The epidemiology of pediatric outpatient acute respiratory tract infections in the US: a multi-facility analysis of multiplex PCR testing from 2018 to 2023.

IMPORTANCE: Post-pandemic, it is essential to understand the epidemiology of pediatric acute respiratory tract infections (ARTIs). Our multi-facility study elucidates the outpatient epidemiology of pediatric ARTI using highly multiplexed PCR testing, providing critical insights into the evolving landscape of the etiological agents with a particular focus on the years following the emergence of SARS-CoV-2. Utilizing data from two different multiplex PCR panels, our research provides a comprehensive analysis of respiratory pathogen positivity from 2018 to 2023. Our findings indicate that over half of the annual test results identified at least one pathogen, primarily of viral origin. Intriguingly, despite the surge in testing during the COVID-19 pandemic, pathogen detection rates remain similar to the pre-pandemic era. These data hold significant implications for directing antimicrobial stewardship strategies, curbing unnecessary antibiotic use in pediatric respiratory diseases, and the value of multiplex PCR testing in the outpatient setting among pediatrics.

Sexual Risk Behaviors Associated with Sexually Transmitted Infections in a US Military Population Living with HIV After the Repeal of "Don't Ask, Don't Tell".

Risk behaviors associated with sexually transmitted infections (STIs) among people living with HIV (PLWH) have not been well characterized in the US military. We identified risk behaviors associated with a new STI in this population after the repeal of "Don't Ask, Don't Tell." US Military HIV Natural History Study participants who completed the risk behavior questionnaire (RBQ) between 2014 and 2017 and had at least 1 year of follow-up were included (n = 1589). Logistic regression identified behaviors associated with incident STI in the year following RBQ completion. Overall, 18.9% acquired an STI and 52.7% reported condom use at last sexual encounter. Compared with those with no new sex partners, participants with between one and four or five or more new partners were 1.71 [1.25-2.35] and 6.12 [3.47-10.79] times more likely to get an STI, respectively. Individuals reporting low or medium/high perceived risk of STI were 1.83 [1.23-2.72] and 2.65 [1.70-4.15] times more likely to acquire a new STI than those reporting no perceived risk, respectively. Participants who preferred not to answer about sexual preference, number of new partners, or perceived STI risk were also more likely to acquire a new STI. Our study illustrates that despite regular access to health care and accurate perceptions of risk, rates of STI among PLWH remain high in the US military setting, as in others. Given the potential individual and public health consequences of STI coinfection after HIV, more work is needed to assess interventions aimed at sexual behavior change for PLWH.

Predictors of health-related quality of life among military HIV-infected individuals.

OBJECTIVES: To determine long-term predictors of health-related quality of life (HRQOL) and evaluate the treatment effect of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) on HRQOL in the US Military HIV Natural History Study (NHS) cohort. METHODS: Participants were a nested cohort of the NHS who responded to the Rand Short Form 36 questionnaire administered from 2006 to 2010. Physical component summary scores (PCS) and mental component summary scores (MCS) were computed using standard algorithms. HAART-status was categorized as non-protease inhibitor-based (NPI-HAART), protease inhibitor-based (PI-HAART), HAART-naïve, or off-HAART. Mixed linear random effects models were used to estimate changes in PCS and MCS over time for treatment and covariates (including CD4 count, HIV viral load, medical and mental comorbidities). RESULTS: Eight hundred and twelve participants met the inclusion criteria. There was no difference in PCS or MCS between those on PI-HAART compared to NPI-HAART. Significant predictors of PCS were CD4 count < 200 cells/mm3 (ß = - 2.90), CD4 count 200-499 cells/mm3 (ß = - 0.80), and mental comorbidity (ß = - 3.23). Others were medical comorbidity, AIDS-defining illness, being on NPI-HAART, HAART-naïve, age, and rank. Those with medical comorbidities experienced yearly improvement in PCS. Predictors of MCS were CD4 count < 200 cells/mm3 (ß = - 2.53), mental comorbidity (ß = - 4.58), and being African American (ß = 2.59). CONCLUSION: HRQOL was significantly affected by low CD4 count, medical and mental comorbidities. Addressing these modifiable factors would be expected to improve the physical and mental HRQOL of the cohort. Our study did not find any treatment benefit of NPI-HAART over PI-HAART on HRQOL in the long term.

Relationship between depression and risk behaviors in a US Military population with HIV infection.

This study evaluated the relationships between depression trajectories, depression diagnosis and sexual risk behaviors in the US Military HIV Natural History Study. Risk behavior survey data, a coded diagnosis of depression, available Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression measures, and self-reported depressive symptoms (n = 662) were utilized. Latent class analysis created 3 classes of depression trajectories, namely, low depression (LD, n = 378), recent-onset depression (ROD, n = 170), and high depression (HD, n = 114) trajectories. Overall, participants with clinically diagnosed depression were less likely to report often using condoms with new sexual partners in the past 3 months than those who have never been diagnosed with depression (OR 0.15, 95% CI 0.49-2.53). Participants with ROD (OR 0.52, 95% CI 0.28-0.97) and HD (OR 0.48, 95% CI 0.24-0.96) trajectories were less likely to report often using condoms with new sexual partners in the past 3 months than those with LD trajectories. Moreover, those with either ROD (OR 2.13, 95% CI 1.19-3.80) or HD (OR 2.74, 95% CI 1.43-5.24) trajectories were more likely to have had sex with ≥2 new sexual partners in the last 3 months than those with LD trajectories. Continued efforts targeting HIV-infected persons with mental health disorders are warranted to reduce sexual risk behaviors.

Extragenital chlamydia infection among active-duty women in the United States Navy.

BACKGROUND: Pharyngeal and anorectal reservoirs of gonorrhea (GC) and chlamydia (CT) are increasingly recognized among heterosexual women. While a number of studies performed at sexually transmitted disease (STD) clinics have found a high prevalence of extragenital GC/CT infection, such screening is typically not offered during routine primary care visits for women. We sought to define the prevalence of and factors associated with extragenital GC/CT among women in the U.S. Navy. METHODS: We recruited servicewomen stationed in San Diego, California, between the ages of 18 and 25 who presented for an annual physical exam between January and September, 2017. Nucleic acid amplification testing was performed on swabs collected at endocervical, oropharyngeal and anorectal sites to assess the presence of GC/CT. An anonymous behavioral questionnaire was also administered to characterize sexual risk. Descriptive statistics were used to compare women with and without a prior history of any sexually transmitted infection (STI) (self-report) along with a current GC/CT diagnosis. This study was approved by the Institutional Review Board of the Uniformed Services University of Health Sciences. RESULTS: Of the 75 patients who were approached, 60 subjects were enrolled in the study, including white 20 (33.3%), black/African American 18 (31.0%), Hispanic/Latina 13 (21.7%) and Asian/Pacific Islander 9 (15.5%) women. Among all the women, six (10.0%) were diagnosed with CT infection, all via endocervical exam. Of these, five (8.3%) had concurrent anorectal infection, including two cases (3.3%) accompanied by pharyngeal infection. Of the subjects, 15 (25.0%) reported anal intercourse in their most recent sexual encounter, most of which was condomless (13/15, 86.7%). A high number of women who reported sex with a casual male partner (19/45, 42.2%) reported rarely or never using condoms; last, 41.7% consuming at least 3 drinks on a typical drinking day, and one-third of the reported drinking more than once per week. CONCLUSIONS: We found a high prevalence of anorectal CT infection, although no infections were detected without concurrent endocervical involvement. Nonetheless, the high prevalence of condomless anal intercourse reported by participants argues for further study and ongoing consideration of extragenital screening among high-risk patients. Behavioral interventions are also warranted given the high prevalence of sexual and related risk factors.

Age, Race, and At-Risk Drinking in an HIV-infected U.S. Military Cohort.

INTRODUCTION: There is a high prevalence of at-risk drinking in the U.S. military. Among HIV-infected individuals, alcohol abuse confers additional risk for adverse health outcomes. In the military, however, the characteristics of HIV-infected individuals who engage in high-risk drinking are not well defined. The purpose of this study was to assess risk factors associated with at-risk drinking in an HIV-positive longitudinal cohort of DoD beneficiaries. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Annual prevalence of at-risk drinking was calculated for members of the U.S. Military HIV Natural History Study who initiated highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) during or after January 2006 through May 2014; each participant completed at least one self-reported alcohol survey within a year of HAART initiation. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression was used to analyze factors associated with at-risk drinking. RESULTS: Sixty-six percent of subjects (495/752) reported at-risk drinking on at least one survey after HAART initiation. At-risk drinkers were more likely to be Active Duty compared to Retired (OR 0.65 95% CI [0.46, 0.92]). In multivariate models, Caucasian race (OR 3.30 95% CI [2.31, 4.71]); Hispanic/other race (OR 2.17 95% CI [1.51, 3.14]) and younger age (OR 0.61 per 10 years older, [95%CI 0.49, 0.75]) were significantly associated with at-risk drinking. Single relationship status (OR 1.51 95% CI [1.08, 2.13]) was also associated with at-risk drinking. CONCLUSIONS: Consistent with general alcohol consumption patterns in the military, we found a high prevalence of at-risk drinking among individuals with HIV infection, which was associated most closely with young, non-African Americans. Targeting interventions toward this group will be important to reduce at-risk drinking and its potential for HIV-related complications.

Lower health-related quality of life predicts all-cause hospitalization among HIV-infected individuals.

BACKGROUND: Health-related quality of life (HRQOL) is a patient-centered outcome measure used in assessing the individual's overall functional health status but studies looking at HRQOL as a predictive tool are few. This work examines whether summary scores of HRQOL are predictive of all-cause hospitalization in the US Military HIV Natural History Study (NHS) cohort. METHODS: The Short Form 36 (SF-36) was administered between 2006 and 2010 to 1711 NHS cohort members whose hospitalization records we had also obtained. Physical component summary scores (PCSS) and mental component summary scores (MCSS) were computed based on standard algorithms. Terciles of PCSS and MCSS were generated with the upper terciles (higher HRQOL) as referent groups. Proportional hazards multivariate regression models were used to estimate the hazard of hospitalization for PCSS and MCSS separately (models 1 and 2, respectively) and combined (model 3). RESULTS: The hazard ratios (HR) of hospitalization were respectively 2.12 times (95% CI: 1.59-2.84) and 1.59 times (95% CI: 1.19-2.14) higher for the lower and middle terciles compared to the upper PCSS tercile. The HR of hospitalization was 1.33 times (95% CI: 1.02-1.73) higher for the lower compared to the upper MCSS tercile. Other predictors of hospitalization were CD4 count < 200 cells/mm3 (HR = 2.84, 95% CI: 1.96, 4.12), CD4 count 200-349 cells/mm3 (HR = 1.67, 95% CI: 1.24, 2.26), CD4 count 350-499 cells/mm3 (HR = 1.41, 95% CI: 1.09, 1.83), plasma viral load > 50 copies/mL (HR = 1.82, 95% CI: 1.46, 2.26), and yearly increment in duration of HIV infection (HR = 0.94, 95% CI: 0.93, 0.96) (model 3). CONCLUSION: After controlling for factors associated with hospitalization among those with HIV, both PCSS and MCSS were predictive of all-cause hospitalization in the NHS cohort. HRQOL assessment using the SF-36 may be useful in stratifying hospitalization risk among HIV-infected populations.

Health-related quality of life among military HIV patients on antiretroviral therapy.

OBJECTIVE: The aims of this study were: (i) to determine the factors associated with HRQOL at baseline in our cohort, and (ii) to evaluate if there are differences in baseline HRQOL measures by antiretroviral treatment. METHODS: The Short Form 36 (SF-36) was administered between 2006 and 2010 among members of the United States HIV Natural History Study cohort (NHS), and participants who completed the SF-36 were included in the study. Physical component summary (PCS) and mental component summary (MCS) scores were computed based on standard algorithms. Multivariate linear regression models were constructed for PCS and MCS to estimate the association between selected variables and HRQOL scores. RESULTS: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) was not independently associated with HRQOL scores. Factors associated with PCS were CD4+ count < 200 cells/mm3 (ß = -5.84, 95% CI: -7.63, -4.06), mental comorbidity (ß = -2.82, 95% CI: -3.79, -1.85), medical comorbidity (ß = -2.51, 95% CI: -3.75, -1.27), AIDS diagnosis (ß = -2.38, 95% CI: -3.79, -0.98). Others were gender, military rank, marital status, and age. Factors independently associated with MCS were CD4+ count < 200 cells/mm3 (ß = -1.93, 95% CI: -3.85, -0.02), mental comorbidity (ß = -6.25, 95% CI: -7.25, -5.25), age (ß = 0.37, 95% CI: 0.14, 0.60), and being African American (ß = 1.55, 95% CI: 0.63, 2.47). CONCLUSION: Among military active duty and beneficiaries with HIV, modifiable factors associated with HRQOL measures included advanced HIV disease, and mental or medical comorbidity. Addressing these factors may improve quality of life of HIV-infected individuals in the NHS cohort.

The Association between Sexually Transmitted Infections, Length of Service and Other Demographic Factors in the U.S. Military.

BACKGROUND: Numerous studies have found higher rates of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) among military personnel than the general population, but the cumulative risk of acquiring STIs throughout an individual's military career has not been described. METHODS: Using ICD-9 diagnosis codes, we analyzed the medical records of 100,005 individuals from all service branches, divided in equal cohorts (n = 6,667) between 1997 and 2011. As women receive frequent STI screening compared to men, these groups were analyzed separately. Incidence rates were calculated for pathogen-specific STIs along with syndromic diagnoses. Descriptive statistics were used to characterize the individuals within each accession year cohort; repeat infections were censored. RESULTS: The total sample included 29,010 females and 70,995 males. The STI incidence rates (per 100 person-years) for women and men, respectively, were as follows: chlamydia (3.5 and 0.7), gonorrhea (1.1 and 0.4), HIV (0.04 and 0.07) and syphilis (0.14 and 0.15). During the study period, 22% of women and 3.3% of men received a pathogen-specific STI diagnosis; inclusion of syndromic diagnoses increased STI prevalence to 41% and 5.5%, respectively. In multivariate analyses, factors associated with etiologic and syndromic STIs among women included African American race, younger age and fewer years of education. In the overall sample, increasing number of years of service was associated with an increased likelihood of an STI diagnosis (p<0.001 for trend). CONCLUSION: In this survey of military personnel, we found very high rates of STI acquisition throughout military service, especially among women, demonstrating that STI-related risk is significant and ongoing throughout military service. Lower STI incidence rates among men may represent under-diagnosis and demonstrate a need for enhancing male-directed screening and diagnostic interventions.

Characterizing the Association Between Alcohol and HIV Virologic Failure in a Military Cohort on Antiretroviral Therapy.

BACKGROUND: The effects of at-risk drinking on HIV infection remain controversial. We investigated the impact of self-reported alcohol consumption on surrogate markers of HIV progression among individuals initiated on highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). METHODS: We analyzed individuals who were surveyed on alcohol use within a year of HAART initiation between 2006 and 2014. At-risk drinking was defined as consumption of at least 3 or 4 drinks/d, or 7 and 14 drinks/wk among women and men, respectively. We performed time-updated generalized estimating equation logistic regression to determine the effect of at-risk drinking on virologic failure (VF) and mixed-effects linear regression on CD4 count reconstitution, controlling for potential confounders. RESULTS: Of 801 individuals initiated on HAART, 752 individuals with alcohol survey data were included in the analysis. Of these, 45% (n = 336) met criteria for at-risk drinking at HAART initiation on at least 1 survey. The rates of VF were 4.30 per 100 person-years (95% CI [2.86, 6.21]) for at-risk drinkers and 2.45 per 100 person-years (95% CI [1.57, 3.65]) for individuals without at-risk drinking. At-risk drinking was not significantly associated with VF (OR 1.73, 95% CI [0.92, 3.25]) (p = 0.087) or CD4 reconstitution (CD4 increase 11.4; 95% CI [-19.8, 42.7]) in univariate analyses; however, in our multivariate model, a statistically significant relationship between VF and at-risk drinking was observed (OR 2.28, 95% CI [ 1.01, 5.15]). CONCLUSIONS: We found a high proportion of at-risk drinking in our military cohort, which was predictive of VF in multivariate analysis. Given alcohol's effect on myriad HIV and non-HIV outcomes, interventions to decrease the prevalence of at-risk drinking among HIV-infected individuals are warranted.

Seroprevalence and seroincidence of herpes simplex virus (2006-2010), syphilis (2006-2010), and vaccine-preventable human papillomavirus subtypes (2000-2010) among US military personnel.

BACKGROUND: Sexually transmitted infections have historically been burdensome in military populations. We describe the seroprevalence and seroincidence of vaccine-preventable human papillomavirus (VP-HPV) subtypes in a sample of 200 servicemen, along with the seroprevalence and seroincidence of herpes simplex virus (HSV-1/2) and syphilis in a sample of 200 men and 200 women. METHODS: Sera from 200 men, along with associated demographic data, were obtained and tested for HPV serotypes at service entry and 10 years later. Similarly, 200 active-duty men and 200 active-duty women were tested for HSV-1/2 at entry to service and 4 years later. RESULTS: The baseline prevalence of VP-HPV subtypes was 14.5%, and cumulative seroincidence of new infection was 34% over a 10-year period (n = 68). Of these, 63% (n = 43) represented HPV-6, HPV-11, or both; 18% of new infections were either HPV-16 or HPV-18, and 19% (n = 13) were a mixture of all 4 strains. At entry to military service, 33.5% of men were seropositive for HSV-1 and 1.5% were positive for HSV-2; seroincidence was 3.4 and 1.1 per 100 person-years, respectively. Among women, 39% were seropositive for HSV-1 and 4.0% for HSV-2; seroincidence was 5.5 and 3.3 per 100 person-years, respectively. There were 2 prevalent and 3 incident cases of syphilis. CONCLUSIONS: Sexually transmitted infections in military populations are highly prevalent, incident, and epidemiologically distinct. Our data show the rates of HPV and HSV-1/2 acquisition that are higher than those seen in the general public, again highlighting the need for continued preventive efforts. Consideration of universal HPV vaccination among men is warranted.

A single dose of benzathine penicillin G is as effective as multiple doses of benzathine penicillin G for the treatment of HIV-infected persons with early syphilis.

BACKGROUND: Treatment guidelines recommend the use of a single dose of benzathine penicillin G (BPG) for treating early syphilis in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected persons. However, data supporting this recommendation are limited. We examined the efficacy of single-dose BPG in the US Military HIV Natural History Study. METHODS: Subjects were included if they met serologic criteria for syphilis (ie, a positive nontreponemal test [NTr] confirmed by treponemal testing). Response to treatment was assessed at 13 months and was defined by a ≥4-fold decline in NTr titer. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression models were utilized to examine factors associated with treatment response. RESULTS: Three hundred fifty subjects (99% male) contributed 478 cases. Three hundred ninety-three cases were treated exclusively with BPG (141 with 1 dose of BPG). Treatment response was the same among those receiving 1 or >1 dose of BPG (92%). In a multivariate analysis, older age (hazard ratio [HR], 0.82 per 10-year increase; 95% confidence interval [CI], .73-.93) was associated with delayed response to treatment. Higher pretreatment titers (reference NTr titer <1:64; HR, 1.94 [95% CI, 1.58-2.39]) and CD4 counts (HR, 1.07 for every 100-cell increase [95% CI, 1.01-1.12]) were associated with a faster response to treatment. Response was not affected by the number of BPG doses received (reference, 1 dose of BPG; HR, 1.11 [95% CI, .89-1.4]). CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort, additional BPG doses did not affect treatment response. Our data support the current recommendations for the use of a single dose of BPG to treat HIV-infected persons with early syphilis.

HIV outcomes in Hepatitis B virus coinfected individuals on HAART.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the impact of hepatitis B virus (HBV) coinfection on HIV outcomes in the highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) era continues to be a critical priority given the high prevalence of coinfection and the potential for impaired immunologic, virologic, and clinical recovery. METHODS: Participants from the US Military HIV Natural History Study with an HIV diagnosis on HAART and serologically confirmed HBV infection status at HAART initiation (HI) were classified into 4 HBV infection (HB) groups. HIV virologic, immunologic, and clinical outcomes were evaluated by HB status. RESULTS: Of 2536 HIV-positive HAART recipients, with HBV testing results available to determine HB status in the HI window, HB status at HI was classified as HB negative (n = 1505; 66%), resolved HB (n = 518; 23%), isolated hepatitis B core antigen (n = 139; 6%), or chronic HB (n = 131; 6%). HIV virologic suppression and failure at 6 months or 1 year were not significantly different by HB status. A significantly faster rate of increase in CD4 cell count during the period between 4 and 12 years was observed for chronic HB relative to HB negative. Chronic and resolved HB were associated with an increased risk of AIDS/death compared with HB-negative individuals (chronic HB-hazard ratio = 1.68, 95% confidence interval: 1.05 to 2.68; resolved HB-hazard ratio = 1.61, 95% confidence interval: 1.15 to 2.25). CONCLUSIONS: HB status did not have a significant impact on HIV virologic outcomes, however, CD4 cell count reconstitution after HI and the risk of an AIDS event or death after HI may be associated with HB status.

Race/ethnicity and HAART initiation in a military HIV infected cohort.

BACKGROUND: Prior studies have suggested that HAART initiation may vary by race/ethnicity. Utilizing the U.S. military healthcare system, which minimizes confounding from healthcare access, we analyzed whether timing of HAART initiation and the appropriate initiation of primary prophylaxis among those at high risk for pneumocystis pneumonia (PCP) varies by race/ethnicity. METHODS: Participants in the U.S. Military HIV Natural History Study from 1998-2009 who had not initiated HAART before 1998 and who, based on DHHS guidelines, had a definite indication for HAART (CD4 <200, AIDS event or severe symptoms; Group A), an indication to consider HAART (including CD4 <350; Group B) or electively started HAART (CD4 >350; Group C) were analyzed for factors associated with HAART initiation. In a secondary analysis, participants were also evaluated for factors associated with starting primary PCP prophylaxis within four months of a CD4 count <200 cells/mm3. Multiple logistic regression was used to compare those who started vs. delayed therapy; comparisons were expressed as odds ratios (OR). RESULTS: 1262 participants were evaluated in the analysis of HAART initiation (A = 208, B = 637, C = 479 [62 participants were evaluated in both Groups A and B]; 94% male, 46% African American, 40% Caucasian). Race/ethnicity was not associated with HAART initiation in Groups A or B. In Group C, African American race/ethnicity was associated with lower odds of initiating HAART (OR 0.49, p = 0.04). Race and ethnicity were also not associated with the initiation of primary PCP prophylaxis among the 408 participants who were at risk. CONCLUSIONS: No disparities in the initiation of HAART or primary PCP prophylaxis according to race/ethnicity were seen among those with an indication for therapy. Among those electively initiating HAART at the highest CD4 cell counts, African American race/ethnicity was associated with decreased odds of starting. This suggests that free healthcare can potentially overcome some of the observed disparities in HIV care, but that unmeasured factors may contribute to differences in elective care decisions.

Increasing hepatitis C prevalence and associated risk behaviors among incarcerated young adults.

This study sought to assess the rate of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and associated risk factors in young adults 18-28 years of age who were incarcerated in the Rhode Island Department of Corrections. The majority of participants reported injection drug use and engaged in high-risk behaviors such as needle sharing. Despite having these risk factors and believing themselves to be at risk, the majority of youths reported no prior HCV testing. Correctional facilities present a unique opportunity to detect HCV infection and provide risk reduction education to young adults, the population with the highest rates of new infections in the US. Seventy-two incarcerated individuals with a history of drug use were approached to participate in the study; 68 completed the screening and interview. The rate of HCV infection among adults <30 years of age and incarcerated at the Rhode Island Department of Corrections in 2011 was high (24%). In 1998, the rate of HCV among inmates <30 years of age at the same facility was only 11.4%. These data follow the same increase in HCV infection rates among young adults observed in non-incarcerated young adults across the nation. HCV is the leading cause of liver failure and hepatocellular carcinoma in the US. Despite a decline and leveling in HCV incidence nationwide, alarming increases in HCV rates among adolescents and young adults have been reported during the period between the years 1992 and 2005. This disquieting epidemic is attributable to injection drug use amongst young adults.

The VACS index predicts mortality in a young, healthy HIV population starting highly active antiretroviral therapy.

BACKGROUND: The Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) index is a weighted combination of age and 8 clinical variables. It has been well correlated with all-cause mortality among HIV-infected patients. The US Military HIV Natural History Study (NHS) cohort provides a different validation population profile, being younger and healthier. A significant portion of the US HIV population is similarly composed; so, evaluation of the VACS index in this population is of great interest. METHODS: NHS subjects have medical history and laboratory data collected at 6-month visits. We performed an external validation of the VACS index in the NHS evaluating correlation, discrimination, and calibration for all-cause mortality after highly active antiretroviral therapy initiation (HI). We then tested whether combining longitudinal VACS index values at different time points improves prediction of mortality. RESULTS: The VACS index at 1 year after HI was well correlated with all-cause mortality (Harrell c statistic 0.78), provided good discrimination (log-rank P < 0.05), and was marginally well calibrated using Brier score. Accounting for VACS index at HI and 6 months after HI significantly improved a standard model, including only the VACS index at 1 year after HI (net reclassification improvement = 25.2%, 95% CI: 10.9% to 48.9%). CONCLUSIONS: The VACS index was well correlated and provided good discrimination with respect to all-cause mortality among highly active antiretroviral therapy initiating subjects in the NHS. Moderate overprediction of mortality in this young, healthy population suggests minor recalibration that could improve fit among similar patients. Considering VACS index at HI and 6 months improved outcome prediction and allowed earlier risk assessment.

Contributions of the Global Emerging Infections Surveillance and Response System Network to global health security in 2011.

In its 15th year, the Global Emerging Infections Surveillance and Response System (GEIS) continued to make significant contributions to global public health and emerging infectious disease surveillance worldwide. As a division of the US Department of Defense's Armed Forces Health Surveillance Center since 2008, GEIS coordinated a network of surveillance and response activities through collaborations with 33 partners in 76 countries. The GEIS was involved in 73 outbreak responses in fiscal year 2011. Significant laboratory capacity-building initiatives were undertaken with 53 foreign health, agriculture and/or defense ministries, as well as with other US government entities and international institutions, including support for numerous national influenza centers. Equally important, a variety of epidemiologic training endeavors reached over 4,500 individuals in 96 countries. Collectively, these activities enhanced the ability of partner countries and the US military to make decisions about biological threats and design programs to protect global public health as well as global health security.