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Background and Aim: The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) was updated to MELDNa and recently to MELD3.0 to predict survival of cirrhotic patients. We validated the prognostic performance of MELD3.0 and compared with MELDNa and MELD amongst cirrhotic inpatients. Methods: Demographical, clinical, biochemical, and survival data of cirrhotic inpatients in Singapore General Hospital (SGH) from 01 January 2018 to 31 December 2018, were studied retrospectively. Patients were followed up from first admission in 2018 until death or until 01 April 2023. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROC) were computed for the discriminative effects of MELD3.0, MELDNa, and MELD to predict 30-, 90-, and 365-day mortalities. AUROC was compared with DeLong's test. The cutoff MELD3.0 score for patients at high risk of 30-day mortality was determined using Youden's Index. Survival curves of patients with MELD3.0 score above and below the cutoff were estimated with Kaplan-Meier method and compared with log-rank analysis. Results: Totally 862 patients were included (median age 71.0 years [interquartile range, IQR: 64.0-79.0], 65.4% males, 75.8% Chinese). Proportion of patients with Child-Turcotte-Pugh classes A/B/C were 55.5%/35.5%/9.0%. Median MELD3.0/MELDNa/MELD scores were 12.2 (IQR: 8.7-18.3)/11.0 (IQR: 8.0-17.5)/10.3 (IQR: 7.8-15.0). Median time of follow-up was 51.9 months (IQR: 8.5-59.6). The proportion of 30-/90-/365-day mortalities was 5.7%/13.2%/26.9%. AUROC of MELD3.0/MELDNa/MELD in predicting 30-, 90-, and 365-day mortalities, respectively, were 0.823/0.793/0.783, 0.754/0.724/0.707, 0.682/0.654/0.644 (P < 0.05). Optimal cutoff to predict 30-day mortality was MELD3.0 > 19 (sensitivity = 67.4%, specificity = 82.4%). Patients with MELD3.0 > 19, compared with patients with MELD3.0 ≤ 19, had shorter median time to death (98.0 days [IQR: 28.8-398.0] vs 390.0 days [IQR: 134.3-927.5]), and higher proportion of 30-day mortality (68.8% vs 43.0%) (P < 0.001). Conclusion: MELD3.0 performs better than MELDNa and MELD in predicting mortality in cirrhotic inpatients. MELD3.0 > 19 predicts higher 30-day mortality.
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BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Acute variceal bleeding (AVB) is a major complication in patients with cirrhosis. Using a nationwide AVB audit, we performed a nested cohort study to determine whether full adherence to the AVB quality indicator (QI) improves clinical outcomes in patients with cirrhosis and AVB. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We assessed real-world adherence to AVB QI among patients with cirrhosis admitted for AVB in all public hospitals in Singapore between January 2015 and December 2020. Full adherence was considered when all 5 QIs were fulfilled: prophylactic antibiotics, vasoactive agents, timely endoscopy, endoscopic hemostasis during index endoscopy, and nonselective beta-blockers after AVB. We compare 6-week mortality between the full adherence and suboptimal adherence groups using a propensity-matched cohort.A total of 989 patients with AVB were included. Full adherence to all AVB QI was suboptimal (56.5%). Analysis of the propensity-matched cohort with comparable baseline characteristics showed that full adherence was associated with a lower risk of early infection (20.0% vs. 26.9%), early rebleeding (5.2% vs. 10.2%), and mortality at 6 weeks (8.2% vs. 19.7%) and 1 year (21.3% vs. 35.4%) ( p <0.05 for all). While full adherence was associated with a lower 6-week mortality regardless of the MELD score, nonadherence was associated with a higher 6-week mortality despite a lower predicted risk of 6-week mortality. Despite high adherence to the recommended process measures, patients with CTP-C remain at a higher risk of rebleeding, 6-week and 1-year mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Full adherence to the AVB QI should be the target for quality improvement in patients with cirrhosis.
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INTRODUCTION: The effect of preoperative weight loss via very low caloric diet (VLCD) on long-term weight loss post-bariatric surgery (BS) is conflicting. We analysed its impact on weight loss and other outcomes post-BS. METHODS: Patients (n = 306) who underwent sleeve gastrectomy or gastric bypass from 2008 to 2018 were studied. VLCD was prescribed for 14 days preoperatively. Patients were followed up for 5 years. Postoperative weight loss was compared in patients with preoperative weight gain or weight loss < 5% (WL < 5%), and weight loss ≥ 5% (WL ≥ 5%). Preoperative WL compared weight before and after VLCD; postoperative WL compared post-VLCD weight and follow-up weight. Total weight loss (TWL) encompassed pre- and postoperative WL. RESULTS: WL was < 5% in 87.3% and ≥ 5% in 12.7%. There was no significant difference in complication rate, duration of surgery or length of stay, regardless of surgical type. Patients with WL < 5% lost more weight postoperatively compared with WL ≥ 5% for up to 60 months (%postoperative WL at 1 month: WL < 5% = 13.7%, WL ≥ 5% = 10%, p = <0.001; 60 months: WL < 5% = 30.6%, WL ≥ 5% = 23.9%, p = 0.041). However, when TWL and percentage of excess body mass index loss (%EBMIL) were measured, there was no difference beyond 6 months. A predictive multivariable model for 1-year %EBMIL was formed. Significant variables included pre-VLCD BMI and preoperative WL, and the relationship between the two. CONCLUSION: Preoperative WL via VLCD was associated with reduced postoperative WL after BS, with no significant effect on complications, long-term TWL or %EBMIL. This challenges the notion that preoperative WL via VLCD should be mandated for better postoperative outcomes.
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Cirugía Bariátrica , Derivación Gástrica , Obesidad Mórbida , Índice de Masa Corporal , Dieta , Humanos , Obesidad Mórbida/cirugía , Estudios Retrospectivos , Resultado del Tratamiento , Pérdida de PesoRESUMEN
A genome-wide association study in Japan identified the C-C chemokine receptor type 6 gene (CCR6) as associated with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). This finding has not been validated in other Asian populations. A case-control study involving 996 subjects, comprising 440 controls and 556 RA patients, was done to determine their anticyclic citrullinated peptide (anti-CCP) antibody status and CCR6 polymorphism (rs3093024) genotype. Three hundred eighty-seven patients were anti-CCP positive and 153 anti-CCP negative. Logistic regression showed that allele A was likely to increase the risk of developing RA among females via a recessive model (odds ratio [OR]=1.55, 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.01, 2.39), whereas the risk effect appeared to be reduced among males via an additive model (OR=0.60, 95% CI=0.42, 0.85). Considering only subjects who are anti-CCP positive, allele A increased RA risk among females via a recessive model (OR=1.68, 95% CI=1.07, 2.64) but decreased the risk among males via an additive model (OR=0.59, 95% CI=0.39, 0.89). We showed that CCR6 polymorphism was a risk factor among females but a protective factor among males. Functional studies are warranted to unravel the pathophysiological relevance of the gene variant and other linked variants with RA.