Estimating genotypic richness and proportion of identical multi-locus genotypes in aquatic microalgal populations.

The majority of microalgal species reproduce asexually, yet population genetic studies rarely find identical multi-locus genotypes (MLG) in microalgal blooms. Instead, population genetic studies identify large genotypic diversity in most microalgal species. This paradox of frequent asexual reproduction but low number of identical genotypes hampers interpretations of microalgal genotypic diversity. We present a computer model for estimating, for the first time, the number of distinct MLGs by simulating microalgal population composition after defined exponential growth periods. The simulations highlighted the effects of initial genotypic diversity, sample size and intraspecific differences in growth rates on the probability of isolating identical genotypes. We estimated the genotypic richness for five natural microalgal species with available high-resolution population genetic data and monitoring-based growth rates, indicating 500 000 to 2 000 000 distinct genotypes for species with few observed clonal replicates (<5%). Furthermore, our simulations indicated high variability in genotypic richness over time and among microalgal species. Genotypic richness was also strongly impacted by intraspecific variability in growth rates. The probability of finding identical MLGs and sampling a representative fraction of genotypes decreased noticeably with smaller sample sizes, challenging the detection of differences in genotypic diversity with typical isolate numbers in the field.

Recovery from multi-millennial natural coastal hypoxia in the Stockholm Archipelago, Baltic Sea, terminated by modern human activity.

Enhanced nutrient input and warming have led to the development of low oxygen (hypoxia) in coastal waters globally. For many coastal areas, insight into redox conditions prior to human impact is lacking. Here, we reconstructed bottom water redox conditions and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for the coastal Stockholm Archipelago over the past 3000 yr. Elevated sedimentary concentrations of molybdenum indicate (seasonal) hypoxia between 1000 b.c.e. and 1500 c.e. Biomarker-based (TEX86) SST reconstructions indicate that the recovery from hypoxia after 1500 c.e. coincided with a period of significant cooling (∼ 2°C), while human activity in the study area, deduced from trends in sedimentary lead and existing paleobotanical and archeological records, had significantly increased. A strong increase in sedimentary lead and zinc, related to more intense human activity in the 18th and 19th century, and the onset of modern warming precede the return of hypoxia in the Stockholm Archipelago. We conclude that climatic cooling played an important role in the recovery from natural hypoxia after 1500 c.e., but that eutrophication and warming, related to modern human activity, led to the return of hypoxia in the 20th century. Our findings imply that ongoing global warming may exacerbate hypoxia in the coastal zone of the Baltic Sea.

Consistently dated Atlantic sediment cores over the last 40 thousand years.

Rapid changes in ocean circulation and climate have been observed in marine-sediment and ice cores over the last glacial period and deglaciation, highlighting the non-linear character of the climate system and underlining the possibility of rapid climate shifts in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing. To date, these rapid changes in climate and ocean circulation are still not fully explained. One obstacle hindering progress in our understanding of the interactions between past ocean circulation and climate changes is the difficulty of accurately dating marine cores. Here, we present a set of 92 marine sediment cores from the Atlantic Ocean for which we have established age-depth models that are consistent with the Greenland GICC05 ice core chronology, and computed the associated dating uncertainties, using a new deposition modeling technique. This is the first set of consistently dated marine sediment cores enabling paleoclimate scientists to evaluate leads/lags between circulation and climate changes over vast regions of the Atlantic Ocean. Moreover, this data set is of direct use in paleoclimate modeling studies.

Echoes from the past: a healthy Baltic Sea requires more effort.

Integrated sediment multiproxy studies and modeling were used to reconstruct past changes in the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Results of natural changes over the past 6000 years in the Baltic Sea ecosystem suggest that forecasted climate warming might enhance environmental problems of the Baltic Sea. Integrated modeling and sediment proxy studies reveal increased sea surface temperatures and expanded seafloor anoxia (in deep basins) during earlier natural warm climate phases, such as the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Under future IPCC scenarios of global warming, there is likely no improvement of bottom water conditions in the Baltic Sea. Thus, the measures already designed to produce a healthier Baltic Sea are insufficient in the long term. The interactions between climate change and anthropogenic impacts on the Baltic Sea should be considered in management, implementation of policy strategies in the Baltic Sea environmental issues, and adaptation to future climate change.