity analyses, treatment with transmucosal buprenorphine was the preferred strategy 60% of the time. Treatment with extended-release buprenorphine was cost-effective compared with treatment with transmucosal buprenorphine at a $100 000 per QALY willingness-to-pay threshold only after substantial changes in key parameters. Conclusions and Relevance: In this economic evaluation of extended-release buprenorphine compared with transmucosal buprenorphine for the treatment of OUD, extended-release buprenorphine was not associated with efficient allocation of limited resources when transmucosal buprenorphine was available. Future initiatives should aim to improve retention rates or decrease costs associated with extended-release buprenorphine.

Changes to opioid overdose deaths and community naloxone access among Black, Hispanic and White people from 2016 to 2021 with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic: An interrupted time-series analysis in Massachusetts, USA.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The onset of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic was associated with a surge in opioid overdose deaths in Massachusetts, particularly affecting racial and ethnic minority communities. We aimed to compare the impact of the pandemic on opioid overdose fatalities and naloxone distribution from community-based programs across racial and ethnic groups in Massachusetts. DESIGN: Interrupted time-series. SETTING AND CASES: Opioid overdose deaths (OODs) among non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic and non-Hispanic other race people in Massachusetts, USA (January 2016 to June 2021). MEASUREMENTS: Rate of OODs per 100 000 people, rate of naloxone kits distributed per 100 000 people and ratio of naloxone kits per opioid overdose death as a measure of naloxone availability. We applied five imputation strategies using complete data in different periods to account for missingness of race and ethnicity for naloxone data. FINDINGS: Before COVID-19 (January 2016 to February 2020), the rate of OODs declined among non-Hispanic White people [0.2% monthly reduction (95% confidence interval = 0.0-0.4%)], yet was relatively constant among all other population groups. The rate of naloxone kits increased across all groups (0.8-1.2% monthly increase) and the ratio of naloxone kits per OOD death among non-Hispanic White was 1.1% (0.8-1.4%) and among Hispanic people was 1.0% (0.2-1.8%). After the onset of the pandemic (March 2020+), non-Hispanic Black people experienced an immediate increase in the rate of OODs [63.6% (16.4-130%)], whereas rates among other groups remained similar. Trends in naloxone rescue kit distribution did not substantively change among any groups, and the ratio of naloxone kits per OOD death for non-Hispanic Black people did not compensate for the surge in OODs deaths in this group. CONCLUSIONS: With the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a surge in opioid overdose deaths among non-Hispanic Black people in Massachusetts, USA with no compensatory increase in naloxone rescue kit distribution. For non-Hispanic White and Hispanic people, opioid overdose deaths remained stable and naloxone kit distribution continued to increase.

A study protocol for Project I-Test: a cluster randomized controlled trial of a practice coaching intervention to increase HIV testing in substance use treatment programs.

Background People with substance use disorders are vulnerable to acquiring HIV. Testing is fundamental to diagnosis, treatment, and prevention; however, in the past decade, there has been a decline in the number of substance use disorder (SUD) treatment programs offering on-site HIV testing. Fewer than half of SUDs in the United States offer on-site HIV testing. In addition, nearly a quarter of newly diagnosed cases have AIDS at the time of diagnosis. Lack of testing is one of the main reasons that annual HIV incidences have remained constant over time. Integration of HIV testing with testing for HCV, an infection prevalent among persons vulnerable to HIV infection, and in settings where they receive health services, including opioid treatment programs (OTPs), is of great public health importance. Methods/Design In this 3-arm cluster-RCT of opioid use disorders treatment programs, we test the effect of two evidence-based "practice coaching" (PC) interventions on: the provision and sustained implementation of on-site HIV testing, on-site HIV/HCV testing, and linkage to care. Using the National Survey of Substance Abuse Treatment Services data available from SAMHSA, 51 sites are randomly assigned to one of the three conditions: practice coach facilitated structured conversations around implementing change, with provision of resources and documents to support the implementation of (1) HIV testing only, or (2) HIV/HCV testing, and (3) a control condition that provides a package with information only. We collect quantitative (e,g., HIV and HCV testing at six-month-long intervals) and qualitative site data near the time of randomization, and again approximately 7-12 months after randomization. Discussion Innovative and comprehensive approaches that facilitate and promote the adoption and sustainability of HIV and HCV testing in opioid treatment programs are important for addressing and reducing HIV and HCV infection rates. This study is one of the first to test organizational approaches (practice coaching) to increase HIV and HIV/HCV testing and linkage to care among individuals receiving treatment for opioid use disorder. The study may provide valuable insight and knowledge on the multiple levels of intervention that, if integrated, may better position OTPs to improve and sustain testing practices and improve population health. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT03135886. (02 05 2017).

Safety and tolerability of isoniazid preventive therapy for tuberculosis for persons with HIV with and without alcohol use.

OBJECTIVE: Isoniazid (INH) preventive therapy is recommended to prevent tuberculosis (TB) disease for persons with HIV (PWH), except for those with regular and heavy alcohol consumption, due to hepatotoxicity concerns. We aimed to quantify the incidence of severe INH-related toxicity among PWH with and without recent alcohol consumption. DESIGN: A prospective study of PWH receiving INH. METHODS: We included PWH in southwest Uganda with recent (prior 3 months) ( n  = 200) or no (prior year) self-reported alcohol consumption ( n  = 101), on antiretroviral therapy, TB infected (≥5 mm on tuberculin skin test), and alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) 2× or less the upper limit of normal (ULN). Grade 3+ INH-related toxicity was ALT or AST at least 5× the ULN or severe symptoms; we stopped IPT upon detection. Grade 2 INH-related toxicity was ALT or AST 2-5× the ULN or moderate symptoms. RESULTS: The cumulative incidence of Grade 3+ INH-related toxicity was 8.3% [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 5.4-12.0]; all resolved after INH cessation. Incidence was 6.0% (95% CI 3.1-10.2) among those reporting recent alcohol use and 12.9% (95% CI 7.0-21.0) among those reporting no prior year alcohol use. We found no differences by baseline phosphatidylethanol-confirmed alcohol severity. The cumulative incidence of Grade 2 toxicities (without Grade 3+) was 21.7% (95% CI 17.0-27.1); 25.0% (95% CI 19.0-31.8) among those with recent alcohol use and 14.8% (95% CI 8.1-23.9) among those with no prior year alcohol use. CONCLUSION: Alcohol use does not appear to increase risk for serious INH-related toxicity among PWH without significant liver enzyme elevations at baseline (≤2x ULN).

Population-Level Health Effects of Involuntary Displacement of People Experiencing Unsheltered Homelessness Who Inject Drugs in US Cities.

Importance: At least 500 000 people in the US experience homelessness nightly. More than 30% of people experiencing homelessness also have a substance use disorder. Involuntary displacement is a common practice in responding to unsheltered people experiencing homelessness. Understanding the health implications of displacement (eg, "sweeps," "clearings," "cleanups") is important, especially as they relate to key substance use disorder outcomes. Objective: To estimate the long-term health effects of involuntary displacement of people experiencing homelessness who inject drugs in 23 US cities. Design, Setting, and Participants: A closed cohort microsimulation model that simulates the natural history of injection drug use and health outcomes among people experiencing homelessness who inject drugs in 23 US cities. The model was populated with city-level data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National HIV Behavioral Surveillance system and published data to make representative cohorts of people experiencing homelessness who inject drugs in those cities. Main Outcomes and Measures: Projected outcomes included overdose mortality, serious injection-related infections and mortality related to serious injection-related infections, hospitalizations, initiations of medications for opioid use disorder, and life-years lived over a 10-year period for 2 scenarios: "no displacement" and "continual involuntary displacement." The population-attributable fraction of continual displacement to mortality was estimated among this population. Results: Models estimated between 974 and 2175 additional overdose deaths per 10 000 people experiencing homelessness at 10 years in scenarios in which people experiencing homelessness who inject drugs were continually involuntarily displaced compared with no displacement. Between 611 and 1360 additional people experiencing homelessness who inject drugs per 10 000 people were estimated to be hospitalized with continual involuntary displacement, and there will be an estimated 3140 to 8812 fewer initiations of medications for opioid use disorder per 10 000 people. Continual involuntary displacement may contribute to between 15.6% and 24.4% of additional deaths among unsheltered people experiencing homelessness who inject drugs over a 10-year period. Conclusion and Relevance: Involuntary displacement of people experiencing homelessness may substantially increase drug-related morbidity and mortality. These findings have implications for the practice of involuntary displacement, as well as policies such as access to housing and supportive services, that could mitigate these harms.

Estimated Clinical Outcomes and Cost-effectiveness Associated With Provision of Addiction Treatment in US Primary Care Clinics.

Importance: US primary care practitioners (PCPs) are the largest clinical workforce, but few provide addiction care. Primary care is a practical place to expand addiction services, including buprenorphine and harm reduction kits, yet the clinical outcomes and health care sector costs are unknown. Objective: To estimate the long-term clinical outcomes, costs, and cost-effectiveness of integrated buprenorphine and harm reduction kits in primary care for people who inject opioids. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this modeling study, the Reducing Infections Related to Drug Use Cost-Effectiveness (REDUCE) microsimulation model, which tracks serious injection-related infections, overdose, hospitalization, and death, was used to examine the following treatment strategies: (1) PCP services with external referral to addiction care (status quo), (2) PCP services plus onsite buprenorphine prescribing with referral to offsite harm reduction kits (BUP), and (3) PCP services plus onsite buprenorphine prescribing and harm reduction kits (BUP plus HR). Model inputs were derived from clinical trials and observational cohorts, and costs were discounted annually at 3%. The cost-effectiveness was evaluated over a lifetime from the modified health care sector perspective, and sensitivity analyses were performed to address uncertainty. Model simulation began January 1, 2021, and ran for the entire lifetime of the cohort. Main Outcomes and Measures: Life-years (LYs), hospitalizations, mortality from sequelae (overdose, severe skin and soft tissue infections, and endocarditis), costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Results: The simulated cohort included 2.25 million people and reflected the age and gender of US persons who inject opioids. Status quo resulted in 6.56 discounted LYs at a discounted cost of $203 500 per person (95% credible interval, $203 000-$222 000). Each strategy extended discounted life expectancy: BUP by 0.16 years and BUP plus HR by 0.17 years. Compared with status quo, BUP plus HR reduced sequelae-related mortality by 33%. The mean discounted lifetime cost per person of BUP and BUP plus HR were more than that of the status quo strategy. The dominating strategy was BUP plus HR. Compared with status quo, BUP plus HR was cost-effective (ICER, $34 400 per LY). During a 5-year time horizon, BUP plus HR cost an individual PCP practice approximately $13 000. Conclusions and Relevance: This modeling study of integrated addiction service in primary care found improved clinical outcomes and modestly increased costs. The integration of addiction service into primary care practices should be a health care system priority.

Estimated Costs and Outcomes Associated With Use and Nonuse of Medications for Opioid Use Disorder During Incarceration and at Release in Massachusetts.

Importance: Most prisons and jails in the US discontinue medications for opioid use disorder (MOUD) upon incarceration and do not initiate MOUD prior to release. Objective: To model the association of MOUD access during incarceration and at release with population-level overdose mortality and OUD-related treatment costs in Massachusetts. Design, Setting, and Participants: This economic evaluation used simulation modeling and cost-effectiveness with costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) discounted at 3% to compare MOUD treatment strategies in a corrections cohort and an open cohort representing individuals with OUD in Massachusetts. Data were analyzed between July 1, 2021, and September 30, 2022. Exposures: Three strategies were compared: (1) no MOUD provided during incarceration or at release, (2) extended-release (XR) naltrexone offered only at release from incarceration, and (3) all 3 MOUDs (naltrexone, buprenorphine, and methadone) offered at intake. Main Outcomes and Measures: Treatment starts and retention, fatal overdoses, life-years and QALYs, costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Results: Among 30 000 simulated incarcerated individuals with OUD, offering no MOUD was associated with 40 927 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 39 001-42 082) MOUD treatment starts over a 5-year period and 1259 (95% UI, 1130-1323) overdose deaths after 5 years. Over 5 years, offering XR-naltrexone at release led to 10 466 (95% UI, 8515-12 201) additional treatment starts, 40 (95% UI, 16-50) fewer overdose deaths, and 0.08 (95% UI, 0.05-0.11) QALYs gained per person, at an incremental cost of $2723 (95% UI, $141-$5244) per person. In comparison, offering all 3 MOUDs at intake led to 11 923 (95% UI, 10 861-12 911) additional treatment starts, compared with offering no MOUD, 83 (95% UI, 72-91) fewer overdose deaths, and 0.12 (95% UI, 0.10-0.17) QALYs per person gained, at an incremental cost of $852 (95% UI, $14-$1703) per person. Thus, XR-naltrexone only was a dominated strategy (both less effective and more costly) and the ICER of all 3 MOUDs compared with no MOUD was $7252 (95% UI, $140-$10 018) per QALY. Among everyone with OUD in Massachusetts, XR-naltrexone only averted 95 overdose deaths over 5 years (95% UI, 85-169)-a 0.9% decrease in state-level overdose mortality-while the all-MOUD strategy averted 192 overdose deaths (95% UI, 156-200)-a 1.8% decrease. Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this simulation-modeling economic study suggest that offering any MOUD to incarcerated individuals with OUD would prevent overdose deaths and that offering all 3 MOUDs would prevent more deaths and save money compared with an XR-naltrexone-only strategy.

At the intersection of trust and mistrust: A qualitative analysis of motivators and barriers to research participation at a safety-net hospital.

INTRODUCTION: The underrepresentation of Black, Indigenous, and People of Color (BIPOC) individuals in healthcare research limits generalizability and contributes to healthcare inequities. Existing barriers and attitudes toward research participation must be addressed to increase the representation of safety net and other underserved populations. METHODS: We conducted semi-structured qualitative interviews with patients at an urban safety net hospital, focusing on facilitators, barriers, motivators, and preferences for research participation. We conducted direct content analysis guided by an implementation framework and used rapid analysis methods to generate final themes. RESULTS: We completed 38 interviews and identified six major themes related to preferences for engagement in research participation: (1) wide variation in research recruitment preferences; (2) logistical complexity negatively impacts willingness to participate; (3) risk contributes to hesitation toward research participation; (4) personal/community benefit, interest in study topic, and compensation serve as motivators for research participation; (5) continued participation despite reported shortcomings of informed consent process; and (6) mistrust could be overcome by relationship or credibility of information sources. CONCLUSION: Despite barriers to participation in research studies among safety-net populations, there are also facilitators that can be implemented to increase knowledge and comprehension, ease of participation, and willingness to join research studies. Study teams should vary recruitment and participation methods to ensure equal access to research opportunities. PATIENT/PUBLIC CONTRIBUTION: Our analysis methods and study progress were presented to individuals within the Boston Medical Center healthcare system. Through this process community engagement specialists, clinical experts, research directors, and others with significant experience working with safety-net populations supported data interpretation and provided recommendations for action following the dissemination of data.

Keep It Up! 3.0: Study protocol for a type III hybrid implementation-effectiveness cluster-randomized trial.

BACKGROUND: Despite evidence that eHealth approaches can be effective in reducing HIV risk, their implementation requirements for public health scale up are not well established, and effective strategies to bring these programs into practice are still unknown. Keep It Up! (KIU!) is an online program proven to reduce HIV risk among young men who have sex with men (YMSM) and ideal candidate to develop and evaluate novel strategies for implementing eHealth HIV prevention programs. KIU! 3.0 is a Type III Hybrid Effectiveness-Implementation cluster randomized trial designed to 1) compare two strategies for implementing KIU!: community-based organizations (CBO) versus centralized direct-to-consumer (DTC) recruitment; 2) examine the effect of strategies and determinants on variability in implementation success; and 3) develop materials for sustainment of KIU! after the trial concludes. In this article, we describe the approaches used to achieve these aims. METHODS: Using county-level population estimates of YMSM, 66 counties were selected and randomized 2:1 to the CBO and DTC approaches. The RE-AIM model was used to drive outcome measurements, which were collected from CBO staff, YMSM, and technology providers. Mixed-methods research mapped onto the domains of the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research will examine determinants and their relationship with implementation outcomes. DISCUSSION: In comparing our implementation recruitment models, we are examining two strategies which have shown effectiveness in delivering health technology interventions in the past, yet little is known about their comparative advantages and disadvantages in implementation. The results of the trial will further the understanding of eHealth prevention intervention implementation.

"Community members have more impact on their neighbors than celebrities": leveraging community partnerships to build COVID-19 vaccine confidence.

BACKGROUND: Vaccines are a strong public health tool to protect against severe disease, hospitalization, and death from COVID-19. Still, inequities in COVID-19 vaccination rates and health outcomes continue to exist among Black and Latino populations. Boston Medical Center (BMC) has played a significant role in vaccinating medically underserved populations, and organized a series of community-engaged conversations to better understand community concerns regarding the COVID-19 vaccine. This paper describes the themes which resulted from these community-engaged conversations and proposes next steps for healthcare leaders. METHODS: We accessed nine publicly available recordings of the community-engaged conversations which were held between March 2021 and September 2021 and ranged from 8 to 122 attendees. Six conversations prioritized specific groups: the Haitian-Creole community, the Cape Verdean community, the Latino community, the Black Christian Faith community, guardians who care for children living with disabilities, and individuals affected by systemic lupus erythematosus. Remaining conversations targeted the general public of the Greater Boston Area. We employed a Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research-driven codebook to code our data. Our analysis utilized a modified version of qualitative rapid analysis methods. RESULTS: Five main themes emerged from these community-engaged conversations: (1) Structural factors are important barriers to COVID-19 vaccination; (2) Mistrust exists due to the negative impact of systemic oppression and perceived motivation of the government; (3) There is a desire to learn more about biological and clinical characteristics of the COVID-19 vaccine as well as the practical implications of being vaccinated; (4) Community leaders emphasize community engagement for delivering COVID-19 information and education and; (5) Community leaders believe that the COVID-19 vaccine is a solution to address the pandemic. CONCLUSION: This study illustrates a need for community-engaged COVID-19 vaccine messaging which reflects the nuances of the COVID-19 vaccine and pandemic without oversimplifying information. In highlighting common concerns of the Greater Boston Area which contribute to a lack of confidence in the COVID-19 vaccine, we underscore important considerations for public health and healthcare leadership in the development of initiatives which work to advance health equity.