The Long-Term Impacts of an Integrated Care Programme on Hospital Utilisation among Older Adults in the South of England: A Synthetic Control Study.

Introduction: Reducing hospital use is often viewed as a possible positive consequence of introducing integrated care (IC). We investigated the impact of an IC programme in North East Hampshire and Farnham (NEHF), in southern England, on hospital utilisation among older adults over a 55 months period. Method: We used a Generalised Synthetic Control design to investigate the effect of implementing IC in NEHF between 2015 and 2020. For a range of hospital use outcomes, we estimated the trajectory that each would have followed in the absence of IC and compared it with the actual trajectory to estimate the potential impact of IC. Results: Three years into the programme, emergency admission rates started reducing in NEHF relative to its synthetic control, particularly those resulting in overnight hospital stays. By year 5 of the study overall emergency admission rates were 9.8% lower (95% confidence interval: -17.2% to -0.6%). We found no sustained difference in rates of emergency department (ED) visits, and average length of hospital stay was significantly higher from year 2. Conclusion: An IC programme in NEHF led to lower than estimated emergency admission rates; however, the interpretation of the impact of IC on admissions is complicated as lower rates did not appear until three years into the programme and the reliability of the synthetic control weakens over a long time horizon. There was no sustained change in ED visit rates.

Association between household context and emergency hospital use in older people: a retrospective cohort study on indicators for people living alone or living with somebody with frailty, developed from routine healthcare data in England.

OBJECTIVES: To derive two household context factors - living alone and living in a two-person household with a person who is frail - from routine administrative health data and to assess their association with emergency hospital use in people aged 65 or over. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study using national pseudonymised hospital data and pseudonymised address data derived from a minimised version of the Master Patient Index, a central database of all patient registrations in England. SETTING: England-wide. PARTICIPANTS: 4 876 285 people aged 65 years or older registered at GP practices in England on 16 December 2018 who were living alone or in a household of up to six people, and with at least one hospital admission in the last 3 years. OUTCOMES: Rates of accident and emergency (A&E) attendance and inpatient emergency admissions over a 1-year follow-up period. RESULTS: Older people living alone had higher rates of A&E attendances (adjusted rate ratio 1.09, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.10) and emergency admissions (1.14, 95% CI 1.14 to 1.15) than older people living in households of 2-6 people. Older people living with someone with frailty in a two-person household had higher rates of A&E attendance (adjusted rate ratio 1.09, 95% CI 1.08 to 1.10) and emergency admissions (1.10, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.11) than other older people living in a two-person household. CONCLUSIONS: We show that household context factors can be derived from linked routine administrative health data and that these are strongly associated with higher emergency hospital use in older people. Using household context factors can improve analyses, as well as support in the understanding of local population needs and in population health management.

Effect on secondary care of providing enhanced support to residential and nursing home residents: a subgroup analysis of a retrospective matched cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Thirteen residential care homes and 10 nursing homes specialising in older people in Rushcliffe, England, participated in an improvement programme. The enhanced support provided included regular visits from named general practitioners and additional training for care home staff. We assessed and compared the effect on hospital use for residents in residential and nursing homes, respectively. METHODS: Using linked care home and administrative hospital data, we examined people aged 65 years or over who moved to a participating care home between 2014 and 2016 (n=568). We selected matched control residents who had similar characteristics to the residents receiving enhanced support and moved to similar care homes not participating in the enhanced support (n=568). Differences in hospital use were assessed for residents of each type of care home using multivariable regression. RESULTS: Residents of participating residential care homes showed lower rates of potentially avoidable emergency admissions (rate ratio 0.50, 95% CI 0.30 to 0.82), emergency admissions (rate ratio 0.60, 95% CI 0.42 to 0.86) and Accident & Emergency attendances (0.57, 95% CI 0.40 to 0.81) than matched controls. Hospital bed days, outpatient attendances and the proportion of deaths that occurred out of hospital were not statistically different. For nursing home residents, there were no significant differences for any outcome. CONCLUSIONS: The enhanced support was associated with lower emergency hospital use for older people living in residential care homes but not for people living in nursing homes. This might be because there was more potential to reduce emergency care for people in residential care homes. In nursing homes, improvement programmes may need to be more tailored to residents' needs or the context of providing care in that setting.

Weekend admissions may be associated with poorer recording of long-term comorbidities: a prospective study of emergency admissions using administrative data.

BACKGROUND: Many studies have investigated the presence of a 'weekend effect' in mortality following hospital admission, and these frequently use diagnostic codes from administrative data for information on comorbidities for risk adjustment. However, it is possible that coding practice differs between week and weekend. We assess patients with a confirmed history of certain long-term health conditions and investigate how well these are recorded in subsequent week and weekend admissions. METHODS: We selected six long-term conditions that are commonly assessed when risk-adjusting mortality rates, via the Charlson and Elixhauser indices. Using Hospital Episode Statistics data from England for the period April 2009 to March 2011, we identified patients with the condition recorded at least twice, on separate emergency admissions. Then we assessed how often each condition was recorded on subsequent emergency admissions between April 2011 and March 2013. We then compared coding between week and weekend admissions using the Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel test, stratifying by hospital. RESULTS: We studied 111,457 patients with chronic pulmonary disease, 106,432 with diabetes, 36,447 with congestive heart failure, 30,996 with dementia, 7808 with hemiplegia or paraplegia and 5877 with metastatic cancer. Across the entire week, between April 2011 and March 2013, coding completeness ranged from 89% for diabetes to 43% for hemiplegia/paraplegia. Compared with weekday admissions, congestive heart failure was less likely to be recorded as a secondary diagnosis at the weekend (odds ratio 0.92, 95% CI, 0.88 to 0.97), with smaller but statistically significant differences also detected for chronic pulmonary disease (odds ratio 0.96, 95% CI, 0.93 to 0.99) and diabetes (odds ratio 0.95, 95% CI 0.91 to 0.99). There was no statistically significant difference in recording between week and weekend admissions for dementia (odds ratio 1.04, 95% CI 0.97 to 1.11), hemiplegia/paraplegia (odds ratio 0.99, 95% CI 0.89 to 1.10) or metastatic cancer (odds ratio 1.04, 95% CI 0.90 to 1.20). CONCLUSIONS: Long-term conditions are often not recorded on administrative data and the lack of recording may be worse for weekend admissions. Studies of the weekend effect that rely on administrative data might have underestimated the health burden of patients, particularly if admitted at the weekend.

Effect of Named, Accountable GPs on Continuity of Care: Protocol for a Regression Discontinuity Study of a National Policy Change.

INTRODUCTION: Increasing continuity of care has been identified as a strategy to improve patient outcomes, but previous studies of integrated care have tended to focus on pilot areas, which limit their generalisability and the ability to determine in which contexts integrated care was most successful. OBJECTIVE: This study protocol describes a quantitative evaluation of a reform in England that introduced named, accountable general practitioners for all National Health Service (NHS) patients aged 75 years or over. The national contract for general practice services required that named general practitioners offer longitudinal continuity of care within the general practice and be accountable for coordinating care to meet the patient's healthcare needs. METHODS: This study will apply a regression discontinuity design to pseudonymised electronic medical records from a sample of general practices in England. We will compare outcomes for patients aged just below and above the age of 75 to estimate the effect of named general practitioners and relate these estimated treatment effects to the characteristics of general practices. Outcomes will include a metric relating to continuity of care, namely the Usual Provider of Care Index, and numbers of general practitioner contacts, referrals to specialist care and diagnostic tests. DISCUSSION: The study illustrates an approach to evaluate national changes aimed at more integrated care using electronic records, which will complement in-depth examination in pilot sites.

Effect of a national requirement to introduce named accountable general practitioners for patients aged 75 or older in England: regression discontinuity analysis of general practice utilisation and continuity of care.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effect of introducing named accountable general practitioners (GPs) for patients aged 75 years on patterns of general practice utilisation, including continuity of care. DESIGN: Regression discontinuity design applied to data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink to estimate the treatment effect for compliers aged 75. SETTING: 200 general practices in England. PARTICIPANTS: 255 469 patients aged between 65 and 85, after excluding those aged 75. INTERVENTION: From April 2014, general practices in England were required to offer patients aged 75 or over a named accountable GP. This study compared having named accountable GPs for patients aged just over 75 with usual care provided for patients just under 75. OUTCOMES: Number of contacts (face-to-face or telephone) with GPs, longitudinal continuity of care (usual provider of care, or UPC, index), number of referrals to specialist care and numbers of common diagnostic tests. Outcomes were measured over 9 months following assignment to a named accountable GP and for a comparable period for those unassigned. RESULTS: The proportion of patients with a named accountable GP increased from 3.5% to 79.8% at age 75. No statistically significant effects were detected for continuity of care (estimated treatment effect 0.00, 95% CI -0.01 to 0.02) or the number of GP contacts per person (estimated treatment effect -0.11, 95% CI -0.31 to 0.09) over 9 months. No significant change was seen in the number of referrals, blood pressure or HbA1c diagnostic tests per person. A statistically significant treatment effect of -0.05 cholesterol tests per person (95% CI -0.07 to -0.02) was estimated; however, sensitivity analysis indicated that this effect predated the introduction of named accountable GPs. CONCLUSIONS: Continuity of care is valued by patients, but the named accountable GP initiative did not improve continuity of care or change patterns of GP utilisation in the first 9 months of the policy.

Lifetime risk of being diagnosed with, or dying from, prostate cancer by major ethnic group in England 2008-2010.

BACKGROUND: In the UK, a man's lifetime risk of being diagnosed with prostate cancer is 1 in 8. We calculated both the lifetime risk of being diagnosed with and dying from prostate cancer by major ethnic group. METHODS: Public Health England provided prostate cancer incidence and mortality data for England (2008-2010) by major ethnic group. Ethnicity and mortality data were incomplete, requiring various assumptions and adjustments before lifetime risk was calculated using DevCan (percent, range). RESULTS: The lifetime risk of being diagnosed with prostate cancer is approximately 1 in 8 (13.3 %, 13.2-15.0 %) for White men, 1 in 4 (29.3 %, 23.5-37.2 %) for Black men, and 1 in 13 (7.9 %, 6.3-10.5 %) for Asian men, whereas that of dying from prostate cancer is approximately 1 in 24 (4.2 %, 4.2-4.7 %) for White men, 1 in 12 (8.7 %, 7.6-10.6 %) for Black men, and 1 in 44 (2.3 %, 1.9-3.0 %) for Asian men. CONCLUSIONS: In England, Black men are at twice the risk of being diagnosed with, and dying from, prostate cancer compared to White men. This is an important message to communicate to Black men. White, Black, and Asian men with a prostate cancer diagnosis are all as likely to die from the disease, independent of their ethnicity. Nonetheless, proportionally more Black men are dying from prostate cancer in England.