Long-term effectiveness of natalizumab in secondary progressive multiple sclerosis: A propensity-matched study.

Treatment options for secondary progressive MS (SPMS) are limited, especially considering that the new drugs recently approved are licensed for actively relapsing patients. We aimed to compare the disability progression in a real-world cohort of SPMS patients treated with natalizumab (NTZ) or interferon beta-1b (IFNb-1b). This multicenter retrospective enrolled patients with a diagnosis of SPMS according to 2014 Lublin criteria, who received NTZ or IFNb-1b for at least 48 months between the 1st June 2012 and the 15th May 2018 â€‹at 33 Italian MS centers contributing to the Italian MS Registry NTZ or IFNb-1b. Confirmed Expanded Disability Status Scale worsening (CEW) and progression independent of relapse (PIRA) were evaluated. In order to correct for non-randomization, a propensity score matching of the groups was performed. Out of 5206 MS patients identified at the time of data extraction, 421 SPMS patients treated with NTZ (224 [53.2%] females, mean age 45.3 â€‹± â€‹25.4 years) and 353 with IFNb-1b (133 [37.8%] females, mean age 48.5 â€‹± â€‹19.8 years) were enrolled. After applying the matching procedure, 102 patients were retained in the NTZ group and 98 in the IFNb-2b group. The proportion of patients who reached the 48-month 1-point CEW was significantly higher in IFNb-1b compared to NTZ group (58.2% versus 30.4%, p â€‹= â€‹0.01). The proportion of patients who developed PIRA at 48 months were significantly higher in IFNb-1b compared to NTZ (72.4% versus 40.2%, p â€‹= â€‹0.01). EDSS before treatment initiation and SPMS duration were risk factors for disability progression in terms of PIRA (HR 2.54, 25%CI 1.67-5.7; p â€‹= â€‹0.006 and HR 2.04, 25%CI 1.22-3.35; p â€‹= â€‹0.01, respectively). Patients treated with IFNb-1b were 1.64 times more to likely to develop PIRA (HR 1.64, 25%CI 1.04-4.87; p â€‹= â€‹0.001). Treatment with NTZ in SPMS patients showed more favorable disability outcomes compared to IFNb-1b with beneficial effects over 48 months.

Routine CSF parameters as predictors of disease course in multiple sclerosis: an MSBase cohort study.

BACKGROUND: It remains unclear whether routine cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) parameters can serve as predictors of multiple sclerosis (MS) disease course. METHODS: This large-scale cohort study included persons with MS with CSF data documented in the MSBase registry. CSF parameters to predict time to reach confirmed Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores 4, 6 and 7 and annualised relapse rate in the first 2 years after diagnosis (ARR2) were assessed using (cox) regression analysis. RESULTS: In total, 11 245 participants were included of which 93.7% (n=10 533) were persons with relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS). In RRMS, the presence of CSF oligoclonal bands (OCBs) was associated with shorter time to disability milestones EDSS 4 (adjusted HR=1.272 (95% CI, 1.089 to 1.485), p=0.002), EDSS 6 (HR=1.314 (95% CI, 1.062 to 1.626), p=0.012) and EDSS 7 (HR=1.686 (95% CI, 1.111 to 2.558), p=0.014). On the other hand, the presence of CSF pleocytosis (≥5 cells/µL) increased time to moderate disability (EDSS 4) in RRMS (HR=0.774 (95% CI, 0.632 to 0.948), p=0.013). None of the CSF variables were associated with time to disability milestones in persons with primary progressive MS (PPMS). The presence of CSF pleocytosis increased ARR2 in RRMS (adjusted R2=0.036, p=0.015). CONCLUSIONS: In RRMS, the presence of CSF OCBs predicts shorter time to disability milestones, whereas CSF pleocytosis could be protective. This could however not be found in PPMS. CSF pleocytosis is associated with short-term inflammatory disease activity in RRMS. CSF analysis provides prognostic information which could aid in clinical and therapeutic decision-making.

Multiple Sclerosis Progression and Relapse Activity in Children.

Importance: Although up to 20% of patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) experience onset before 18 years of age, it has been suggested that people with pediatric-onset MS (POMS) are protected against disability because of greater capacity for repair. Objective: To assess the incidence of and factors associated with progression independent of relapse activity (PIRA) and relapse-associated worsening (RAW) in POMS compared with typical adult-onset MS (AOMS) and late-onset MS (LOMS). Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study on prospectively acquired data from the Italian MS Register was performed from June 1, 2000, to September 30, 2021. At the time of data extraction, longitudinal data from 73 564 patients from 120 MS centers were available in the register. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcomes included age-related cumulative incidence and adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for PIRA and RAW and associated factors. Exposures: Clinical and magnetic resonance imaging features, time receiving disease-modifying therapy (DMT), and time to first DMT. Results: After applying the inclusion and exclusion criteria, the study assessed 16 130 patients with MS (median [IQR] age at onset, 28.7 [22.8-36.2 years]; 68.3% female). Compared with AOMS and LOMS, patients with POMS had less disability, exhibited more active disease, and were exposed to DMT for a longer period. A first 48-week-confirmed PIRA occurred in 7176 patients (44.5%): 558 patients with POMS (40.4%), 6258 patients with AOMS (44.3%), and 360 patients with LOMS (56.8%) (P < .001). Factors associated with PIRA were older age at onset (AOMS vs POMS HR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.30-1.55; LOMS vs POMS HR, 2.98; 95% CI, 2.60-3.41; P < .001), longer disease duration (HR, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.04-1.05; P < .001), and shorter DMT exposure (HR, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.64-0.74; P < .001). The incidence of PIRA was 1.3% at 20 years of age, but it rapidly increased approximately 7 times between 21 and 30 years of age (9.0%) and nearly doubled for each age decade from 40 to 70 years (21.6% at 40 years, 39.0% at 50 years, 61.0% at 60 years, and 78.7% at 70 years). The cumulative incidence of RAW events followed a similar trend from 20 to 60 years (0.5% at 20 years, 3.5% at 30 years, 7.8% at 40 years, 14.4% at 50 years, and 24.1% at 60 years); no further increase was found at 70 years (27.7%). Delayed DMT initiation was associated with higher risk of PIRA (HR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.00-1.34; P = .04) and RAW (HR, 1.75; 95% CI, 1.28-2.39; P = .001). Conclusions and Relevance: PIRA can occur at any age, and although pediatric onset is not fully protective against progression, this study's findings suggest that patients with pediatric onset are less likely to exhibit PIRA over a decade of follow-up. However, these data also reinforce the benefit for DMT initiation in patients with POMS, as treatment was associated with reduced occurrence of both PIRA and RAW regardless of age at onset.

Evaluation of drivers of treatment switch in relapsing multiple sclerosis: a study from the Italian MS Registry.

BACKGROUND: Active relapsing-remitting (RR) and secondary progressive (SP) multiple sclerosis (MS) are currently defined as "relapsing MS" (RMS). The aim of this cross-sectional study was to assess drivers of treatment switches due to clinical relapses in a population of RMS patients collected in the Italian MS and Related Disorders Register (I-MS&RD). METHODS: RRMS and SPMS patients with at least one relapse in a time window of 2 years before of data extraction were defined as RMS. Factors associated with disease-modifying therapy (DMT) switching due to clinical activity were assessed through multivariable logistic regression models in which treatment exposure was included as the last recorded DMT and the last DMT's class [moderate-efficacy (ME), high-efficacy (HE) DMTs and anti-CD20 drugs]. RESULTS: A cohort of 4739 RMS patients (4161 RRMS, 578 SPMS) was extracted from the I-MS&RD. A total of 2694 patients switching DMTs due to relapses were identified. Switchers were significantly (p < 0.0001) younger, less disabled, more frequently affected by an RR disease course in comparison to non-switcher patients. The multivariable logistic regression models showed that Alemtuzumab (OR 0.08, 95% CI 0.02-0.37), Natalizumab (0.48, 0.30-0.76), Ocrelizumab (0.1, 0.02-0.45) and Rituximab (0.23, 0.06-0.82) exposure was a protective factor against treatment switch due to relapses. Moreover, the use of HE DMTs (0.43, 0.31-0.59), especially anti-CD20 drugs (0.14, 0.05-0.37), resulted to be a protective factor against treatment switch due to relapses in comparison with ME DMTs. CONCLUSIONS: More than 50% of RMS switched therapy due to disease activity. HE DMTs, especially anti-CD20 drugs, significantly reduce the risk of treatment switch.

Risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis after early worsening of disability.

BACKGROUND: Whether progression independent of relapse activity (PIRA) heralds earlier onset of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS) and more rapid accumulation of disability during SPMS remains to be determined. We investigated the association between early PIRA, relapse-associated worsening (RAW) of disability and time to SPMS, subsequent disability progression and their response to therapy. METHODS: This observational cohort study included patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) from the MSBase international registry across 146 centres and 39 countries. Associations between the number of PIRA and RAW during early multiple sclerosis (MS) (the initial 5 years of MS onset) were analysed with respect to: time to SPMS using Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for disease characteristics; and disability progression during SPMS, calculated as the change of Multiple Sclerosis Severity Scores over time, using multivariable linear regression. RESULTS: 10 692 patients met the inclusion criteria: 3125 (29%) were men and the mean MS onset age was 32.2 years. A higher number of early PIRA (HR=1.50, 95% CI 1.28 to 1.76, p<0.001) and RAW (HR=2.53, 95% CI 2.25 to 2.85, p<0.001) signalled a higher risk of SPMS. A higher proportion of early disease-modifying therapy exposure (per 10%) reduced the effect of early RAW (HR=0.94, 95% CI 0.89 to 1.00, p=0.041) but not PIRA (HR=0.97, 95% CI 0.91 to 1.05, p=0.49) on SPMS risk. No association between early PIRA/RAW and disability progression during SPMS was found. CONCLUSIONS: Early disability increase during RRMS is associated with a greater risk of SPMS but not the rate of disability progression during SPMS. The deterioration associated with early relapses represents a potentially treatable risk factor of SPMS. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ACTRN12605000455662).

Comparative Effectiveness of Autologous Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplant vs Fingolimod, Natalizumab, and Ocrelizumab in Highly Active Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis.

Importance: Autologous hematopoietic stem cell transplant (AHSCT) is available for treatment of highly active multiple sclerosis (MS). Objective: To compare the effectiveness of AHSCT vs fingolimod, natalizumab, and ocrelizumab in relapsing-remitting MS by emulating pairwise trials. Design, Setting, and Participants: This comparative treatment effectiveness study included 6 specialist MS centers with AHSCT programs and international MSBase registry between 2006 and 2021. The study included patients with relapsing-remitting MS treated with AHSCT, fingolimod, natalizumab, or ocrelizumab with 2 or more years study follow-up including 2 or more disability assessments. Patients were matched on a propensity score derived from clinical and demographic characteristics. Exposure: AHSCT vs fingolimod, natalizumab, or ocrelizumab. Main outcomes: Pairwise-censored groups were compared on annualized relapse rates (ARR) and freedom from relapses and 6-month confirmed Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score worsening and improvement. Results: Of 4915 individuals, 167 were treated with AHSCT; 2558, fingolimod; 1490, natalizumab; and 700, ocrelizumab. The prematch AHSCT cohort was younger and with greater disability than the fingolimod, natalizumab, and ocrelizumab cohorts; the matched groups were closely aligned. The proportion of women ranged from 65% to 70%, and the mean (SD) age ranged from 35.3 (9.4) to 37.1 (10.6) years. The mean (SD) disease duration ranged from 7.9 (5.6) to 8.7 (5.4) years, EDSS score ranged from 3.5 (1.6) to 3.9 (1.9), and frequency of relapses ranged from 0.77 (0.94) to 0.86 (0.89) in the preceding year. Compared with the fingolimod group (769 [30.0%]), AHSCT (144 [86.2%]) was associated with fewer relapses (ARR: mean [SD], 0.09 [0.30] vs 0.20 [0.44]), similar risk of disability worsening (hazard ratio [HR], 1.70; 95% CI, 0.91-3.17), and higher chance of disability improvement (HR, 2.70; 95% CI, 1.71-4.26) over 5 years. Compared with natalizumab (730 [49.0%]), AHSCT (146 [87.4%]) was associated with marginally lower ARR (mean [SD], 0.08 [0.31] vs 0.10 [0.34]), similar risk of disability worsening (HR, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.54-2.09), and higher chance of disability improvement (HR, 2.68; 95% CI, 1.72-4.18) over 5 years. AHSCT (110 [65.9%]) and ocrelizumab (343 [49.0%]) were associated with similar ARR (mean [SD], 0.09 [0.34] vs 0.06 [0.32]), disability worsening (HR, 1.77; 95% CI, 0.61-5.08), and disability improvement (HR, 1.37; 95% CI, 0.66-2.82) over 3 years. AHSCT-related mortality occurred in 1 of 159 patients (0.6%). Conclusion: In this study, the association of AHSCT with preventing relapses and facilitating recovery from disability was considerably superior to fingolimod and marginally superior to natalizumab. This study did not find evidence for difference in the effectiveness of AHSCT and ocrelizumab over a shorter available follow-up time.

Moving forward through the in silico modeling of multiple sclerosis: Treatment layer implementation and validation.

Multiple sclerosis is an autoimmune inflammatory disease that affects the central nervous system through chronic demyelination and loss of oligodendrocytes. Since the relapsing-remitting form is the most prevalent, relapse-reducing therapies are a primary choice for specialists. Universal Immune System Simulator is an agent-based model that simulates the human immune system dynamics under physiological conditions and during several diseases, including multiple sclerosis. In this work, we extended the UISS-MS disease layer by adding two new treatments, i.e., cladribine and ocrelizumab, to show that UISS-MS can be potentially used to predict the effects of any existing or newly designed treatment against multiple sclerosis. To retrospectively validate UISS-MS with ocrelizumab and cladribine, we extracted the clinical and MRI data from patients included in two clinical trials, thus creating specific cohorts of digital patients for predicting and validating the effects of the considered drugs. The obtained results mirror those of the clinical trials, demonstrating that UISS-MS can correctly simulate the mechanisms of action and outcomes of the treatments. The successful retrospective validation concurred to confirm that UISS-MS can be considered a digital twin solution to be used as a support system to inform clinical decisions and predict disease course and therapeutic response at a single patient level.

The risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis is geographically determined but modifiable.

Geographical variations in the incidence and prevalence of multiple sclerosis have been reported globally. Latitude as a surrogate for exposure to ultraviolet radiation but also other lifestyle and environmental factors are regarded as drivers of this variation. No previous studies evaluated geographical variation in the risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis, an advanced form of multiple sclerosis that is characterized by steady accrual of irreversible disability. We evaluated differences in the risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis in relation to latitude and country of residence, modified by high-to-moderate efficacy immunotherapy in a geographically diverse cohort of patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. The study included relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis patients from the global MSBase registry with at least one recorded assessment of disability. Secondary progressive multiple sclerosis was identified as per clinician diagnosis. Sensitivity analyses used the operationalized definition of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis and the Swedish decision tree algorithm. A proportional hazards model was used to estimate the cumulative risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis by country of residence (latitude), adjusted for sex, age at disease onset, time from onset to relapsing-remitting phase, disability (Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score) and relapse activity at study inclusion, national multiple sclerosis prevalence, government health expenditure, and proportion of time treated with high-to-moderate efficacy disease-modifying therapy. Geographical variation in time from relapsing-remitting phase to secondary progressive phase of multiple sclerosis was modelled through a proportional hazards model with spatially correlated frailties. We included 51 126 patients (72% female) from 27 countries. The median survival time from relapsing-remitting phase to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis among all patients was 39 (95% confidence interval: 37 to 43) years. Higher latitude [median hazard ratio = 1.21, 95% credible interval (1.16, 1.26)], higher national multiple sclerosis prevalence [1.07 (1.03, 1.11)], male sex [1.30 (1.22, 1.39)], older age at onset [1.35 (1.30, 1.39)], higher disability [2.40 (2.34, 2.47)] and frequent relapses [1.18 (1.15, 1.21)] at inclusion were associated with increased hazard of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis. Higher proportion of time on high-to-moderate efficacy therapy substantially reduced the hazard of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis [0.76 (0.73, 0.79)] and reduced the effect of latitude [interaction: 0.95 (0.92, 0.99)]. At the country-level, patients in Oman, Tunisia, Iran and Canada had higher risks of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis relative to the other studied regions. Higher latitude of residence is associated with a higher probability of developing secondary progressive multiple sclerosis. High-to-moderate efficacy immunotherapy can mitigate some of this geographically co-determined risk.

Boosting multiple sclerosis lesion segmentation through attention mechanism.

Magnetic resonance imaging is a fundamental tool to reach a diagnosis of multiple sclerosis and monitoring its progression. Although several attempts have been made to segment multiple sclerosis lesions using artificial intelligence, fully automated analysis is not yet available. State-of-the-art methods rely on slight variations in segmentation architectures (e.g. U-Net, etc.). However, recent research has demonstrated how exploiting temporal-aware features and attention mechanisms can provide a significant boost to traditional architectures. This paper proposes a framework that exploits an augmented U-Net architecture with a convolutional long short-term memory layer and attention mechanism which is able to segment and quantify multiple sclerosis lesions detected in magnetic resonance images. Quantitative and qualitative evaluation on challenging examples demonstrated how the method outperforms previous state-of-the-art approaches, reporting an overall Dice score of 89% and also demonstrating robustness and generalization ability on never seen new test samples of a new dedicated under construction dataset.

Disability accrual in primary and secondary progressive multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Some studies comparing primary and secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS, SPMS) report similar ages at onset of the progressive phase and similar rates of subsequent disability accrual. Others report later onset and/or faster accrual in SPMS. Comparisons have been complicated by regional cohort effects, phenotypic differences in sex ratio and management and variable diagnostic criteria for SPMS. METHODS: We compared disability accrual in PPMS and operationally diagnosed SPMS in the international, clinic-based MSBase cohort. Inclusion required PPMS or SPMS with onset at age ≥18 years since 1995. We estimated Andersen-Gill hazard ratios for disability accrual on the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), adjusted for sex, age, baseline disability, EDSS score frequency and drug therapies, with centre and patient as random effects. We also estimated ages at onset of the progressive phase (Kaplan-Meier) and at EDSS milestones (Turnbull). Analyses were replicated with physician-diagnosed SPMS. RESULTS: Included patients comprised 1872 with PPMS (47% men; 50% with activity) and 2575 with SPMS (32% men; 40% with activity). Relative to PPMS, SPMS had older age at onset of the progressive phase (median 46.7 years (95% CI 46.2-47.3) vs 43.9 (43.3-44.4); p<0.001), greater baseline disability, slower disability accrual (HR 0.86 (0.78-0.94); p<0.001) and similar age at wheelchair dependence. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate later onset of the progressive phase and slower disability accrual in SPMS versus PPMS. This may balance greater baseline disability in SPMS, yielding convergent disability trajectories across phenotypes. The different rates of disability accrual should be considered before amalgamating PPMS and SPMS in clinical trials.

REal-World effectIveNess of claDribine for patients with multiple sclerosis: a Sicilian multicentric experience (REWIND study).

BACKGROUND: cladribine tablets is a highly effective option for the treatment of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS). OBJECTIVE: to evaluate the effectiveness of cladribine in a real-world setting. METHODS: this prospective real-world study consecutively screened all RRMS patients from seven different MS centers in Sicily (Italy), who completed the 2-year treatment course of cladribine tablets in the period between 11th March 2019 and 31st October 2021. Data about Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), relapses, previous treatments, adverse events (AEs) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) were collected. Patients who were previously treated with other DMTs were further stratified in moderately active treatment (MAT) and highly active treatment (HAT) patients. RESULTS: a total of 217 patients, (70% women, with mean age of 38.4 ± 11.3 years), were enrolled. Fifty patients (23.0%) were naïve to treatment and 167 (77%) switched from another disease modifying therapies. After the second year of treatment, about 80% of were EDSS progression free, 88% remained relapse-free at T24, and 48% of patients were MRI activity-free. Kaplan Meier analyses showed significant differences between MT and HAT in terms of time to first clinical relapse (HR: 2.43, IC 1.02 - 5.76; p=0.04), time to the first new T1-gadolinium enhancing lesion (HR: 3.43, IC 1.35 - 8.70; p= 0.009) and time to MRI worsening (HR: 2.42, IC 1.15 - 5.09; p= 0.02). CONCLUSION: this study confirmed that cladribine is an effective treatment for MS, in particular in naïve patients and in those who have switched from MATs.

Early non-disabling relapses are important predictors of disability accumulation in people with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: The prognostic significance of non-disabling relapses in people with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) is unclear. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether early non-disabling relapses predict disability accumulation in RRMS. METHODS: We redefined mild relapses in MSBase as 'non-disabling', and moderate or severe relapses as 'disabling'. We used mixed-effects Cox models to compare 90-day confirmed disability accumulation events in people with exclusively non-disabling relapses within 2 years of RRMS diagnosis to those with no early relapses; and any early disabling relapses. Analyses were stratified by disease-modifying therapy (DMT) efficacy during follow-up. RESULTS: People who experienced non-disabling relapses within 2 years of RRMS diagnosis accumulated more disability than those with no early relapses if they were untreated (n = 285 vs 4717; hazard ratio (HR) = 1.29, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.00-1.68) or given platform DMTs (n = 1074 vs 7262; HR = 1.33, 95% CI = 1.15-1.54), but not if given high-efficacy DMTs (n = 572 vs 3534; HR = 0.90, 95% CI = 0.71-1.13) during follow-up. Differences in disability accumulation between those with early non-disabling relapses and those with early disabling relapses were not confirmed statistically. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that early non-disabling relapses are associated with a higher risk of disability accumulation than no early relapses in RRMS. This risk may be mitigated by high-efficacy DMTs. Therefore, non-disabling relapses should be considered when making treatment decisions.

Comparative effectiveness in multiple sclerosis: A methodological comparison.

BACKGROUND: In the absence of evidence from randomised controlled trials, observational data can be used to emulate clinical trials and guide clinical decisions. Observational studies are, however, susceptible to confounding and bias. Among the used techniques to reduce indication bias are propensity score matching and marginal structural models. OBJECTIVE: To use the comparative effectiveness of fingolimod vs natalizumab to compare the results obtained with propensity score matching and marginal structural models. METHODS: Patients with clinically isolated syndrome or relapsing remitting MS who were treated with either fingolimod or natalizumab were identified in the MSBase registry. Patients were propensity score matched, and inverse probability of treatment weighted at six monthly intervals, using the following variables: age, sex, disability, MS duration, MS course, prior relapses, and prior therapies. Studied outcomes were cumulative hazard of relapse, disability accumulation, and disability improvement. RESULTS: 4608 patients (1659 natalizumab, 2949 fingolimod) fulfilled inclusion criteria, and were propensity score matched or repeatedly reweighed with marginal structural models. Natalizumab treatment was associated with a lower probability of relapse (PS matching: HR 0.67 [95% CI 0.62-0.80]; marginal structural model: 0.71 [0.62-0.80]), and higher probability of disability improvement (PS matching: 1.21 [1.02 -1.43]; marginal structural model 1.43 1.19 -1.72]). There was no evidence of a difference in the magnitude of effect between the two methods. CONCLUSIONS: The relative effectiveness of two therapies can be efficiently compared by either marginal structural models or propensity score matching when applied in clearly defined clinical contexts and in sufficiently powered cohorts.

Variability of the response to immunotherapy among subgroups of patients with multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: This study assessed the effect of patient characteristics on the response to disease-modifying therapy (DMT) in multiple sclerosis (MS). METHODS: We extracted data from 61,810 patients from 135 centers across 35 countries from the MSBase registry. The selection criteria were: clinically isolated syndrome or definite MS, follow-up ≥ 1 year, and Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score ≥ 3, with ≥1 score recorded per year. Marginal structural models with interaction terms were used to compare the hazards of 12-month confirmed worsening and improvement of disability, and the incidence of relapses between treated and untreated patients stratified by their characteristics. RESULTS: Among 24,344 patients with relapsing MS, those on DMTs experienced 48% reduction in relapse incidence (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.52, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.45-0.60), 46% lower risk of disability worsening (HR = 0.54, 95% CI = 0.41-0.71), and 32% greater chance of disability improvement (HR = 1.32, 95% CI = 1.09-1.59). The effect of DMTs on EDSS worsening and improvement and the risk of relapses was attenuated with more severe disability. The magnitude of the effect of DMT on suppressing relapses declined with higher prior relapse rate and prior cerebral magnetic resonance imaging activity. We did not find any evidence for the effect of age on the effectiveness of DMT. After inclusion of 1985 participants with progressive MS, the effect of DMT on disability mostly depended on MS phenotype, whereas its effect on relapses was driven mainly by prior relapse activity. CONCLUSIONS: DMT is generally most effective among patients with lower disability and in relapsing MS phenotypes. There is no evidence of attenuation of the effect of DMT with age.

Unmet needs and gaps in the identification of secondary progression in multiple sclerosis: a Southern Italy healthcare professionals' perspective.

OBJECTIVE: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic disease with different clinical courses and a tendency to worsening. The relapsing-remitting MS presents acute onset and relapses of neurological symptoms, followed by their remission. This form can convert to secondary progressive MS (SPMS) with irreversible neurological worsening and disability. The identification of signs, symptoms, markers of progression, and strategies to manage MS patients is mandatory to allow early identification of those at higher risk of conversion to SPMS, for prompt intervention to cope with the progression of the disease. METHODS: A panel of Italian experts from Southern Italy have reviewed the current knowledge on MS and its management and identified the crucial tools for SPMS recognition. RESULTS: More effective communication between patients and clinicians should be established, with the support of digital tools. Moreover, the improvement in the clinical use of biomarkers for progression (cellular structures and tissue organization, such as neurofilaments and chitinase 3-like 1, axonal and neurons density) and of instrumental analyses for recognition of whole-brain atrophy, chronic active lesions, spinal cord lesions and atrophy, and the improvement the combination of the Expanded Disability Status Scale and the evaluation of cognitive dysfunction are discussed. CONCLUSION: Given the availability of a pharmacological option, adequate education both for patients, regarding the evolution of the disease and the specific treatment, and for professionals, to allow more effective and sensitive communication and the best use of diagnostic and management tools, could represent a strategy to improve patient management and their quality of life.

Disease-Modifying Treatments and Time to Loss of Ambulatory Function in Patients With Primary Progressive Multiple Sclerosis.

Importance: Except for ocrelizumab, treatment options in primary progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS) are lacking. Objective: To investigate the effectiveness of DMTs on the risk of becoming wheelchair dependent in a real-world population of patients with PPMS. Design, Setting, and Participants: This was a multicenter, observational, retrospective, comparative effectiveness research study. Data were extracted on November 28, 2018, from the Italian multiple sclerosis register and analyzed from June to December 2021. Mean study follow-up was 11 years. Included in the study cohort were patients with a diagnosis of PPMS and at least 3 years of Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) evaluations and 3 years of follow-up. Main Outcomes and Measures: The risk of reaching an EDSS score of 7.0 was assessed through multivariable Cox regression models. Exposures: Patients who received DMT before the outcome were considered treated. DMT was assessed as a time-dependent variable and by class of DMT (moderately and highly effective). Results: From a total of 3298 patients with PPMS, 2633 were excluded because they did not meet the entry criteria for the phase 3, multicenter, randomized, parallel-group, double-blind, placebo-controlled study to evaluate the efficacy and safety of ocrelizumab in adults with PPMS (ORATORIO) trial. Among the remaining 665 patients (mean [SD] age, 43.0 [10.7] years; 366 female patients [55.0%]), 409 were further selected for propensity score matching (288 treated and 121 untreated patients). In the matched cohort, during the study follow-up, 37% of patients (152 of 409) reached an EDSS score of 7.0 after a mean (SD) follow-up of 10.6 (5.6) years. A higher EDSS score at baseline (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.32; 95% CI, 1.13-1.55; P < .001), superimposed relapses (aHR, 2.37; 95% CI, 1.24-4.54; P = .009), and DMT exposure (aHR, 1.75; 95% CI, 1.04-2.94; P = .03) were associated with a higher risk of an EDSS score of 7.0, whereas the interaction term between DMT and superimposed relapses was associated with a reduced risk of EDSS score of 7.0 (aHR, 0.33; 95% CI, 0.16-0.71; P = .004). Similar findings were obtained when treatment according to DMT class was considered and when DMT was included as a time-dependent covariate. These results were confirmed in the subgroup of patients with available magnetic resonance imaging data. Conclusions and Relevance: Results of this comparative effectiveness research study suggest that inflammation also occurs in patients with PPMS, may contribute to long-term disability, and may be associated with a reduced risk of becoming wheelchair dependent by current licensed DMTs.

Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score (MSSS) improves the accuracy of individualized prediction in MS.

BACKGROUND: The MSBase prediction model of treatment response leverages multiple demographic and clinical characteristics to estimate hazards of relapses, confirmed disability accumulation (CDA), and confirmed disability improvement (CDI). The model did not include Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score (MSSS), a disease duration-adjusted ranked score of disability. OBJECTIVE: To incorporate MSSS into the MSBase prediction model and compare model accuracy with and without MSSS. METHODS: The associations between MSSS and relapse, CDA, and CDI were evaluated with marginal proportional hazards models adjusted for three principal components representative of patients' demographic and clinical characteristics. The model fit with and without MSSS was assessed with penalized r2 and Harrell C. RESULTS: A total of 5866 MS patients were started on disease-modifying therapy during prospective follow-up (age 38.4 ± 10.6 years; 72% female; disease duration 8.5 ± 7.7 years). Including MSSS into the model improved the accuracy of individual prediction of relapses by 31%, of CDA by 23%, and of CDI by 24% (Harrell C) and increased the amount of variance explained for relapses by 49%, for CDI by 11%, and for CDA by 10% as compared with the original model. CONCLUSION: Addition of a single, readily available metric, MSSS, to the comprehensive MSBase prediction model considerably improved the individual accuracy of prognostics in MS.

Association of Latitude and Exposure to Ultraviolet B Radiation With Severity of Multiple Sclerosis: An International Registry Study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The severity of multiple sclerosis (MS) varies widely among individuals. Understanding the determinants of this heterogeneity will help clinicians optimize the management of MS. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between latitude of residence, UV B radiation (UVB) exposure, and the severity of MS. METHODS: This observational study used the MSBase registry data. The included patients met the 2005 or 2010 McDonald diagnostic criteria for MS and had a minimum dataset recorded in the registry (date of birth, sex, clinic location, date of MS symptom onset, disease phenotype at baseline and censoring, and ≥1 Expanded Disability Status Scale score recorded). The latitude of each study center and cumulative annualized UVB dose at study center (calculated from National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) at ages 6 and 18 years and the year of disability assessment were calculated. Disease severity was quantified with Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score (MSSS). Quadratic regression was used to model the associations between latitude, UVB, and MSSS. RESULTS: The 46,128 patients who contributed 453,208 visits and a cumulative follow-up of 351,196 patient-years (70% women, mean age 39.2 ± 12 years, resident between latitudes 19°35' and 56°16') were included in this study. Latitude showed a nonlinear association with MS severity. In latitudes <40°, more severe disease was associated with higher latitudes (ß = 0.08, 95% CI 0.04-0.12). For example, this translates into a mean difference of 1.3 points of MSSS between patients living in Madrid and Copenhagen. No such association was observed in latitudes <40° (ß = -0.02, 95% CI -0.06 to 0.03). The overall disability accrual was faster in those with a lower level of estimated UVB exposure before the age of 6 years (ß = - 0.5, 95% CI -0.6 to 0.4) and 18 years (ß = - 0.6, 95% CI -0.7 to 0.4), as well as with lower lifetime UVB exposure at the time of disability assessment (ß = -1.0, 95% CI -1.1 to 0.9). DISCUSSION: In temperate zones, MS severity is associated with latitude. This association is mainly, but not exclusively, driven by UVB exposure contributing to both MS susceptibility and severity.

Progression is independent of relapse activity in early multiple sclerosis: a real-life cohort study.

Disability accrual in multiple sclerosis may occur as relapse-associated worsening or progression independent of relapse activity. The role of progression independent of relapse activity in early multiple sclerosis is yet to be established. The objective of this multicentre, observational, retrospective cohort study was to investigate the contribution of relapse-associated worsening and progression independent of relapse activity to confirmed disability accumulation in patients with clinically isolated syndrome and early relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis, assessed within one year from onset and with follow-up ≥5 years (n = 5169). Data were extracted from the Italian Multiple Sclerosis Register. Confirmed disability accumulation was defined by an increase in Expanded Disability Status Scale score confirmed at 6 months, and classified per temporal association with relapses. Factors associated with progression independent of relapse activity and relapse-associated worsening were assessed using multivariable Cox regression models. Over a follow-up period of 11.5 ± 5.5 years, progression independent of relapse activity occurred in 1427 (27.6%) and relapse-associated worsening in 922 (17.8%) patients. Progression independent of relapse activity was associated with older age at baseline [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.19; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.13-1.25, P < 0.001], having a relapsing-remitting course at baseline (HR = 1.44; 95% CI 1.28-1.61, P < 0.001), longer disease duration at baseline (HR = 1.56; 95% CI 1.28-1.90, P < 0.001), lower Expanded Disability Status Scale at baseline (HR = 0.92; 95% CI 0.88-0.96, P < 0.001) and lower number of relapses before the event (HR = 0.76; 95% CI 0.73-0.80, P < 0.001). Relapse-associated worsening was associated with younger age at baseline (HR = 0.87; 95% CI 0.81-0.93, P < 0.001), having a relapsing-remitting course at baseline (HR = 1.55; 95% CI 1.35-1.79, P < 0.001), lower Expanded Disability Status Scale at baseline (HR = 0.94; 95% CI 0.89-0.99, P = 0.017) and a higher number of relapses before the event (HR = 1.04; 95% CI 1.01-1.07, P < 0.001). Longer exposure to disease-modifying drugs was associated with a lower risk of both progression independent of relapse activity and relapse-associated worsening (P < 0.001). This study provides evidence that in an early relapsing-onset multiple sclerosis cohort, progression independent of relapse activity was an important contributor to confirmed disability accumulation. Our findings indicate that insidious progression appears even in the earliest phases of the disease, suggesting that inflammation and neurodegeneration can represent a single disease continuum, in which age is one of the main determinants of disease phenomenology.

Factors driving delayed time to multiple sclerosis diagnosis: Results from a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a highly complex chronic inflammatory disease, in which a diagnostic delay could reduce the available therapeutic options. Our aim was to identify factors contributing to diagnostic delay in a MS population living in the municipality of Biancavilla. METHODS: This retrospective population-based study consecutively selected patients with MS diagnosed from 1992 to 2018 and resident in the city of Biancavilla. Socio-demographic and clinical data were collected through the iMed database. Date of final MS diagnosis was obtained and diagnostic delay was calculated. RESULTS: A total of 70 patients (66.7% women) were found affected by MS according to the 2011 McDonald criteria in the municipality of Biancavilla in the period between 2005 and 2010. The mean diagnostic delay in the MS cohort of Biancavilla was 33.8 ± 56 months [median 19.5, range 1-315]. The multivariate logistic regression confirmed that age ≥ 40 years, lower educational level (1-5 years) and motor symptoms at onset were associated to longer diagnostic delay. CONCLUSION: In this population-based study a mean delay of about 30 months occurred between initial symptoms and the MS diagnosis. Older age at onset, lower education level and motor symptoms at onset were associated to longer MS diagnostic delay.