Changes Over Time in the Lémann Index and the Inflammatory Bowel Disease Disability Index in a Prospective Cohort of Patients With Crohn's Disease.

BACKGROUND: Crohn's disease (CD) is a progressive, destructive, and disabling disorder. Our study aimed to assess changes over time in the Lémann index (LI) and the Inflammatory Bowel Disease Disability Index (IBD-DI) in a cohort of CD patients. METHODS: This was a single-center prospective cohort study of 130 consecutive CD patients with a follow-up of at least 4 years. The LI 1 and the IBD-DI 1 questionnaires were assessed in 2016 and again between September 2020 and October 2021 (LI 2 and IBD-DI 2). RESULTS: Of the 130 patients with assessment of both LI 1 and IBD-DI 1, 61 had calculation of the LI 2 and 98 patients answered the IBD-DI 2 questionnaire, with a median time between the 2 evaluations of 4.2 years. The LI increased for 16 (26%), decreased for 26 (43%), and remained unchanged for 19 (31%) patients. The median LI did not change over time (9.6 vs 9.3; P = .14). Clinical disease activity was significantly associated with bowel damage progression. A high initial LI (>7.9) was not associated with CD progression (surgery, drug dose escalation, or change of biologic). The IBD-DI decreased for 59 (60.2%), increased for 37 (37.8%), and remained unchanged for 2 (2%) patients. The median IBD-DI decreased significantly over time (23.2 vs 21.4; P = .006). There was no correlation between the 2 indexes. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first prospective cohort study assessing changes over time in both the LI and the IBD-DI in CD patients. After 4 years, the LI appeared to be stable and the IBD-DI decreased, with no correlation between the 2 indexes.

After a long period of follow-up (4 years) of patients with Crohn's disease, bowel damages (assessed by the Lémann index) appeared stable and disability (assessed by the Inflammatory Bowel Disease Disability Index) decreased, without there being any correlation between the 2 indexes over time.

Sarcopenia does not affect liver regeneration and postoperative course after a major hepatectomy. A prospective study on 125 patients using CT volumetry and HIDA scintigraphy.

BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVES: Sarcopenia is a morbi-mortality risk factor in digestive surgery, though its impact after major hepatectomy (MH) remains unknown. This prospective pilot study investigated whether volume and function of a regenerating liver is influenced by body composition. METHODS: From 2011 to 2016, 125 consecutive patients had computed tomography and 99mTc-labelled-mebrofenin SPECT-scintigraphy before and after MH at day 7 and 1 month for measurements of liver volumes and functions. L3 vertebra muscle mass identified sarcopenia. Primary endpoint was the impact of sarcopenia on regeneration capacities (i.e. volume/function changes and post-hepatectomy liver failure (PHLF) rate). Secondary endpoint was 3-month morbi-mortality. RESULTS: Sarcopenic patients (SP; N = 69) were significantly older than non-sarcopenic (NSP), with lower BMI and more malignancies, but with comparable liver function/volume at baseline. Postoperatively, SP showed higher rates of ISGLS_PHLF (24.6 % vs 10.9 %; p = 0.05) but with comparable rates of severe morbidity (23.2 % vs 16.4 %; p = 0.35), overall (8.7 % vs 3.6 %; p = 0.3) and PHLF-related mortality (8,7 % vs 1.8 %; p = 0.075). After matching on the extent of resection or using propensity score, regeneration and PHLF rates were similar. CONCLUSION: This prospective study using first sequential SPECT-scintigraphy showed that sarcopenia by itself does not affect liver regeneration capacities and short-term postoperative course after MH.

Serum aryl hydrocarbon receptor activity is associated with survival in patients with alcohol-associated hepatitis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Patients with alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) have an altered fecal metabolome, including reduced microbiota-derived tryptophan metabolites, which function as ligands for aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AhR). The aim of this study was to assess serum AhR ligand activity in patients with AH. APPROACH AND RESULTS: The study included 74 controls without AUD, 97 patients with AUD, and 330 patients with AH from 2 different multicenter cohorts (InTeam: 134, AlcHepNet: 196). Serum AhR activity was evaluated using an AhR reporter assay with HepG2-Lucia cells incubated with serum for 24 hours. Serum AhR activity was significantly higher in patients with AH compared with both controls (1.59 vs. 0.96-fold change, p < 0.001) and patients with AUD (1.59 vs. 0.93, p < 0.001). In both AH cohorts, patients with AhR activity ≥ 2.09 had significantly lower cumulative survival rates at 30, 60, 90, and 180 days compared to those with AhR activity < 2.09. When serum AhR activity was used to further stratify patients with severe AH, the cumulative 30, 60, 90, and 180-day survival rates for patients with severe AH and the AhR activity ≥ 2.09 group were all significantly lower than those with an AhR activity < 2.09 group. CONCLUSIONS: Serum AhR activity was significantly higher in patients with AH compared with controls and individuals with AUD, and this increased activity was associated with higher mortality. Consequently, serum AhR activity holds potential as a prognostic marker.

Association between public health policies on alcohol and worldwide cancer, liver disease and cardiovascular disease outcomes.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The long-term impact of alcohol-related public health policies (PHPs) on disease burden is unclear. We aimed to assess the association between alcohol-related PHPs and alcohol-related health consequences. METHODS: We conducted an ecological multi-national study including 169 countries. We collected data on alcohol-related PHPs from the WHO Global Information System of Alcohol and Health 2010. Data on alcohol-related health consequences between 2010-2019 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease database. We classified PHPs into five items, including criteria for low, moderate, and strong PHP establishment. We estimated an alcohol preparedness index (API) using multiple correspondence analysis (0 lowest and 100 highest establishment). We estimated an incidence rate ratio (IRR) for outcomes according to API using adjusted multilevel generalized linear models with a Poisson family distribution. RESULTS: The median API in the 169 countries was 54 [IQR 34.9-76.8]. The API was inversely associated with alcohol use disorder (AUD) prevalence (IRR 0.13; 95% CI 0.03-0.60; p = 0.010), alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) mortality (IRR 0.14; 95% CI 0.03-0.79; p = 0.025), mortality due to neoplasms (IRR 0.09; 95% CI 0.02-0.40; p = 0.002), alcohol-attributable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) (IRR 0.13; 95% CI 0.02-0.65; p = 0.014), and cardiovascular diseases (IRR 0.09; 95% CI 0.02-0.41; p = 0.002). The highest associations were observed in the Americas, Africa, and Europe. These associations became stronger over time, and AUD prevalence was significantly lower after 2 years, while ALD mortality and alcohol-attributable HCC incidence decreased after 4 and 8 years from baseline API assessment, respectively (p <0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The API is a valuable instrument to quantify the robustness of alcohol-related PHP establishment. Lower AUD prevalence and lower mortality related to ALD, neoplasms, alcohol-attributable HCC, and cardiovascular diseases were observed in countries with a higher API. Our results encourage the development and strengthening of alcohol-related policies worldwide. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: We first developed an alcohol preparedness index, an instrument to assess the existence of alcohol-related public policies for each country. We then evaluated the long-term association of the country's alcohol preparedness index in 2010 with the burden of chronic liver disease, hepatocellular carcinoma, other neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease. The strengthening of alcohol-related public health policies could impact long-term mortality rates from cardiovascular disease, neoplasms, and liver disease. These conditions are the main contributors to the global burden of disease related to alcohol use. Over time, this association has not only persisted but also grown stronger. Our results expand the preliminary evidence regarding the importance of public health policies in controlling alcohol-related health consequences.

Conventional cytotoxic chemotherapy for gastrointestinal cancer in patients with cirrhosis: A multicentre case-control study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Progresses in management make a higher proportion of cirrhotic patients with gastrointestinal (GI) cancer candidates to chemotherapy. Data are needed on the safety and liver-related events associated with the use of chemotherapy in these patients. METHODS: Forty-nine patients with cirrhosis receiving chemotherapy against GI cancer from 2013 to 2018 were identified in the French Health Insurance Database using ICD-10 codes K70-K74, and matched 1:2 to non-cirrhotic controls (n = 98) on age, tumour type and type of treatment. Adverse events (AE), dose tapering, discontinuation rate, liver-related events and survival rate were compared. RESULTS: Patients with cirrhosis (Child-Pugh A 91%) more often received lower doses (38.8% vs 7.1%, p < .001), without significant differences in terms of grade 3/4 AE or dose tapering rates (29.6% vs. 36.7%; 22.3% vs 24.4%, respectively). Treatment discontinuation rate was higher in patients with cirrhosis (23.3% vs. 11.3%, p = .005). Child-Pugh (p = .007) and MELD (p = .025) scores increased under chemotherapy. Five patients with cirrhosis (10.2%) had liver decompensation within 12 months, and 17.2% of deaths in the cirrhosis group were liver-related versus 0% in matched controls. WHO-PS stage > 1 (HR 3.74, CI95%: 2.13-6.57, p < .001), TNM-stage M1 (HR 3.61, CI 95%: 1.82-7.16, p < .001), non-colorectal cancer (HR 1.73, CI 95%: 1.05-2.86, p = .032) and bilirubin higher than 5 mg/dL (HR 2.26, CI 95%: 1.39-3.70, p < .001) were independent prognostic factors of 2-year mortality, whereas cirrhosis was not. CONCLUSIONS: Chemotherapy should be proposed only in patients with compensated cirrhosis with close monitoring of liver function. Dose management remains challenging. Multidisciplinary management is warranted to improve these patients' outcomes.

Hepatic fat quantification in dual-layer computed tomography using a three-material decomposition algorithm.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to evaluate a three-material decomposition algorithm for hepatic fat quantification using a dual-layer computed tomography (DL-CT) and MRI as reference standard on a large patient cohort. METHOD: A total of 104 patients were retrospectively included in our study, i.e., each patient had an MRI exam and a DL-CT exam in our institution within a maximum of 31 days. Four regions of interest (ROIs) were positioned blindly and similarly in the liver, by two independent readers on DL-CT and MRI images. For DL-CT exams, all imaging phases were included. Fat fraction agreement between CT and MRI was performed using intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC), determination coefficients R2, and Bland-Altman plots. Diagnostic performance was determined using sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values. The cutoff for steatosis was 5%. RESULTS: Correlation between MRI and CT data was excellent for all perfusion phases with ICC calculated at 0.99 for each phase. Determination coefficients R2 were also good for all perfusion phases (about 0.95 for all phases). Performance of DL-CT in the diagnosis of hepatic steatosis was good with sensitivity between 89 and 91% and specificity ranging from 75 to 80%, depending on the perfusion phase. The positive predictive value was ranging from 78 to 93% and the negative predictive value from 82 to 86%. CONCLUSION: Multi-material decomposition in DL-CT allows quantification of hepatic fat fraction with a good correlation to MRI data. CLINICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT: The use of DL-CT allows for detection of hepatic steatosis. This is especially interesting as an opportunistic finding CT performed for other reasons, as early detection can help prevent or slowdown the development of liver metabolic disease. KEY POINTS: • Hepatic fat fractions provided by the dual-layer CT algorithm is strongly correlated with that measured on MRI. • Dual-layer CT is accurate to detect hepatic steatosis ≥ 5%. • Dual-layer CT allows opportunistic detection of steatosis, on CT scan performed for various indications.

The intersection between alcohol-related liver disease and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) are the leading causes of chronic liver disease worldwide. NAFLD and ALD share pathophysiological, histological and genetic features and both alcohol and metabolic dysfunction coexist as aetiological factors in many patients with hepatic steatosis. A diagnosis of NAFLD requires the exclusion of significant alcohol consumption and other causes of liver disease. However, data suggest that significant alcohol consumption is often under-reported in patients classified as having NAFLD and that alcohol and metabolic factors interact to exacerbate the progression of liver disease. In this Review, we analyse existing data on the interaction between alcohol consumption and metabolic syndrome as well as the overlapping features and differences in the pathogenesis of ALD and NAFLD. We also discuss the clinical implications of the coexistence of alcohol consumption, of any degree, in patients with evidence of metabolic derangement as well as the use of alcohol biomarkers to detect alcohol intake. Finally, we summarize the evolving nomenclature of fatty liver disease and describe a recent proposal to classify patients at the intersection of NAFLD and ALD. We propose that, regardless of the presumed aetiology, patients with fatty liver disease should be evaluated for both metabolic syndrome and alcohol consumption to enable better prognostication and a personalized medicine approach.

Hepatocyte-derived biomarkers predict liver-related events at 2 years in Child-Pugh class A alcohol-related cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: In patients with compensated alcohol-related cirrhosis, reliable prognostic biomarkers are lacking. Keratin-18 and hepatocyte-derived large extracellular vesicle (lEV) concentrations reflect disease activity, but their ability to predict liver-related events is unknown. METHODS: We measured plasma keratin-18 and hepatocyte lEV concentrations in 500 patients with Child-Pugh class A alcohol-related cirrhosis. The ability of these hepatocyte-derived biomarkers, alone or combined with model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and FibroTest scores, to predict liver-related events at 2 years was analyzed, taking into account the alcohol consumption at inclusion and during follow-up. RESULTS: Keratin-18 and hepatocyte lEV concentrations increased with alcohol consumption. In patients without active alcohol consumption at enrollment (n = 419), keratin-18 concentration predicted liver-related events at 2 years, independently of FibroTest and MELD. Patients with both keratin-18 concentrations >285 U/L and FibroTest >0.74 had a 24% cumulative incidence of liver-related events at 2 years, vs. 5% to 14% in other groups of patients. Similar results were obtained when combining keratin-18 concentrations >285 U/L with MELD >10. In patients with active alcohol consumption at enrollment (n = 81), hepatocyte lEVs predicted liver-related events at 2 years, independently of FibroTest and MELD. Patients with both hepatocyte lEV concentrations >50 U/L and FibroTest >0.74 had a 62% cumulative incidence of liver-related events at 2 years, vs. 8% to 13% in other groups of patients. Combining hepatocyte lEV concentrations >50 U/L with MELD >10 had a lower discriminative ability. Similar results were obtained when using decompensation of cirrhosis, defined according to Baveno VII criteria, as an endpoint. CONCLUSION: In patients with Child-Pugh class A alcohol-related cirrhosis, combining hepatocyte-derived biomarkers with FibroTest or MELD scores identifies patients at high risk of liver-related events, and could be used for risk stratification and patient selection in clinical trials. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: In patients with compensated alcohol-related cirrhosis, reliable predictors of outcome are lacking. In patients with Child-Pugh class A alcohol-related cirrhosis, combining hepatocyte-derived biomarkers (keratin-18 and hepatocyte-large extracellular vesicles) with FibroTest or MELD scores identifies those at high risk of liver-related events at 2 years. The identified patients at high risk of liver-related events are the target-of-choice population for intensive surveillance (e.g., referral to tertiary care centers; intensive control of risk factors) and inclusion in clinical trials.

Effect of Prophylactic Antibiotics on Mortality in Severe Alcohol-Related Hepatitis: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: The benefits of prophylactic antibiotics for hospitalized patients with severe alcohol-related hepatitis are unclear. Objective: To determine the efficacy of amoxicillin-clavulanate, compared with placebo, on mortality in patients hospitalized with severe alcohol-related hepatitis and treated with prednisolone. Design, Setting, and Participants: Multicenter, randomized, double-blind clinical trial among patients with biopsy-proven severe alcohol-related hepatitis (Maddrey function score ≥32 and Model for End-stage Liver Disease [MELD] score ≥21) from June 13, 2015, to May 24, 2019, in 25 centers in France and Belgium. All patients were followed up for 180 days. Final follow-up occurred on November 19, 2019. Intervention: Patients were randomly assigned (1:1 allocation) to receive prednisolone combined with amoxicillin-clavulanate (n = 145) or prednisolone combined with placebo (n = 147). Main Outcome and Measures: The primary outcome was all-cause mortality at 60 days. Secondary outcomes were all-cause mortality at 90 and 180 days; incidence of infection, incidence of hepatorenal syndrome, and proportion of participants with a MELD score less than 17 at 60 days; and proportion of patients with a Lille score less than 0.45 at 7 days. Results: Among 292 randomized patients (mean age, 52.8 [SD, 9.2] years; 80 [27.4%] women) 284 (97%) were analyzed. There was no significant difference in 60-day mortality between participants randomized to amoxicillin-clavulanate and those randomized to placebo (17.3% in the amoxicillin-clavulanate group and 21.3% in the placebo group [P = .33]; between-group difference, -4.7% [95% CI, -14.0% to 4.7%]; hazard ratio, 0.77 [95% CI, 0.45-1.31]). Infection rates at 60 days were significantly lower in the amoxicillin-clavulanate group (29.7% vs 41.5%; mean difference, -11.8% [95% CI, -23.0% to -0.7%]; subhazard ratio, 0.62; [95% CI, 0.41-0.91]; P = .02). There were no significant differences in any of the remaining 3 secondary outcomes. The most common serious adverse events were related to liver failure (25 in the amoxicillin-clavulanate group and 20 in the placebo group), infections (23 in the amoxicillin-clavulanate group and 46 in the placebo group), and gastrointestinal disorders (15 in the amoxicillin-clavulanate group and 21 in the placebo group). Conclusion and Relevance: In patients hospitalized with severe alcohol-related hepatitis, amoxicillin-clavulanate combined with prednisolone did not improve 2-month survival compared with prednisolone alone. These results do not support prophylactic antibiotics to improve survival in patients hospitalized with severe alcohol-related hepatitis. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02281929.

Liver Transplantation in Alcohol-related Liver Disease and Alcohol-related Hepatitis.

Alcohol-related liver disease (ARLD) remains one of the leading causes of chronic liver disease and the prevalence of alcohol-related cirrhosis is still increasing worldwide. Thus, ARLD is one of the leading indications for liver transplantation (LT) worldwide especially after the arrival of direct-acting antivirals for chronic hepatitis C infection. Despite the risk of alcohol relapse, the outcomes of LT for ARLD are as good as for other indications such as hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), with 1-, 5-, and 10- year survival rates of 85%, 74%, and 59%, respectively. Despite these good results, certain questions concerning LT for ARLD remain unanswered, in particular because of persistent organ shortages. As a result, too many transplantation centers continue to require 6 months of abstinence from alcohol for patients with ARLD before LT to reduce the risk of alcohol relapse even though compelling data show the poor prognostic value of this criterion. A recent pilot study even observed a lower alcohol relapse rate in patients receiving LT after less than 6 months of abstinence as long as addictological follow-up is reinforced. Thus, the question should not be whether LT should be offered to patients with ARLD but how to select patients who will benefit from this treatment.

Diagnosis and management of hepatic encephalopathy: The French recommendations.

Hepatic encephalopathy (HE) is a frequent and severe complication of liver disease with poor patient outcomes. However, it is a poorly understood complication, with no consensus for diagnosis. Therefore, HE is often underdiagnosed. Differential diagnosis may be cumbersome because of non-specific symptoms, such as confusion, cognitive disorders, the aetiological factors of cirrhosis and comorbidities, which are often observed in cirrhotic patients. Therefore, an overt or covert form of HE should be systematically investigated. Advice is provided to drive patient work-up. Effective treatments are available to prevent or treat HE bouts, but the issue of single or combination therapy has not been resolved. Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) placement largely improved the prognosis of cirrhotic patients, but HE occurrence of HE is often a fear, even when post-TIPS HE can be avoided by a careful selection of patients and preventive treatment. HE is an indication of liver transplantation. However, its reversibility post-transplantation and the consequences of transplantation in patients with other causes of neurological disorders remain controversial, which supports the performance of an extensive work-up in expert centres for this subset of patients. The present guidelines assist clinicians in the diagnosis of the overt or covert form of HE to implement curative and preventive treatments and clarify which patients require referral to expert centres for consideration for liver transplantation. These guidelines are very clinically oriented and address different frequent clinical issues to help physicians make bedside decisions.

Low alcohol consumption influences outcomes in individuals with alcohol-related compensated cirrhosis in a French multicenter cohort.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The harmful impact of heavy alcohol consumption and recurrence in patients with alcohol-related cirrhosis is long-established, although this is based on old studies. However, the drivers of long-term outcome still need to be clearly investigated. METHOD: All patients with biopsy-proven compensated alcohol-related cirrhosis included in the CIRRAL cohort (22 centers) were prospectively studied. Prognostic variables of survival and liver event-free survival were assessed using multivariable Cox models with stepwise selection. The prognostic impact of alcohol recurrence during follow-up (computed in glass-years in the same way as pack-years for tobacco) was assessed using a time-dependent covariable. RESULTS: From 2010 to 2016, 650 patients were included. The median age at baseline was 58.4 years, 67.4% were men and the median BMI was 27.8 kg/m2, 63.8% had a history of liver decompensation, and 70.2% had discontinued alcohol. At 5 years, recurrence occurred in 30.9% of abstinent patients and this risk was higher in patients with a history of drug abuse and in those with shorter alcohol discontinuation times. Median survival was 97 months. Age, alcohol consumption at baseline, platelet count and Child-Pugh score >5 were associated with overall and liver event-free survival on multivariate analysis. Alcohol consumption of more than 25 glass-years during follow-up was independently associated with lower survival and with a trend toward lower liver event-free survival, with the risk increasing from 1 glass-year, though not significantly. Simon & Makuch plots confirm the benefit of no alcohol consumption (<1 glass/week) on both outcomes and the dose-dependent impact of alcohol over time. CONCLUSION: This prospective study in patients with compensated alcohol-related cirrhosis identifies factors predictive of alcohol recurrence during follow-up and shows that moderate alcohol consumption during follow-up negatively impacts outcomes. Patients with alcohol-related cirrhosis should be advised to completely stop drinking alcohol. REGISTRATION: CIRRAL (NCT01213927) cohort was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov and the full protocol is available at the following link: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01213927. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: In patients with alcohol-related cirrhosis, data are lacking about the impact of the amount of alcohol consumed on both survival and liver-related events. The present study based on the CIRRAL cohort demonstrates that alcohol recurrence occurs in more than 30% of patients with compensated cirrhosis and that even a moderate recurrence strongly influences outcomes. Patients with compensated alcohol-related cirrhosis should be advised to completely discontinue alcohol consumption, even in small amounts, as the present study shows that no alcohol consumption can be regarded as safe when cirrhosis has developed.

Neo-Adjuvant Use of Sorafenib for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Awaiting Liver Transplantation.

Data on efficacy and safety of sorafenib in a neoadjuvant setting for HCC awaiting liver transplantation (LT) are heterogeneous and scarce. We aimed to investigate the trajectory of patients treated with sorafenib while awaiting LT. All patients listed for HCC and treated with sorafenib were included in a monocentric observational study. A clinical and biological evaluation was performed every month. Radiological tumor response evaluation was realized every 3 months on the waiting list and every 6 months after LT. Among 327 patients listed for HCC, 62 (19%) were treated with Sorafenib. Sorafenib was initiated for HCC progression after loco-regional therapy (LRT) in 50% of cases and for impossibility of LRT in 50% of cases. The mean duration of treatment was 6 months. Thirty six patients (58%) dropped-out for tumor progression and 26 (42%) patients were transplanted. The 5-year overall and recurrent-free survival after LT was 77% and 48% respectively. Patients treated for impossibility of LRT had acceptable 5-year intention-to-treat overall and post-LT survivals. Conversely, patients treated for HCC progression presented high dropout rate and low intention-to-treat survival. Our results suggest that it is very questionable in terms of utility that patients treated for HCC progression should even be kept listed once the tumor progression has been observed.

Benefits of tailored hepatocellular carcinoma screening in patients with cirrhosis on cancer-specific and overall mortality: A modeling approach.

To validate cancer screening programs, experts recommend estimating effects on case fatality rates (CFRs) and cancer-specific mortality. This study evaluates hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) screening in patients with cirrhosis for those outcomes using a modeling approach. We designed a Markov model to assess 10-year HCC-CFR, HCC-related, and overall mortality per 100,000 screened patients with compensated cirrhosis. The model evaluates different HCC surveillance intervals (none, annual [12 months], semiannual [6 months], or quarterly [3 months]) and imaging modalities (ultrasound [US] or magnetic resonance imaging [MRI]) in various annual incidences (0.2%, 0.4%, or 1.5%). Compared to no surveillance, 6-month US reduced the 10-year HCC-CFR from 77% to 46%. With annual incidences of 0.2%, 0.4%, and 1.5%, the model predicted 281, 565, and 2059 fewer HCC-related deaths, respectively, and 187, 374, and 1356 fewer total deaths per 100,000 screened patients, respectively. Combining alpha-fetoprotein screening to 6-month US led to 32, 63, and 230 fewer HCC-related deaths per 100,000 screened patients for annual incidences of 0.2%, 0.4%, and 1.5%, respectively. Compared to 6-month US, 3-month US reduced cancer-related mortality by 14%, predicting 61, 123, and 446 fewer HCC-related deaths per 100,000 screened patients with annual incidences of 0.2%, 0.4%, and 1.5%, respectively. Compared to 6-month US, 6-month MRI (-17%) and 12-month MRI (-6%) reduced HCC-related mortality. Compared to 6-month US, overall mortality reductions ranged from -0.1% to -1.3% when using 3-month US or MRI. A US surveillance interval of 6 months improves HCC-related and overall mortality compared to no surveillance. A shorter US interval or using MRI could reduce HCC-CFR and HCC-related mortality, with a modest effect on overall mortality.