The prevalence of chronic pain in children and adolescents: a systematic review update and meta-analysis.

ABSTRACT: Chronic pain, defined as persistent or recurring pain or pain lasting longer than 3 months, is a common childhood problem. The objective of this study was to conduct an updated systematic review and meta-analysis on the prevalence of chronic pain (ie, overall, headache, abdominal pain, back pain, musculoskeletal pain, multisite/general pain, and other) in children and adolescents. EMBASE, PubMed, CINAHL, and PsycINFO were searched for publications between January 1, 2009, and June 30, 2023. Studies reporting population-based estimates of chronic nondisease related pain prevalence in children or adolescents (age ≤ 19 years) were included. Two independent reviewers screened articles based on a priori protocol. One hundred nineteen studies with a total of 1,043,878 children (52.0% female, mean age 13.4 years [SD 2.4]) were included. Seventy different countries were represented, with the highest number of data points of prevalence estimates coming from Finland and Germany (n = 19 each, 4.3%). The overall prevalence of chronic pain in children and adolescents was 20.8%, with the highest prevalence for headache and musculoskeletal pain (25.7%). Overall, and for all types of pain except for back pain and musculoskeletal pain, there were significant differences in the prevalence between boys and girls, with girls having a higher prevalence of pain. There was high heterogeneity (I 2 99.9%). Overall risk of bias was low to moderate. In summary, approximately 1 in 5 children and adolescents experience chronic pain and prevalence varies by pain type; for most types, there is higher pain prevalence among girls than among boys. Findings echo and expand upon the systematic review conducted in 2011.

Factors influencing the outcomes of non-pharmacological interventions for managing fatigue across the lifespan of people living with musculoskeletal (MSK) conditions: a scoping review protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Fatigue is an important and distressing symptom for many people living with chronic musculoskeletal (MSK) conditions. Many non-pharmacological interventions have been investigated in recent years and some have been demonstrated to be effective in reducing fatigue and fatigue impact, however, there is limited guidance for clinicians to follow regarding the most appropriate management options. The objective of this scoping review is to understand and map the extent of evidence in relation to the factors that relate to the outcome of non-pharmacological interventions on MSK condition-related fatigue across the lifespan. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This scoping review will include evidence relating to people of all ages living with chronic MSK conditions who have been offered a non-pharmacological intervention with either the intention or effect of reducing fatigue and its impact. Databases including AMED, PsycINFO, CINAHLPlus, MEDLINE, EMBASE and Scopus will be searched for peer-reviewed primary research studies published after 1 January 2007 in English language. These findings will be used to identify factors associated with successful interventions and to map gaps in knowledge. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval was not required for this review. Findings will be disseminated by journal publications, conference presentations and by communicating with relevant healthcare and charity organisations.

Drug effectiveness of 2nd and 3rd TNF inhibitors in psoriatic arthritis - relationship with the reason for withdrawal from the previous treatment.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate real-world retention and remission rates in PsA patients initiating a 2nd or 3rd TNFi and the association with reason for discontinuation from the previous TNFi-treatment. METHODS: Prospectively collected routine care data from 12 European registries were pooled. Retention rates (Kaplan-Meier estimation) and crude/LUNDEX-adjusted rates of Disease Activity Score 28 and Disease Activity index for PSoriatic Arthritis (DAS28 and DAPSA28) remission were calculated and compared with adjusted Cox regression analyses and Chi-squared test, respectively). RESULTS: We included 5233 (2nd TNFi) and 1906 (3rd TNFi) patients. Twelve-month retention rates for the 2nd and 3rd TNFi were 68% (95%CI: 67-70%) and 66% (64-68%), respectively. Patients who stopped the previous TNFi due to AE/LOE had 12-month retention rates of 66%/65% (2nd TNFi), and 65%/63% (3rd TNFi), respectively. Patients who stopped the previous TNFi due to LOE after less vs more than 24 weeks had 12-month retention rates of 54%/69% (2nd TNFi), and 58%/65% (3rd TNFi). Six-month crude/LUNDEX-adjusted DAS28 remission rates were 48%/35% and 38%/27%, and DAPSA28 remission rates were 19%/14% and 14%/10%, for the 2nd and 3rd TNFi. CONCLUSION: Two-thirds of patients remained on TNFi at 12months for both the 2nd and 3rd TNFi, while one-third and one-quarter of patients were in DAS28 remission after 6months on the 2nd and 3rd TNFi. While drug effectiveness was similar in patients who stopped the previous TNFi due to AE compared to overall LOE, drug effectiveness was better in patients who had stopped the previous TNF due to secondary LOE compared to primary LOE.

Cut-Offs for Disease Activity States in Axial Spondyloarthritis With Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Score (ASDAS) Based on C-Reactive Protein and ASDAS Based on Erythrocyte Sedimentation Rate: Are They Interchangeable?

OBJECTIVE: Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Score based on C-reactive protein (ASDAS-CRP) is recommended over ASDAS based on erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ASDAS-ESR) to assess disease activity in axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA). Although ASDAS-CRP and ASDAS-ESR are not interchangeable, the same disease activity cut-offs are used for both. We aimed to estimate optimal ASDAS-ESR values corresponding to the established ASDAS-CRP cut-offs (1.3, 2.1, and 3.5) and investigate the potential improvement of level of agreement between ASDAS-ESR and ASDAS-CRP disease activity states when applying these estimated cut-offs. METHODS: We used data from patients with axSpA from 9 European registries initiating a tumor necrosis factor inhibitor. ASDAS-ESR cut-offs were estimated using the Youden index. The level of agreement between ASDAS-ESR and ASDAS-CRP disease activity states was compared against each other. RESULTS: In 3664 patients, mean ASDAS-CRP was higher than ASDAS-ESR at both baseline (3.6 and 3.4, respectively) and aggregated follow-up at 6, 12, or 24 months (1.9 and 1.8, respectively). The estimated ASDAS-ESR values corresponding to the established ASDAS-CRP cut-offs were 1.4, 1.9, and 3.3. By applying these cut-offs, the proportion of discordance between disease activity states according to ASDAS-ESR and ASDAS-CRP decreased from 22.93% to 19.81% in baseline data but increased from 27.17% to 28.94% in follow-up data. CONCLUSION: We estimated the optimal ASDAS-ESR values corresponding to the established ASDAS-CRP cut-off values. However, applying the estimated cut-offs did not increase the level of agreement between ASDAS-ESR and ASDAS-CRP disease activity states to a relevant degree. Our findings did not provide evidence to reject the established cut-off values for ASDAS-ESR.

The worldwide prevalence of psoriatic arthritis-a systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Previous attempts to pool prevalence studies in PsA have failed to take account of important methodological differences between studies which may have created biased estimates. The aim of this review is to estimate the prevalence of PsA within the adult general population worldwide, considering potential differences between population-based and health administrative studies separately. METHODS: Four electronic databases were systematically searched for articles reporting the prevalence of PsA. Data were pooled to generate worldwide prevalence estimates. Where sufficient data were available, results were summarised by continent. RESULTS: 30 studies were identified, with half from Europe (n = 15). Thirteen population-based studies were identified comprising >92 000 adults, plus 17 studies (>180 million adults) based on health administrative data. The worldwide prevalence of PsA was 112 per 100 000 adults. The prevalence of PsA estimated using populations-based studies was 113 per 100 000 with continent-specific estimates of 207 (Europe), 64 (North America), and 37 (Asia) per 100 000. Health administrative studies gave a global prevalence of 109 per 100 000 with continent-specific prevalence of 175 (Europe), 147 (North America), 78 (Asia), and 17 (South America). CONCLUSION: This review compiles currently available estimates of PsA prevalence in the general population into global and continent-based estimates and considers important study design characteristics. There is wide variability between continents and data in some geographical areas are sparse but available evidence suggests that PsA is more common in Europe and North America compared with Asia and South America, and current best estimates suggest a global prevalence of 112 per 100 000 adults.

Do current methods of measuring the impact of chronic pain on work reflect the experience of working-age adults? An integrated mixed-methods systematic narrative review.

ABSTRACT: Chronic pain affects individuals' work participation. The impact of chronic pain on work has historically been measured through sickness absence, though it is now appreciated that the impacts on work are far wider. This mixed-methods review aimed to identify the full range of impacts of pain on work in addition to impacts that are currently measured quantitatively to inform the development of a new questionnaire assessing the wider impacts of chronic pain on work. MEDLINE, Embase, PsychINFO, and CINAHL were searched for studies that included quantitative measures of the impact of chronic pain on work and for qualitative studies where individuals described impacts of their chronic pain on work. Quantitative measures, and text from qualitative studies, were analysed thematically. A thematic framework was developed for establishing the types of impacts measured or described in the literature. Forty-four quantitative and 16 qualitative papers were identified. The literature described impacts within 5 areas: changes at work and to working status; aspects of the workplace and work relationships; pain and related symptoms at work; psychological factors; and factors and impacts outside the work environment related to work. Quantitative measures mainly assessed impacts related to the quantity and quality of work (29 of 42 measures). Seventeen aspects were only discussed within the qualitative literature. This study identifies a discrepancy between the impacts that have been the focus of quantitative measures and the range that individuals working with chronic pain experience and highlights the need for a new measure assessing a wider range of issues.

Patient-reported outcomes in axial spondyloarthritis and psoriatic arthritis patients treated with secukinumab for 24 months in daily clinical practice.

OBJECTIVES: In patients with axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA) or psoriatic arthritis (PsA) initiating secukinumab, we aimed to assess and compare the proportion of patients achieving 6-, 12- and 24-month patient-reported outcomes (PRO) remission and the 24-month retention rates. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients with axSpA or PsA from 16 European registries, who initiated secukinumab in routine care were included. PRO remission rates were defined as pain, fatigue, Patient Global Assessment (PGA) ≤2 (Numeric Rating Scale (NRS) 0-10) and Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) ≤0.5, for both axSpA and PsA, and were calculated as crude values and adjusted for drug adherence (LUNDEX). Comparisons of axSpA and PsA remission rates were performed using logistic regression analyses (unadjusted and adjusted for multiple confounders). Kaplan-Meier plots with log-rank test and Cox regression analyses were conducted to assess and compare secukinumab retention rates. RESULTS: We included 3087 axSpA and 3246 PsA patients initiating secukinumab. Crude pain, fatigue, PGA and HAQ remission rates were higher in axSpA than in PsA patients, whereas LUNDEX-adjusted remission rates were similar. No differences were found between the patient groups after adjustment for confounders. The 24-month retention rates were similar in axSpA vs. PsA in fully adjusted analyses (HR [95 %CI] = 0.92 [0.84-1.02]). CONCLUSION: In this large European real-world study of axSpA and PsA patients treated with secukinumab, we demonstrate for the first time a comparable effectiveness in PRO remission and treatment retention rates between these two conditions when adjusted for confounders.

Predictors of DAPSA28 remission in patients with psoriatic arthritis initiating a first TNF inhibitor: results from 13 European registries.

OBJECTIVES: In bio-naïve patients with PsA initiating a TNF inhibitor (TNFi), we aimed to identify baseline predictors of Disease Activity index for PsA in 28 joints (DAPSA28) remission (primary objective) and DAPSA28 moderate response at 6 months, as well as drug retention at 12 months across 13 European registries. METHODS: Baseline demographic and clinical characteristics were retrieved and the three outcomes investigated per registry and in pooled data, using logistic regression analyses on multiply imputed data. In the pooled cohort, selected predictors that were either consistently positive or negative across all three outcomes were defined as common predictors. RESULTS: In the pooled cohort (n = 13 369), 6-month proportions of remission, moderate response and 12-month drug retention were 25%, 34% and 63% in patients with available data (n = 6954, n = 5275 and n = 13 369, respectively). Five common baseline predictors of remission, moderate response and 12-month drug retention were identified across all three outcomes. The odds ratios (95% CIs) for DAPSA28 remission were: age, per year: 0.97 (0.96-0.98); disease duration, years (<2 years as reference): 2-3 years: 1.20 (0.89-1.60), 4-9 years: 1.42 (1.09-1.84), ≥10 years: 1.66 (1.26-2.20); men vs women: 1.85 (1.54-2.23); CRP of >10 vs ≤10 mg/l: 1.52 (1.22-1.89) and 1 mm increase in patient fatigue score: 0.99 (0.98-0.99). CONCLUSION: Baseline predictors of remission, response and adherence to TNFi therapy were identified, of which five were common for all three outcomes, indicating that the predictors emerging from our pooled cohort may be considered generalizable from country level to disease level.

Diagnostic accuracy of HPV16 early antigen serology for HPV-driven oropharyngeal cancer is independent of age and sex.

A growing proportion of head and neck cancer (HNC), especially oropharyngeal cancer (OPC), is caused by human papillomavirus (HPV). There are several markers for HPV-driven HNC, one being HPV early antigen serology. We aimed to investigate the diagnostic accuracy of HPV serology and its performance across patient characteristics. Data from the VOYAGER consortium was used, which comprises five studies on HNC from North America and Europe. Diagnostic accuracy, that is, sensitivity, specificity, Cohen's kappa and correctly classified proportions of HPV16 E6 serology, was assessed for OPC and other HNC using p16INK4a immunohistochemistry (p16), HPV in situ hybridization (ISH) and HPV PCR as reference methods. Stratified analyses were performed for variables including age, sex, smoking and alcohol use, to test the robustness of diagnostic accuracy. A risk-factor analysis based on serology was conducted, comparing HPV-driven to non-HPV-driven OPC. Overall, HPV serology had a sensitivity of 86.8% (95% CI 85.1-88.3) and specificity of 91.2% (95% CI 88.6-93.4) for HPV-driven OPC using p16 as a reference method. In stratified analyses, diagnostic accuracy remained consistent across sex and different age groups. Sensitivity was lower for heavy smokers (77.7%), OPC without lymph node involvement (74.4%) and the ARCAGE study (66.7%), while specificity decreased for cases with <10 pack-years (72.1%). The risk-factor model included study, year of diagnosis, age, sex, BMI, alcohol use, pack-years, TNM-T and TNM-N stage. HPV serology is a robust biomarker for HPV-driven OPC, and its diagnostic accuracy is independent of age and sex. Future research is suggested on the influence of smoking on HPV antibody levels.

Self-Reported Pain Treatment Practices Among U.S. and Canadian Adults: Findings From a Population Survey.

Background and Objectives: Pain treatments and their efficacy have been studied extensively. Yet surprisingly little is known about the types of treatments, and combinations of treatments, that community-dwelling adults use to manage pain, as well as how treatment types are associated with individual characteristics and national-level context. To fill this gap, we evaluated self-reported pain treatment types among community-dwelling adults in the United States and Canada. We also assessed how treatment types correlate with individuals' pain levels, sociodemographic characteristics, and country of residence, and identified unique clusters of adults in terms of treatment combinations. Research Design and Methods: We used the 2020 "Recovery and Resilience" United States-Canada general online survey with 2 041 U.S. and 2 072 Canadian community-dwelling adults. Respondents selected up to 10 pain treatment options including medication, physical therapy, exercise, etc., and an open-ended item was available for self-report of any additional treatments. Data were analyzed using descriptive, regression-based, and latent class analyses. Results: Over-the-counter (OTC) medication was reported most frequently (by 55% of respondents, 95% CI 53%-56%), followed by "just living with pain" (41%, 95% CI 40%-43%) and exercise (40%, 95% CI 38%-41%). The modal response (29%) to the open-ended item was cannabis use. Pain was the most salient correlate, predicting a greater frequency of all pain treatments. Country differences were generally small; a notable exception was alcohol use, which was reported twice as often among U.S. versus Canadian adults. Individuals were grouped into 5 distinct clusters: 2 groups relied predominantly on medication (prescription or OTC), another favored exercise and other self-care approaches, one included adults "just living with" pain, and the cluster with the highest pain levels employed all modalities heavily. Discussion and Implications: Our findings provide new insights into recent pain treatment strategies among North American adults and identify population subgroups with potentially unmet need for more adaptive and effective pain management.

Follow-Up of Patients With Axial Spondyloarthritis in Specialist Health Care With Remote Monitoring and Self-Monitoring Compared With Regular Face-to-Face Follow-Up Visits (the ReMonit Study): Protocol for a Randomized, Controlled Open-Label Noninferiority Trial.

BACKGROUND: Patients with chronic inflammatory joint diseases such as axial spondyloarthritis have traditionally received regular follow-up in specialist health care to maintain low disease activity. The follow-up has been organized as prescheduled face-to-face visits, which are time-consuming for both patients and health care professionals. Technology has enabled the remote monitoring of disease activity, allowing patients to self-monitor their disease and contact health care professionals when needed. Remote monitoring or self-monitoring may provide a more personalized follow-up, but there is limited research on how these follow-up strategies perform in maintaining low disease activity, patient satisfaction, safety, and cost-effectiveness. OBJECTIVE: The Remote Monitoring in Axial Spondyloarthritis (ReMonit) study aimed to assess the effectiveness of digital remote monitoring and self-monitoring in maintaining low disease activity in patients with axial spondyloarthritis. METHODS: The ReMonit study is a 3-armed, single-site, randomized, controlled, open-label noninferiority trial including patients with axial spondyloarthritis with low disease activity (Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Score <2.1) and on stable treatment with a tumor necrosis factor inhibitor. Participants were randomized 1:1:1 to arm A (usual care, face-to-face visits every sixth month), arm B (remote monitoring, monthly digital registration of patient-reported outcomes), or arm C (patient-initiated care, self-monitoring, no planned visits during the study period). The primary end point was disease activity measured with the Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Score, evaluated at 6, 12, and 18 months. We aimed to include 240 patients, 80 in each arm. Secondary end points included other measures of disease activity, patient satisfaction, safety, and cost-effectiveness. RESULTS: The project is funded by the South-Eastern Norway Regional Health Authority and Centre for the treatment of Rheumatic and Musculoskeletal Diseases (REMEDY), Diakonhjemmet Hospital, Norway. Enrollment started in September 2021 and was completed with 242 patients by June 2022. The data collection will be completed in December 2023. CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge, this trial will be among the first to evaluate the effectiveness, safety, and cost-effectiveness of remote digital monitoring and self-monitoring of patients with axial spondyloarthritis compared with usual care. Hence, the ReMonit study will contribute important knowledge to personalized follow-up strategies for patients with axial spondyloarthritis. These results may also be relevant for other patient groups with inflammatory joint diseases. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05031767; hpps://www.clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT05031767. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): DERR1-10.2196/52872.

Commonalities and differences in set-up and data collection across European spondyloarthritis registries - results from the EuroSpA collaboration.

BACKGROUND: In European axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA) and psoriatic arthritis (PsA) clinical registries, we aimed to investigate commonalities and differences in (1) set-up, clinical data collection; (2) data availability and completeness; and (3) wording, recall period, and scale used for selected patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs). METHODS: Data was obtained as part of the EuroSpA Research Collaboration Network and consisted of (1) an online survey and follow-up interview, (2) upload of real-world data, and (3) selected PROMs included in the online survey. RESULTS: Fifteen registries participated, contributing 33,948 patients (axSpA: 21,330 (63%), PsA: 12,618 (37%)). The reported coverage of eligible patients ranged from 0.5 to 100%. Information on age, sex, biological/targeted synthetic disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drug treatment, disease duration, and C-reactive protein was available in all registries with data completeness between 85% and 100%. All PROMs (Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity and Functional Indices, Health Assessment Questionnaire, and patient global, pain and fatigue assessments) were more complete after 2015 (68-86%) compared to prior (50-79%). Patient global, pain and fatigue assessments showed heterogeneity between registries in terms of wording, recall periods, and scale. CONCLUSION: Important heterogeneity in registry design and data collection across fifteen European axSpA and PsA registries was observed. Several core measures were widely available, and an increase in data completeness of PROMs in recent years was identified. This study might serve as a basis for examining how differences in data collection across registries may impact the results of collaborative research in the future.

Bringing the Walk with Ease Programme to the UK: a mixed-methods study to assess the relevance, acceptability, and feasibility of implementation for people with arthritis and musculoskeletal conditions.

Developed in the United States (US), Walk With Ease (WWE) is a popular evidence-based, 6-week community walking programme for adults with arthritis, delivered in either an instructor-led or self-directed format. While WWE has expanded into communities across the USA, it is relatively unknown in other countries across the globe. This study, in collaboration with community and patient partners, aimed to examine the relevance, acceptability and feasibility of introducing WWE into a UK context. After initial cultural adaptation, participants were recruited into the study. Eligible (≥18 years, doctor diagnosed arthritis (confirmed or self-report), self-reported joint symptoms in last 30 days, BMI ≥25 kg/m2, and <150 min/week of moderate/vigorous PA) and consented participants were randomized into two groups: WWE programme or usual care. A mixed-methods analysis approach integrated quantitative data (physical performance assessment; baseline and post-six week programme questionnaire) and qualitative data (narrative interviews exploring participants' pre- and post-WWE experiences and stakeholders' perceptions). Of 149 participants, the majority were women (70%) aged ≥60 years (76%). Among the 97 receiving the programme, 52 chose instructor-led; 45 chose self-directed. Participants found WWE relevant and acceptable-99% indicating they would recommend WWE to family/friends. Within both WWE formats, mixed differences representing improvement were observed at 6 weeks from baseline for physical performance and arthritis symptoms. Emergent themes included improved motivation, health, and social well-being. WWE is a relevant and acceptable walking programme with scope for wider implementation to support UK health and well-being policy strategies.

Walk With Ease (WWE) is a popular walking programme in the USA. It was specially designed for people living with arthritis and musculoskeletal conditions. Over 6-weeks, participants follow a guidebook and can choose to walk by themselves or with an instructor-led group. Research evidence has shown that WWE increases time spent being physically active and improves arthritis symptoms. We wanted to bring WWE across the pond to explore whether it would be well-received and possible to conduct in the UK. We worked with community and patient partners to make sure the WWE materials made sense for a British audience and trained walk leaders. We recruited participants and asked them to complete physical assessment tests, questionnaires, and interviews both before and after the 6-week walking programme. There were 149 participants who took part­most were older women­and 97 participants received the WWE programme. Almost all (99%) would recommend WWE to family and friends. They said, in the interviews, that the programme improved their motivation to be physically active, helped their mood, and social well-being. Their physical performance and arthritis symptoms also improved. WWE has great potential to improve health and well-being of people with arthritis in the UK.

BayesGmed: An R-package for Bayesian causal mediation analysis.

BACKGROUND: The past decade has seen an explosion of research in causal mediation analysis. However, most analytic tools developed so far rely on frequentist methods which may not be robust in the case of small sample sizes. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian approach for causal mediation analysis based on Bayesian g-formula, which will overcome the limitations of the frequentist methods. METHODS: We created BayesGmed, an R-package for fitting Bayesian mediation models in R. The application of the methodology (and software tool) is demonstrated by a secondary analysis of data collected as part of the MUSICIAN study, a randomised controlled trial of remotely delivered cognitive behavioural therapy (tCBT) for people with chronic pain. We tested the hypothesis that the effect of tCBT would be mediated by improvements in active coping, passive coping, fear of movement and sleep problems. We then demonstrate the use of informative priors to conduct probabilistic sensitivity analysis around violations of causal identification assumptions. RESULT: The analysis of MUSICIAN data shows that tCBT has better-improved patients' self-perceived change in health status compared to treatment as usual (TAU). The adjusted log-odds of tCBT compared to TAU range from 1.491 (95% CI: 0.452-2.612) when adjusted for sleep problems to 2.264 (95% CI: 1.063-3.610) when adjusted for fear of movement. Higher scores of fear of movement (log-odds, -0.141 [95% CI: -0.245, -0.048]), passive coping (log-odds, -0.217 [95% CI: -0.351, -0.104]), and sleep problem (log-odds, -0.179 [95% CI: -0.291, -0.078]) leads to lower odds of a positive self-perceived change in health status. The result of BayesGmed, however, shows that none of the mediated effects are statistically significant. We compared BayesGmed with the mediation R- package, and the results were comparable. Finally, our sensitivity analysis using the BayesGmed tool shows that the direct and total effect of tCBT persists even for a large departure in the assumption of no unmeasured confounding. CONCLUSION: This paper comprehensively overviews causal mediation analysis and provides an open-source software package to fit Bayesian causal mediation models.

Cost-effectiveness of cognitive behavioural and personalized exercise interventions for reducing fatigue in inflammatory rheumatic diseases.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of a cognitive behavioural approach (CBA) or a personalized exercise programme (PEP), alongside usual care (UC), in patients with inflammatory rheumatic diseases who report chronic, moderate to severe fatigue. METHODS: A within-trial cost-utility analysis was conducted using individual patient data collected within a multicentre, three-arm randomized controlled trial over a 56-week period. The primary economic analysis was conducted from the UK National Health Service (NHS) perspective. Uncertainty was explored using cost-effectiveness acceptability curves and sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: Complete-case analysis showed that, compared with UC, both PEP and CBA were more expensive [adjusted mean cost difference: PEP £569 (95% CI: £464, £665); CBA £845 (95% CI: £717, £993)] and, in the case of PEP, significantly more effective [adjusted mean quality-adjusted life year (QALY) difference: PEP 0.043 (95% CI: 0.019, 0.068); CBA 0.001 (95% CI: -0.022, 0.022)]. These led to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £13 159 for PEP vs UC, and £793 777 for CBA vs UC. Non-parametric bootstrapping showed that, at a threshold value of £20 000 per QALY gained, PEP had a probability of 88% of being cost-effective. In multiple imputation analysis, PEP was associated with significant incremental costs of £428 (95% CI: £324, £511) and a non-significant QALY gain of 0.016 (95% CI: -0.003, 0.035), leading to an ICER of £26 822 vs UC. The estimates from sensitivity analyses were consistent with these results. CONCLUSION: The addition of a PEP alongside UC is likely to provide a cost-effective use of health care resources.

A risk prediction model for head and neck cancers incorporating lifestyle factors, HPV serology and genetic markers.

Head and neck cancer is often diagnosed late and prognosis for most head and neck cancer patients remains poor. To aid early detection, we developed a risk prediction model based on demographic and lifestyle risk factors, human papillomavirus (HPV) serological markers and genetic markers. A total of 10 126 head and neck cancer cases and 5254 controls from five North American and European studies were included. HPV serostatus was determined by antibodies for HPV16 early oncoproteins (E6, E7) and regulatory early proteins (E1, E2, E4). The data were split into a training set (70%) for model development and a hold-out testing set (30%) for model performance evaluation, including discriminative ability and calibration. The risk models including demographic, lifestyle risk factors and polygenic risk score showed a reasonable predictive accuracy for head and neck cancer overall. A risk model that also included HPV serology showed substantially improved predictive accuracy for oropharyngeal cancer (AUC = 0.94, 95% CI = 0.92-0.95 in men and AUC = 0.92, 95% CI = 0.88-0.95 in women). The 5-year absolute risk estimates showed distinct trajectories by risk factor profiles. Based on the UK Biobank cohort, the risks of developing oropharyngeal cancer among 60 years old and HPV16 seropositive in the next 5 years ranged from 5.8% to 14.9% with an average of 8.1% for men, 1.3% to 4.4% with an average of 2.2% for women. Absolute risk was generally higher among individuals with heavy smoking, heavy drinking, HPV seropositivity and those with higher polygenic risk score. These risk models may be helpful for identifying people at high risk of developing head and neck cancer.