Effects of climate on the distribution and conservation of commonly observed European earthworms.

Belowground biodiversity distribution does not necessarily reflect aboveground biodiversity patterns, but maps of soil biodiversity remain scarce because of limited data availability. Earthworms belong to the most thoroughly studied soil organisms and-in their role as ecosystem engineers-have a significant impact on ecosystem functioning. We used species distribution modeling (SDMs) and available data sets to map the spatial distribution of commonly observed (i.e., frequently recorded) earthworm species (Annelida, Oligochaeta) across Europe under current and future climate conditions. First, we predicted potential species distributions with commonly used models (i.e., MaxEnt and Biomod) and estimated total species richness (i.e., number of species in a 5 × 5 km grid cell). Second, we determined how much the different types of protected areas covered predicted earthworm richness and species ranges (i.e., distributions) by estimating the respective proportion of the range area. Earthworm species richness was high in central western Europe and low in northeastern Europe. This pattern was mainly associated with annual mean temperature and precipitation seasonality, but the importance of predictor variables to species occurrences varied among species. The geographical ranges of the majority of the earthworm species were predicted to shift to eastern Europe and partly decrease under future climate scenarios. Predicted current and future ranges were only poorly covered by protected areas, such as national parks. More than 80% of future earthworm ranges were on average not protected at all (mean [SD] = 82.6% [0.04]). Overall, our results emphasize the urgency of considering especially vulnerable earthworm species, as well as other soil organisms, in the design of nature conservation measures.

Efectos del clima sobre la distribución y conservación de la lombriz de tierra europea Resumen La distribución de la biodiversidad del subsuelo no refleja necesariamente los patrones de biodiversidad, pero los mapas de la biodiversidad del suelo aún son escasos debido a la disponibilidad limitada de datos. Las lombrices son uno de los organismos del suelo más estudiados a detalle­en su papel de ingenieros del ecosistema­y tienen un impacto significativo sobre el funcionamiento de ecosistema. Usamos modelos de distribución de especies (MDE) y conjuntos de datos disponibles para mapear la distribución espacial de las especies (Annelida, Oligochaeta) de lombrices más observadas (es decir, registradas con frecuencia) en toda Europa bajo el clima actual y el futuro. Primero pronosticamos la distribución potencial de las especies con modelos de uso común (MaxEnt y Biomod) y estimamos la riqueza total de especies (número de especies en una cuadrícula de 5 × 5 km). Después determinamos cuánto pronosticaban los diferentes tipos de áreas protegidas contempladas la riqueza de lombrices y la distribución de las especies mediante la estimación de la proporción respectiva del rango del área. La riqueza de especies fue alta en el occidente central y baja en el noreste de Europa. Este patrón estuvo asociado principalmente con la temperatura media anual y la estacionalidad de la precipitación, aunque la importancia de las variables de pronóstico para la presencia de la especie varió entre especies. Se pronosticó que la distribución geográfica de la mayoría de las especies cambiaría al este de Europa y disminuiría parcialmente bajo los escenarios climáticos futuros. El pronóstico de la distribución actual y futura contaba con una cobertura deficiente de las áreas protegidas, como los parques nacionales. En promedio, más del 80% de la distribución futura de las lombrices no estaba protegido (promedio [SD] = 82.6% [0.04]). En general, nuestros resultados destacan la urgencia por considerar a las especies vulnerables de lombrices, así como a otros organismos del suelo, en el diseño de las medidas de conservación.

On the development of a regional climate change adaptation plan: Integrating model-assisted projections and stakeholders' perceptions.

Climate change is expected to have strong social-ecological implications, with global but especially regional and local challenges. To assess the climatic vulnerability of a given territory, it is necessary to evaluate its exposure to climate change and its adaptive capacity. This study describes the development of an Action Plan for Adapting to Climate Change in the Tâmega and Sousa Region, a mountainous inter-municipal community in the North of Portugal. The goals were to identify the main impacts of climate change on water resources, agriculture, forests, biodiversity, and socioeconomic sectors, as well as to develop a plan, merging local and scientific knowledge through a transdisciplinary lens. This study describes an approach that combines modelling methods, applied in the different sectors, and participatory methods, based on the analysis of the perceptions of local actors. Results indicate that the target region will experience a generalized increase in temperature and a decrease in precipitation, which will negatively impact all studied social-ecological dimensions. Overall, local business and institutional agents perceive the primary and tourism sectors as the most vulnerable in the region. The described framework demonstrates the engagement process between relevant scientific experts and local practitioners, as well as how it is critical to understand the impacts of climate change and to support the co-design of an adaptation plan, which in turn can guide political and economic decision-making towards effective implementation of the plan. In addition, the difficulties and challenges encountered during this process are discussed to support future plans and strategies for local adaptation.

Impacts of sheep versus cattle livestock systems on birds of Mediterranean grasslands.

Mediterranean pastures are experiencing strong changes in management, involving shifts from sheep to cattle-based livestock systems. The impacts of such shifts on biodiversity are still poorly understood. Here, we sought to contrast the grazing regime, vegetation structure, bird species richness and abundance, between sheep and cattle grazed parcels, to understand the mechanisms through which management decisions impact farmland birds. During spring 2019, we characterized livestock management, bird populations and sward structure in 23 cattle and 27 sheep grazed parcels. We used a Structural Equation Model to infer the direct and indirect effects of sheep and cattle grazing on birds. Although no effects were found on overall species richness, there were species-specific responses to sheep and cattle grazed systems. Grazing pressure (variable integrating stocking rate and the number of days in the parcel) had negative impacts on the prevalence/abundance of Zitting Cisticola, Corn Bunting and Little Bustard, either directly or indirectly, through the effects of grazing pressure on vegetation height. Animal density and vegetation cover had direct positive effects in Galerida spp. and Common Quail, respectively. Zitting Cisticola and Little Bustard also showed a direct response to livestock type. Our study emphasizes the importance of grazing pressure as a driver of negative impacts for bird populations in Mediterranean grasslands. Since the ongoing transition from sheep to cattle-based systems involves increases in stocking rate, and therefore potentially higher grazing pressure, we propose a policy change to cap the maximum allowed grazing pressure. At the landscape scale, a mix of sheep and cattle grazed fields would be beneficial for maintaining bird diversity.

Using fire to enhance rewilding when agricultural policies fail.

Rewilding has been proposed as an opportunity for biodiversity conservation in abandoned landscapes. However, rewilding is challenged by the increasing fire risk associated with more flammable landscapes, and the loss of open-habitat specialist species. Contrastingly, supporting High Nature Value farmlands (HNVf) has been also highlighted as a valuable option, but the effective implementation of agricultural policies often fails leading to uncertain scenarios wherein the effects of wildfire management remain largely unexplored. Herein, we simulated fire-landscape dynamics to evaluate how fire suppression scenarios affect fire regime and biodiversity (102 species of vertebrates) under rewilding and HNVf policies in the future (2050), in a transnational biosphere reserve (Gerês-Xurés Mountains, Portugal-Spain). Rewilding and HNVf scenarios were modulated by three different levels of fire suppression effectiveness. Then, we quantified scenario effects on fire regime (burned and suppressed areas) and biodiversity (habitat suitability change for 2050). Simulations confirm HNVf as a long-term opportunity for fire suppression (up to 30,000 ha of additional suppressed areas between 2031 and 2050 in comparison to rewilding scenario) and for conservation (benefiting around 60% of species). Rewilding benefits some species (20%), including critically endangered, vulnerable and endemic taxa, while several species (33%) also profit from open habitats created by fire. Although HNVf remains the best scenario, rewilding reinforced by low fire suppression management may provide a nature-based solution when societal support through agricultural policies fails.

Late Quaternary range shifts of marcescent oaks unveil the dynamics of a major biogeographic transition in southern Europe.

Marcescent forests are ecotones distributed across southern Europe that host increased levels of biodiversity but their persistence is threatened by global change. Here we study the range dynamics of these forests in the Iberian Peninsula (IP) during the Late Quaternary, a period of profound climate and anthropic changes. We modeled and compared the distribution of eight oak taxa for the present and two paleoclimatic environments, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ~ 21 kya) and the Mid-Holocene (MH, ~ 6 kya). Presence records were combined with bioclimatic and topographic data in an ensemble modelling framework to obtain spatial projections for present and past conditions across taxa. Substantial distribution shifts were projected between the three studied periods, that were explained by precipitation, winter cold and terrain ruggedness. Results were congruent with paleoclimatic records of the IP and showed that range shifts of these contact zones concurred with range dynamics of both Submediterranean and Temperate oaks. Notably, the distribution ranges of hybrid oaks and marcescent forests matched throughout the late Quaternary. This study contributes to unveil the complex Late-Quaternary biogeography of the ecotone belt occupied by marcescent forests and, more broadly, of Mediterranean oaks. Improved knowledge of species' responses to climate dynamics will allow us to anticipate and manage future range shifts driven by climate change.

Action needed for the EU Common Agricultural Policy to address sustainability challenges.

Making agriculture sustainable is a global challenge. In the European Union (EU), the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is failing with respect to biodiversity, climate, soil, land degradation as well as socio-economic challenges.The European Commission's proposal for a CAP post-2020 provides a scope for enhanced sustainability. However, it also allows Member States to choose low-ambition implementation pathways. It therefore remains essential to address citizens' demands for sustainable agriculture and rectify systemic weaknesses in the CAP, using the full breadth of available scientific evidence and knowledge.Concerned about current attempts to dilute the environmental ambition of the future CAP, and the lack of concrete proposals for improving the CAP in the draft of the European Green Deal, we call on the European Parliament, Council and Commission to adopt 10 urgent action points for delivering sustainable food production, biodiversity conservation and climate mitigation.Knowledge is available to help moving towards evidence-based, sustainable European agriculture that can benefit people, nature and their joint futures.The statements made in this article have the broad support of the scientific community, as expressed by above 3,600 signatories to the preprint version of this manuscript. The list can be found here (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3685632).

Rewilding complex ecosystems.

The practice of rewilding has been both promoted and criticized in recent years. Benefits include flexibility to react to environmental change and the promotion of opportunities for society to reconnect with nature. Criticisms include the lack of a clear conceptualization of rewilding, insufficient knowledge about possible outcomes, and the perception that rewilding excludes people from landscapes. Here, we present a framework for rewilding that addresses these concerns. We suggest that rewilding efforts should target trophic complexity, natural disturbances, and dispersal as interacting processes that can improve ecosystem resilience and maintain biodiversity. We propose a structured approach to rewilding projects that includes assessment of the contributions of nature to people and the social-ecological constraints on restoration.

Reconciling nature conservation and traditional farming practices: a spatially explicit framework to assess the extent of High Nature Value farmlands in the European countryside.

Agriculture constitutes a dominant land cover worldwide, and rural landscapes under extensive farming practices acknowledged due to high biodiversity levels. The High Nature Value farmland (HNVf) concept has been highlighted in the EU environmental and rural policies due to their inherent potential to help characterize and direct financial support to European landscapes where high nature and/or conservation value is dependent on the continuation of specific low-intensity farming systems. Assessing the extent of HNV farmland by necessity relies on the availability of both ecological and farming systems' data, and difficulties associated with making such assessments have been widely described across Europe. A spatially explicit framework of data collection, building out from local administrative units, has recently been suggested as a means of addressing such difficulties. This manuscript tests the relevance of the proposed approach, describes the spatially explicit framework in a case study area in northern Portugal, and discusses the potential of the approach to help better inform the implementation of conservation and rural development policies. Synthesis and applications: The potential of a novel approach (combining land use/cover, farming and environmental data) to provide more accurate and efficient mapping and monitoring of HNV farmlands is tested at the local level in northern Portugal. The approach is considered to constitute a step forward toward a more precise targeting of landscapes for agri-environment schemes, as it allowed a more accurate discrimination of areas within the case study landscape that have a higher value for nature conservation.

Mapping and monitoring High Nature Value farmlands: challenges in European landscapes.

The importance of low intensity farming for the conservation of biodiversity throughout Europe was acknowledged early in the 1990s when the concept of 'High Nature Value farmlands' (HNVf) was devised. HNVf has subsequently been given high priority within the EU Rural Development Programme. This puts a requirement on each EU Member State not only to identify the extent and condition of HNVf within their borders but also to track trends in HNVf over time. However, the diversity of rural landscapes across the EU, the scarcity of (adequate) datasets on biodiversity, land cover and land use, and the lack of a common methodology for HNVf mapping currently represent obstacles to the implementation of the HNVf concept across Europe. This manuscript provides an overview of the characteristics of HNVf across Europe together with a description of the development of the HNVf concept. Current methodological approaches for the identification and mapping of HNVf across EU-27 and Switzerland are then reviewed, the main limitations of these approaches highlighted and recommendations made as to how the identification, mapping and reporting of HNVf state and trends across Europe can potentially be improved and harmonised. In particular, we propose a new framework that is built on the need for strategic HNVf monitoring based on a hierarchical, bottom-up structure of assessment units, coincident with the EU levels of political decision and devised indicators, and which is linked strongly to a collaborative European network that can provide the integration and exchange of data from different sources and scales under common standards. Such an approach is essential if the scale of the issues facing HNVf landscapes are to be identified and monitored properly at the European level. This would then allow relevant agri-environmental measures to be developed, implemented and evaluated at the scale(s) required to maintain the habitats and species of high nature conservation value that are intimately associated with those landscapes.