The Barts Health NHS Trust COVID-19 cohort: characteristics, outcomes and risk scoring of patients in East London.

BACKGROUND: Barts Health National Health Service Trust (BHNHST) serves a diverse population of 2.5 million people in London, UK. We undertook a health services assessment of factors used to evaluate the risk of severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection.METHODS: Patients with confirmed polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test results admitted between 1 March and 1 August 2020 were included, alongwith clinician-diagnosed suspected cases. Prognostic factors from the 4C Mortality score and 4C Deterioration scores were extracted from electronic health records and logistic regression was used to quantify the strength of association with 28-day mortality and clinical deterioration using national death registry linkage.RESULTS: Of 2783 patients, 1621 had a confirmed diagnosis, of whom 61% were male and 54% were from Black and Minority Ethnic groups; 26% died within 28 days of admission. Mortality was strongly associated with older age. The 4C mortality score had good stratification of risk with a calibration slope of 1.14 (95% CI 1.01-1.27). It may have under-estimated mortality risk in those with a high respiratory rate or requiring oxygen.CONCLUSION: Patients in this diverse patient cohort had similar mortality associated with prognostic factors to the 4C score derivation sample, but survival might be poorer in those with respiratory failure.

Development and internal validation of clinical prediction models for outcomes of complicated intra-abdominal infection.

BACKGROUND: Complicated intra-abdominal infections (cIAIs) are associated with significant morbidity and mortality. The aim of this study was to describe the clinical characteristics of patients with cIAI in a multicentre study and to develop clinical prediction models (CPMs) to help identify patients at risk of mortality or relapse. METHODS: A multicentre observational study was conducted from August 2016 to February 2017 in the UK. Adult patients diagnosed with cIAI were included. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to develop CPMs for mortality and cIAI relapse. The c-statistic was used to test model discrimination. Model calibration was tested using calibration slopes and calibration in the large (CITL). The CPMs were then presented as point scoring systems and validated further. RESULTS: Overall, 417 patients from 31 surgical centres were included in the analysis. At 90 days after diagnosis, 17.3 per cent had a cIAI relapse and the mortality rate was 11.3 per cent. Predictors in the mortality model were age, cIAI aetiology, presence of a perforated viscus and source control procedure. Predictors of cIAI relapse included the presence of collections, outcome of initial management, and duration of antibiotic treatment. The c-statistic adjusted for model optimism was 0.79 (95 per cent c.i. 0.75 to 0.87) and 0.74 (0.73 to 0.85) for mortality and cIAI relapse CPMs. Adjusted calibration slopes were 0.88 (95 per cent c.i. 0.76 to 0.90) for the mortality model and 0.91 (0.88 to 0.94) for the relapse model; CITL was -0.19 (95 per cent c.i. -0.39 to -0.12) and - 0.01 (- 0.17 to -0.03) respectively. CONCLUSION: Relapse of infection and death after complicated intra-abdominal infections are common. Clinical prediction models were developed to identify patients at increased risk of relapse or death after treatment, these now require external validation.

Use of plasma human herpesvirus-8 viral load measurement: evaluation of practice in three UK HIV treatment centres.

A retrospective audit of plasma human herpesvirus-8 (HHV-8) viral load testing was performed in three HIV treatment centres over 24 months. Reasons for testing (360 tests) were: symptoms of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) (fever, lymphadenopathy and raised inflammatory markers); monitoring in known HHV-8 pathology other than Kaposi sarcoma (KS); investigation of known/suspected KS, and other/no reason. Of patients with multicentric Castleman disease (MCD), 14/16 (88%) had detectable plasma HHV-8, as did 27/45 (60%) with biopsy proven or clinically confirmed KS, and 6/19 (32%) with lymphoma. Neither of the two patients with MCD and no detectable HHV-8 had SIRS symptoms at the time of the test. There was wide variation between centres in the indications prompting HHV-8 testing, with a more conservative approach resulting in a higher proportion of positive results. Measuring plasma HHV-8 in the absence of SIRS symptoms, established HHV-8 disease monitoring, or confirmed/suspected KS is unlikely to yield detectable HHV-8 thus allowing potential cost savings.

Positive hepatitis B virus core antibody in HIV infection--false positive or evidence of previous infection?

Isolated HBV core antibody (anti-HBc) is defined as the presence of anti-HBc with a negative HBV surface antigen (HBsAg) and HBV surface antibody (anti-HBs <10 IU/l). In patients infected with HIV with isolated anti-HBc, the aim was to determine: The prevalence of isolated positive anti-HBc; The most effective method of identifying which patients have had previous Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) infection; The prevalence of false positive anti-HBc. HBV serology results were identified from 539 patients infected with HIV sampled between January 2010 and December 2012. In those with an isolated anti-HBc and negative anti-HBe, a second anti-HBc test was carried out using a different assay. Samples were also screened for HBV DNA. The anti-retroviral regimens at time of screening were documented. 101/539 had an isolated anti-HBc. Of these, 32 (32%) had a positive anti-HBe (including 1 equivocal) and 69(68%) were anti-HBe negative. Of those negative for anti-HBe, 32 were tested for both DNA and a second anti-HBc. Of these 26 (81%) were on cART at time of HBV testing, with 25 (78%) on ART with anti-HBV activity. The prevalence of isolated anti-HBc was 19%. Only 32% were also anti-HBe positive, whereas 97% of those anti-HBe negative were positive on a second anti-HBc assay suggesting lack of utility of anti-HBe in resolving serological quandaries. One subject (3%) had a false positive anti-HBc. There was no evidence of chronic HBV but 78% patients were on HBV-suppressive combination anti-retroviral therapy.