Indirect impact of violent events on emergency department utilization and disease patterns.

BACKGROUND: The health effects of war and armed conflict on casualties and mental health of those directly exposed has been well described, but few studies have explored the indirect health effects of violent events. This paper assesses the indirect health impact of several violent events that took place in Beirut in 2013-2014 on ED visit utilization and disease patterns. METHODS: As tracked by media reports, there were 9 violent events in Beirut during 2013-2014. We compared visits to the Emergency Department of a major medical center during weeks when violent events happened and weeks without such events (the preceding week and the same week in preceding years). After re-coding de-identified data from the medical records of 23,067 patients, we assessed differences in the volume of visits, severity index, and discharge diagnoses. Individual control charts were used to analyze ED visit trends post-event. RESULTS: Comparisons of weeks with violent events and weeks without such events indicate that the socio-demographic characteristics of patients who visited the Emergency Department were similar. Patients seen during violent weeks were significantly more likely to be admitted to the hospital, and less likely to present with low acuity complaints, indicating greater complexity of their conditions. The discharge diagnoses that were significantly higher during violent event weeks included anxiety disorders, sprains, and gastritis. Daily ED visits dropped post events by 14.111%, p < 0.0001. CONCLUSIONS: The results indicate that violent events such as bombs, explosions, and terrorist attacks reverberate through the population, impact patterns of ED utilization immediately post-event and are associated with adverse health outcomes, even among those who are not directly affected by the events.

Physical inactivity, gender and culture in Arab countries: a systematic assessment of the literature.

BACKGROUND: Physical inactivity is associated with excess weight and adverse health outcomes. We synthesize the evidence on physical inactivity and its social determinants in Arab countries, with special attention to gender and cultural context. METHODS: We searched MEDLINE, Popline, and SSCI for articles published between 2000 and 2016, assessing the prevalence of physical inactivity and its social determinants. We also included national survey reports on physical activity, and searched for analyses of the social context of physical activity. RESULTS: We found 172 articles meeting inclusion criteria. Standardized data are available from surveys by the World Health Organization for almost all countries, but journal articles show great variability in definitions, measurements and methodology. Prevalence of inactivity among adults and children/adolescents is high across countries, and is higher among women. Some determinants of physical inactivity in the region (age, gender, low education) are shared with other regions, but specific aspects of the cultural context of the region seem particularly discouraging of physical activity. We draw on social science studies to gain insights into why this is so. CONCLUSIONS: Physical inactivity among Arab adults and children/adolescents is high. Studies using harmonized approaches, rigorous analytic techniques and a deeper examination of context are needed to design appropriate interventions.

The Burden of Mental Disorders in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, 1990-2013.

The Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) is witnessing an increase in chronic disorders, including mental illness. With ongoing unrest, this is expected to rise. This is the first study to quantify the burden of mental disorders in the EMR. We used data from the Global Burden of Disease study (GBD) 2013. DALYs (disability-adjusted life years) allow assessment of both premature mortality (years of life lost-YLLs) and nonfatal outcomes (years lived with disability-YLDs). DALYs are computed by adding YLLs and YLDs for each age-sex-country group. In 2013, mental disorders contributed to 5.6% of the total disease burden in the EMR (1894 DALYS/100,000 population): 2519 DALYS/100,000 (2590/100,000 males, 2426/100,000 females) in high-income countries, 1884 DALYS/100,000 (1618/100,000 males, 2157/100,000 females) in middle-income countries, 1607 DALYS/100,000 (1500/100,000 males, 1717/100,000 females) in low-income countries. Females had a greater proportion of burden due to mental disorders than did males of equivalent ages, except for those under 15 years of age. The highest proportion of DALYs occurred in the 25-49 age group, with a peak in the 35-39 years age group (5344 DALYs/100,000). The burden of mental disorders in EMR increased from 1726 DALYs/100,000 in 1990 to 1912 DALYs/100,000 in 2013 (10.8% increase). Within the mental disorders group in EMR, depressive disorders accounted for most DALYs, followed by anxiety disorders. Among EMR countries, Palestine had the largest burden of mental disorders. Nearly all EMR countries had a higher mental disorder burden compared to the global level. Our findings call for EMR ministries of health to increase provision of mental health services and to address the stigma of mental illness. Moreover, our results showing the accelerating burden of mental health are alarming as the region is seeing an increased level of instability. Indeed, mental health problems, if not properly addressed, will lead to an increased burden of diseases in the region.

Expanding ART for treatment and prevention of HIV in South Africa: estimated cost and cost-effectiveness 2011-2050.

BACKGROUND: Antiretroviral Treatment (ART) significantly reduces HIV transmission. We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis of the impact of expanded ART in South Africa. METHODS: We model a best case scenario of 90% annual HIV testing coverage in adults 15-49 years old and four ART eligibility scenarios: CD4 count <200 cells/mm(3) (current practice), CD4 count <350, CD4 count <500, all CD4 levels. 2011-2050 outcomes include deaths, disability adjusted life years (DALYs), HIV infections, cost, and cost per DALY averted. Service and ART costs reflect South African data and international generic prices. ART reduces transmission by 92%. We conducted sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: Expanding ART to CD4 count <350 cells/mm(3) prevents an estimated 265,000 (17%) and 1.3 million (15%) new HIV infections over 5 and 40 years, respectively. Cumulative deaths decline 15%, from 12.5 to 10.6 million; DALYs by 14% from 109 to 93 million over 40 years. Costs drop $504 million over 5 years and $3.9 billion over 40 years with breakeven by 2013. Compared with the current scenario, expanding to <500 prevents an additional 585,000 and 3 million new HIV infections over 5 and 40 years, respectively. Expanding to all CD4 levels decreases HIV infections by 3.3 million (45%) and costs by $10 billion over 40 years, with breakeven by 2023. By 2050, using higher ART and monitoring costs, all CD4 levels saves $0.6 billion versus current; other ART scenarios cost $9-194 per DALY averted. If ART reduces transmission by 99%, savings from all CD4 levels reach $17.5 billion. Sensitivity analyses suggest that poor retention and predominant acute phase transmission reduce DALYs averted by 26% and savings by 7%. CONCLUSION: Increasing the provision of ART to <350 cells/mm3 may significantly reduce costs while reducing the HIV burden. Feasibility including HIV testing and ART uptake, retention, and adherence should be evaluated.

Medication use, gender, and socio-economic status in Lebanon: analysis of a national survey.

From data collected in Lebanon by the 1999 National Household Health Expenditures and Utilization Survey an analysis was made of reported medication use (n = 14,142). Seventy-two percent of the population aged 25-64 reported taking a medication in the month preceding the survey. Medications with high frequencies of reported use were analgesics, psychotropics, antibiotics and vitamins. Women were more than one and a half times more likely than men to report taking any medication (OR = 1.6), and significantly more likely to report taking eight of the 19 medication types analyzed. Analyses of the association of medication use with socio-economic variables show different effects for education and employment (inversely correlated with higher use), and higher socio-economic status (positively correlated with higher use). Multivariate analyses were carried out on two of the frequently used medications, antibiotic and prescription psychotropic use, to further explore the simultaneous effects of socio-economic variables The results of the analysis high-light a number of potential areas which may be targeted for intervention, in particular the higher use of antibiotics in rural areas, the greater use of psychotropics by women, and the possible obstacles to obtaining needed medications for those with lower incomes.