Intensive longitudinal assessment following index trauma to predict development of PTSD using machine learning.

There are significant challenges to identifying which individuals require intervention following exposure to trauma, and a need for strategies to identify and provide individuals at risk for developing PTSD with timely interventions. The present study seeks to identify a minimal set of trauma-related symptoms, assessed during the weeks following traumatic exposure, that can accurately predict PTSD. Participants were 2185 adults (Mean age=36.4 years; 64% women; 50% Black) presenting for emergency care following traumatic exposure. Participants received a 'flash survey' with 6-8 varying symptoms (from a pool of 26 trauma symptoms) several times per week for eight weeks following the trauma exposure (each symptom assessed ∼6 times). Features (mean, sd, last, worst, peak-end scores) from the repeatedly assessed symptoms were included as candidate variables in a CART machine learning analysis to develop a pragmatic predictive algorithm. PTSD (PCL-5 ≥38) was present for 669 (31%) participants at the 8-week follow-up. A classification tree with three splits, based on mean scores of nervousness, rehashing, and fatigue, predicted PTSD with an Area Under the Curve of 0.836. Findings suggest feasibility for a 3-item assessment protocol, delivered once per week, following traumatic exposure to assess and potentially facilitate follow-up care for those at risk.

Sex differences in response inhibition-related neural predictors of PTSD in recent trauma-exposed civilians.

BACKGROUND: Females are more likely to develop posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) than males. Impaired inhibition has been identified as mechanism for PTSD development, but studies on the potential sex differences of this neurobiological mechanism and how it relates to PTSD severity and progression are sparse. Here we examined sex differences in neural activation during response inhibition and PTSD following recent trauma. METHODS: Participants (N= 205, 138 female sex assigned at birth) were recruited from emergency departments within 72 hours of a traumatic event. PTSD symptoms were assessed 2-weeks and 6-months post-trauma. A Go/NoGo task was performed 2-weeks post-trauma in a 3T MRI scanner to measure neural activity during response inhibition in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC), right inferior frontal gyrus (rIFG), and the bilateral hippocampus. General Linear models were used to examine the interaction effect of sex on the relationship between our regions of interest (ROIs) and the whole brain, and PTSD symptoms at 6-months, and symptom progression between 2-weeks and 6-months. RESULTS: Lower response-inhibition-related vmPFC activation 2-weeks post-trauma predicted more PTSD symptoms at 6-months in females but not in males, while greater response-inhibition-related rIFG activation predicted lower PTSD symptom progression in males but not females. Whole brain interaction effects were observed in the medial temporal gyrus and left precentral gyrus. CONCLUSIONS: There are sex differences in the relationship between inhibition-related brain activation and PTSD symptom severity and progression. These findings suggest that sex differences should be assessed in future PTSD studies and reveal potential targets for sex-specific interventions.

Post-traumatic stress and future substance use outcomes: leveraging antecedent factors to stratify risk.

Background: Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and substance use (tobacco, alcohol, and cannabis) are highly comorbid. Many factors affect this relationship, including sociodemographic and psychosocial characteristics, other prior traumas, and physical health. However, few prior studies have investigated this prospectively, examining new substance use and the extent to which a wide range of factors may modify the relationship to PTSD. Methods: The Advancing Understanding of RecOvery afteR traumA (AURORA) study is a prospective cohort of adults presenting at emergency departments (N = 2,943). Participants self-reported PTSD symptoms and the frequency and quantity of tobacco, alcohol, and cannabis use at six total timepoints. We assessed the associations of PTSD and future substance use, lagged by one timepoint, using the Poisson generalized estimating equations. We also stratified by incident and prevalent substance use and generated causal forests to identify the most important effect modifiers of this relationship out of 128 potential variables. Results: At baseline, 37.3% (N = 1,099) of participants reported likely PTSD. PTSD was associated with tobacco frequency (incidence rate ratio (IRR): 1.003, 95% CI: 1.00, 1.01, p = 0.02) and quantity (IRR: 1.01, 95% CI: 1.001, 1.01, p = 0.01), and alcohol frequency (IRR: 1.002, 95% CI: 1.00, 1.004, p = 0.03) and quantity (IRR: 1.003, 95% CI: 1.001, 1.01, p = 0.001), but not with cannabis use. There were slight differences in incident compared to prevalent tobacco frequency and quantity of use; prevalent tobacco frequency and quantity were associated with PTSD symptoms, while incident tobacco frequency and quantity were not. Using causal forests, lifetime worst use of cigarettes, overall self-rated physical health, and prior childhood trauma were major moderators of the relationship between PTSD symptoms and the three substances investigated. Conclusion: PTSD symptoms were highly associated with tobacco and alcohol use, while the association with prospective cannabis use is not clear. Findings suggest that understanding the different risk stratification that occurs can aid in tailoring interventions to populations at greatest risk to best mitigate the comorbidity between PTSD symptoms and future substance use outcomes. We demonstrate that this is particularly salient for tobacco use and, to some extent, alcohol use, while cannabis is less likely to be impacted by PTSD symptoms across the strata.

Associations of alcohol and cannabis use with change in posttraumatic stress disorder and depression symptoms over time in recently trauma-exposed individuals.

BACKGROUND: Several hypotheses may explain the association between substance use, posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and depression. However, few studies have utilized a large multisite dataset to understand this complex relationship. Our study assessed the relationship between alcohol and cannabis use trajectories and PTSD and depression symptoms across 3 months in recently trauma-exposed civilians. METHODS: In total, 1618 (1037 female) participants provided self-report data on past 30-day alcohol and cannabis use and PTSD and depression symptoms during their emergency department (baseline) visit. We reassessed participant's substance use and clinical symptoms 2, 8, and 12 weeks posttrauma. Latent class mixture modeling determined alcohol and cannabis use trajectories in the sample. Changes in PTSD and depression symptoms were assessed across alcohol and cannabis use trajectories via a mixed-model repeated-measures analysis of variance. RESULTS: Three trajectory classes (low, high, increasing use) provided the best model fit for alcohol and cannabis use. The low alcohol use class exhibited lower PTSD symptoms at baseline than the high use class; the low cannabis use class exhibited lower PTSD and depression symptoms at baseline than the high and increasing use classes; these symptoms greatly increased at week 8 and declined at week 12. Participants who already use alcohol and cannabis exhibited greater PTSD and depression symptoms at baseline that increased at week 8 with a decrease in symptoms at week 12. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that alcohol and cannabis use trajectories are associated with the intensity of posttrauma psychopathology. These findings could potentially inform the timing of therapeutic strategies.

Interleukin-10-producing monocytes contribute to sex differences in pain resolution in mice and humans.

Pain is closely associated with the immune system, which exhibits sexual dimorphism. For these reasons, neuro-immune interactions are suggested to drive sex differences in pain pathophysiology. However, our understanding of peripheral neuro-immune interactions on sex differences in pain resolution remains limited. Here, we have shown, in both a mouse model of inflammatory pain and in humans following traumatic pain, that males had higher levels of interleukin (IL)-10 than females, which were correlated with faster pain resolution. Following injury, we identified monocytes (CD11b+ Ly6C+ Ly6G-F4/80 mid ) as the primary source of IL-10, with IL-10-producing monocytes being more abundant in males than females. In a mouse model, neutralizing IL-10 signaling through antibodies, genetically ablating IL-10R1 in sensory neurons, or depleting monocytes with clodronate all impaired the resolution of pain hypersensitivity in both sexes. Furthermore, manipulating androgen levels in mice reversed the sexual dimorphism of pain resolution and the levels of IL-10-producing monocytes. These results highlight a novel role for androgen-driven peripheral IL-10-producing monocytes in the sexual dimorphism of pain resolution. These findings add to the growing concept that immune cells play a critical role in resolving pain and preventing the transition into chronic pain.

Association between microbiome and the development of adverse posttraumatic neuropsychiatric sequelae after traumatic stress exposure.

Patients exposed to trauma often experience high rates of adverse post-traumatic neuropsychiatric sequelae (APNS). The biological mechanisms promoting APNS are currently unknown, but the microbiota-gut-brain axis offers an avenue to understanding mechanisms as well as possibilities for intervention. Microbiome composition after trauma exposure has been poorly examined regarding neuropsychiatric outcomes. We aimed to determine whether the gut microbiomes of trauma-exposed emergency department patients who develop APNS have dysfunctional gut microbiome profiles and discover potential associated mechanisms. We performed metagenomic analysis on stool samples (n = 51) from a subset of adults enrolled in the Advancing Understanding of RecOvery afteR traumA (AURORA) study. Two-, eight- and twelve-week post-trauma outcomes for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) (PTSD checklist for DSM-5), normalized depression scores (PROMIS Depression Short Form 8b) and somatic symptom counts were collected. Generalized linear models were created for each outcome using microbial abundances and relevant demographics. Mixed-effect random forest machine learning models were used to identify associations between APNS outcomes and microbial features and encoded metabolic pathways from stool metagenomics. Microbial species, including Flavonifractor plautii, Ruminococcus gnavus and, Bifidobacterium species, which are prevalent commensal gut microbes, were found to be important in predicting worse APNS outcomes from microbial abundance data. Notably, through APNS outcome modeling using microbial metabolic pathways, worse APNS outcomes were highly predicted by decreased L-arginine related pathway genes and increased citrulline and ornithine pathways. Common commensal microbial species are enriched in individuals who develop APNS. More notably, we identified a biological mechanism through which the gut microbiome reduces global arginine bioavailability, a metabolic change that has also been demonstrated in the plasma of patients with PTSD.

Prior Sexual Trauma Exposure Impacts Posttraumatic Dysfunction and Neural Circuitry Following a Recent Traumatic Event in the AURORA Study.

Background: Prior sexual trauma (ST) is associated with greater risk for posttraumatic stress disorder after a subsequent traumatic event; however, the underlying neurobiological mechanisms remain opaque. We investigated longitudinal posttraumatic dysfunction and amygdala functional dynamics following admission to an emergency department for new primarily nonsexual trauma in participants with and without previous ST. Methods: Participants (N = 2178) were recruited following acute trauma exposure (primarily motor vehicle collision). A subset (n = 242) completed magnetic resonance imaging that included a fearful faces task and a resting-state scan 2 weeks after the trauma. We investigated associations between prior ST and several dimensions of posttraumatic symptoms over 6 months. We further assessed amygdala activation and connectivity differences between groups with or without prior ST. Results: Prior ST was associated with greater posttraumatic depression (F1,1120 = 28.35, p = 1.22 × 10-7, ηp2 = 0.06), anxiety (F1,1113 = 17.43, p = 3.21 × 10-5, ηp2 = 0.05), and posttraumatic stress disorder (F1,1027 = 11.34, p = 7.85 × 10-4, ηp2 = 0.04) severity and more maladaptive beliefs about pain (F1,1113 = 8.51, p = .004, ηp2 = 0.02) but was not related to amygdala reactivity to fearful versus neutral faces (all ps > .05). A secondary analysis revealed an interaction between ST and lifetime trauma load on the left amygdala to visual cortex connectivity (peak Z value: -4.41, corrected p < .02). Conclusions: Findings suggest that prior ST is associated with heightened posttraumatic dysfunction following a new trauma exposure but not increased amygdala activity. In addition, ST may interact with lifetime trauma load to alter neural circuitry in visual processing regions following acute trauma exposure. Further research should probe the relationship between trauma type and visual circuitry in the acute aftermath of trauma.

Neighborhood Disadvantage and Neural Correlates of Threat and Reward Processing in Survivors of Recent Trauma.

Importance: Differences in neighborhood socioeconomic characteristics are important considerations in understanding differences in risk vs resilience in mental health. Neighborhood disadvantage is associated with alterations in the function and structure of threat neurocircuitry. Objective: To investigate associations of neighborhood disadvantage with white and gray matter and neural reactivity to positive and negative stimuli in the context of trauma exposure. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this cross-sectional study, survivors of trauma who completed sociodemographic and posttraumatic symptom assessments and neuroimaging were recruited as part of the Advancing Understanding of Recovery After Trauma (AURORA) study between September 2017 and June 2021. Data analysis was performed from October 25, 2022, to February 15, 2023. Exposure: Neighborhood disadvantage was measured with the Area Deprivation Index (ADI) for each participant home address. Main Outcomes and Measures: Participants completed separate threat and reward tasks during functional magnetic resonance imaging. Diffusion-weighted and high-resolution structural images were also collected. Linear models assessed the association of ADI with reactivity, microstructure, and macrostructure of a priori regions of interest after adjusting for income, lifetime trauma, sex at birth, and age. A moderated-mediation model tested whether ADI was associated with neural activity via microstructural changes and if this was modulated by PTSD symptoms. Results: A total of 280 participants (183 females [65.4%]; mean [SD] age, 35.39 [13.29] years) completed the threat task and 244 participants (156 females [63.9%]; mean [SD] age, 35.10 [13.26] years) completed the reward task. Higher ADI (per 1-unit increase) was associated with greater insula (t274 = 3.20; ß = 0.20; corrected P = .008) and anterior cingulate cortex (ACC; t274 = 2.56; ß = 0.16; corrected P = .04) threat-related activity after considering covariates, but ADI was not associated with reward reactivity. Greater disadvantage was also associated with altered microstructure of the cingulum bundle (t274 = 3.48; ß = 0.21; corrected P = .001) and gray matter morphology of the ACC (cortical thickness: t273 = -2.29; ß = -0.13; corrected P = .02; surface area: t273 = 2.53; ß = 0.13; corrected P = .02). The moderated-mediation model revealed that ADI was associated with ACC threat reactivity via cingulum microstructural changes (index of moderated mediation = -0.02). However, this mediation was only present in individuals with greater PTSD symptom severity (at the mean: ß = -0.17; standard error = 0.06, t= -2.28; P = .007; at 1 SD above the mean: ß = -0.28; standard error = 0.08; t = -3.35; P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, neighborhood disadvantage was associated with neurobiology that supports threat processing, revealing associations of neighborhood disadvantage with neural susceptibility for PTSD and suggesting how altered structure-function associations may complicate symptoms. Future work should investigate specific components of neighborhood disadvantage that may be associated with these outcomes.

Internal capsule microstructure mediates the relationship between childhood maltreatment and PTSD following adulthood trauma exposure.

Childhood trauma is a known risk factor for trauma and stress-related disorders in adulthood. However, limited research has investigated the impact of childhood trauma on brain structure linked to later posttraumatic dysfunction. We investigated the effect of childhood trauma on white matter microstructure after recent trauma and its relationship with future posttraumatic dysfunction among trauma-exposed adult participants (n = 202) recruited from emergency departments as part of the AURORA Study. Participants completed self-report scales assessing prior childhood maltreatment within 2-weeks in addition to assessments of PTSD, depression, anxiety, and dissociation symptoms within 6-months of their traumatic event. Fractional anisotropy (FA) obtained from diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) collected at 2-weeks and 6-months was used to index white matter microstructure. Childhood maltreatment load predicted 6-month PTSD symptoms (b = 1.75, SE = 0.78, 95% CI = [0.20, 3.29]) and inversely varied with FA in the bilateral internal capsule (IC) at 2-weeks (p = 0.0294, FDR corrected) and 6-months (p = 0.0238, FDR corrected). We observed a significant indirect effect of childhood maltreatment load on 6-month PTSD symptoms through 2-week IC microstructure (b = 0.37, Boot SE = 0.18, 95% CI = [0.05, 0.76]) that fully mediated the effect of childhood maltreatment load on PCL-5 scores (b = 1.37, SE = 0.79, 95% CI = [-0.18, 2.93]). IC microstructure did not mediate relationships between childhood maltreatment and depressive, anxiety, or dissociative symptomatology. Our findings suggest a unique role for IC microstructure as a stable neural pathway between childhood trauma and future PTSD symptoms following recent trauma. Notably, our work did not support roles of white matter tracts previously found to vary with PTSD symptoms and childhood trauma exposure, including the cingulum bundle, uncinate fasciculus, and corpus callosum. Given the IC contains sensory fibers linked to perception and motor control, childhood maltreatment might impact the neural circuits that relay and process threat-related inputs and responses to trauma.

Epigenetic aging and PTSD outcomes in the immediate aftermath of trauma.

BACKGROUND: Psychological trauma exposure and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) have been associated with advanced epigenetic age. However, whether epigenetic aging measured at the time of trauma predicts the subsequent development of PTSD outcomes is unknown. Moreover, the neural substrates underlying posttraumatic outcomes associated with epigenetic aging are unclear. METHODS: We examined a multi-ancestry cohort of women and men (n = 289) who presented to the emergency department (ED) after trauma. Blood DNA was collected at ED presentation, and EPIC DNA methylation arrays were used to assess four widely used metrics of epigenetic aging (HorvathAge, HannumAge, PhenoAge, and GrimAge). PTSD symptoms were evaluated longitudinally at the time of ED presentation and over the ensuing 6 months. Structural and functional neuroimaging was performed 2 weeks after trauma. RESULTS: After covariate adjustment and correction for multiple comparisons, advanced ED GrimAge predicted increased risk for 6-month probable PTSD diagnosis. Secondary analyses suggested that the prediction of PTSD by GrimAge was driven by worse trajectories for intrusive memories and nightmares. Advanced ED GrimAge was also associated with reduced volume of the whole amygdala and specific amygdala subregions, including the cortico-amygdaloid transition and the cortical and accessory basal nuclei. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings shed new light on the relation between biological aging and trauma-related phenotypes, suggesting that GrimAge measured at the time of trauma predicts PTSD trajectories and is associated with relevant brain alterations. Furthering these findings has the potential to enhance early prevention and treatment of posttraumatic psychiatric sequelae.

CpG Methylation Levels in HPA Axis Genes Predict Chronic Pain Outcomes Following Trauma Exposure.

Chronic post-traumatic musculoskeletal pain (CPTP) is a common outcome of traumatic stress exposure. Biological factors that influence the development of CPTP are poorly understood, though current evidence indicates that the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis plays a critical role in its development. Little is known about molecular mechanisms underlying this association, including epigenetic mechanisms. Here, we assessed whether peritraumatic DNA methylation levels at 248 5'-C-phosphate-G-3' (CpG) sites in HPA axis genes (FKBP5, NR3C1, CRH, CRHR1, CRHR2, CRHBP, POMC) predict CPTP and whether identified CPTP-associated methylation levels influence expression of those genes. Using participant samples and data collected from trauma survivors enrolled into longitudinal cohort studies (n = 290), we used linear mixed modeling to assess the relationship between peritraumatic blood-based CpG methylation levels and CPTP. A total of 66 (27%) of the 248 CpG sites assessed in these models statistically significantly predicted CPTP, with the three most significantly associated CpG sites originating from the POMC gene region (ie, cg22900229 [ß = .124, P < .001], cg16302441 [ß = .443, P < .001], cg01926269 [ß = .130, P < .001]). Among the genes analyzed, both POMC (z = 2.36, P = .018) and CRHBP (z = 4.89, P < .001) were enriched in CpG sites significantly associated with CPTP. Further, POMC expression was inversely correlated with methylation levels in a CPTP-dependent manner (6-months NRS<4: r = -.59, P < .001; 6-months NRS ≥ 4: r = -.18, P = .2312). Our results suggest that methylation of HPA axis genes including POMC and CRHBP predict risk for and may contribute to vulnerability to CPTP. PERSPECTIVE: Peritraumatic blood levels of CpG methylation sites in HPA axis genes, particularly CpG sites in the POMC gene, predict CPTP development. This data substantially advances our understanding of epigenetic predictors and potential mediators of CPTP, a highly common, morbid, and hard-to-treat form of chronic pain.

Structural inequities contribute to racial/ethnic differences in neurophysiological tone, but not threat reactivity, after trauma exposure.

Considerable racial/ethnic disparities persist in exposure to life stressors and socioeconomic resources that can directly affect threat neurocircuitry, particularly the amygdala, that partially mediates susceptibility to adverse posttraumatic outcomes. Limited work to date, however, has investigated potential racial/ethnic variability in amygdala reactivity or connectivity that may in turn be related to outcomes such as post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Participants from the AURORA study (n = 283), a multisite longitudinal study of trauma outcomes, completed functional magnetic resonance imaging and psychophysiology within approximately two-weeks of trauma exposure. Seed-based amygdala connectivity and amygdala reactivity during passive viewing of fearful and neutral faces were assessed during fMRI. Physiological activity was assessed during Pavlovian threat conditioning. Participants also reported the severity of posttraumatic symptoms 3 and 6 months after trauma. Black individuals showed lower baseline skin conductance levels and startle compared to White individuals, but no differences were observed in physiological reactions to threat. Further, Hispanic and Black participants showed greater amygdala connectivity to regions including the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (PFC), dorsal anterior cingulate cortex, insula, and cerebellum compared to White participants. No differences were observed in amygdala reactivity to threat. Amygdala connectivity was associated with 3-month PTSD symptoms, but the associations differed by racial/ethnic group and were partly driven by group differences in structural inequities. The present findings suggest variability in tonic neurophysiological arousal in the early aftermath of trauma between racial/ethnic groups, driven by structural inequality, impacts neural processes that mediate susceptibility to later PTSD symptoms.

Utility of Wrist-Wearable Data for Assessing Pain, Sleep, and Anxiety Outcomes After Traumatic Stress Exposure.

Importance: Adverse posttraumatic neuropsychiatric sequelae after traumatic stress exposure are common and have higher incidence among socioeconomically disadvantaged populations. Pain, depression, avoidance of trauma reminders, reexperiencing trauma, anxiety, hyperarousal, sleep disruption, and nightmares have been reported. Wrist-wearable devices with accelerometers capable of assessing 24-hour rest-activity characteristics are prevalent and may have utility in measuring these outcomes. Objective: To evaluate whether wrist-wearable devices can provide useful biomarkers for recovery after traumatic stress exposure. Design, Setting, and Participants: Data were analyzed from a diverse cohort of individuals seen in the emergency department after experiencing a traumatic stress exposure, as part of the Advancing Understanding of Recovery After Trauma (AURORA) study. Participants recruited from 27 emergency departments wore wrist-wearable devices for 8 weeks, beginning in the emergency department, and completed serial assessments of neuropsychiatric symptoms. A total of 19 019 patients were screened. Of these, 3040 patients met study criteria, provided informed consent, and completed baseline assessments. A total of 2021 provided data from wrist-wearable devices, completed the 8-week assessment, and were included in this analysis. The data were randomly divided into 2 equal parts (n = 1010) for biomarker identification and validation. Data were collected from September 2017 to January 2020, and data were analyzed from May 2020 to November 2022. Exposures: Participants were recruited for the study after experiencing a traumatic stress exposure (most commonly motor vehicle collision). Main Outcomes and Measures: Rest-activity characteristics were derived and validated from wrist-wearable devices associated with specific self-reported symptom domains at a point in time and changes in symptom severity over time. Results: Of 2021 included patients, 1257 (62.2%) were female, and the mean (SD) age was 35.8 (13.0) years. Eight wrist-wearable device biomarkers for symptoms of adverse posttraumatic neuropsychiatric sequelae exceeded significance thresholds in the derivation cohort. One of these, reduced 24-hour activity variance, was associated with greater pain severity (r = -0.14; 95% CI, -0.20 to -0.07). Changes in 6 rest-activity measures were associated with changes in pain over time, and changes in the number of transitions between sleep and wake over time were associated with changes in pain, sleep, and anxiety. Simple cutoffs for these biomarkers identified individuals with good recovery for pain (positive predictive value [PPV], 0.85; 95% CI, 0.82-0.88), sleep (PPV, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.59-0.67, and anxiety (PPV, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.72-0.80) with high predictive value. Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that wrist-wearable device biomarkers may have utility as screening tools for pain, sleep, and anxiety symptom outcomes after trauma exposure in high-risk populations.

Use of serial smartphone-based assessments to characterize diverse neuropsychiatric symptom trajectories in a large trauma survivor cohort.

The authors sought to characterize adverse posttraumatic neuropsychiatric sequelae (APNS) symptom trajectories across ten symptom domains (pain, depression, sleep, nightmares, avoidance, re-experiencing, anxiety, hyperarousal, somatic, and mental/fatigue symptoms) in a large, diverse, understudied sample of motor vehicle collision (MVC) survivors. More than two thousand MVC survivors were enrolled in the emergency department (ED) and completed a rotating battery of brief smartphone-based surveys over a 2-month period. Measurement models developed from survey item responses were used in latent growth curve/mixture modeling to characterize homogeneous symptom trajectories. Associations between individual trajectories and pre-trauma and peritraumatic characteristics and traditional outcomes were compared, along with associations within and between trajectories. APNS across all ten symptom domains were common in the first two months after trauma. Many risk factors and associations with high symptom burden trajectories were shared across domains. Both across and within traditional diagnostic boundaries, APNS trajectory intercepts, and slopes were substantially correlated. Across all domains, symptom severity in the immediate aftermath of trauma (trajectory intercepts) had the greatest influence on the outcome. An interactive data visualization tool was developed to allow readers to explore relationships of interest between individual characteristics, symptom trajectories, and traditional outcomes ( http://itr.med.unc.edu/aurora/parcoord/ ). Individuals presenting to the ED after MVC commonly experience a broad constellation of adverse posttraumatic symptoms. Many risk factors for diverse APNS are shared. Individuals diagnosed with a single traditional outcome should be screened for others. The utility of multidimensional categorizations that characterize individuals across traditional diagnostic domains should be explored.

Derivation and Validation of a Brief Emergency Department-Based Prediction Tool for Posttraumatic Stress After Motor Vehicle Collision.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To derive and initially validate a brief bedside clinical decision support tool that identifies emergency department (ED) patients at high risk of substantial, persistent posttraumatic stress symptoms after a motor vehicle collision. METHODS: Derivation (n=1,282, 19 ED sites) and validation (n=282, 11 separate ED sites) data were obtained from adults prospectively enrolled in the Advancing Understanding of RecOvery afteR traumA study who were discharged from the ED after motor vehicle collision-related trauma. The primary outcome was substantial posttraumatic stress symptoms at 3 months (Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Checklist for Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders-5 ≥38). Logistic regression derivation models were evaluated for discriminative ability using the area under the curve and the accuracy of predicted risk probabilities (Brier score). Candidate posttraumatic stress predictors assessed in these models (n=265) spanned a range of sociodemographic, baseline health, peritraumatic, and mechanistic domains. The final model selection was based on performance and ease of administration. RESULTS: Significant 3-month posttraumatic stress symptoms were common in the derivation (27%) and validation (26%) cohort. The area under the curve and Brier score of the final 8-question tool were 0.82 and 0.14 in the derivation cohort and 0.76 and 0.17 in the validation cohort. CONCLUSION: This simple 8-question tool demonstrates promise to risk-stratify individuals with substantial posttraumatic stress symptoms who are discharged to home after a motor vehicle collision. Both external validation of this instrument, and work to further develop more accurate tools, are needed. Such tools might benefit public health by enabling the conduct of preventive intervention trials and assisting the growing number of EDs that provide services to trauma survivors aimed at promoting psychological recovery.

Derivation and validation of risk prediction for posttraumatic stress symptoms following trauma exposure.

BACKGROUND: Posttraumatic stress symptoms (PTSS) are common following traumatic stress exposure (TSE). Identification of individuals with PTSS risk in the early aftermath of TSE is important to enable targeted administration of preventive interventions. In this study, we used baseline survey data from two prospective cohort studies to identify the most influential predictors of substantial PTSS. METHODS: Self-identifying black and white American women and men (n = 1546) presenting to one of 16 emergency departments (EDs) within 24 h of motor vehicle collision (MVC) TSE were enrolled. Individuals with substantial PTSS (⩾33, Impact of Events Scale - Revised) 6 months after MVC were identified via follow-up questionnaire. Sociodemographic, pain, general health, event, and psychological/cognitive characteristics were collected in the ED and used in prediction modeling. Ensemble learning methods and Monte Carlo cross-validation were used for feature selection and to determine prediction accuracy. External validation was performed on a hold-out sample (30% of total sample). RESULTS: Twenty-five percent (n = 394) of individuals reported PTSS 6 months following MVC. Regularized linear regression was the top performing learning method. The top 30 factors together showed good reliability in predicting PTSS in the external sample (Area under the curve = 0.79 ± 0.002). Top predictors included acute pain severity, recovery expectations, socioeconomic status, self-reported race, and psychological symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: These analyses add to a growing literature indicating that influential predictors of PTSS can be identified and risk for future PTSS estimated from characteristics easily available/assessable at the time of ED presentation following TSE.

Anxiety sensitivity as a transdiagnostic risk factor for trajectories of adverse posttraumatic neuropsychiatric sequelae in the AURORA study.

Anxiety sensitivity, or fear of anxious arousal, is cross-sectionally associated with a wide array of adverse posttraumatic neuropsychiatric sequelae, including symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder, depression, anxiety, sleep disturbance, pain, and somatization. The current study utilizes a large-scale, multi-site, prospective study of trauma survivors presenting to emergency departments. Hypotheses tested whether elevated anxiety sensitivity in the immediate posttrauma period is associated with more severe and persistent trajectories of common adverse posttraumatic neuropsychiatric sequelae in the eight weeks posttrauma. Participants from the AURORA study (n = 2,269 recruited from 23 emergency departments) completed self-report assessments over eight weeks posttrauma. Associations between heightened anxiety sensitivity and more severe and/or persistent trajectories of trauma-related symptoms identified by growth mixture modeling were analyzed. Anxiety sensitivity assessed two weeks posttrauma was associated with severe and/or persistent posttraumatic stress, depression, anxiety, sleep disturbance, pain, and somatic symptoms in the eight weeks posttrauma. Effect sizes were in the small to medium range in multivariate models accounting for various demographic, trauma-related, pre-trauma mental health-related, and personality-related factors. Anxiety sensitivity may be a useful transdiagnostic risk factor in the immediate posttraumatic period identifying individuals at risk for the development of adverse posttraumatic neuropsychiatric sequelae. Further, considering anxiety sensitivity is malleable via brief intervention, it could be a useful secondary prevention target. Future research should continue to evaluate associations between anxiety sensitivity and trauma-related pathology.

Rare copy number variation in posttraumatic stress disorder.

Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is a heritable (h2 = 24-71%) psychiatric illness. Copy number variation (CNV) is a form of rare genetic variation that has been implicated in the etiology of psychiatric disorders, but no large-scale investigation of CNV in PTSD has been performed. We present an association study of CNV burden and PTSD symptoms in a sample of 114,383 participants (13,036 cases and 101,347 controls) of European ancestry. CNVs were called using two calling algorithms and intersected to a consensus set. Quality control was performed to remove strong outlier samples. CNVs were examined for association with PTSD within each cohort using linear or logistic regression analysis adjusted for population structure and CNV quality metrics, then inverse variance weighted meta-analyzed across cohorts. We examined the genome-wide total span of CNVs, enrichment of CNVs within specified gene-sets, and CNVs overlapping individual genes and implicated neurodevelopmental regions. The total distance covered by deletions crossing over known neurodevelopmental CNV regions was significant (beta = 0.029, SE = 0.005, P = 6.3 × 10-8). The genome-wide neurodevelopmental CNV burden identified explains 0.034% of the variation in PTSD symptoms. The 15q11.2 BP1-BP2 microdeletion region was significantly associated with PTSD (beta = 0.0206, SE = 0.0056, P = 0.0002). No individual significant genes interrupted by CNV were identified. 22 gene pathways related to the function of the nervous system and brain were significant in pathway analysis (FDR q < 0.05), but these associations were not significant once NDD regions were removed. A larger sample size, better detection methods, and annotated resources of CNV are needed to explore this relationship further.

Predicting at-risk opioid use three months after ed visit for trauma: Results from the AURORA study.

OBJECTIVE: Whether short-term, low-potency opioid prescriptions for acute pain lead to future at-risk opioid use remains controversial and inadequately characterized. Our objective was to measure the association between emergency department (ED) opioid analgesic exposure after a physical, trauma-related event and subsequent opioid use. We hypothesized ED opioid analgesic exposure is associated with subsequent at-risk opioid use. METHODS: Participants were enrolled in AURORA, a prospective cohort study of adult patients in 29 U.S., urban EDs receiving care for a traumatic event. Exclusion criteria were hospital admission, persons reporting any non-medical opioid use (e.g., opioids without prescription or taking more than prescribed for euphoria) in the 30 days before enrollment, and missing or incomplete data regarding opioid exposure or pain. We used multivariable logistic regression to assess the relationship between ED opioid exposure and at-risk opioid use, defined as any self-reported non-medical opioid use after initial ED encounter or prescription opioid use at 3-months. RESULTS: Of 1441 subjects completing 3-month follow-up, 872 participants were included for analysis. At-risk opioid use occurred within 3 months in 33/620 (5.3%, CI: 3.7,7.4) participants without ED opioid analgesic exposure; 4/16 (25.0%, CI: 8.3, 52.6) with ED opioid prescription only; 17/146 (11.6%, CI: 7.1, 18.3) with ED opioid administration only; 12/90 (13.3%, CI: 7.4, 22.5) with both. Controlling for clinical factors, adjusted odds ratios (aORs) for at-risk opioid use after ED opioid exposure were: ED prescription only: 4.9 (95% CI 1.4, 17.4); ED administration for analgesia only: 2.0 (CI 1.0, 3.8); both: 2.8 (CI 1.2, 6.5). CONCLUSIONS: ED opioids were associated with subsequent at-risk opioid use within three months in a geographically diverse cohort of adult trauma patients. This supports need for prospective studies focused on the long-term consequences of ED opioid analgesic exposure to estimate individual risk and guide therapeutic decision-making.