Life expectations in early adolescence and the timing of first sex and marriage: evidence from a longitudinal survey in Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Raising the median age at first sexual intercourse and first marriage among females is a policy goal of the Ethiopian government. Education figures prominently in the government's plans for achieving its goals, including primary and secondary schools; higher education; and out-of-school interventions such as youth centers, peer clubs, and youth associations In this study, we tested whether adolescents and youth who had high educational and occupational expectations at younger ages were at a lower risk of first sexual intercourse and marriage during adolescence and early adulthood. METHODS: Data came from multiple waves of a longitudinal survey of households and adolescents conducted in southwestern Ethiopia. A measure of career expectations was created from educational and occupational expectations measured at baseline when the adolescents were ages 13-17. The occurrence and timing of first sexual intercourse (called first sex) and marriage were measured four years later in a wave 3 survey. Discrete-time logistic hazard regression models were applied to a person-year file to predict first sex for males and females separately and first marriage for females. RESULTS: Male and female adolescents who had high career expectations at young ages were at a significantly lower risk of first sex during adolescence and early adulthood. Unlike the delaying effect of being in school, the effect of high career expectations did not wear off as adolescents aged. Among female adolescents, delaying first sex, staying in school, and having parents who desired them to marry at older ages were all associated with a significantly lower risk of marriage during adolescence and early adulthood. CONCLUSIONS: The educational and occupational expectations and family plans that youth develop early in adolescence influence the timing of the transition into sexual activity and marriage. Ethiopian youth who develop high career expectations delay first sex, which for female youth is a key predictor of age at first marriage. Adolescents' perceptions of parents' expectations for them are strongly associated with their own expectations and behavior.

Raising the median age of their first heterosexual intercourse, or first sex, and marriage for females is a policy goal of the Ethiopian government. Research in Africa has found evidence of a positive association between higher levels of completed schooling and older ages at first sex and marriage among females. A substantial body of research conducted in the United States shows that youth who develop high educational and occupational expectations at young ages also tend to delay first sex and marriage. High expectations motivate youth to stay in school longer and avoid behaviors, such as early sex and marriage, that put their goals at risk. Evidence of a similar association in Ethiopia, however, has been lacking because of the scarcity of longitudinal data. In this study, we used data from the Jimma Longitudinal Family Survey of Youth conducted in southwestern Ethiopia to examine the impact of early career expectations and marriage plans on the risk of first sex during adolescence among male and female youth and on the risk of first marriage during adolescence among females. Using discrete-time logistic hazard regression models, we found that adolescents who had high career expectations at ages 13­17 were significantly less likely to have their first sexual intercourse over the following four years. We also found that the protective effects of being in school on delaying first sex wore off with time, but the effect of high career expectations persisted. Finally, we found that parents' desire for an older age at marriage for their daughters had a significant delaying effect on daughter's marriage.

Nonverbal Response Cards Reduce Socially Desirable Reporting of Violence Among Adolescents in Rural Burkina Faso: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

PURPOSE: Accurate measures of violence are difficult to obtain from self-reported data because of stigmatization and social undesirability of the topic. Most methods that attempt to reduce such biases require literacy and either remove the benefits of interviewer guidance or do not give individual-level results. We tested a low-tech nonverbal response card that avoids revealing interviewees' responses to interviewers while retaining interviewer support among adolescents in communities with very low educational attainment. METHODS: As part of a broader health questionnaire, we asked a sample of 1,644 adolescents, aged 12-20 years, in northwestern Burkina Faso about their experiences of physical and sexual violence. We randomized participants to either a conventional verbal response arm or a nonverbal response card arm where respondents' answers were unspoken and not displayed to interviewers. We first evaluated response validity and reliability in each arm, then compared prevalence rates across arms and evaluated whether any differences varied by respondent characteristics using regression models. RESULTS: The level of internal reliability of responses among nonverbal respondents was similar to or greater than that of verbal respondents. Nonverbal respondents reported similar patterns of physical assault and sexual debut as verbal respondents but significantly higher levels of sexual assault and forced sex. These differences were broadly similar across sample subgroups defined by age, gender, proneness to social desirability, and mental health. CONCLUSIONS: Nonverbal response cards offer a practical and beneficial method for reducing underreporting of stigmatized and traumatic experiences while maintaining data quality in low-literacy populations.

The Role of Parents and Family Networks in Adolescent Health-Seeking in Ethiopia.

OBJECTIVE: This study examines the roles of parents, extended kin, and exchange networks in adolescent health-seeking behavior in Ethiopia. BACKGROUND: Prior studies highlight the role of mothers in children's health, whereas fathers, extended kin and other network partners remain largely unexamined. The gender intensification hypothesis suggests that adolescents gravitate toward same gender parents for advice and assistance with health-related issues. A more expansive view of the hypothesis suggests that other same gender adults may also be important sources of support. METHOD: Survey data were used from a random sample of 2,084 youth ages 13-17 collected in urban and rural communities in southwestern Ethiopia. Sources of advice, treatment, and accompaniment to get treatment were examined. Random intercept logistic regression models were used to identify factors associated with receipt of formal health care. RESULTS: Fathers and mothers played an important role in all phases of adolescent health-seeking behavior. Fathers' involvement was especially common in rural areas and more so with boys than girls. Extended kin and exchange networks also played a role and were even more important for boys in female-headed households, suggesting they may have substituted for absent fathers. CONCLUSION: Adolescents rely heavily on parents and other adults for health advice and treatment. Who children go to for assistance is highly gendered, especially in rural areas. IMPLICATIONS: Studies of adolescent health-seeking and interventions designed to improve health services utilization need to recognize the important involvement of parents and other closely related adults in advising youth and accompanying them to get treatment.

How Representative are Snowball Samples? Using the Ethnosurvey to Study Guatemala-U.S. Migration.

This analysis draws on binational data from an ethnosurvey conducted in Guatemala and in the United States in Providence, Rhode Island, to develop a refinement of the weighting scheme that the Mexican Migration Project uses. The alternative weighting procedure distinguishes between temporary and settled migrants by using a question on household location in the Guatemala questionnaire that is not used in the MMP. Demographic characteristics and integration experiences of the most recent U.S. trip are used to assess the composition and representativeness of the U.S. sample. Using a composite index of migrant integration to compare the impact of alternative U.S. sample weights on point estimates, I find that although the U.S. sample is broadly representative across a range of background characteristics, the MMP sample weighting procedure biases estimates of migrant integration downward.

Lifting the curtain on the conditions of sexual initiation among youth in Ethiopia.

PURPOSE: Deriving accurate estimates of the level of sexual coercion is challenging because of the stigma that is attached to the experience. This study examines the effectiveness of a nonverbal response-card method to reduce social desirability bias in reports of the conditions of sexual initiation among youth in southwestern Ethiopia. METHODS: The conditions surrounding sexual initiation are examined using data from a pilot survey and a final survey of youth aged 13-24 years. Half of the respondents in each survey were randomly assigned to a nonverbal response-card method for sensitive questions on sexual attitudes and behavior, and the other half of the respondents were assigned to a control group that provided verbal responses. Responses for the two groups to questions regarding the conditions of sexual initiation are compared. RESULTS: Respondents who used the nonverbal response card were more likely to report pressure from friends or a partner, having sex for money or another gain, and rape as conditions of sexual initiation than those who provided verbal responses. Among sexually experienced youth, 29.3% of respondents who used the card method reported some form of coercion during sexual initiation compared with 19.4% of respondents who gave verbal responses. CONCLUSIONS: The nonverbal response card provides an effective method for reducing social desirability bias when soliciting responses to sensitive questions in the context of an interviewer-administered survey. The analysis also suggests that coerced sexual initiation is underreported by youth in interviewer-administered surveys that use conventional verbal responses.

Pioneers and Followers: Migrant Selectivity and the Development of U.S. Migration Streams in Latin America.

We present a method for dividing the historical development of community migration streams into an initial period and a subsequent takeoff stage with the purpose of systemically differentiating pioneer migrants from follower migrants. The analysis is organized around five basic research questions. First, can we empirically identify a juncture in the historical development of community-based migration that marks the transition from an initial stage of low levels of migration and gradual growth into a takeoff stage in which the prevalence of migration grows at a more accelerated rate? Second, does this juncture point exist at roughly similar migration prevalence levels across communities? Third, are first-time migrants in the initial stage (pioneers) different from first-time migrants in the takeoff stage (followers)? Fourth, what is the nature of this migrant selectivity? Finally, does the nature and degree of pioneer selectivity vary across country migration streams?

Nonmarital sex and condom knowledge among Ethiopian young people: improved estimates using a nonverbal response card.

The accurate assessment of risky sexual behaviors and barriers to condom use is essential to reduce the spread of HIV/AIDS. This study tests a new nonverbal response-card method for obtaining more accurate responses to sensitive questions in the context of face-to-face interviewer-administered questionnaires in a survey of 1,269 Ethiopian young people aged 13-24. Comparisons of responses between a control group that provided verbal responses and an experimental group that used the card indicate that the prevalence of nonmarital sexual intercourse may be two times higher and knowledge of condom access may be 22 percent lower in the study than typical population-survey methods suggest. These results suggest that our nonverbal response-card method yields less biased estimates of risky adolescent sexual behavior and perceived access to condoms than those derived from conventional face-to-face interviewer-administered surveys, and that this method provides an effective, easy-to-use, low-cost alternative.

Internal migration and contraceptive knowledge and use in Guatemala.

CONTEXT: Levels of modern contraceptive knowledge and use among people living in rural areas of Guatemala differ substantially from those of people living in urban areas. Understanding the pace and extent of rural-to-urban migrants' adoption of urban contraceptive practices is important in determining if there is a strong need for migrant-focused reproductive health programs. METHODS: Bivariate and multivariate analyses of data on 971 married male and female respondents in the 1999 Guatemalan Migration and Reproductive Health Survey were used to examine how migration status and duration of residence in an urban area are associated with knowledge of modern contraceptive methods and current contraceptive use. RESULTS: Migrants' contraceptive knowledge was positively associated with the number of years they had lived in an urban area. Mayan migrants in Guatemala City did not accumulate contraceptive knowledge at the same rate as non-Mayan migrants, perhaps due to cultural and linguistic barriers to obtaining knowledge of and access to contraceptives. Rural-to-urban migrants eventually achieve a level of modern contraceptive use slightly below that of urban nonmigrants, with the level of contraceptive knowledge being an important factor associated with use of modern methods. CONCLUSIONS: Migrants possess limited knowledge of modern contraceptive methods and, therefore, may experience unmet need for contraception or may have a limited choice of modern contraceptive methods during their first years in an urban destination. Programs designed to raise contraceptive awareness and use should target recent migrants--particularly indigenous Mayans--in urban areas.

Migration and maternal health services utilization in rural Guatemala.

This article examines the relationship between migration and the use of formal maternal health-care services among rural women in Guatemala. We identify assimilation, diffusion, and remittances as three potential pathways through which migration can affect health-care service utilization in rural areas. Using data from the 1995 Guatemalan Survey of Family Health and multi-level regression models, we estimate the impact of migration experience at the individual, household, and community level on the use of formal prenatal care and delivery assistance. We find that urban migration experience and having relatives abroad are associated with a greater likelihood of formal prenatal care utilization, after taking account of background characteristics and enabling resources. Migration experience at all levels is also strongly associated with formal delivery assistance; however, this association operates primarily through the positive association between migration and enabling resources. The differential effects of out-migration on maternal health-care service utilization reflect the different barriers to service use that exist for formal prenatal care and delivery assistance. Financial cost and geographic access are the most important barriers to formal delivery assistance, whereas awareness and acceptance remain as important barriers to the use of formal prenatal care in rural Guatemala. Urban migration experience and social ties to urban and international migrants lower the barriers to formal maternal health-care utilization through the acquisition and diffusion of new ideas and practices, and the return flow of financial resources.

Migration and the diffusion of modern contraceptive knowledge and use in rural Guatemala.

This article uses the concept of social networks as it is employed in the research literature on family planning and migration to explore the impact of out-migration on modern contraceptive knowledge and use in rural Guatemala. Data for this study come from the 1995 Guatemalan Survey of Family Health. Results from multilevel regression models indicate that urban migration experience, having migrant kin in urban or international destinations, and living in a community where urban migration is common are all associated with greater contraceptive knowledge. Social ties to urban or international migrants are also associated with a greater likelihood of modern contraceptive use among married women, but this association works primarily through increased contraceptive knowledge. The findings of significant diffusion effects provide support for recent theories of fertility decline that emphasize the role of social interactions.

The proximate determinants of the decline to below-replacement fertility in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Between 1990 and 2000, the total fertility rate (TFR) in Ethiopia declined moderately from 6.4 to 5.9 children per woman of reproductive age. During the same period, the TFR in the capital city of Addis Ababa declined from 3.1 to 1.9 children per woman. Even more striking than the magnitude of this decline is that it occurred in the absence of a strong and effective national family planning program. In this study, the components of this fertility decline are identified using the Bongaarts framework of the proximate determinants of fertility. The results of a decomposition analysis indicate that a decrease in the age-specific proportions of women who are married, followed by an increase in contraceptive use are the most important mechanisms by which fertility has declined in Addis Ababa. Poor employment prospects and relatively high housing costs are likely factors that encourage couples to delay marriage and reduce marital fertility.