Coefficient identification in a SIS fractional-order modelling of economic losses in the propagation of COVID-19.

A fractional-order SIS (Susceptible-Infectious-Susceptible) model with time-dependent coefficients is used to analyse some effects of the novel coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19). This generalized model is suitable for describing the COVID dynamics since it does not presume permanent immunity after contagion. The fractional derivative activates the memory property of the dynamics of the susceptible and infectious population time series. A coefficient identification inverse problem is posed, which consists of reconstructing the time-varying transmission and recovery rates, which are of paramount importance in practice for both medics and politicians. The inverse problem is reduced to a minimization problem, which is solved in a least squares sense. The iterative predictor-corrector algorithm reconstructs the time-dependent parameters in a piecewise-linear fashion. The economic losses emerging from social distancing using the calibrated model are also discussed. A comparison between the results obtained by the classical model and the fractional-order model is included, which is validated by ample tests with synthetic and real data.

Intensified vmPFC surveillance over PTSS under perturbed microRNA-608/AChE interaction.

Trauma causes variable risk of posttraumatic stress symptoms (PTSS) owing to yet-unknown genome-neuronal interactions. Here, we report co-intensified amygdala and ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) emotional responses that may overcome PTSS in individuals with the single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs17228616 in the acetylcholinesterase (AChE) gene. We have recently shown that in individuals with the minor rs17228616 allele, this SNP interrupts AChE suppression by microRNA (miRNA)-608, leading to cortical elevation of brain AChE and reduced cortisol and the miRNA-608 target GABAergic modulator CDC42, all stress-associated. To examine whether this SNP has effects on PTSS and threat-related brain circuits, we exposed 76 healthy Israel Defense Forces soldiers who experienced chronic military stress to a functional magnetic resonance imaging task of emotional and neutral visual stimuli. Minor allele individuals predictably reacted to emotional stimuli by hyperactivated amygdala, a hallmark of PTSS and a predisposing factor of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Despite this, minor allele individuals showed no difference in PTSS levels. Mediation analyses indicated that the potentiated amygdala reactivity in minor allele soldiers promoted enhanced vmPFC recruitment that was associated with their limited PTSS. Furthermore, we found interrelated expression levels of several miRNA-608 targets including CD44, CDC42 and interleukin 6 in human amygdala samples (N=7). Our findings suggest that miRNA-608/AChE interaction is involved in the threat circuitry and PTSS and support a model where greater vmPFC regulatory activity compensates for amygdala hyperactivation in minor allele individuals to neutralize their PTSS susceptibility.

The use of mental health services by adolescent smokers: a nationwide Israeli study.

In this study, we aimed to evaluate the utilization of mental health services by adolescent smokers, the presence of untreated mental disorders in this young population and the associated emotional and behavioral difficulties. We performed a nationwide survey study of an Israeli representative sample of 906 adolescents and their mothers. Mental disorders were assessed using the Development and Well-Being Assessment (DAWBA) Inventory. Emotional and behavioral difficulties were evaluated using the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ). Mental health services use and smoking habits were evaluated by relevant questionnaires. Adolescent smokers were using significantly more mental health services than non-smokers (79% vs. 63%, respectively, P<0.001), independently of their mental health status or ethnic group. Adolescent smokers also reported more emotional and behavioral difficulties in most areas (P<0.001), which are consistent with their mothers' reports, except in the area of peer relationships. The treatment gap for the smoking adolescents was 53% compared to 69% in the non-smokers (P<0.001). This is the first study characterizing the use of mental health services and the related emotional and behavioral difficulties in a nationally-representative sample of adolescents. The findings of a wide treatment gap and the rates of the associated emotional and behavioral difficulties are highly relevant to the psychiatric assessment and national treatment plans of adolescent smokers.

Self versus maternal reports of emotional and behavioral difficulties in suicidal and non-suicidal adolescents: an Israeli nationwide survey.

UNLABELLED: There is relatively little research addressing parent-adolescent agreement as regards to reporting on adolescent suicidal behavior in general and their behavioral and emotional difficulties in particular. The objective of this study was to compare maternal and adolescents' reports on behavioral and emotional difficulties among adolescents with and without suicidal behavior. This nationally-representative sample included 906 adolescents and their mothers. The mothers and adolescents were interviewed and evaluated separately using the Development and Well-Being Assessment Inventory (DAWBA) and the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ). Self-rated SDQ scores of the suicidal adolescents were significantly higher in all SDQ problem scales compared to the non-suicidal participants. In contrast, maternal-rated SDQ assessments failed to discriminate between these groups, except the Hyperactivity scale. We demonstrated that mothers of suicidal adolescents in the community hardly recognize the emotional and behavioral difficulties of their offsprings. CONCLUSION: The mental examination of the adolescent patient should be maintained as the central and most reliable source of information regarding the suicidal adolescent. Mental health services planning of national suicide prevention programs should take into account these poor mother-adolescent agreement findings.

Battlefield-like stress following simulated combat and suppression of attention bias to threat.

BACKGROUND: Acute stress disorder involves prominent symptoms of threat avoidance. Preliminary cross-sectional data suggest that such threat-avoidance symptoms may also manifest cognitively, as attentional threat avoidance. Confirming these findings in a longitudinal study might provide insights on risk prediction and anxiety prevention in traumatic exposures. METHOD: Attention-threat bias and post-traumatic symptoms were assessed in soldiers at two points in time: early in basic training and 23 weeks later, during advanced combat training. Based on random assignment, the timing of the repeat assessment occurred in one of two schedules: for a combat simulation group, the repeat assessment occurred immediately following a battlefield simulation exercise, and for a control group, the assessment occurred shortly before this exercise. RESULTS: Both groups showed no threat-related attention bias at initial assessments. Following acute stress, the combat simulation group exhibited a shift in attention away from threat whereas the control group showed no change in attention bias. Stronger threat avoidance in the combat simulation group correlated with severity of post-traumatic symptoms. Such an association was not found in the control group. CONCLUSIONS: Acute stress may lead some individuals to shift their attention away from threats, perhaps to minimize stress exposure. This acute attention response may come at a psychological cost, given that it correlates with post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms. Further research is needed to determine how these associations relate to full-blown PTSD in soldier and civilian populations.

Pathways to functional outcomes in schizophrenia: the role of premorbid functioning, negative symptoms and intelligence.

BACKGROUND: Social and intellectual premorbid functioning are generally estimated retrospectively, and related to clinical or hospitalization outcomes in schizophrenia. Yet the relationship between premorbid functioning assessed prior to psychiatric hospitalization and postmorbid functional outcomes has not been examined. OBJECTIVES: To test competing models of the relationship between (a) functional outcomes with (b) premorbid functioning assessed on nationally administered tests prior to psychiatric hospitalization, postmorbid intellectual functioning and symptomatology using a historical prospective design. METHODS: Ninety one inpatient and outpatient males with schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder, aged 19 to 35, were examined using the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale, the WAIS-III and Strauss and Carpenter social and occupational functional outcome scale. Premorbid intelligence and social functioning data were obtained from national standardized tests administered during high school prior to first hospitalization for schizophrenia. RESULTS: Path modeling showed that premorbid intelligence and behavioral functioning directly predicted postmorbid IQ and negative symptoms, and indirectly predicted postmorbid social and occupational functioning via negative symptoms. Item level analysis indicated that better social and occupational outcomes occurred in a group with few negative symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: Premorbid functioning, postmorbid IQ and negative symptoms are related, yet the relationship between premorbid functioning and postmorbid functional outcomes appears to be mediated by postmorbid negative symptoms.

Self-report of family functioning and risk for psychotic disorders in male adolescents with behavioural disturbances.

OBJECTIVE: Previous studies indicate that a poor family environment might affect vulnerability for the later manifestation of psychotic illness. The current study aims to examine family functioning prior to the onset of psychosis. METHOD: Subjects were 42,948, 17-year old males with behavioural disturbances who were asked about the functioning of their family by the Israeli Draft Board. Data on later psychiatric hospitalizations were obtained from a National Psychiatric Hospitalization Registry. RESULTS: Poorer self-reported family functioning was associated with greater risk for later hospitalization for psychosis [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) = 1.16, 95% CI = 1.05-1.27], with a trend in the same direction for schizophrenia (adjusted HR = 1.1, 95% CI = 0.98-1.24). CONCLUSION: In male adolescents with behavioural disturbances, perceived poorer family functioning is associated with increased risk for non-affective psychotic disorders and schizophrenia. These data do not enable us to determine if perceived familial dysfunction increases vulnerability for psychosis, if premorbid behavioural abnormalities disrupt family life, or neither.

Elaboration on immigration and risk for schizophrenia.

BACKGROUND: Being a small and culturally different minority, or having a different appearance, has been invoked to account for the increased prevalence of psychotic disorders among immigrants. The majority of the Jewish Israeli population are first- or second-generation immigrants from Europe, North Africa or Asia, and during the late 1980s and 1990s, 885 000 persons immigrated to Israel from the former Soviet Union and 43 000 immigrated from Ethiopia. These Ethiopian immigrants came from a very different culture compared to the rest of the population, and have a distinct appearance. To further understand the association between immigration and schizophrenia, we compared risk for later schizophrenia between adolescents who immigrated from Ethiopia with risk among the other immigrant groups, and with native-born Israelis. MethodOf 661 792 adolescents consecutively screened by the Israeli Draft Board, 557 154 were native-born Israelis and 104 638 were immigrants. Hospitalization for schizophrenia was ascertained using a National Psychiatric Hospitalization Case Registry. All analyses controlled for socio-economic status (SES). RESULTS: Risk for schizophrenia was increased among both first- [hazard ratio (HR) 1.62, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.18-2.22] and second-generation immigrants [HR 1.41, 95% CI 1.01-1.95 (one immigrant parent) and HR 1.49, 95% CI 1.11-2.0 (two immigrant parents)]. When risk for schizophrenia was calculated for each immigrant group separately, immigrants from Ethiopia were at highest risk of later schizophrenia (HR 2.95, 95% CI 1.88-4.65). ConclusionThis comparison between diverse groups of immigrants supports the notion that immigrants who differ in culture and appearance from the host population are at increased risk for schizophrenia.

A chronological perspective on suicide--the last days of life.

A combined psychological autopsy and narrative approach was used to study the completed suicides of 67 Israeli soldiers. Three issues were addressed. First, the authors examined the typology of the life narratives of suicide completed during active army duty. Second, focusing on the last 3 weeks of the soldiers' lives, they sought to examine their triggers for suicide, emotional state of mind, army duty functioning, and communication of suicidal intent. Finally, they examined military responses to communication of intent, help provision, and help acceptance. Four types of narratives were identified: regressive, stable, tragic (progression and sudden collapse), and romantic (ups and downs). During the last days of life, suicide completers exhibited a split between an emotional state of mind (evidencing an emotional deterioration) and a behavioral military functioning, which was mostly stable. The analysis also revealed a resistance to receive help and a resistance to provide help, both of which impeded intervention. The gap between functioning and emotional distress in suicidal individuals and the incongruence between crisis and help are highlighted. The need to educate military personnel to look beyond duty functioning and the need to develop clear guideline about referrals to professional helps are discussed.

Accuracy of self-reported premorbid functioning in schizophrenia.

BACKGROUND: Information on premorbid functioning is often based on patients recalling their past. Premorbid functioning is relevant as it is associated with treatment response and other outcomes. The extent to which memory impairments of persons with schizophrenia may bias such reporting has not been investigated. The purpose of the current study was to assess the extent to which persons with schizophrenia might exhibit biased reporting relative to controls. METHODS: Seventy males with schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder and 51 males with no psychiatric symptoms participated in the study. Contemporaneous and retrospective reports from a behavioral functioning assessment conducted as part of the Israeli Draft Board were compared. This assessment routinely administered to all 17 years old males in the country assesses social functioning, individual autonomy, organizational ability, physical activity and functioning in structured environments. We compared the groups on the Draft Board behavioral measures at age 17 and at re-assessment. We also examined the relationship between symptom severity, neuropsychological performance and differences between age 17 and current behavioral assessment scores. RESULTS: In a repeated measures MANCOVA of the five measures there was no overall significant difference in accuracy of reporting between persons with schizophrenia and those without. Both groups showed a slight tendency to glorify their past. Consistency of reporting was not significantly correlated with neuropsychological performance or levels of psychotic symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: We found that when reporting on personal and social functioning during teen age years persons with schizophrenia report with the same level of consistency as persons without schizophrenia. This suggests that self-report of premorbid functioning of persons with schizophrenia can be trusted as being reasonably accurate.

Cognitive performance of male adolescents is lower than controls across psychiatric disorders: a population-based study.

OBJECTIVE: Psychiatric patients, as well as humans or experimental animals with brain lesions, often concurrently manifest behavioral deviations and subtle cognitive impairments. This study tested the hypothesis that as a group, adolescents suffering from psychiatric disorders score worse on cognitive tests compared with controls. METHOD: As part of the assessment for eligibility to serve in the military, the entire, unselected population of 16-17-year old male Israelis undergo cognitive testing and screening for psychopathology by the Draft Board. We retrieved the cognitive test scores of 19 075 adolescents who were assigned any psychiatric diagnosis, and compared them with the scores of 243 507 adolescents without psychiatric diagnoses. RESULTS: Mean test scores of cases were significantly poorer then controls for all diagnostic groups, except for eating disorders. Effect sizes ranged from 0.3 to 1.6. CONCLUSION: As group, adolescent males with psychiatric disorders manifest at least subtle impairments in cognitive functioning.

Epidemiology of suicide in Israel: a nationwide population study.

BACKGROUND: In Israel, some population characteristics and lifestyle patterns make epidemiological research on suicide of particular interest. The Israeli population is characterized by ethnic diversity, with a multi-religious, multi-national mosaic of Jews and Arabs. These subgroups also vary in their suicidal behavior. The aims of the present study were to examine the trends in suicide incidence rates in Israel from 1984 to 1994, to identify sub-populations at high risk for suicide and to identify suicide methods associated with increased risk. METHODS: Suicide rate trends in Israel over the period from 1984 to 1994 were examined for four subgroups: Jewish men and women, and Arab men and women. Cases of undetermined external cause (UEC) of death were also considered. Mortality data were obtained from the computerized data files of the Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics, which includes cause of death and sociodemographic variables. Suicide was classified according to the ICD-9 codes. RESULTS: Suicide rates were higher for Jews than for Arabs, and higher for men than for women. The rates among both population and sex groups increased directly with age. A significant increase over the years studied was found for Jewish men, particularly in the 18- to 21-year-old age group. An increase in the use of firearms was noted, mainly in the groups in which total suicide rates increased. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this study highlight the need for further studies to identify both sub-populations at high risk for suicide, and societal trends such as lifestyles, immigration, military service, and media exposure to violence, as first steps toward planning of intervention programs to reduce suicide rates.

Family separations in the military.

Family separations are an intrinsic part of military life. The temporary loss of a family member through deployment brings unique stresses to a family in three different stages: predeployment, survival, and reunion. Most families adapt to these stresses well. In families without adequate coping skills, however, these stresses can lead to problems which the family presents to the health care system. Health care providers must be aware of these stresses, the high-risk families, their clinical manifestations, and techniques for preventing and treating them. This article provides some help for health care providers dealing with these issues.