Evaluation of long-lasting insecticidal net distribution through schools in Southern Tanzania.

Universal coverage with effective vector control remains the mainstay of malaria vector control in sub-Saharan Africa. Tanzania has utilized a number of mechanisms for the maintenance of long-lasting insecticidal net (LLIN) coverage over time. Schools have been identified as one potential channel for continuous distribution of LLIN. This research aims to evaluate an annual school-based LLIN distribution programme in Tanzania that began in 2013, called the School Net Programme (SNP). Following each of the first four rounds of SNP distribution, a household survey was conducted in intervention and comparison districts in Southern and Lake zones of Tanzania (N = 5083 households). Measures of ownership, access and use were compared between intervention and comparison districts. Determinants of reach were assessed in intervention districts. Population access to an LLIN increased from 63.1% (95% CI: 58.8, 67.5) to 76.5% (95% CI: 72.9, 80.0) in the intervention districts between the first and last surveys. Access also rose in the comparison districts from 51.4% (95% CI: 46.9, 55.9) to 79.8% (95% CI: 77.3, 82.0) following mass distribution and implementation of school-based distribution during the study period. LLIN use increased in intervention districts from 44.9% (95% CI: 40.5, 49.3) to 65.6% (95% CI: 59.4, 71.8) and from 57.2% (95% CI: 49.7, 64.7) to 77.4% (95% CI: 69.3, 85.5) specifically amongst primary school-aged children. Households reached by the SNP were wealthier households with children enrolled in school. The SNP in Tanzania was able to maintain population level LLIN ownership, use and access in the absence of mass distribution. The SNP successfully reached households that housed school-aged children. Alternative delivery strategies may need to be considered to reach households without children enrolled in schools that experienced fewer benefits from the programme.

Can school-based distribution be used to maintain coverage of long-lasting insecticide treated bed nets: evidence from a large scale programme in southern Tanzania?

Many sub-Saharan African countries have achieved substantial gains in insecticide treated bednet coverage since 2005. The Tanzania National Malaria Control Programme identified school-based net distribution as one potential 'keep-up' strategy for the purpose of maintaining long-lasting insecticidal net (LLIN) coverage after a nationwide mass campaign in 2011. The School Net Programme (SNP) was implemented in three regions of southern Tanzania and distributed one LLIN to each enrolled child attending schools in primary grades (standards) 1, 3, 5 and 7, and secondary grades (forms) 2 and 4 in 2013 and again with slightly modified eligibility criteria in 2014 and 2015. Household surveys in the programme area as well as in a control area were conducted after each of the SNP distributions to measure ownership and use of long-lasting insecticide treated nets. Ownership of at least one LLIN after the first distribution was 76.1% (95% CI 70.8-80.7) in the intervention area and 78.6% (95% CI 74.4-82.3) in the control area. After the second distribution, ownership of at least one LLIN had dropped significantly in the control area to 65.4% (95% CI 59.5-71.0) in 2015 (P < 0.001), while coverage in the intervention area was maintained at 79.3% (95% CI 75.4 × 82.6). Ownership of at least one LLIN in intervention area remained stable following the second round of net distribution. During the same period LLIN ownership, especially of enough nets to ensure all household member access, fell significantly in the control area. These results demonstrate that the SNP may be sufficient to maintain stable LLIN coverage following a mass distribution of LLINs.

The effect of delayed death in HIV/AIDS models.

HIV-infected patients who receive treatment survive for some years after they have acquired the disease. The received treatment causes sustained reduction of viral reproduction by improving the immune function, leading to prolonged progression period to AIDS development. This prolonged progression period has created variability in survival times that affects estimates produced using mathematical models that do not include delay in disease related mortality. This paper investigates the effect of including delay in AIDS death occurrence in HIV/AIDS transmission models. A simple mathematical model with two stages of HIV progression is developed and extended to include time delay in the occurrence of AIDS deaths. Numerical simulations indicate that time delay changes the mortality curves considerably but has less effect on the proportion of infectives. The study highlights the importance of incorporating delay in models of HIV/AIDS for the production of accurate HIV/AIDS estimates.

Assessing the effects of mosquito nets on malaria mortality using a space time model: a case study of Rufiji and Ifakara Health and Demographic Surveillance System sites in rural Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Although malaria decline has been observed in most sub-Saharan African countries, the disease still represents a significant public health burden in Tanzania. There are contradictions on the effect of ownership of at least one mosquito net at household on malaria mortality. This study presents a Bayesian modelling framework for the analysis of the effect of ownership of at least one mosquito net at household on malaria mortality with environmental factors as confounder variables. METHODS: The analysis used longitudinal data collected in Rufiji and Ifakara Health Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) sites for the period of 1999-2011 and 2002-2012, respectively. Bayesian framework modelling approach using integrated nested laplace approximation (INLA) package in R software was used. The space time models were established to assess the effect of ownership of mosquito net on malaria mortality in 58 villages in the study area. RESULTS: The results show that an increase of 10 % in ownership of mosquito nets at village level had an average of 5.2 % decrease inall age malaria deaths (IRR = 0.948, 95 % CI = 0.917, 0.977) in Rufiji HDSS and 12.1 % decrease in all age malaria deaths (IRR = 0.879, 95 % CI = 0.806, 0.959) in Ifakara HDSS. In children under 5 years, results show an average of 5.4 % decrease of malaria deaths (IRR = 0.946, 95 % CI = 0.909, 0.982) in Rufiji HDSS and 10 % decrease of malaria deaths (IRR = 0.899, 95 % CI = 0.816, 0.995) in Ifakara HDSS. Model comparison show that model with spatial and temporal random effects was the best fitting model compared to other models without spatial and temporal, and with spatial-temporal interaction effects. CONCLUSION: This modelling framework is appropriate and provides useful approaches to understanding the effect of mosquito nets for targeting malaria control intervention. Furthermore, ownership of mosquito nets at household showed a significant impact on malaria mortality.

Spatial and space-time clustering of mortality due to malaria in rural Tanzania: evidence from Ifakara and Rufiji Health and Demographic Surveillance System sites.

BACKGROUND: Although, malaria control interventions are widely implemented to eliminate malaria disease, malaria is still a public health problem in Tanzania. Understanding the risk factors, spatial and space-time clustering for malaria deaths is essential for targeting malaria interventions and effective control measures. In this study, spatial methods were used to identify local malaria mortality clustering using verbal autopsy data. METHODS: The analysis used longitudinal data collected in Rufiji and Ifakara Health Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) sites for the period 1999-2011 and 2002-2012, respectively. Two models were used. The first was a non-spatial model where logistic regression was used to determine a household's characteristic or an individual's risk of malaria deaths. The second was a spatial Poisson model applied to estimate spatial clustering of malaria mortality using SaTScan™, with age as a covariate. ArcGIS Geographical Information System software was used to map the estimates obtained to show clustering and the variations related to malaria mortality. RESULTS: A total of 11,462 deaths in 33 villages and 9328 deaths in 25 villages in Rufiji and Ifakara HDSS, respectively were recorded. Overall, 2699 (24 %) of the malaria deaths in Rufiji and 1596 (17.1 %) in Ifakara were recorded during the study period. Children under five had higher odds of dying from malaria compared with their elderly counterparts aged five and above for Rufiji (AOR = 2.05, 95 % CI = 1.87-2.25), and Ifakara (AOR = 2.33, 95 % CI = 2.05-2.66), respectively. In addition, ownership of mosquito net had a protective effect against dying with malaria in both HDSS sites. Moreover, villages with consistently significant malaria mortality clusters were detected in both HDSS sites during the study period. CONCLUSIONS: Clustering of malaria mortality indicates heterogeneity in risk. Improving targeted malaria control and treatment interventions to high risk clusters may lead to the reduction of malaria deaths at the household and probably at country level. Furthermore, ownership of mosquito nets and age appeared to be important predictors for malaria deaths.

Space-Time Smoothing of Complex Survey Data: Small Area Estimation for Child Mortality.

Many people living in low and middle-income countries are not covered by civil registration and vital statistics systems. Consequently, a wide variety of other types of data including many household sample surveys are used to estimate health and population indicators. In this paper we combine data from sample surveys and demographic surveillance systems to produce small area estimates of child mortality through time. Small area estimates are necessary to understand geographical heterogeneity in health indicators when full-coverage vital statistics are not available. For this endeavor spatio-temporal smoothing is beneficial to alleviate problems of data sparsity. The use of conventional hierarchical models requires careful thought since the survey weights may need to be considered to alleviate bias due to non-random sampling and non-response. The application that motivated this work is estimation of child mortality rates in five-year time intervals in regions of Tanzania. Data come from Demographic and Health Surveys conducted over the period 1991-2010 and two demographic surveillance system sites. We derive a variance estimator of under five years child mortality that accounts for the complex survey weighting. For our application, the hierarchical models we consider include random effects for area, time and survey and we compare models using a variety of measures including the conditional predictive ordinate (CPO). The method we propose is implemented via the fast and accurate integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA).

Clustering of vector control interventions has important consequences for their effectiveness: a modelling study.

Vector control interventions have resulted in considerable reductions in malaria morbidity and mortality. When universal coverage cannot be achieved for financial or logistical reasons, the spatial arrangement of vector control is potentially important for optimizing benefits. This study investigated the effect of spatial clustering of vector control interventions on reducing the population of biting mosquitoes. A discrete-space continuous-time mathematical model of mosquito population dynamics and dispersal was extended to incorporate vector control interventions of insecticide treated bednets (ITNs), Indoor residual Spraying (IRS), and larviciding. Simulations were run at varying levels of coverage and degree of spatial clustering. At medium to high coverage levels of each of the interventions or in combination was more effective to spatially spread these interventions than to cluster them. Suggesting that when financial resources are limited, unclustered distribution of these interventions is more effective. Although it is often stated that locally high coverage is needed to achieve a community effect of ITNs or IRS, our results suggest that if the coverage of ITNs or IRS are insufficient to achieve universal coverage, and there is no targeting of high risk areas, the overall effects on mosquito densities are much greater if they are distributed in an unclustered way, rather than clustered in specific localities. Also, given that interventions are often delivered preferentially to accessible areas, and are therefore clustered, our model results show this may be inefficient. This study provides evidence that the effectiveness of an intervention can be highly dependent on its spatial distribution. Vector control plans should consider the spatial arrangement of any intervention package to ensure effectiveness is maximized.

Gender-based distributional skewness of the United Republic of Tanzania's health workforce cadres: a cross-sectional health facility survey.

BACKGROUND: While severe shortages, inadequate skills and a geographical imbalance of health personnel have been consistently documented over the years as long term critical challenges in the health sector of the United Republic of Tanzania, there is limited evidence on the gender-based distribution of the health workforce and its likely implications. Extant evidence shows that some people may not seek healthcare unless they have access to a provider of their gender. This paper, therefore, assesses the gender-based distribution of the United Republic of Tanzania's health workforce cadres. METHODS: This is a secondary analysis of data collected in a cross-sectional health facility survey on health system strengthening in the United Republic of Tanzania in 2008. During the survey, 88 health facilities, selected randomly from 8 regions, yielded 815 health workers (HWs) eligible for the current analysis. While Chi-square was used for testing associations in the bivariate analysis, multivariate analysis was conducted using logistic regression to assess the relationship between gender and each of the cadres involved in the analysis. RESULTS: The mean age of the HWs was 39.7, ranging from 15 to 63 years. Overall, 75% of the HWs were women. The proportion of women among maternal and child health aides or medical attendants (MCHA/MA), nurses and midwives was 86%, 86% and 91%, respectively, while their proportion among clinical officers (COs) and medical doctors (MDs) was 28% and 21%, respectively. Multivariate analysis revealed that the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) that a HW was a female (baseline category is "male") for each cadre was: MCHA/MA, OR = 3.70, 95% CI 2.16-6.33; nurse, OR = 5.61, 95% CI 3.22-9.78; midwife, OR = 2.74, 95% CI 1.44-5.20; CO, OR = 0.08, 95% CI 0.04-0.17 and MD, OR = 0.04, 95% CI 0.02-0.09. CONCLUSION: The distribution of the United Republic of Tanzania's health cadres is dramatically gender-skewed, a reflection of gender inequality in health career choices. MCHA/MA, nursing and midwifery cadres are large and female-dominant, whereas COs and MDs are fewer in absolute numbers and male-dominant. While a need for more staff is necessary for an effective delivery of quality health services, adequate representation of women in highly trained cadres is imperative to enhance responses to some gender-specific roles and needs.

Mathematical modelling of mosquito dispersal in a heterogeneous environment.

Mosquito dispersal is a key behavioural factor that affects the persistence and resurgence of several vector-borne diseases. Spatial heterogeneity of mosquito resources, such as hosts and breeding sites, affects mosquito dispersal behaviour and consequently affects mosquito population structures, human exposure to vectors, and the ability to control disease transmission. In this paper, we develop and simulate a discrete-space continuous-time mathematical model to investigate the impact of dispersal and heterogeneous distribution of resources on the distribution and dynamics of mosquito populations. We build an ordinary differential equation model of the mosquito life cycle and replicate it across a hexagonal grid (multi-patch system) that represents two-dimensional space. We use the model to estimate mosquito dispersal distances and to evaluate the effect of spatial repellents as a vector control strategy. We find evidence of association between heterogeneity, dispersal, spatial distribution of resources, and mosquito population dynamics. Random distribution of repellents reduces the distance moved by mosquitoes, offering a promising strategy for disease control.

Do health workers' preferences influence their practices? Assessment of providers' attitude and personal use of new treatment recommendations for management of uncomplicated malaria, Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Due to growing antimalarial drug resistance, Tanzania changed malaria treatment policies twice within a decade. First in 2001 chloroquine (CQ) was replaced by sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) for management of uncomplicated malaria and by late 2006, SP was replaced by artemether-lumefantrine (AL). We assessed health workers' attitudes and personal practices following the first treatment policy change, at six months post-change and two years later. METHODS: Two cross-sectional surveys were conducted in 2002 and 2004 among healthcare workers in three districts in South-East Tanzania using semi-structured questionnaires. Attitudes were assessed by enquiring which antimalarial was considered most suitable for the management of uncomplicated malaria for the three patient categories: i) children below 5; ii) older children and adults; and iii) pregnant women. Practice was ascertained by asking which antimalarial was used in the last malaria episode by the health worker him/herself and/or dependants. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with reported attitudes and practices towards the new treatment recommendations. RESULTS: A total of 400 health workers were interviewed; 254 and 146 in the first and second surveys, respectively. SP was less preferred antimalarial in hospitals and private health facilities (p<0.01) in the first round, and the preference worsened in the second round. In the first round, clinicians did not prefer SP for children below age of 5 and pregnant women (p<0.01), but two years later, they did not prefer it for all patient scenarios. SP was the most commonly used antimalarial for management of the last malaria episode for health workers and their dependants in both rounds, in the public sector (p<0.01). Health workers in the dispensaries had the highest odds of using SP for their own treatment [adjusted OR- first round: 6.7 (95%CI: 1.9-23.4); crude OR- second round: 4.5 (1.5-13.3)]. CONCLUSION: Following changes in malaria treatment recommendations, most health workers did not prefer the new antimalarial drug, and their preferences worsened over time. However, many of them still used the newly recommended drug for management of their own or family members' malaria episode. This indicates that, other factors than providers' attitude may have more influence in their personal treatment practices.

Verbal autopsy completion rate and factors associated with undetermined cause of death in a rural resource-poor setting of Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Verbal autopsy (VA) is a widely used tool to assign probable cause of death in areas with inadequate vital registration systems. Its uses in priority setting and health planning are well documented in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and Asia. However, there is a lack of data related to VA processing and completion rates in assigning causes of death in a community. There is also a lack of data on factors associated with undetermined causes of death documented in SSA. There is a need for such information for understanding the gaps in VA processing and better estimating disease burden. OBJECTIVE: The study's intent was to determine the completion rate of VA and factors associated with assigning undetermined causes of death in rural Tanzania. METHODS: A database of deaths reported from the Ifakara Health and Demographic Surveillance System from 2002 to 2007 was used. Completion rates were determined at the following stages of processing: 1) death identified; 2) VA interviews conducted; 3) VA forms submitted to physicians; 4) coding and assigning of cause of death. Logistic regression was used to determine factors associated with deaths coded as "undetermined." RESULTS: The completion rate of VA after identification of death and the VA interview ranged from 83% in 2002 and 89% in 2007. Ninety-four percent of deaths submitted to physicians were assigned a specific cause, with 31% of the causes coded as undetermined. Neonates and child deaths that occurred outside health facilities were associated with a high rate of undetermined classification (33%, odds ratio [OR] = 1.33, 95% confidence interval [CI] (1.05, 1.67), p = 0.016). Respondents reporting high education levels were less likely to be associated with deaths that were classified as undetermined (24%, OR = 0.76, 95% CI (0.60, -0.96), p = 0.023). Being a child of the deceased compared to a partner (husband or wife) was more likely to be associated with undetermined cause of death classification (OR = 1.35, 95% CI (1.04, 1.75), p = 0.023). CONCLUSION: Every year, there is a high completion rate of VA in the initial stages of processing; however, a number of VAs are lost during the processing. Most of the losses occur at the final step, physicians' determination of cause of death. The type of respondent and place of death had a significant effect on final determination of the plausible cause of death. The finding provides some insight into the factors affecting full coverage of verbal autopsy diagnosis and the limitations of causes of death based on VA in SSA. Although physician review is the most commonly used method in ascertaining probable cause of death, we suggest further work needs to be done to address the challenges faced by physicians in interpreting VA forms. There is need for an alternative to or improvement of the methods of physician review.

Multiple sexual partners and condom use among 10 - 19 year-olds in four districts in Tanzania: what do we learn?

BACKGROUND: Although some studies in Tanzania have addressed the question of sexuality and STIs among adolescents, mostly those aged 15 - 19 years, evidence on how multiple sexual partners influence condom use among 10 - 19 year-olds is limited. This study attempts to bridge this gap by testing a hypothesis that sexual relationships with multiple partners in the age group 10 - 19 years spurs condom use during sex in four districts in Tanzania. METHODS: Secondary analysis was performed using data from the Adolescents Module of the cross-sectional household survey on Maternal, Newborn and Child Health (MNCH) that was done in Kigoma, Kilombero, Rufiji and Ulanga districts, Tanzania in 2008. A total of 612 adolescents resulting from a random sample of 1200 households participated in this study. Pearson Chi-Square was used as a test of association between multiple sexual partners and condom use. Multivariate logistic regression model was fitted to the data to assess the effect of multiple sexual partners on condom use, having adjusted for potential confounding variables. STATA (10) statistical software was used to carry out this process at 5% two-sided significance level. RESULTS: Of the 612 adolescents interviewed, 23.4% reported being sexually active and 42.0% of these reported having had multiple (> 1) sexual partners in the last 12 months. The overall prevalence of condom use among them was 39.2%. The proportion using a condom at the last sexual intercourse was higher among those who knew that they can get a condom if they want than those who did not. No evidence of association was found between multiple sexual partners and condom use (OR = 0.77, 95% CI = 0.35 - 1.67, P = 0.504). With younger adolescents (10 - 14 years) being a reference, condom use was associated with age group (15 - 19: OR = 3.69, 95% CI = 1.21 - 11.25, P = 0.022) and district of residence (Kigoma: OR = 7.45, 95% CI = 1.79 - 31.06, P = 0.006; Kilombero: OR = 8.89, 95% CI = 2.91 - 27.21, P < 0.001; Ulanga: OR = 5.88, 95% CI = 2.00 - 17.31, P = 0.001), Rufiji being a reference category. CONCLUSION: No evidence of association was found between multiple sexual partners and condom use among adolescents in the study area. The large proportion of adolescents who engage in sexual activity without using condoms, even those with multiple partners, perpetuates the risk of transmission of HIV infections in the community. Strategies such as sex education and easing access to and making a friendly environment for condom availability are important to address the risky sexual behaviour among adolescents.

Under-five mortality: spatial-temporal clusters in Ifakara HDSS in South-eastern Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Childhood mortality remains an important subject, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa where levels are still unacceptably high. To achieve the set Millennium Development Goals 4, calls for comprehensive application of the proven cost-effective interventions. Understanding spatial clustering of childhood mortality can provide a guide in targeting the interventions in a more strategic approach to the population where mortality is highest and the interventions are most likely to make an impact. METHODS: Annual child mortality rates were calculated for each village, using person-years observed as the denominator. Kulldorff's spatial scan statistic was used for the identification and testing of childhood mortality clusters. All under-five deaths that occurred within a 10-year period from 1997 to 2006 were included in the analysis. Villages were used as units of clusters; all 25 health and demographic surveillance sites (HDSS) villages in the Ifakara health and demographic surveillance area were included. RESULTS: Of the 10 years of analysis, statistically significant spatial clustering was identified in only 2 years (1998 and 2001). In 1998, the statistically significant cluster (p < 0.01) was composed of nine villages. A total of 106 childhood deaths were observed against an expected 77.3. The other statistically significant cluster (p < 0.05) identified in 2001 was composed of only one village. In this cluster, 36 childhood deaths were observed compared to 20.3 expected. Purely temporal analysis indicated that the year 2003 was a significant cluster (p < 0.05). Total deaths were 393 and expected were 335.8. Spatial-temporal analysis showed that nine villages were identified as statistically significant clusters (p < 0.05) for the period covering January 1997-December 1998. Total observed deaths in this cluster were 205 while 150.7 were expected. CONCLUSION: There is evidence of spatial clustering in childhood mortality within the Ifakara HDSS. Further investigations are needed to explore the source of clustering and identify strategies of reaching the cluster population with the existing effective interventions. However, that should happen alongside delivery of interventions to the broader population.

Clustering of under-five mortality in Rufiji Health and Demographic Surveillance System in rural Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Less than 5 years remain before the 2015 mark when countries will be evaluated on their achievements for the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). The MDG 4 and 6 call for a reduction of child mortality by two-thirds and combating malaria, HIV/AIDS, TB, and other diseases, respectively. To accelerate the achievement of these goals, focused allocation of resources and high deployment of cost-effective interventions is paramount. The knowledge of spatial and temporal distribution of diseases is important for health authorities to prioritize and allocate resources. METHODS: To identify possible significant clusters, we used SatTScan software, and analyzed 2,745 cases of under-five with 134,099 person-years for the period between 1999and 2008. Mortality rates for every year were calculated, likewise a spatial scan statistic was used to test for clusters of total under-five mortalities in both space and time. RESULTS: A number of significant clusters from space, time, and space-time analysis were identified in several locations for a period of 10 years in the Rufiji Demographic Surveillance Site (RDSS). These locations show that villages within the clusters have an elevated risk of under-five deaths. The spatial analysis identified three significant clusters. The first cluster had only one village, Kibiti A (p < 0.05, the second cluster involved five villages (Mtawanya, Pagae, Kibiti A, Machepe, and Kibiti B; p < 0.05), the third cluster involved one village, Jaribu Mpakani (p < 0.05). A space-time cluster of 10 villages for the period between 1999 and 2002 with a radius of 14.73 km was discovered with the highest risk (RR 1.6, p < 0.001). The mortality rates were very high for the years 1999-2002 according to the analysis. The death rates were 33.5, 26.4, 24.1, and 24.9, respectively. Total childhood mortality rates calculated for the period of 10 years were 21.0 per 1,000 person-years. CONCLUSION: During the 10 years of analysis, mortality seemed to decrease in RDSS. The mortality decline should be taken with caution because the Demographic Surveillance System is not statistically representative of the whole population; therefore, inference should not be made to the general population of Tanzania. The pattern observed could be attributed to demographic and weather characteristics of RDSS. This should provide new insights for further studies and interventions toward reducing under-five mortality.