Modeling the effect of climate change scenarios on water quality for tropical reservoirs.

Impact of natural phenomena and anthropogenic activities on water quality is closely related with temperature increase and global warming. In this study, the effects of climate change scenarios on water quality forecasts were assessed through correlations, prediction algorithms, and water quality index (WQI) for tropical reservoirs. The expected trends for different water quality parameters were estimated for the 2030-2100 period in association with temperature trends to estimate water quality using historical data from a dam in Mexico. The WQI scenarios were obtained using algorithms supported by global models of representative concentration pathways (RCPs) adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The RPCs were used to estimate water and air temperature values and extrapolate future WQI values for the water reservoir. The proposed algorithms were validated using historical information collected from 2012 to 2019 and four temperature variation intervals from 3.2 to 5.4 °C (worst forecast) to 0.9-2.3 °C (best forecast) were used for each trajectory using 0.1 °C increases to obtain the trend for each WQI parameter. Variations in the concentration (±30, ±70, and +100) of parameters related to anthropogenic activity (e.g., total suspended solids, fecal coliforms, and chemical oxygen demand) were simulated to obtain water quality scenarios for future health diagnosis of the reservoir. The results projected in the RCP models showed increasing WQI variation for lower temperature values (best forecast WQI = 74; worst forecast WQI = 71). This study offers a novel approach that integrates multiparametric statistical and WQI to help decision making on sustainable water resources management for tropical reservoirs impacted by climate change.

Assessment of Water Quality in A Tropical Reservoir in Mexico: Seasonal, Spatial and Multivariable Analysis.

Agricultural activities are highly related to the reduction of the availability of water resources due to the consumption of freshwater for crop irrigation, the use of fertilizers and pesticides. In this study, the water quality of the Adolfo López Mateos (ALM) reservoir was evaluated. This is one of the most important reservoirs in Mexico since the water stored is used mainly for crop irrigation in the most productive agricultural region. A comprehensive evaluation of water quality was carried out by analyzing the behavior of 23 parameters at four sampling points in the period of 2012-2019. The analysis of the spatial behavior of the water quality parameters was studied by spatial distribution graphs using the Inverse Distance Weighting interpolation. Pearson correlation was performed to better describe the behavior of all water quality parameters. This analysis revealed that many of these parameters were significantly correlated. The Principal Components Analysis (PCA) was carried out and showed the importance of water quality parameters. Ten principal components were obtained, which explained almost 90% of the total variation of the data. Additionally, the comprehensive pollution index showed a slight water quality variation in the ALM reservoir. This study also demonstrated that the main source of contamination in this reservoir occurs near sampling point one. Finally, the results obtained indicated that a contamination risk in the waterbody and further severe ecosystem degradations may occur if appropriate management is not taken.