Correction: Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0159909.].

THE OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS EXPERIMENT (OLYMPEX).

OLYMPEX is a comprehensive field campaign to study how precipitation in Pacific storms is modified by passage over coastal mountains.

Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation.

Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change.

Incorporating cold-air pooling into downscaled climate models increases potential refugia for snow-dependent species within the Sierra Nevada Ecoregion, CA.

We present a unique water-balance approach for modeling snowpack under historic, current and future climates throughout the Sierra Nevada Ecoregion. Our methodology uses a finer scale (270 m) than previous regional studies and incorporates cold-air pooling, an atmospheric process that sustains cooler temperatures in topographic depressions thereby mitigating snowmelt. Our results are intended to support management and conservation of snow-dependent species, which requires characterization of suitable habitat under current and future climates. We use the wolverine (Gulo gulo) as an example species and investigate potential habitat based on the depth and extent of spring snowpack within four National Park units with proposed wolverine reintroduction programs. Our estimates of change in spring snowpack conditions under current and future climates are consistent with recent studies that generally predict declining snowpack. However, model development at a finer scale and incorporation of cold-air pooling increased the persistence of April 1st snowpack. More specifically, incorporation of cold-air pooling into future climate projections increased April 1st snowpack by 6.5% when spatially averaged over the study region and the trajectory of declining April 1st snowpack reverses at mid-elevations where snow pack losses are mitigated by topographic shading and cold-air pooling. Under future climates with sustained or increased precipitation, our results indicate a high likelihood for the persistence of late spring snowpack at elevations above approximately 2,800 m and identify potential climate refugia sites for snow-dependent species at mid-elevations, where significant topographic shading and cold-air pooling potential exist.

Spatial heterogeneity in ecologically important climate variables at coarse and fine scales in a high-snow mountain landscape.

Climate plays an important role in determining the geographic ranges of species. With rapid climate change expected in the coming decades, ecologists have predicted that species ranges will shift large distances in elevation and latitude. However, most range shift assessments are based on coarse-scale climate models that ignore fine-scale heterogeneity and could fail to capture important range shift dynamics. Moreover, if climate varies dramatically over short distances, some populations of certain species may only need to migrate tens of meters between microhabitats to track their climate as opposed to hundreds of meters upward or hundreds of kilometers poleward. To address these issues, we measured climate variables that are likely important determinants of plant species distributions and abundances (snow disappearance date and soil temperature) at coarse and fine scales at Mount Rainier National Park in Washington State, USA. Coarse-scale differences across the landscape such as large changes in elevation had expected effects on climatic variables, with later snow disappearance dates and lower temperatures at higher elevations. However, locations separated by small distances (∼20 m), but differing by vegetation structure or topographic position, often experienced differences in snow disappearance date and soil temperature as great as locations separated by large distances (>1 km). Tree canopy gaps and topographic depressions experienced later snow disappearance dates than corresponding locations under intact canopy and on ridges. Additionally, locations under vegetation and on topographic ridges experienced lower maximum and higher minimum soil temperatures. The large differences in climate we observed over small distances will likely lead to complex range shift dynamics and could buffer species from the negative effects of climate change.

A prospective study of diagnosis of Toxoplasma gondii infection after bone marrow transplantation.

Active infection with Toxoplasma gondii in immunocompromised transplant recipients can lead to toxoplasmosis, which may have a rapid disease course and in some cases be fatal. It is of paramount importance to diagnose toxoplasmosis at an early stage, and to initiate specific treatment to improve the outcome. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) is today the primary diagnostic tool to diagnose toxoplasmosis in immunocompromised patients. Timely diagnosis may, however, be difficult if toxoplasmosis is at first asymptomatic. To investigate the magnitude of toxoplasmosis after bone marrow transplantation (BMT), we conducted a screening study by PCR where 21 autologous and 12 allogeneic BMT recipients were included. Peripheral blood samples were taken one week prior to BMT; thereafter, blood samples were drawn weekly for the first 6 months, and monthly up to one year after BMT. The samples were analyzed by conventional PCR and real-time PCR. T. gondii DNA was detected in peripheral blood from one patient 5 days post allogeneic BMT. There were no clinical signs of toxoplasmosis. Medical records were reviewed and showed a previously undiagnosed eye infection in another allogeneic BMT recipient. These two patients were seropositive for T. gondii. We concluded that monitoring for T. gondii DNA in peripheral blood samples using PCR might be a valuable method for identifying toxoplasma-seropositive stem cell transplant recipients.

Sexual deception as a social-exchange process: development of a behavior-based sexual deception scale.

The use of deception in association with sexual encounters may take many forms, ranging from outright lies to more subtle, evasive manipulations. To address such deceptions, a behavior-based sexual deception scale was developed utilizing social exchange theory. Participants were 267 individuals associated with two large universities who were surveyed regarding different aspects of their sexual deceptive behaviors. In addition, items addressing sexually related behaviors and attitudes were assessed for validation purposes. Principal components analysis identified three components of sexual deception, labeled Blatant Lying, Self-Serving, and Avoiding Confrontation. Confirmatory factor analysis verified the resulting structure, and promising validity was noted. In general, those using any of these deceptions reported more sexual partners and one-night stands. Those telling blatant lies to have sex were more likely to report greater needs for sex, while those using self-serving lies or having sex to avoid confrontation experienced greater worry about partner loss. Men were more likely to use blatant lies to have sex, while women were more likely to have sex to avoid confrontation. Results support sexual deception as an exchange process, with sex for pleasure and positive relationship outcomes acting as rewards, and unwanted sex and deception consequences as costs. Implications for health interventions and primary prevention applications are discussed.