Exploring the effects of methodological choices on the estimation and biological interpretation of life history parameters for harbour porpoises in Norway and beyond.

This study investigates effects of subtle methodological choices on the estimation and biological interpretation of age, growth and reproductive parameters for harbour porpoises. The core analyses are based on a focal Norwegian data set built on samples from 134 harbour porpoises caught incidentally in gillnet fisheries along the Norwegian coast during autumn 2016 and spring 2017. Two contrasting practices for interpretation of seasonal and ontogenetic characteristics of tooth growth layer formation resulted in significant age differences among spring samples of young porpoises and for older animals across seasons. In turn, these differences affected estimates of age at maturity and asymptotic lengths, respectively. We also found significant differences in male age at maturity between two well-documented maturity criteria and between mathematical estimators of age at maturity for both sexes. Two different criteria for corpus albicans classification furthermore resulted in different patterns of ovarian corpora accumulation, which may affect some estimates of fecundity rates and contaminant loads. Both corpora accumulation patterns were also found in reanalysed data from German and Greenlandic porpoises. Based on tabulated overviews of methodological choices made in previous harbour porpoise studies, we argue that several of the issues mentioned above have wider relevance and may affect the validity of meta-analyses as a tool for estimating harbour porpoise sensitivity to extrinsic pressures. Differences in cause of death (COD) composition between data sets can have a similar effect. We demonstrate this in a meta-analysis of published harbour porpoise pregnancy rates, showing significantly higher values for trauma-killed samples compared to samples comprising mixed COD categories. COD also affected the estimated impacts of three previously analysed extrinsic predictors as well as an added predictor for vessel noise levels. We discuss the potential contributions of methodological, biological and anthropogenic factors in shaping observed regional differences in estimates of harbour porpoise life history parameters.

Rapid climate change increases diversity and homogenizes composition of coastal fish at high latitudes.

Rapid warming at high latitudes triggers poleward shifts of species' distributions that impact marine biodiversity. In the open sea, the documented redistributions of fish lead to a borealization of Arctic fauna. A climate-driven borealization and increased species diversity at high latitudes are also expected in coastal fish communities, but they have not been previously documented on a large, biogeographic scale. Here, we investigate the impact of temperature change over the last 25 years on fish communities along the coast of Norway. The study area, spanning different ecoclimatic zones between 62° and 71° N, harbors over 200 species of boreal and Arctic fish. Several of these fish species are harvested by coastal and indigenous communities, influencing settlement geography and livelihood. The long-term data on coastal water temperatures and fish species were obtained from monitoring stations and scientific surveys. Water temperature measured at three fixed sampling stations distributed along the coast show increased temperatures during the study period. The fish species distribution and abundance data were obtained from the annually standardized scientific bottom trawl survey program. Fish species richness, which was highest in the south, increased with warming first in the south and then, gradually, further north, eventually affecting biodiversity in the whole study area. Fish community composition showed a distinct latitudinal pattern early in the study, with Arctic fish species confined to the north and boreal species dominating the south. The poleward shifts eventually eroded this zoogeographic pattern, resulting in more boreal fish species in the north and an increased homogenization of species composition along the Norwegian coast. The climate-driven reorganization of fish communities affects coastal ecosystems that are exposed to fisheries, aquaculture, and other rapidly expanding human activities, stressing the urgent need for a climate adaptation of integrated coastal management.

Drug effectiveness of 2nd and 3rd TNF inhibitors in psoriatic arthritis - relationship with the reason for withdrawal from the previous treatment.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate real-world retention and remission rates in PsA patients initiating a 2nd or 3rd TNFi and the association with reason for discontinuation from the previous TNFi-treatment. METHODS: Prospectively collected routine care data from 12 European registries were pooled. Retention rates (Kaplan-Meier estimation) and crude/LUNDEX-adjusted rates of Disease Activity Score 28 and Disease Activity index for PSoriatic Arthritis (DAS28 and DAPSA28) remission were calculated and compared with adjusted Cox regression analyses and Chi-squared test, respectively). RESULTS: We included 5233 (2nd TNFi) and 1906 (3rd TNFi) patients. Twelve-month retention rates for the 2nd and 3rd TNFi were 68% (95%CI: 67-70%) and 66% (64-68%), respectively. Patients who stopped the previous TNFi due to AE/LOE had 12-month retention rates of 66%/65% (2nd TNFi), and 65%/63% (3rd TNFi), respectively. Patients who stopped the previous TNFi due to LOE after less vs more than 24 weeks had 12-month retention rates of 54%/69% (2nd TNFi), and 58%/65% (3rd TNFi). Six-month crude/LUNDEX-adjusted DAS28 remission rates were 48%/35% and 38%/27%, and DAPSA28 remission rates were 19%/14% and 14%/10%, for the 2nd and 3rd TNFi. CONCLUSION: Two-thirds of patients remained on TNFi at 12months for both the 2nd and 3rd TNFi, while one-third and one-quarter of patients were in DAS28 remission after 6months on the 2nd and 3rd TNFi. While drug effectiveness was similar in patients who stopped the previous TNFi due to AE compared to overall LOE, drug effectiveness was better in patients who had stopped the previous TNF due to secondary LOE compared to primary LOE.

Estimated summer abundance and krill consumption of fin whales throughout the Scotia Sea during the 2018/2019 summer season.

Among large cetaceans in the Southern Hemisphere, fin whales were the most heavily exploited in terms of numbers taken during the period of intense industrial whaling. Recent studies suggest that, whilst some humpback whale populations in the Southern Hemisphere appears to have almost completely recovered to their estimated pre-whaling abundance, much less is known about the status of Southern Hemisphere fin whales. Circumpolar estimates in the 1990s suggest an abundance of about 5500 animals south of 60° S, while the IDCR/SOWER-2000 survey for the Scotia Sea and Antarctic Peninsula areas estimated 4670 fin whales within this region in the year 2000. More recent studies in smaller regions indicate higher densities, suggesting that previous estimates are overly conservative and/or that fin whales are undergoing a substantial increase. Here we report findings from a recent multi-vessel single-platform sightings survey carried out as part of the 2019 Area 48 Survey for Antarctic krill. While fin whales were encountered throughout the entire survey area, which covered the majority of CCAMLR Management Area 48, they were particularly abundant around the South Orkney Islands and the eastern Bransfield Strait. Large feeding aggregations were also encountered within the central Scotia Sea between South Orkney Islands and South Georgia. Distance sampling analyses suggest an average fin whale density throughout the Scotia Sea of 0.0256 ( CV = 0.149 ) whales per km2, which agrees well with recent density estimates reported from smaller sub-regions within the Scotia Sea. Design-based distance sampling analyses resulted in an estimated total fin whale abundance of 53,873 (CV = 0.15, 95% CI 40,233-72,138), while a density surface model resulted in a slightly lower estimate of 50,837 (CV: 0.136, 95% CI 38,966-66,324). These estimates are at least an order of magnitude greater than the previous estimate from the same region based on the IDCR/SOWER-2000 data, suggesting that fin whales are undergoing a substantial abundance increase in the South Atlantic. This may have important implications for the assessment of cetacean population trends, but also for CCAMLRs spatial overlap analysis process and efforts to implement a Feedback Management system for Antarctic krill. Our abundance estimate suggests an annual summer krill consumption by fin whales in the Antarctic Peninsula and Scotia Sea area of 7.97 (95% CI 4.94-11.91) million tonnes, which would represent around 20 times the total krill catch taken by the commercial fishery in Area 48 in the same season, or about 12.7% of the 2019 summer krill standing stock estimated from data collected during the same survey. This highlights the crucial importance of including cetacean krill predators in assessment and management efforts for living marine resources in the Southern Ocean, and particularly stresses the urgent need for a re-appraisal of abundance, distribution and ecological role of Southern Hemisphere fin whales.

Seasonal acoustic presence of marine mammals at the South Orkney Islands, Scotia Sea.

Increased knowledge about marine mammal seasonal distribution and species assemblage from the South Orkney Islands waters is needed for the development of management regulations of the commercial fishery for Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) in this region. Passive acoustic monitoring (PAM) data were collected during the autumn and winter seasons in two consecutive years (2016, 2017), which represented highly contrasting environmental conditions due to the 2016 El Niño event. We explored differences in seasonal patterns in marine mammal acoustic presence between the two years in context of environmental cues and climate variability. Acoustic signals from five baleen whale species, two pinniped species and odontocete species were detected and separated into guilds. Although species diversity remained stable over time, the ice-avoiding and ice-affiliated species dominated before and after the onset of winter, respectively, and thus demonstrating a shift in guild composition related to season. Herein, we provide novel information about local marine mammal species diversity, community structure and residency times in a krill hotspot. Our study also demonstrates the utility of PAM data and its usefulness in providing new insights into the marine mammal habitat use and responses to environmental conditions, which are essential knowledge for the future development of a sustainable fishery management in a changing ecosystem.

Are JAKis more effective among elderly patients with RA, smokers and those with higher cardiovascular risk? A comparative effectiveness study of b/tsDMARDs in Sweden.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate whether the relative effectiveness of janus kinase inhibitors (JAKis) versus tumour necrosis factor inhibitors (TNFi) or other biological disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs in rheumatoid arthritis differ by the presence or absence of risk factors for cardiovascular (CV) disease, age, sex and smoking. METHODS: Through Swedish registers, we identified 13 493 individuals with 3166 JAKi, 5575 non-TNFi and 11 286 TNFi treatment initiations 2016-2022. All lines of therapy were included, with the majority in second line or higher. Treatment response was defined as the proportion reaching European Alliance of Associations for Rheumatology (EULAR) good response and Clinical Disease Activity Index (CDAI) remission, respectively, within 6 months. Crude percentage point differences in these proportions (JAKis, and non-TNFis, vs TNFis) overall and by risk factors were observed, and adjusted for confounders using linear regression models. Predicted probabilities of response and remission were estimated from adjusted Poisson models, and presented across CV risk and age. RESULTS: Overall, adjusted percentage point differences indicated higher response (+5.0%, 95% CI 2.2% to 7.9%) and remission (+5.8%, 95% CI 3.2% to 8.5%) with JAKis versus TNFis. The adjusted percentage point differences for response in those above 65, at elevated CV risk, and smokers were +5.9% (95% CI 2.7% to 9.0%), +8.3% (95% CI 5.3% to 11.4%) and +6.0% (95% CI 3.3% to 8.7%), respectively. The corresponding estimates for remission were +8.0% (95% CI 5.3% to 10.8%), +5.6% (95% CI 3.0% to 8.2%) and +7.6% (95% CI 5.5% to 9.7%). CONCLUSIONS: As used in clinical practice, response and remission at 6 months with JAKis are higher than with TNFi. Among patients with risk factors of concern, effectiveness is similar or numerically further increased. For individualised benefit-to-risk ratios to guide treatment choice, safety and effectiveness in specific patient segments should be considered.