Evaluation of overland flow modelling hypotheses with a multi-objective calibration using discharge and sediment data.

Conceptual hydrological models can move towards process-oriented modelling when addressing broader issues than discharge modelling alone. For instance, water quality modelling generally requires understanding of both pathways and travel times which might not be easily identified because observations at the outlet aggregate all processes at the catchment scale. In this study we tested if adding a second kind of observation, specifically sediment data, can help distinguish overland flow from total discharge. We applied a multi-objective calibration on both discharge and suspended sediment concentration simulation performance to the World-Wide Hydrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE) model for 111 catchments spread over the USA. Results show that in comparison to two calibrations made one after the other, the multi-objective calibration leads to a significant improvement on the simulation performance of suspended sediments without a significant impact on the performance of discharge. New modelling hypotheses for overland flow calculations are proposed and resulted in similar discharge performances as the original one but with fewer parameters, which reduces equifinality and can prevent unwarranted model complexity in data-poor areas.

Controls on Dissolved Organic Carbon Bioreactivity in River Systems.

Inland waters transport, transform and retain significant amounts of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) that may be biologically reactive (bioreactive) and thus potentially degraded into atmospheric CO2. Despite its global importance, relatively little is known about environmental controls on bioreactivity of DOC as it moves through river systems with varying water residence time (WRT). Here we determined the influence of WRT and landscape properties on DOC bioreactivity in 15 Swedish catchments spanning a large geographical and environmental gradient. We found that the short-term bioreactive pools (0-6 d of decay experiments) were linked to high aquatic primary productivity that, in turn, was stimulated by phosphorus loading from forested, agricultural and urban areas. Unexpectedly, the percentage of long-term bioreactive DOC (determined in 1-year experiments) increased with WRT, possibly due to photo-transformation of recalcitrant DOC from terrestrial sources into long-term bioreactive DOC with relatively lower aromaticity. Thus, despite overall decreases in DOC during water transit through the inland water continuum, DOC becomes relatively more bioreactive on a long time-scale. This increase in DOC bioreactivity with increasing WRT along the freshwater continuum has previously been overlooked. Further studies are needed to explain the processes and mechanisms behind this pattern on a molecular level.

Water quality modelling: microbial risks associated with manure on pasture and arable land.

While agricultural activities, such as the application of manure on arable land and animal grazing on pastures, provide economic and environmental benefits, they may also pose microbial risks to water sources. The aim of this paper was to study the microbial fate and transport in an agricultural catchment and recipient water source through further development of the hydrological model HYPE. Hydrological modelling was combined with hydrodynamic modelling to simulate the fate and transport of Salmonella spp., verotoxin-producing Escherichia coli O157:H7 (VTEC) and Cryptosporidium parvum in an agricultural catchment of a drinking water source, Lake Vombsjön, in Sweden. This approach was useful to study the influence of different processes on the pathogen fate and transport, and to interpret the relative changes in the simulated concentrations. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the largest uncertainties in the model were associated with the estimation of pathogen loads, parameterisation of the pathogen processes, and simulation of partitioning between surface runoff and infiltration. The proposed modelling approach is valuable for assessing the relative effect of different risk-reducing interventions.

Assessing the use of δ18O in phosphate as a tracer for catchment phosphorus sources.

Procedures for source apportionment of nutrients transported in rivers and streams are often uncertain and difficult to validate. In this study, we investigated if the oxygen isotope ratios in stream dissolved phosphate (δ18OP) can be used to distinguish between the phosphorus (P) originating from agricultural runoff and from rural sewage, at different periods of the year. Water was collected from septic tanks, drainage wells and the stream outlet in a small (7.3 km2) agricultural catchment to capture variations in the isotope signature at different flow events. The δ18OP signature in septic tank effluent (+13.2 to +14.5‰) was significantly different from that in drainage water (+9.0 to +15.7‰). Four different septic tanks had surprisingly similar isotope signature when 24 h composite samples were collected. Most of the water samples were not in oxygen isotope equilibrium. In three drainage wells, the δ18OP signature varied from +7.8 up to +15.7‰ with higher values in periods with a larger contribution of superficial streamflow generation. A rainfall soon after manure had been spread resulted in a δ18OP of 15.7‰ in a drainage well, and was also reflected in a similar value at the catchment outlet. This implies that the source isotope signal may be conserved during moderate or high flows. A three end-member model including the geological background would be a useful start to quantify the P contribution from diverse sources. Temporal differences in biological activity and the predominant transport pathways through soil profiles must be considered along with information about fertilisation. In combination with hydrological modelling of water pathways, this may considerably improve our understanding of catchment P losses.

Using process-based models to filter out natural variability in observed concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus in river water.

Advances in process-based modelling of loads of nitrogen and phosphorus carried by rivers have created new possibilities to interpret time series of water quality data. We examined how model runs with constant anthropogenic forcing can be used to estimate and filter out weather-driven variation in observational data and, thereby, draw attention to other features of such data. An assessment of measured and modelled nutrient concentrations at the outlets of 45 Swedish rivers provided promising results for total nitrogen. In particular, joint analyses of observational data and outputs from the catchment model S-HYPE strengthened the evidence that downward trends in nitrogen were due to mitigation measures in agriculture. Evaluation of modelled and observed total phosphorus concentrations revealed considerable bias in the collection or chemical analysis of water samples and also identified weaknesses in the model outputs. Together, our results highlight the need for more efficient two-way communication between environmental modelling and monitoring.

Parameter precision in the HBV-NP model and impacts on nitrogen scenario simulations in the Rönneå river, southern Sweden.

The HBV-NP model is a newly developed water quality model that describes the turnover and fluxes of both nitrogen and phosphorous. It is based on the conceptual precipitation/runoff HBV model. The HBV-NP model was applied for simulation of nitrogen for the Rönneå catchment in southern Sweden. The catchment was divided into 64 subcatchments in the model. Discharge measurements from six stations and nitrogen measurements from 12 stations were used in the calibration of parameters in the model. Eight automatic calibrations were performed with different combinations of time periods, objective functions, and levels of the nitrogen load in the model. A regionally extended interpretation of the Nash-Sutcliffe R2 criterion was used in the calibration. In the evaluation of the criterion, the errors were summed over both time steps and sampling points. Scenario simulations of combined measures for reduction of nitrogen load into the sea by 30% were thereafter performed with the eight sets of parameters established by calibration. The model parameters were not uniquely defined by the calibration. However, the simulated relative reduction of nitrogen load into the sea was relatively insensitive to the choice of parameter set, given the available input sources, variables, and data.

Recent mild and wet years in relation to long observation records and future climate change in Sweden.

Recent mild and wet years in Sweden were compared with long observation series of temperature, precipitation and runoff. Spatial average series for northern and southern Sweden were constructed and analyzed for the period 1901-2002. Precipitation increased considerably during the period, whereas temperature and runoff increases were weaker. On average, for the whole country, the differences between the period 1991-2002 and 1901-1990 were +0.7 degrees C for temperature, +11% in precipitation and +7% in runoff. The differences in temperature and precipitation, but not runoff, were significant at the 5% level. However, the 1930s were equally mild, and the runoff was almost as high in the 1920s. The characteristic feature of the past decade is the combination of high temperature, precipitation and runoff. The deviation between the most recent decade and the preceding years is consistent with climate scenario projections for Sweden, but there are also differences in the seasonal pattern.

Hydrological change--climate change impact simulations for Sweden.

Climate change resulting from the enhanced greenhouse effect is expected to give rise to changes in hydrological systems. This hydrological change, as with the change in climate variables, will vary regionally around the globe. Impact studies at local and regional scales are needed to assess how different regions will be affected. This study focuses on assessment of hydrological impacts of climate change over a wide range of Swedish basins. Different methods of transferring the signal of climate change from climate models to hydrological models were used. Several hydrological model simulations using regional climate model scenarios from Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme (SWECLIM) are presented. A principal conclusion is that subregional impacts to river flow vary considerably according to whether a basin is in northern or southern Sweden. Furthermore, projected hydrological change is just as dependent on the choice of the global climate model used for regional climate model boundary conditions as the choice of anthropogenic emissions scenario.