Forecasting the burden of disease from diabetes under the scenarios of specific risk factors control in China in 2030 / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective: To forecast mortality, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes, and to simulate the impact of controlling risk factors by 2030 in China. Methods: We simulated the burden of disease from diabetes in six scenarios according to the development goals of risk factors control by the WHO and Chinese government. Based on the theory of comparative risk assessment and the estimates of the burden of disease for China from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015, we used the proportional change model to project the number of deaths, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes under different scenarios of risk factors control in 2030. Results: If the trends in exposures to risk factors from 1990 to 2015 continued. Mortality, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes would increase to 32.57/100 000, 17.32/100 000, and 0.84% by 2030, respectively. During that time, mortality, age-standardized mortality and probability of premature mortality for males would all be higher than for females. If the goals of controlling risk factors were all achieved, the number of deaths from diabetes in 2030 would decrease by 62.10% compared to the predicted numbers based on the historical trends in exposure to risk factors, and the probability of premature mortality would drop to 0.29%. If only the exposure to a single risk factor were achieved by 2030, high fasting plasma glucose control would have the greatest impact on diabetes, resulting in a 56.00% reduction in deaths compared to the predicted numbers based on the historical trends, followed by high BMI (4.92%), smoking (0.65%), and low physical activity (0.53%). Conclusions: Risk factors control plays an important role in reducing the number of deaths, age-standardized mortality rate, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes. We suggest taking comprehensive measures to control relevant risk factors for certain populations and regions, to achieve the goal of reducing the burden of disease from diabetes as expected.

Analysis of the core knowledge level of chronic diseases in Chinese adults and related factors / 中华预防医学杂志

Objective: To understand the core knowledge level and influencing factors of chronic disease prevention and control in Adults in China, and to provide a scientific basis for formulating chronic disease prevention and control measures. Methods: In this study, cross-sectional survey and quota sampling were used to recruit 173 819 permanent residents aged 18 and above from 302 counties of adult chronic diseases and nutrition surveillance in China to conduct an online questionnaire survey, including basic information and core knowledge of chronic diseases. The scores of the core knowledge of chronic disease prevention and control were described by median and interquartile range, the Wilcoxon rank sum test or the Kruskal Wallis test was used for the inter-group comparison, and the correlation factors of the total score were analyzed by the multilinear regression model. Results: A total of 172 808 participants were surveyed in 302 counties and districts, of which 42.60%(73 623) were male and 57.40%(99 185) were female; The proportion of respondents aged 18-44, 45-59, and 60 years old and above was 54.74% (94 594), 30.91% (53 423) and 14.35% (24 791), respectively. The total score of the core knowledge of chronic prevention and control in the total population was 66(13), and the scores of different characteristic groups were different, and the differences were statistically significant: the eastern region had the highest score at 67(11) (H=840.66, P<0.01), the urban 66(12) was higher than the rural 65(14) (Z=-31.35, P<0.01), and the male 66(14) was lower than female 66(12) (Z=-11.66, P<0.01), 18-24 years old 64(13) was lower than other age groups(H=115.80, P<0.01), and undergraduate degree and above had the highest score compared to other academic qualifications, with 68(9) points(H=2 547.25, P<0.01). Multivariate analysis showed that eastern (t=27.42, P<0.01), central (t=17.33, P<0.01), urban (t=5.69, P<0.01), female (t=17.81, P<0.01), high age (t=46.04, P<0.01) and high education (t=57.77, P<0.01) had higher scores of core knowledge of chronic disease prevention and control than other groups, the scores of core knowledge of chronic disease prevention and control of professional and technical personnel (t=8.63, P<0.01), state enterprises and institutions (t=38.67, P<0.01), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery and water conservancy production (t=5.30, P<0.01), production, transportation and commercial personnel (t=24.87, P<0.01), and other workers (t=8.89, P<0.01) were higher than those of non-employed people. Conclusion: There are differences in the total scores of the core knowledge of chronic disease prevention and control in different characteristics of people in China, and in the future, health education on the prevention and treatment of chronic diseases should be strengthened for specific groups to improve the knowledge level of residents.

Prediction on the burden of disease of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and simulation of the effectiveness of controlling risk factors in China by 2030 / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective: To forecast the burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in China by 2030 and evaluate the effectiveness of controlling risk factors based on the predictive model. Methods: Based on the relationship between the death of COPD and exposure to risk factors and the theory of comparative risk assessment, we used the estimates of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD2015) for China, targets for controlling risk factors, and proportion change model to project the number of deaths, standardized mortality rate, and probability of premature mortality from chronic respiratory diseases by 2030 in different scenarios and to evaluate the impact of controlling the included risk factors to the disease burden of COPD in 2030. Results: If the trends in exposure to risk factors from 1990 to 2015 continued, the number of deaths and the mortality for COPD would be 1.06 million and 73.85 per 100 000 population in China by 2030, respectively, with an increase of 15.81% and 10.69% compared to those in 2015. Compared to 2015, the age-standardized mortality rate would decrease by 38.88%, and the premature mortality would reduce by 52.73% by 2030. If the smoking rate and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentration separately achieve their control targets by 2030, there would be 0.34 and 0.27 million deaths that could be avoided compared to the predicted numbers based on the natural trends in exposure to risk factors and the probability of premature death would reduce to 0.59% and 0.52%, respectively. If the control targets of all included risk factors were achieved by 2030, a total of 0.53 million deaths would be averted, and the probability of premature death would decrease to 0.44%. Conclusions: If the exposures to risk factors continued as showed from 1990 to 2015, the number of deaths and mortality for COPD would increase by 2030 compared to 2015, and the standardized mortality and the probability of premature death would decrease significantly, which would achieve the targets of preventing and controlling COPD. If the exposure to the included risk factors all achieved the targets by 2030, the burden of COPD would be reduced, suggesting that the control of tobacco use and air pollution should be enhanced to prevent and control COPD.

Prediction of disease burden caused by malignant cancer in the context of risk factor control in China, 2030 / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective: To predict the number of deaths, standardized mortality and probability of premature mortality caused by malignant cancer in the context of risk factor control at different levels in China in 2030, and assess the possibility of achieving the target of reducing the probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer. Methods: According to the risk factor control standard for malignant cancer used both at home and abroad, the results of China from Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 were used to calculate the population attributable fraction of the risk factors. Based on the comparative risk assessment theory, the deaths of malignant cancer were classified as attributable deaths and un-attributable deaths. Proportional change model was used to predict risk factor exposure and un-attributable deaths of malignant cancer in the future, then the number of deaths, standardized mortality rate and probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer in 2030 was estimated. Data analyses were performed by using software R 3.6.1. Results: If the risk factor exposure level during 1990-2015 remains, the number of deaths, standardized mortality rate, and probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer would increase to 3.62 million, 153.96/100 000 and 8.92% by 2030, respectively. If the risk factor exposure control level meets the requirement, the probability of premature mortality from cancer in people aged 30-70 years would drop to 7.57% by 2030. Conclusions: The control of risk factor exposure will play an important role in reducing deaths, standardized mortality rate and probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer. But more efforts are needed to achieve the goals of Health China Action.

Mortality trend of chronic respiratory diseases in China, 1990-2019 / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective: To analyze mortality and its trend of chronic respiratory diseases (CRD) in China from 1990 to 2019. Methods: Based on the provincial results of China from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, the average annual percent change (AAPC) of standardized mortality rates of different CRDs were analyzed by using Joinpoint 4.8.0.1, and the age-standardized mortality rate of CRD was calculated by using the GBD 2019 world standard population. Based on the comparative risk assessment theory of GBD, the attributable deaths due to 12 CRD risk factors were estimated, including smoking, indoor air pollution, occupational gas exposure, particulates and smog exposure, environmental particulate pollution, low temperature, passive smoking, ozone pollution, occupational exposure to silica, occupational asthma, high body mass index, high temperature and occupational exposure to asbestos. Results: From 1990 to 2019, the number of deaths and standardized mortality of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) showed a downward trend (P<0.001). The number of COPD deaths decreased from 1 244 000 (912 000 - 1 395 000) in 1990 to 1 037 000 (889 000 - 1 266 000) in 2019. AAPC=-0.9% (95%CI: -1.5% - -0.3%), P<0.001; The standardized mortality rate decreased from 217.9/100 000 (163.3/100 000 - 242.0/100 000) in 1990 to 65.2/100 000 (55.5/100 000 - 80.1/100 000) in 2019. AAPC= -4.2% (95%CI:-5.2% - -3.2%), P<0.001. The number of deaths from asthma decreased from 40 000 (30 000 - 58 000) in 1990 to 25 000 (20 000 - 31 000) in 2019. AAPC=-2.0% (95%CI: -2.6% - -1.4%), P<0.001; The standardized mortality rate of asthma decreased from 6.4/100 000 (4.7/100 000 - 9.5/100 000) in 1990 to 1.5/100 000 (1.2/100 000 - 1.9/100 000) in 2019. AAPC=-5.1% (95%CI: -5.8% - -4.4%), P<0.001. The number of pneumoconiosis deaths decreased from 11 000 (8 000 - 14 000) in 1990 to 10 000 (8 000 - 14 000) in 2019, AAPC=-0.2%(95%CI:-0.4% - 0.1%), P=0.200; The standardized mortality rate of pneumoconiosis decreased from 1.4/100 000 (1.0/100 000 - 1.7/100 000) in 1990 to 0.5/100 000 (0.4/100 000 - 0.7/100 000) in 2019. AAPC=-3.1% (95%CI: -3.4% - -2.8%), P<0.001. The number of deaths from pulmonary interstitial diseases and pulmonary sarcoidosis increased from 3 000 (3 000 - 6 000) in 1990 to 8 000 (6 000 - 10 000) in 2019, AAPC=3.5% (95%CI: 2.7% - 4.2%), P<0.001; The corresponding standardized mortality rate changed little from 1990 to 2019, and AAPC was not statistically significant.The age-standardized mortality rates of different CRDs were higher in men than those in women. In 1990 and 2019, the mortality rates of COPD, asthma, pneumoconiosis and interstitial pulmonary disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis increased with age. In 2019, the population attributable fractions (PAFs) for smoking, environmental particulate pollution, occupational gas exposure, particulate and smog exposure, low temperature exposure and passive smoking were 71.1% (68.0% - 74.3%), 24.7% (20.1% - 30.0%), 19.3% (13.0% - 25.4%), 15.7% (13.6% - 18.3%) and 8.8% (4.5% - 13.1%) respectively in men, and the PAFs for environmental particulate pollution, smoking, low temperature exposure, occupational gas exposure, particulate and smog exposure, and passive smoking were 24.1% (19.6% - 29.3%), 21.9% (18.7% - 25.2%), 16.4% (14.0% - 19.2%), 15.6% (10.2% - 21.1%) and 14.7% (7.9% - 21.3%) respectively in women. Conclusions: During 1990-2019, the overall death level of CRD decreased significantly in China, but it is still at high level in the world. Active prevention and control measures should be taken to reduce the death level caused by CRD.

Prediction on the cardio-cerebrovascular death and probability of premature death caused by common risk factors in China in 2030 / 中华预防医学杂志

Objective: Predictive models were used to evaluate the impact of common risk factors on the number of cardio-cerebrovascular deaths and the probability of premature death. Methods: Using the data for China estimated by the Global Burden of Disease study 2015 (GBD 2015), we calculated the population attribution fraction (PAF) of risk factors. The proportional change model was used to estimate the number of unattributable deaths by 2030, and to predict the number of deaths, mortality, standardized mortality and probability of premature death by 2030. Results: According to the natural change trend of risk factors from 1990 to 2015, the number of deaths and mortality would reach 6.12 million and 428.53/100 000 by 2030, with an increase of 59.92% and 52.87%. By 2030, the probability of premature death from cardio-cerebrovascular diseases among Chinese aged 30-70 years old would continue to decline, from 11.43% to 11.28% for men, and from 5.79% to 4.43% for women. If the goals of all included risk factors were reached by 2030, 2 289 200 cardio-cerebrovascular deaths would be avoided. If only the exposure to a single risk factor was achieved by 2030, blood pressure, total cholesterol, and fine particulate matter exposure were the three most important factors affecting cardio-cerebrovascular deaths, which would reduce 1 332 800, 609 100 and 306 800 deaths, respectively. Among the involved risk factors, the control of blood pressure would mostly decrease the number of deaths due to ischemic heart disease and hemorrhagic stroke, about 677 300 and 391 100 deaths, accordingly. Conclusion: The control of risk factors is of great significance in reducing deaths and probability of premature death due to cardio-cerebrovascular diseases. If the control targets of all risk factors could be achieved by 2030, the burden of cardio-cerebrovascular diseases would be reduced greatly.

Hypertension Prevalence, Awareness, Treatment, and Control and Their Associated Socioeconomic Factors in China: A Spatial Analysis of A National Representative Survey / 生物医学与环境科学（英文）

Objective@#We aimed to investigate and interpret the associations between socioeconomic factors and the prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control of hypertension at the provincial level in China.@*Methods@#A nationally and provincially representative sample of 179,059 adults from the China Chronic Disease and Nutrition Surveillance study in 2015-2016 was used to estimate hypertension burden. The spatial Durbin error model was fitted to investigate socioeconomic factors associated with hypertension indicators.@*Results@#Overall, it was estimated that 29.20% of the participants were hypertensive nationwide, among whom, 34.32% were aware of their condition, 27.69% had received antihypertensive treatment, and 7.81% had controlled their condition. Per capita gross domestic product (GDP) was associated with hypertension prevalence (coefficient: -2.95, 95% @*Conclusion@#Hypertension indicators were not only directly influenced by socioeconomic factors of local area but also indirectly affected by characteristics of geographical neighbors. Population-level strategies should involve optimizing supportive socioeconomic environment by integrating clinical care and public health services to decrease hypertension burden.

Mortality and years of life lost of colorectal cancer in China, 2005-2020: findings from the national mortality surveillance system / 中华医学杂志(英文版)

BACKGROUND@#Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the fourth cause of cancer death in China. We aimed to provide national and subnational estimates and changes of CRC premature mortality burden during 2005-2020.@*METHODS@#Data from multi-source on the basis of the national surveillance mortality system were used to estimate mortality and years of life lost (YLL) of CRC in the Chinese population during 2005-2020. Estimates were generated and compared for 31 provincial-level administrative divisions in China.@*RESULTS@#Estimated CRC deaths increased from 111.41 thousand in 2005 to 178.02 thousand in 2020; age-standardized mortality rate decreased from 10.01 per 100,000 in 2005 to 9.68 per 100,000 in 2020. Substantial reduction in CRC premature mortality burden, as measured by age-standardized YLL rate, was observed with a reduction of 10.20% nationwide. Marked differences were observed in the geographical patterns of provincial units, and they appeared to be obvious in areas with higher economic development. Population aging was the dominant driver which contributed to the increase in CRC deaths, followed by population growth and age-specific mortality change.@*CONCLUSIONS@#Substantial discrepancies were observed in the premature mortality burden of CRC across China. Targeted considerations were needed to promote a healthy lifestyle, expand cost-effective CRC early screening and diagnosis, and improve medical treatment to reduce CRC mortality among high-risk populations and regions with inadequate healthcare resources.

Current status and changes of disease burden of cardio-cerebrovascular diseases in 1990 and 2016 for Beijing people / 中华心血管病杂志

Objective: To investigate the current status and changes of disease burden of cardio-cerebrovascular diseases in 1990 and 2016 for Beijing people. Methods: Using the results of the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2016 (GBD 2016) to describe deaths status and disease burden of cardio-cerebrovascular diseases in Beijing. The measurement index included the total deaths, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLL), years lived with disability (YLD), and disability-adjusted years (DALY). Using the average world population from 2000 to 2025 as standard population to calculate the age-standardized mortality rate, DALY rate, YLL rate and YLD rate. Results: The age-standardized mortality rate of cardio-cerebrovascular diseases was 209.24 per 100 000. In 2016, DALY, YLL and YLD of cardio-cerebrovascular was 875.6, 733.6 and 142.0 thousand person-years, respectively, which has increased by 58.05%, 44.24% and 213.47%, respectively, than that in 1990. The age-standardized DALY rate and age-standardized YLL rate of cardio-cerebrovascular diseases in 2016 was 3 552.24 and 2 988.01 per 100 000 which has decreased by 47.90% and 52.43%, respectively, than that in 1990. The age-standardized YLD rate of cardio-cerebrovascular diseases in 2016 was 564.23 per 100 000 which increased by 5.10% than that in 1990. In 2016, the total death of cerebrovascular disease and ischemic heart disease was 17.6 thousand and 23.7 thousand, respectively. DALY was 396.3 and 393.6 thousand person-years in 2016, while 330.2 and 162.7 thousand person-years in 1990, which has increased by 20.02% and 141.92%, respectively. Conclusions: The disease burden of cardio-cerebrovascular disease is serious, especially the burden of cerebrovascular disease and ischemic heart disease. The disability burden of cerebrovascular disease is serious. The disease burden of ischemic heart disease has multiplied.

Burden of Cirrhosis and Other Chronic Liver Diseases Caused by Specific Etiologies in China, 1990-2016: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 / 生物医学与环境科学（英文）

Objective@#To estimate the burden of cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases caused by specific etiologies in China.@*Methods@#Data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 (GBD 2016) were used. We evaluated the burden by analyzing age-sex-province-specific prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of 33 provinces in China.@*Results@#From 1990 to 2016, prevalence cases in thousands increased by 73.7% from 6833.3 (95% : 6498.0-7180.6) to 11869.6 (95% : 11274.6-12504.7). Age-standardized mortality and DALY rates per 100,000 decreased by 51.2% and 53.3%, respectively. Male and elderly people (aged ≥ 60 years) preponderance were found for prevalence, mortality, and DALYs. The number of prevalence cases, deaths, and DALYs due to hepatitis C virus (HCV) increased by 86.6%, 8.7%, and 0.9%, respectively. Also, age-standardized prevalence rates decreased in 31 provinces, but increased in Yunnan and Shandong. The Socio-demographic Index (SDI) values were negatively correlated with age-standardized mortality and DALY rates by provinces in 2016; the correlation coefficients were -0.817 and -0.828, respectively.@*Conclusion@#Cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases remain a huge health burden in China, with the increase of population and the aging of population. Hepatitis B virus (HBV) remains the leading cause of the health burden in China.

Vegetable and Fruit Consumption among Chinese Adults and Associated Factors: A Nationally Representative Study of 170,847 Adults / 生物医学与环境科学（英文）

<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>This study examined vegetable and fruit (VF) consumption rate and its associated factors among Chinese adults.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>Nationally representative data from the 2013 China Chronic Disease Surveillance survey were used. Dietary intake data, including VF consumption during the last 12 months, were collected. All analyses were weighted to obtain nationally representative estimates. Associations between VF consumption and other factors (e.g., meal frequency and physical activity) were examined through logistic regression analysis.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>The average fruit consumption was 102.3 g/day (95% CI: 97.0-107.6) and the average vegetable consumption was 350.6 g/day (95% CI: 339.3-361.8). Over half (53.2%, 95% CI: 50.9-55.4) of Chinese adults met the VF consumption of 400 g/day recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO). Rural residents had a higher prevalence of low VF consumption rate than urban residents [49.20% (95% CI: 46.2%-52.2%) vs. 44.0% (95% CI: 41.7%-46.3%) P < 0.01]. Old age (OR = 1.01, 95% CI: 1.00-1.01), low educational level, low income, minority ethnicity (OR = 1.41, 95% CI: 1.15-1.74), underweight (OR = 1.17, 95% CI: 1.03-1.33), single marital status (OR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.08-1.33), low health literacy, irregular breakfast (OR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.04-1.38) or lunch (OR = 1.58, 95% CI: 1.26-1.99) habits, and no leisure-time physical activity were associated with low VF consumption.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>Only half of Chinese adults met the VF consumption recommended by the WHO. Low socio-economic status, irregular diet, and poor health literacy were likely associated with low VF consumption. National efforts and programs are needed to promote VF consumption.</p>

Prediction of 10-year Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk among Adults Aged 40-79 Years in China: a Nationally Representative Survey / 生物医学与环境科学（英文）

<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To establish the distribution of 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk among Chinese adults.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>We estimated the 10-year ASCVD risk by applying the 2013 American College of Cardiology/ American Heart Association pooled cohort equations (PCEs) to the data obtained from the 2010 China Chronic Disease and Risk Factor Surveillance that involved 61,541 participants (representing 520,158,652 Chinese adults) aged 40-79 years. We also compared the ASCVD risk with the 10-year ischemic cardiovascular disease (ICVD) risk, which was calculated using the simplified scoring tables recommended by the Chinese Guidelines for Prevention of Cardiovascular Diseases (Chinese model).</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>Based on the PCEs, the average 10-year ASCVD risk among adults without self-reported stroke or myocardial infraction was 12.5%. Approximately 247 million (47.4%) and 107 million (20.6%) adults had ⋝ 7.5% and > 20% 10-year ASCVD risks, respectively. The 10-year ASCVD risk > 20% was higher among men, less educated individuals, smokers, drinkers, and physically inactive individuals than among their counterparts. Overall, 29.0% of adults categorized using the Chinese model were overclassified with the PCEs.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>Our results define the distribution of 10-year ASCVD risk among Chinese adults. The 10-year ASCVD risk predicted by the PCEs was higher than the ICVD risk predicted by the Chinese model.</p>

The nationwide impact of injury-related deaths on average life expectancy in China / 生物医学与环境科学（英文）

To expand the evidence base to inform future public policy aimed at accident prevention, we investigated the impact of different categories of injury on average life expectancy in China. We used data from the National Death Cause Registration Information System and National Maternity and Children Health Surveillance databases, as well as 2010 population data from the National Bureau of Statistics. We then calculated the average life expectancy of the Chinese population, in addition to life expectancy after eliminating injury-related mortality. The average life expectancy of the Chinese population in 2010 was 74.93 years. After eliminating deaths due to injuries, the fourth leading cause of mortality in China, average life expectancy increased by 1.36 years. When this was broken down by population sub-groups, these gains were 1.76 and 0.79 years in men and women, 0.94 and 1.56 years in urban and rural residents, and 1.11, 1.30, and 1.67 years for residents in the Eastern, Central and Western regions respectively. After eliminating all categories of injury, the average life expectancy of the Chinese population was found to increase by 1.36 years. This figure was higher for males and residents of rural areas and Western China.

Association between mortality rate of hepatic carcinoma and the distance from Suihe River in Lingbi county, Anhui province / 中华预防医学杂志

<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To explore the association between mortality rate of hepatic carcinoma and the distance from Suihe River in Lingbi county, Suzhou, Anhui province.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>Using the disease mapping and spatial statistical analysis techniques,we described the spatial distributions of the mortality rate of hepatic carcinoma from 2005 to 2010 in Lingbi county. Taking the distance between villages and polluted rivers as proxy variable of environmental exposure, mortality rate of hepatic carcinoma in each village as dependant variable, and using the Glimmix model and Bayesian spatial model (BYM) to undertake the univariate and multivariate analysis, we investigatived the association between mortality rate of hepatic carcinoma and the water pollution of Suihe River in Lingbi county.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>Obvious clustering of high mortality rate of hepatic carcinoma along the polluted river was observed in Lingbi county. Results of Glimmix model showed that whether spatial autocorrelation was considered or not, closer to the polluted river has higher mortality rate of hepatic carcinoma. Results of univariate analysis of the BYM model showed that, compared with the villages far from the polluted river more than 12 km (the mortality rate of hepatic carcinoma was 33.12/100 000(1068/3 224 562) ), the RR values of the hepatic carcinoma mortality was 1.38(95%CI:1.06-1.82) for the villages apart from the polluted river within 6 km (the mortality rate of hepatic carcinoma was 42.48/100 000(777/1 829 064)), and 1.13 (95%CI:0.92-1.39) for villages apart from the river between 6 and 12 km (the mortality rate of hepatic carcinoma was 35.65/100 000(651/1 825 848)). In the BYM model multivariate analysis, adding the volume of fertilizer and pesticides used per cultivated area, GDP per capita to do multivariate analysis were, the relation between mortality rate of hepatic carcinoma and distance from polluted rivers remains unchanged.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>The mortality rate of hepatic carcinoma was associated with the exposure to the polluted river in Lingbi county. The polluted river may increase the hepatic carcinoma mortality of nearby residents.</p>

Exploratory development of automated coding software on the underlying causes of death / 中华流行病学杂志

To develop an automated coding software related to the underlying causes of death,based on the National Registration Information System on deaths,which could improve the quality of coding on the underlying causes of death in the conventional death surveillance system.Following the coding roles of the underlying death cause of ICD-IO and the design on principles of software of underlying death cause automated coding from some other countries,as well as in accordance with the coding strategy table from the USA,we implemented the automatization of the underlying death cause coding.Based on national registration information system on cause of death,an automated coding software of underlying death cause was developed with the coding correction rate closed to 85%.The automated coding software of underlying death cause could code the death cases of underlying death cause with high rate of correction,similar to that of the same kind softwares developed in other countries.

Pedestrian mortality between 2006 and 2010 in China: findings from non-police reported data / 生物医学与环境科学（英文）

Pedestrian safety in China is an important but largely neglected issue, in part due to the substantial under-reporting within police data. In this study we aimed to examine changes in pedestrian fatality between 2006 and 2010 in China using non-police reported data. A multi-year study was conducted based on the mortality data during 2006-2010 from the Disease Surveillance Points (DSP) data in China. Between 2006 and 2010, the crude pedestrian mortality increased from 7.0 to 10.5 per 100 000 populations. Annual pedestrian mortality from DSP data was 13 times in 2006 and 55 times in 2010 mortality for pedestrians and passengers from police-reported data in the corresponding years. After controlling for sex, age, and urban/rural, the mortality increased by 44% from 2006 to 2010 (adjusted mortality rate ratio (MRR)=1.11, 95% CI 1.10-1.12). The problem of pedestrian deaths is much more serious in China than that officially reported by the police. Significant and urgent efforts are needed to save lives of pedestrian in China.

Trend analysis on the mortality of cardiovascular diseases from 2004 to 2010 in China / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective To explore the trend and characteristics of cardiovascular disease mortality in China.Methods Mortality data from the National disease surveillance system from 2004 to 2010 was used.Underreporting was adjusted and trends were analyzed on the rates of crude mortality,standardized mortality and causes of death fraction among cardiovascular diseases.Results The total mortality of cardiovascular diseases increased from 240.03 to 268.92 per one hundred thousand during 2004 to 2010,with an average annual increase of 5.50 per one hundred thousand,with the annual increase of 2.17％.Data from all causes of death,ischemic heart disease,hypertensive heart disease,cerebrovascular disease,and other heart disease showed an upward trend,with the annual rise of 5.05％,2.08％,1.02％ and 2.66％ respectively while rheumatic heart disease showed a downward trend,with the declining rate of 7.02％ per annum.After eliminating the effect of aging,the trend remained the same but the slope was decreasing.The proportion of national cardiovascular mortality on total deaths increased annually by 37.46％ to 40.73％ from 2004 to 2010.The proportion of cerebrovascular disease remained unchanging but the proportion of ischemic heart disease showed a significant increase.The proportion of rheumatic heart disease declined while the proportion of other cardiovascular disease mortality showing a slight change.Conclusion In recent years,the cardiovascular mortality had significantly increased,which was mainly due to the increase of ischemic heart disease mortality.

Analysis on the clustering of liver cancer mortality in Lingbi county, Anhui province, from 2005 to2010 / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective To observe the mortality and its changes on liver cancer in the past 30 years as well as to describe the spatial distribution of liver cancer deaths between 2005 and 2010 in Lingbi,Anhui province.Methods Using the mortality data from 1973-1975 and from 2005 to 2010 in Lingbi to compare with the relative national and historical data,to observe the trend of rapid increase on liver cancer mortality in Lingbi.Using the Poisson model,BYM model and hotspot detection method,standardized mortality ratio (SMR),relative risk(RR) value of liver cancer deaths of each village were calculated and the clustering of high liver cancer deaths was identified.Results Through an increase of 223.7％ on the SMR of liver cancer in the past 30 years,the standardized mortality of liver cancer in Lingbi had an increase of 74.1 percent than the national level in 2005-2010 but it was 22.7％ lower than the country level in 1973-1975.The SMR and RR values and their P values were higher in the villages which were located along the Kuisui River.Data from the clustering analysis showed that there had been significantly positive autocorrelation at the altitude of 5300 meters,and a very obvious hot spot of liver cancer deaths existing along the Kuisui River,especially at the bifurcation of the old Sui River and new Sui River was observed.Conclusion There was an alarming increase of liver cancer mortality in the past 30 years in Lingbi.The high mortality area mainly covered the villages along the Kuisui River,suggesting that there were common risk factors for hepatocellular carcinoma in the population at risk.

Comparison of the Designing Effects (DE) among different designs related to complex sampling methods / 中华流行病学杂志

To compare the designing effects (DE) among different complex sampling designing programs.Data from the ‘2002 Chinese Nutrition and Health Survey' was used as an example to generate the sampling population,and statistical simulation method was used to estimate the values of DEs from six complex sampling designing programs.It was found that the values of DEs varied among the six complex sampling designing programs.The values of the DEs were associated with the sample sizes in a positive way,with more sample stages and less stratified categories.Reduction of the numbers of sample stages and detailing stratified categories could decrease the DE values so as to improve the DE.

Time-series analysis of ambient PM₁₀ pollution on residential mortality in Beijing / 中华预防医学杂志

<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To explore the short-term impact of ambient PM(10) on daily non-accidental death, cardiovascular and respiratory death of residents in Beijing.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>Mortality data of residents in Beijing during 2006 to 2009 were obtained from public health surveillance and information service center of Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, contemporaneous data of average daily air concentration of PM(10), SO(2), NO(2) were obtained from Beijing Environment Protection Bureau (year 2005 - 2006) and public website of Beijing environmental protection (year 2007 - 2009), respectively, contemporaneous meteorological data were obtained from china meteorological data sharing service system. Generalized addictive model (GAM) of time serial analysis was applied. In additional to the control of confounding factors such as long-term trend, day of the week effect, meteorological factors, lag effect and the effects of other atmospheric pollutants were also analyzed.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>During year 2006 to 2009, the number of average daily non-accidental death, respiratory disease caused death, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases caused death among Beijing residents were 140.1, 15.0, 65.8, respectively;contemporaneous medians of average daily air concentration of PM(10), SO(2), NO(2) were 123.0, 26.0, 58.0 µg/m(3), respectively;contemporaneous average atmosphere pressure, temperature and relative humidity were 10.1 kPa, 13.5°C and 51.9%, respectively. An exposure-response relationship between exposure to ambient PM(10) and increased daily death number was found as every 10 µg/m(3) increase in daily average concentration of PM(10), there was a 0.1267% (95%CI: 0.0824% - 0.1710%) increase in daily non-accidental death of residents, 0.1365% (95%CI: 0.0010% - 0.2720%) increase in respiratory death and 0.1239% (95%CI: 0.0589% - 0.1889%) increase in cardiovascular death. Ambient PM(10) had greatest influence on daily non-accidental and cardiovascular death of the same day, while its greatest influence on respiratory death occurred 5 days later.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>The ambient PM(10) pollution increased daily non-accidental, respiratory disease caused, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases caused deaths among residents in Beijing, and lag effect existed as for the effect of ambient PM(10) pollution on respiratory disease caused death.</p>