The 'Oumuamua Controversy: Bayesian Priors and the Evolution of Technological Intelligence.

Was the interstellar object 'Oumuamua a light sail constructed by aliens (hypothesis A) or can it be explained by more natural processes (hypothesis N)? To compare these two hypotheses, a Bayesian analysis of the Sagan standard is introduced. I show that apparently contradictory answers are not contradictory when one is careful about the specific question one is trying to answer. Different estimates of prior odds play the dominant role in the controversy. The existence of technological alien civilizations is largely an issue of evolutionary biology, not astronomy. I argue that, based on tens of millions of independent evolutionary experiments here on Earth, the probability of technological alien civilizations is somewhere between zero and tiny. This extremely low prior decreases the probability of A being favored in the posterior odds, but counterintuitively increases the power of the new evidence to favor A.

Cancer progression as a sequence of atavistic reversions.

It has long been recognized that cancer onset and progression represent a type of reversion to an ancestral quasi-unicellular phenotype. This general concept has been refined into the atavistic model of cancer that attempts to provide a quantitative analysis and testable predictions based on genomic data. Over the past decade, support for the multicellular-to-unicellular reversion predicted by the atavism model has come from phylostratigraphy. Here, we propose that cancer onset and progression involve more than a one-off multicellular-to-unicellular reversion, and are better described as a series of reversionary transitions. We make new predictions based on the chronology of the unicellular-eukaryote-to-multicellular-eukaryote transition. We also make new predictions based on three other evolutionary transitions that occurred in our lineage: eukaryogenesis, oxidative phosphorylation and the transition to adaptive immunity. We propose several modifications to current phylostratigraphy to improve age resolution to test these predictions. Also see the video abstract here: https://youtu.be/3unEu5JYJrQ.

Global biogeography since Pangaea.

The break-up of the supercontinent Pangaea around 180 Ma has left its imprint on the global distribution of species and resulted in vicariance-driven speciation. Here, we test the idea that the molecular clock dates, for the divergences of species whose geographical ranges were divided, should agree with the palaeomagnetic dates for the continental separations. Our analysis of recently available phylogenetic divergence dates of 42 pairs of vertebrate taxa, selected for their reduced ability to disperse, demonstrates that the divergence dates in phylogenetic trees of continent-bound terrestrial and freshwater vertebrates are consistent with the palaeomagnetic dates of continental separation.

Ancient genes establish stress-induced mutation as a hallmark of cancer.

Cancer is sometimes depicted as a reversion to single cell behavior in cells adapted to live in a multicellular assembly. If this is the case, one would expect that mutation in cancer disrupts functional mechanisms that suppress cell-level traits detrimental to multicellularity. Such mechanisms should have evolved with or after the emergence of multicellularity. This leads to two related, but distinct hypotheses: 1) Somatic mutations in cancer will occur in genes that are younger than the emergence of multicellularity (1000 million years [MY]); and 2) genes that are frequently mutated in cancer and whose mutations are functionally important for the emergence of the cancer phenotype evolved within the past 1000 million years, and thus would exhibit an age distribution that is skewed to younger genes. In order to investigate these hypotheses we estimated the evolutionary ages of all human genes and then studied the probability of mutation and their biological function in relation to their age and genomic location for both normal germline and cancer contexts. We observed that under a model of uniform random mutation across the genome, controlled for gene size, genes less than 500 MY were more frequently mutated in both cases. Paradoxically, causal genes, defined in the COSMIC Cancer Gene Census, were depleted in this age group. When we used functional enrichment analysis to explain this unexpected result we discovered that COSMIC genes with recessive disease phenotypes were enriched for DNA repair and cell cycle control. The non-mutated genes in these pathways are orthologous to those underlying stress-induced mutation in bacteria, which results in the clustering of single nucleotide variations. COSMIC genes were less common in regions where the probability of observing mutational clusters is high, although they are approximately 2-fold more likely to harbor mutational clusters compared to other human genes. Our results suggest this ancient mutational response to stress that evolved among prokaryotes was co-opted to maintain diversity in the germline and immune system, while the original phenotype is restored in cancer. Reversion to a stress-induced mutational response is a hallmark of cancer that allows for effectively searching "protected" genome space where genes causally implicated in cancer are located and underlies the high adaptive potential and concomitant therapeutic resistance that is characteristic of cancer.

The Case for a Gaian Bottleneck: The Biology of Habitability.

The prerequisites and ingredients for life seem to be abundantly available in the Universe. However, the Universe does not seem to be teeming with life. The most common explanation for this is a low probability for the emergence of life (an emergence bottleneck), notionally due to the intricacies of the molecular recipe. Here, we present an alternative Gaian bottleneck explanation: If life emerges on a planet, it only rarely evolves quickly enough to regulate greenhouse gases and albedo, thereby maintaining surface temperatures compatible with liquid water and habitability. Such a Gaian bottleneck suggests that (i) extinction is the cosmic default for most life that has ever emerged on the surfaces of wet rocky planets in the Universe and (ii) rocky planets need to be inhabited to remain habitable. In the Gaian bottleneck model, the maintenance of planetary habitability is a property more associated with an unusually rapid evolution of biological regulation of surface volatiles than with the luminosity and distance to the host star.

Targeting cancer's weaknesses (not its strengths): Therapeutic strategies suggested by the atavistic model.

In the atavistic model of cancer progression, tumor cell dedifferentiation is interpreted as a reversion to phylogenetically earlier capabilities. The more recently evolved capabilities are compromised first during cancer progression. This suggests a therapeutic strategy for targeting cancer: design challenges to cancer that can only be met by the recently evolved capabilities no longer functional in cancer cells. We describe several examples of this target-the-weakness strategy. Our most detailed example involves the immune system. The absence of adaptive immunity in immunosuppressed tumor environments is an irreversible weakness of cancer that can be exploited by creating a challenge that only the presence of adaptive immunity can meet. This leaves tumor cells more vulnerable than healthy tissue to pathogenic attack. Such a target-the-weakness therapeutic strategy has broad applications, and contrasts with current therapies that target the main strength of cancer: cell proliferation.

An extensive phase space for the potential martian biosphere.

We present a comprehensive model of martian pressure-temperature (P-T) phase space and compare it with that of Earth. Martian P-T conditions compatible with liquid water extend to a depth of ∼310 km. We use our phase space model of Mars and of terrestrial life to estimate the depths and extent of the water on Mars that is habitable for terrestrial life. We find an extensive overlap between inhabited terrestrial phase space and martian phase space. The lower martian surface temperatures and shallower martian geotherm suggest that, if there is a hot deep biosphere on Mars, it could extend 7 times deeper than the ∼5 km depth of the hot deep terrestrial biosphere in the crust inhabited by hyperthermophilic chemolithotrophs. This corresponds to ∼3.2% of the volume of present-day Mars being potentially habitable for terrestrial-like life.

To what extent does terrestrial life "follow the water"?

Terrestrial life is known to require liquid water, but not all terrestrial water is inhabited. Thus, liquid water is a necessary, but not sufficient, condition for life. To quantify the terrestrial limits on the habitability of water and help identify the factors that make some terrestrial water uninhabited, we present empirical pressure-temperature (P-T) phase diagrams of water, Earth, and terrestrial life. Eighty-eight percent of the volume of Earth where liquid water exists is not known to host life. This potentially uninhabited terrestrial liquid water includes (i) hot and deep regions of Earth where some combination of high temperature (T > 122 degrees C) and restrictions on pore space, nutrients, and energy is the limiting factor and (ii) cold and near-surface regions of Earth, such as brine inclusions and thin films in ice and permafrost (depths less than approximately 1 km), where low temperatures (T < -40 degrees C), low water activity (a(w) < 0.6), or both are the limiting factors. If the known limits of terrestrial life do not change significantly, these limits represent important constraints on our biosphere and, potentially, on others, since approximately 4 billion years of evolution have not allowed life to adapt to a large fraction of the volume of Earth where liquid water exists.

Signatures of a shadow biosphere.

Astrobiologists are aware that extraterrestrial life might differ from known life, and considerable thought has been given to possible signatures associated with weird forms of life on other planets. So far, however, very little attention has been paid to the possibility that our own planet might also host communities of weird life. If life arises readily in Earth-like conditions, as many astrobiologists contend, then it may well have formed many times on Earth itself, which raises the question whether one or more shadow biospheres have existed in the past or still exist today. In this paper, we discuss possible signatures of weird life and outline some simple strategies for seeking evidence of a shadow biosphere.

Finding a second sample of life on earth.

If life emerges readily under Earth-like conditions, the possibility arises of multiple terrestrial genesis events. We seek to quantify the probability of this scenario using estimates of the Archean bombardment rate and the fact that life established itself fairly rapidly on Earth once conditions became favorable. We find a significant likelihood that at least one more sample of life, referred to here as alien life, may have emerged on Earth, and could have coexisted with known life. Indeed, it is difficult to rule out the possibility of extant alien life. We offer some suggestions for how an alternative sample of life might be detected.

The galactic habitable zone and the age distribution of complex life in the Milky Way.

We modeled the evolution of the Milky Way Galaxy to trace the distribution in space and time of four prerequisites for complex life: the presence of a host star, enough heavy elements to form terrestrial planets, sufficient time for biological evolution, and an environment free of life-extinguishing supernovae. We identified the Galactic habitable zone (GHZ) as an annular region between 7 and 9 kiloparsecs from the Galactic center that widens with time and is composed of stars that formed between 8 and 4 billion years ago. This GHZ yields an age distribution for the complex life that may inhabit our Galaxy. We found that 75% of the stars in the GHZ are older than the Sun.

Does the rapid appearance of life on Earth suggest that life is common in the universe?

It is sometimes assumed that the rapidity of biogenesis on Earth suggests that life is common in the Universe. Here we critically examine the assumptions inherent in this if-life-evolved-rapidly-life-must-be-common argument. We use the observational constraints on the rapidity of biogenesis on Earth to infer the probability of biogenesis on terrestrial planets with the same unknown probability of biogenesis as the Earth. We find that on such planets, older than approximately 1 Gyr, the probability of biogenesis is > 13% at the 95% confidence level. This quantifies an important term in the Drake Equation but does not necessarily mean that life is common in the Universe.

The observational case for Jupiter being a typical massive planet.

We identify a subsample of the recently detected extrasolar planets that is minimally affected by the selection effects of the Doppler detection method. With a simple analysis we quantify trends in the surface density of this subsample in the period-Msin(i) plane. A modest extrapolation of these trends puts Jupiter in the most densely occupied region of this parameter space, thus indicating that Jupiter is a typical massive planet rather than an outlier. Our analysis suggests that Jupiter is more typical than indicated by previous analyses. For example, instead of MJup mass exoplanets being twice as common as 2 MJup exoplanets, we find they are three times as common.