Sources of variability in Luminex bead-based cytokine assays: Evidence from twelve years of multi-site proficiency testing.

Bead array assays, such as those sold by Luminex, BD Biosciences, Sartorius, Abcam and other companies, are a well-established platform for multiplexed quantification of cytokines and other biomarkers in both clinical and discovery research environments. In 2011, the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID)-funded External Quality Assurance Program Oversight Laboratory (EQAPOL) established a proficiency assessment program to monitor participating laboratories performing multiplex cytokine measurements using Luminex bead array technology. During every assessment cycle, each site was sent an assay kit, a protocol, and blinded samples of human sera spiked with recombinant cytokines. Site results were then evaluated for performance relative to peer laboratories. After over a decade of biannual assessments, the cumulative dataset contained over 15,500 bead array observations collected at more than forty laboratories in twelve countries. These data were evaluated alongside post-assessment survey results to empirically test factors that may contribute to variability and accuracy in Luminex bead-based cytokine assays. Bead material, individual technical ability, analyte, analyte concentration, and assay kit vendor were identified as significant contributors to assay performance. In contrast, the bead reader instrument model and the use of automated plate washers were found not to contribute to variability or accuracy, and sample results were found to be highly-consistent between assay kit-manufacturing lots and over time. In addition to these statistical analyses, subjective evaluations identified technical ability, instrument failure, protocol adherence, and data transcription errors as the most common causes of poor performance in the proficiency program. The findings from the EQAPOL multiplex program were then used to develop recommended best practices for bead array monitoring of human cytokines. These included collecting samples to assay as a single batch, centralizing analysis, participating in a quality assurance program, and testing samples using paramagnetic-bead kits from a single manufacturer using a standardized protocol.

Triangulation of epidemiological evidence and risk of bias evaluation: A proposed framework and applied example using formaldehyde exposure and risk of myeloid leukemias.

Evidence triangulation may help identify the impact of study design elements on study findings and to tease out biased results when evaluating potential causal relationships; however, methods for triangulating epidemiologic evidence are evolving and have not been standardized. Building upon key principles of epidemiologic evidence triangulation and risk of bias assessment, and responding to the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM) call for applied triangulation examples, the objective of this manuscript is to propose a triangulation framework and to apply it as an illustrative example to epidemiologic studies examining the possible relationship between occupational formaldehyde exposure and risk of myeloid leukemias (ML) including acute (AML) and chronic (CML) types. A nine-component triangulation framework for epidemiological evidence was developed incorporating study quality and ROB guidance from various federal health agencies (i.e., US EPA TSCA and NTP OHAT). Several components of the triangulation framework also drew from widely used epidemiological analytic tools such as stratified meta-analysis and sensitivity analysis. Regarding the applied example, fourteen studies were identified and assessed using the following primary study quality domains to explore potential key sources of bias: 1) study design and analysis; 2) study participation; 3) exposure assessment; 4) outcome assessment; and 5) potential confounding. Across studies, methodological limitations possibly contributing to biased results were observed within most domains. Interestingly, results from one study - often providing the largest and least-precise relative risk estimates, likely reflecting study biases, deviated from most primary study findings indicating no such associations. Triangulation of epidemiological evidence appears to be helpful in exploring inconsistent results for the identification of study results possibly reflecting various biases. Nonetheless, triangulation methodologies require additional development and application to real-world examples to enhance objectivity and reproducibility.

Quantifying potential marine debris sources and potential threats to penguins on the West Antarctic Peninsula.

Marine pollution is becoming ubiquitous in the environment. Observations of pollution on beaches, in the coastal ocean, and in organisms in the Antarctic are becoming distressingly common. Increasing human activity, growing tourism, and an expanding krill fishing industry along the West Antarctic Peninsula all represent potential sources of plastic pollution and other debris (collectively referred to as debris) to the region. However, the sources of these pollutants from point (pollutants released from discrete sources) versus non-point (pollutants from a large area rather than a specific source) sources are poorly understood. We used buoyant simulated particles released in a high-resolution physical ocean model to quantify pollutant loads throughout the region. We considered non-point sources of debris from the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, Bellingshausen Sea, Weddell Sea, and point source pollution from human activities including tourism, research, and fishing. We also determined possible origins for observed debris based on data from the Southern Ocean Observing System and Palmer Long-Term Ecological Research program. Our results indicate that point source pollution released in the coastal Antarctic is more likely to serve as a source for observed debris than non-point sources, and that the dominant source of pollution is region-specific. Penguin colonies in the South Shetland and Elephant Islands had the greatest debris load from point sources whereas loads from non-point sources were greatest around the southernmost colonies. Penguin colonies at Cornwallis Island and Fort Point were exposed to the highest theoretical debris loads. While these results do not include physical processes such as windage and Stokes Drift that are known to impact debris distributions and transport in the coastal ocean, these results provide critical insights to building an effective stratified sampling and monitoring effort to better understand debris distributions, concentrations, and origins throughout the West Antarctic Peninsula.

TerrANTALife 1.0 Biodiversity data checklist of known Antarctic terrestrial and freshwater life forms.

Background: Incomplete species inventories for Antarctica represent a key challenge for comprehensive ecological research and conservation in the region. Additionally, data required to understand population dynamics, rates of evolution, spatial ranges, functional traits, physiological tolerances and species interactions, all of which are fundamental to disentangle the different functional elements of Antarctic biodiversity, are mostly missing. However, much of the fauna, flora and microbiota in the emerged ice-free land of the continent have an uncertain presence and/or unresolved status, with entire biodiversity compendia of prokaryotic groups (e.g. bacteria) being missing. All the available biodiversity information requires consolidation, cross-validation, re-assessment and steady systematic inclusion in order to create a robust catalogue of biodiversity for the continent. New information: We compiled, completed and revised eukaryotic species inventories present in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems in Antarctica in a new living database: terrANTALife (version 1.0). The database includes the first integration in a compendium for many groups of eukaryotic microorganisms. We also introduce a first catalogue of amplicon sequence variants (ASVs) of prokaryotic biodiversity. Available compendia and literature to date were searched for Antarctic terrestrial and freshwater species, integrated, taxonomically harmonised and curated by experts to create comprehensive checklists of Antarctic organisms. The final inventories comprises 470 animal species (including vertebrates, free-living invertebrates and parasites), 306 plants (including all Viridiplantae: embryophytes and green algae), 997 fungal species and 434 protists (sensu lato). We also provide a first account for many groups of microorganisms, including non-lichenised fungi and multiple groups of eukaryotic unicellular species (Stramenophila, Alveolata and Rhizaria (SAR), Chromists and Amoeba), jointly referred to as "protists". In addition, we identify 1753 bacterial (obtained from 348117 ASVs) and 34 archaeal genera (from 1848 ASVs), as well as, at least, 14 virus families. We formulate a basic tree of life in Antarctica with the main lineages listed in the region and their "known-accepted-species" numbers.

Association between pancreatitis and chronic kidney disease in cats: a retrospective review of 154 cats presented to a specialty hospital between October 1, 2017, and October 1, 2022.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate an association between pancreatitis and chronic kidney disease (CKD) in cats. ANIMALS: 154 client-owned cats: 77 cats with pancreatitis and 77 control cats with no evidence of pancreatitis. METHODS: Retrospective record review from October 1, 2017, to October 1, 2022, including cats with gastrointestinal clinical signs, pancreatic lipase immunoreactivity (PLI) ≥ 8.8 µg/L or PLI 4.5 to 8.7 µg/L with sonographic evidence of pancreatitis. Control cats had a PLI ≤ 4.4 µg/L with no sonographic evidence of pancreatitis. RESULTS: Cats with pancreatitis had significantly higher International Renal Interest Society CKD stages than controls (P < .001; OR, 13 [95% CI, 6.3 to 31]), and mean creatinine was on average 0.79 mg/dL (95% CI, 0.56 to 1.0) higher than controls (P < .001; age covariate ANCOVA, P = .003). Odds of CKD in cats with pancreatitis compared to controls increased significantly with age (P = .002). Cats aged 10 to < 15 years and 15 to 20 years with pancreatitis had significantly higher prevalence of CKD stage 2 to 4 compared to controls (P < .001; OR, 10.9 [95% CI, 3.4 to 44]; and P = .001; OR, 66 [95% CI, 4.6 to > 1,000], respectively). Cats with pancreatitis had significantly more sonographic renal infarcts (P = .004; OR, 6.9 [95% CI, 1.8 to 46]) and concurrent diabetes mellitus (P = .002; OR, 6 [95% CI, 1.9 to 27]). Cats with pancreatitis were fed more exclusively dry-food diets compared to controls (P = .014). CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Pancreatitis is associated with CKD in cats. Investigating and treating these diseases concurrently early in the disease process may reduce morbidity and mortality due to progressive disease and expensive hospitalizations. Renal infarcts may be associated with pancreatitis in cats without overt cardiac disease.

Whole genome sequencing reveals stepping-stone dispersal buffered against founder effects in a range expanding seabird.

Many species are shifting their ranges in response to climate-driven environmental changes, particularly in high-latitude regions. However, the patterns of dispersal and colonization during range shifting events are not always clear. Understanding how populations are connected through space and time can reveal how species navigate a changing environment. Here, we present a fine-scale population genomics study of gentoo penguins (Pygoscelis papua), a presumed site-faithful colonial nesting species that has increased in population size and expanded its range south along the Western Antarctic Peninsula. Using whole genome sequencing, we analysed 129 gentoo penguin individuals across 12 colonies located at or near the southern range edge. Through a detailed examination of fine-scale population structure, admixture, and population divergence, we inferred that gentoo penguins historically dispersed rapidly in a stepping-stone pattern from the South Shetland Islands leading to the colonization of Anvers Island, and then the adjacent mainland Western Antarctica Peninsula. Recent southward expansion along the Western Antarctic Peninsula also followed a stepping-stone dispersal pattern coupled with limited post-divergence gene flow from colonies on Anvers Island. Genetic diversity appeared to be maintained across colonies during the historical dispersal process, and range-edge populations are still growing. This suggests large numbers of migrants may provide a buffer against founder effects at the beginning of colonization events to maintain genetic diversity similar to that of the source populations before migration ceases post-divergence. These results coupled with a continued increase in effective population size since approximately 500-800 years ago distinguish gentoo penguins as a robust species that is highly adaptable and resilient to changing climate.

Raising the 'environmental question' in social work in Canada and Scotland.

This article contributes a comparative review of social work in Canada and Scotland to international conversations about social work and the environment. The 'environmental question' of the 21st century is a radical challenge to social work developed in relation to the 'social question' of the 19th century. Work to begin to include the natural environment within high-income state social work can expect to encounter established infrastructures of thinking and doing that will be difficult to shift. We, therefore, compare guiding social work policy documents and identify points of tension that are likely to be shared across wealthy national contexts.

Systematic review of the association between talc and female reproductive tract cancers.

Talc is a hydrous magnesium sheet silicate used in cosmetic powders, ceramics, paints, rubber, and many other products. We conducted a systematic review of the potential carcinogenicity of genitally applied talc in humans. Our systematic review methods adhere to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines and incorporated aspects from the US Institute of Medicine (IOM, now the National Academy of Medicine) and several US EPA frameworks for systematic reviews, evaluating and integrating the epidemiological, animal, and mechanistic literature on talc and cancer. We conducted a comprehensive literature search. Detailed data abstraction and study quality evaluation, adapting the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA) framework, were central to our analysis. The literature search and selection process identified 40 primary studies that assessed exposure to talc and female reproductive cancer risks in humans (n = 36) and animals (n = 4). The results of our evaluation emphasize the importance of considering biological plausibility and study quality in systematic review. Integrating all streams of evidence according to the IOM framework yielded classifications of suggestive evidence of no association between perineal application of talcum powders and risk of ovarian cancer at human-relevant exposure levels. We also concluded that there is suggestive evidence of no association between genital talc application and endometrial cancer, and insufficient evidence to determine whether a causal association exists between genital talc application and cervical cancer based on a smaller but largely null body of literature.

Systematic review of the human health hazards of propylene dichloride.

Propylene dichloride (PDC) is a chlorinated substance used primarily as an intermediate in basic organic chemical manufacturing. The United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is currently evaluating PDC as a high-priority substance under the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA). We conducted a systematic review of the non-cancer and cancer hazards of PDC using the EPA TSCA and Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) frameworks. We identified 12 epidemiological, 16 toxicokinetic, 34 experimental animal, and 49 mechanistic studies. Point-of-contact respiratory effects are the most sensitive non-cancer effects after inhalation exposure, and PDC is neither a reproductive nor a developmental toxicant. PDC is not mutagenic in vivo, and while in vitro evidence is mixed, DNA strand breaks consistently occur. Nasal tumors in rats and lung tumors in mice occurred after lifetime high-level inhalation exposure. Cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) was observed in Japanese print workers exposed to high concentrations of PDC. However, co-exposures, as well as liver parasites, hepatitis, and other risk factors, may also have contributed. The cancer mode of action (MOA) analysis revealed that PDC may act through multiple biological pathways occurring sequentially and/or simultaneously, although chronic tissue damage and inflammation likely dominate. Critically, health benchmarks protective of non-cancer effects are expected to protect against cancer in humans.

Quantifying Antarctic krill connectivity across the West Antarctic Peninsula and its role in large-scale Pygoscelis penguin population dynamics.

Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) are considered a keystone species for higher trophic level predators along the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) during the austral summer. The connectivity of krill may play a critical role in predator biogeography, especially for central-place foragers such as the Pygoscelis spp. penguins that breed along the WAP during the austral summer. Antarctic krill are also heavily fished commercially; therefore, understanding population connectivity of krill is critical to effective management. Here, we used a physical ocean model to examine adult krill connectivity in this region using simulated krill with realistic diel vertical migration behaviors across four austral summers. Our results indicate that krill north and south of Low Island and the southern Bransfield Strait are nearly isolated from each other and that persistent current features play a role in this lack of inter-region connectivity. Transit and entrainment times were not correlated with penguin populations at the large spatial scales examined. However, long transit times and reduced entrainment correlate spatially with the areas where krill fishing is most intense, which heightens the risk that krill fishing may lead to limited krill availability for predators.

Adélie penguins north and east of the 'Adélie gap' continue to thrive in the face of dramatic declines elsewhere in the Antarctic Peninsula region.

While population declines among Adélie penguins and population increases among gentoo penguins on the Western Antarctic Peninsula are well established, the logistical challenges of operating in the sea ice-heavy northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula have prohibited reliable monitoring of seabirds in this region. Here we describe the findings of an expedition to the northern and eastern sides of the Antarctic Peninsula-a region at the nexus of two proposed Marine Protected Areas-to investigate the distribution and abundance of penguins in this region. We discovered several previously undocumented penguin colonies, completed direct surveys of three colonies initially discovered in satellite imagery, and re-surveyed several colonies last surveyed more than a decade ago. Whereas our expectation had been that the Peninsula itself would divide the areas undergoing ecological transition and the apparently more stable Weddell Sea region, our findings suggest that the actual transition zone lies in the so-called "Adélie gap," a 400-km stretch of coastline in which Adélies are notably absent. Our findings suggest that the region north and east of this gap represents a distinct ecoregion whose dynamics stand in sharp contrast to surrounding areas and is likely to be impacted by future conservation measures.

Mode of action assessment for propylene dichloride as a human carcinogen.

As part of a systematic review of the non-cancer and cancer hazards of propylene dichloride (PDC), with a focus on potential carcinogenicity in workers following inhalation exposures, we determined that a mode of action (MOA)-centric framing of cancer effects was warranted. In our MOA analysis, we systematically reviewed the available mechanistic evidence for PDC-induced carcinogenesis, and we mapped biologically plausible MOA pathways and key events (KEs), as guided by the International Programme on Chemical Safety (IPCS)-MOA framework. For the identified pathways and KEs, biological concordance, essentiality of KEs, concordance of empirical observations among KEs, consistency, and analogy were evaluated. The results of this analysis indicate that multiple biologically plausible pathways may contribute to the cancer MOA for PDC, but that the relevant pathways vary by exposure route and level, tissue type, and species; further, more than one pathway may occur concurrently at high exposure levels. While several important data gaps exist, evidence from in vitro mechanistic studies, in vivo experimental animal studies, and ex vivo human tumor tissue analyses indicates that the predominant MOA pathway likely involves saturation of cytochrome p450 2E1 (CYP2E1)-glutathione (GSH) detoxification (molecular initiating event; MIE), accumulation of CYP2E1-oxidative metabolites, cytotoxicity, chronic tissue damage and inflammation, and ultimately tumor formation. Tumors may occur through several subsets of inflammatory KEs, including inflammation-induced aberrant expression of activation-induced cytidine deaminase (AID), which causes DNA strand breaks and mutations and can lead to tumors with a characteristic mutational signature found in occupational cholangiocarcinoma. Dose concordance analysis showed that low-dose mutagenicity (from any pathway) is not a driving MOA, and that prevention of target tissue damage and inflammation (associated with saturation of CYP2E1-GSH detoxification) is expected to also prevent the cascade of processes responsible for tumor formation.

Strategies for refinement of occupational inhalation exposure evaluation in the EPA TSCA risk evaluation process.

The focus on occupational exposures in the first published risk evaluations of existing chemicals by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) under the amended Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA) puts a welcome spotlight on protecting the health of workers in the United States. Because new, fit-for-purpose occupational exposure assessment methodologies were developed by EPA, the objective of this analysis was to evaluate these methodologies in light of other existing occupational risk assessment frameworks. We focused our analysis on three chlorinated chemicals (methylene chloride, carbon tetrachloride, perchloroethylene). The EPA's methods were evaluated relative to peer-reviewed and professional organizations' guidelines for conducting site- and facility-based exposure assessment. Analyses of several key phases in the EPA approach were conducted to evaluate the effect of alternative approaches on exposure estimates. The revised exposure estimates using these alternative approaches yielded substantially different exposure estimates from those in the TSCA risk evaluations for these chemicals. The results also demonstrated the importance of utilizing a tiered approach to exposure estimation that includes collecting qualitative data, defining similar exposure groups, and integrating well-parameterized models with empirical data. These approaches aid in preventing mischaracterization of exposures and generating exposure estimates representative of current industrial practices. Collaboration among industry, EPA, and other government agencies to develop a harmonized approach to exposure assessment would improve the methodological rigor of, and increase stakeholder confidence in, the results of TSCA risk evaluations.

Difficulties in summing log-normal distributions for abundance and potential solutions.

The log-normal distribution, often used to model animal abundance and its uncertainty, is central to ecological modeling and conservation but its statistical properties are less intuitive than those of the normal distribution. The right skew of the log-normal distribution can be considerable for highly uncertain estimates and the median is often chosen as a point estimate. However, the use of the median can become complicated when summing across populations since the median of the sum of log-normal distributions is not the sum of the constituent medians. Such estimates become sensitive to the spatial or taxonomic scale over which abundance is being summarized and the naive estimate (the median of the distribution representing the sum across populations) can become grossly inflated. Here we review the statistical issues involved and some alternative formulations that might be considered by ecologists interested in modeling abundance. Using a recent estimate of global avian abundance as a case study (Callaghan et al. 2021), we investigate the properties of several alternative methods of summing across species' abundance, including the sorted summing used in the original study (Callaghan et al. 2021) and the use of shifted log-normal distributions, truncated normal distributions, and rectified normal distributions. The appropriate method of summing across distributions was intimately tied to the use of the mean or median as the measure of central tendency used as the point estimate. Use of the shifted log-normal distribution, however, generated scale-consistent estimates for global abundance across a spectrum of contexts. Our paper highlights how seemingly inconsequential decisions regarding the estimation of abundance yield radically different estimates of global abundance and its uncertainty, with conservation consequences that are underappreciated and require careful consideration.

Analysis of dermal exposure assessment in the US Environmental Protection Agency Toxic Substances Control Act risk evaluations of chemical manufacturing.

The United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulates chemical manufacture, import, processing, distribution, use, and disposal under the 2016 amended Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA) for the purposes of protecting the public and sensitive populations-including workers-from chemical exposure risk. The publication of several TSCA risk evaluations provided a unique opportunity to evaluate the evolving regulatory approach for assessing the dermal exposure pathway in occupational settings. In this analysis, the occupational dermal exposure assessment methods employed in several TSCA risk evaluations were assessed. Specifically, a methodology review was conducted for the occupational dermal scenarios of manufacturing and feedstock use in the risk evaluations of three chlorinated organic chemicals: trichloroethylene, carbon tetrachloride, and perchloroethylene. Additionally, alternative exposure estimates were generated using the exposure model IH SkinPermTM. The review and alternative exposure analyses indicate that the current TSCA modeling approach may generate total dermal absorbed doses for chlorinated chemical manufacturing and feedstock use scenarios that are 2- to 20-fold higher than those generated by IH SkinPerm. Best-practice recommendations developed in the methodology review support a tiered, integrated approach to dermal exposure assessment that emphasizes collecting qualitative data; employing validated, peer-reviewed models that align with current industrial practices; and gathering empirical sampling data where needed. Collaboration among industry, EPA, and other stakeholders to share information and develop a standard approach to exposure assessment under TSCA would improve the methodological rigor of, and increase confidence in, the risk evaluation results.

Antarctic Penguin Biogeography Project: Database of abundance and distribution for the Adélie, chinstrap, gentoo, emperor, macaroni and king penguin south of 60 S.

Background: The Antarctic Penguin Biogeography Project is an effort to collate all known information about the distribution and abundance of Antarctic penguins through time and to make such data available to the scientific and management community. The core data product involves a series of structured tables with information on known breeding sites and surveys conducted at those sites from the earliest days of Antarctic exploration through to the present. This database, which is continuously updated as new information becomes available, provides a unified and comprehensive repository of information on Antarctic penguin biogeography that contributes to a growing suite of applications of value to the Antarctic community. One such application is the Mapping Application for Antarctic Penguins and Projected Dynamics (MAPPPD; www.penguinmap.com), a browser-based search and visualisation tool designed primarily for policy-makers and other non-specialists, and mapppdr, an R package developed to assist the Antarctic science community. This dataset contains records of Pygoscelisadeliae, Pygoscelisantarctica, Pygoscelispapua, Eudypteschrysolophus, Aptenodytespatagonicus and Aptenodytesforsteri annual nest, adult and/or chick counts conducted during field expeditions or collected using remote sensing imagery, that were subsequently gathered by the Antarctic Penguin Biogeography Project from published and unpublished sources, at all known Antarctic penguin breeding colonies south of 60 S from 01-11-1892 to 12-02-2022-02-12. New information: This dataset collates together all publicly available breeding colony abundance data (1979-2022) for Antarctic penguins in a single database with standardised notation and format. Colony locations have been adjusted as necessary using satellite imagery and each colony has been assigned a unique four-digit alphanumeric code to avoid confusion. These data include information previously published in a variety of print and online formats as well as additional survey data not previously published. Previously unpublished data derive primarily from recent surveys collected under the auspices of the Antarctic Site Inventory, Penguin Watch or by the Lynch Lab at Stony Brook University.

Threat management priorities for conserving Antarctic biodiversity.

Antarctic terrestrial biodiversity faces multiple threats, from invasive species to climate change. Yet no large-scale assessments of threat management strategies exist. Applying a structured participatory approach, we demonstrate that existing conservation efforts are insufficient in a changing world, estimating that 65% (at best 37%, at worst 97%) of native terrestrial taxa and land-associated seabirds are likely to decline by 2100 under current trajectories. Emperor penguins are identified as the most vulnerable taxon, followed by other seabirds and dry soil nematodes. We find that implementing 10 key threat management strategies in parallel, at an estimated present-day equivalent annual cost of US$23 million, could benefit up to 84% of Antarctic taxa. Climate change is identified as the most pervasive threat to Antarctic biodiversity and influencing global policy to effectively limit climate change is the most beneficial conservation strategy. However, minimising impacts of human activities and improved planning and management of new infrastructure projects are cost-effective and will help to minimise regional threats. Simultaneous global and regional efforts are critical to secure Antarctic biodiversity for future generations.

Variability, skipped breeding and heavy-tailed dynamics in an Antarctic seabird.

The population dynamics of many colonially breeding seabirds are characterized by large interannual fluctuations that cannot be explained by environmental conditions alone. This variation may be particularly confounded by the use of skipped breeding by seabirds as a life-history strategy, which directly impacts the number of breeding pairs and may affect the accuracy of breeding abundance as a metric of population health. Additionally, large fluctuations in time series may suggest that the underlying population dynamics are heavy tailed, allowing for a higher likelihood of extreme events than expected under Gaussian dynamics. Here, we investigated the effect of demography on time series for abundance of the Adélie penguin Pygoscelis adeliae and explored the occurrence of heavy-tailed dynamics in observed Adélie time series. We focus this study on the Adélie penguin as it is an important bellwether species long used to track the impacts of climate change and fishing on the Southern Ocean ecosystem and shares life-history traits with many colonial seabirds. We quantified the impacts of demographic rates, including skipped breeding, on time series of Adélie abundance simulated using an age-structured model. We also used observed time series of Adélie breeding abundance at all known Antarctic colonies to classify distributions for abundance as Gaussian or non-Gaussian heavy tailed. We then identified the cause of such heavy-tailed dynamics in simulated time series and linked these to spatial patterns in Adélie food resource variability. We found that breeding propensity drives observed breeding fluctuations more than any other vital rate, with high variability in skipped breeding decoupling true abundance from observed breeding abundance. We also found several Antarctic regions characterized by heavy-tailed dynamics in abundance. These regions were often also characterized by high variability in zooplankton availability. In simulated time series, heavy-tailed dynamics were strongly linked to high variability in adult survival. Our results illustrate that stochastic variability in abundance dynamics, particularly the presence of variable rates of skipped breeding, can challenge our interpretation of fluctuations in abundance through time and obscure the relationship between key environmental drivers and population abundance.

Systematic review of the scientific evidence of the pulmonary carcinogenicity of talc.

We conducted a systematic review to assess the potential pulmonary carcinogenicity of inhaled talc in humans. Our systematic review methods adhere to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines and incorporated aspects from the US Institute of Medicine (IOM) and several United States (US) Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) frameworks for systematic reviews. A comprehensive literature search was conducted. Detailed data abstraction and study quality evaluation, adapting the US Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA) framework, were central to our analysis. The literature search and selection process identified 23 primary studies that assessed exposure to talc and pulmonary cancer risks in humans (n = 19) and animals (n = 3). Integrating all streams of evidence according to the IOM framework yielded classifications of suggestive evidence of no association between inhaled talc and lung cancer and pleural mesothelioma at human-relevant exposure levels.