Climate determines transmission hotspots of Polycystic Echinococcosis, a life-threatening zoonotic disease, across Pan-Amazonia.

Polycystic Echinococcosis (PE), a neglected life-threatening zoonotic disease caused by the cestode Echinococcus vogeli, is endemic in the Amazon. Despite being treatable, PE reaches a case fatality rate of around 29% due to late or missed diagnosis. PE is sustained in Pan-Amazonia by a complex sylvatic cycle. The hunting of its infected intermediate hosts (especially the lowland paca Cuniculus paca) enables the disease to further transmit to humans, when their viscera are improperly handled. In this study, we compiled a unique dataset of host occurrences (~86000 records) and disease infections (~400 cases) covering the entire Pan-Amazonia and employed different modeling and statistical tools to unveil the spatial distribution of PE's key animal hosts. Subsequently, we derived a set of ecological, environmental, climatic, and hunting covariates that potentially act as transmission risk factors and used them as predictors of two independent Maximum Entropy models, one for animal infections and one for human infections. Our findings indicate that temperature stability promotes the sylvatic circulation of the disease. Additionally, we show how El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) extreme events disrupt hunting patterns throughout Pan-Amazonia, ultimately affecting the probability of spillover. In a scenario where climate extremes are projected to intensify, climate change at regional level appears to be indirectly driving the spillover of E. vogeli. These results hold substantial implications for a wide range of zoonoses acquired at the wildlife-human interface for which transmission is related to the manipulation and consumption of wild meat, underscoring the pressing need for enhanced awareness and intervention strategies.

Contrasts in riverscape patterns of intraspecific genetic variation in a diverse Neotropical fish community of high conservation value.

Spatial patterns of genetic variation compared across species provide information about the predictability of genetic diversity in natural populations, and areas requiring conservation measures. Due to their remarkable fish diversity, rivers in Neotropical regions are ideal systems to confront theory with observations and would benefit greatly from such approaches given their increasing vulnerability to anthropogenic pressures. We used SNP data from 18 fish species with contrasting life-history traits, co-sampled across 12 sites in the Maroni- a major river system from the Guiana Shield -, to compare patterns of intraspecific genetic variation and identify their underlying drivers. Analyses of covariance revealed a decrease in genetic diversity as distance from the river outlet increased for 5 of the 18 species, illustrating a pattern commonly observed in riverscapes for species with low-to-medium dispersal abilities. However, the mean within-site genetic diversity was lowest in the two easternmost tributaries of the Upper Maroni and around an urbanized location downstream, indicating the need to address the potential influence of local pressures in these areas, such as gold mining or fishing. Finally, the relative influence of isolation by stream distance, isolation by discontinuous river flow, and isolation by spatial heterogeneity in effective size on pairwise genetic differentiation varied across species. Species with similar dispersal and reproductive guilds did not necessarily display shared patterns of population structure. Increasing the knowledge of specific life history traits and ecological requirements of fish species in these remote areas should help further understand factors that influence their current patterns of genetic variation.