Does Time to Asystole in Donors After Circulatory Death Impact Recipient Outcome in Liver Transplantation?

BACKGROUND: The agonal phase can vary following treatment withdrawal in donor after circulatory death (DCD). There is little evidence to support when procurement teams should stand down in relation to donor time to death (TTD). We assessed what impact TTD had on outcomes following DCD liver transplantation. METHODS: Data were extracted from the UK Transplant Registry on DCD liver transplant recipients from 2006 to 2021. TTD was the time from withdrawal of life-sustaining treatment to asystole, and functional warm ischemia time was the time from donor systolic blood pressure and/or oxygen saturation falling below 50 mm Hg and 70%, respectively, to aortic perfusion. The primary endpoint was 1-y graft survival. Potential predictors were fitted into Cox proportional hazards models. Adjusted restricted cubic spline models were generated to further delineate the relationship between TTD and outcome. RESULTS: One thousand five hundred fifty-eight recipients of a DCD liver graft were included. Median TTD in the entire cohort was 13 min (interquartile range, 9-17 min). Restricted cubic splines revealed that the risk of graft loss was significantly greater when TTD ≤14 min. After 14 min, there was no impact on graft loss. Prolonged hepatectomy time was significantly associated with graft loss (hazard ratio, 1.87; 95% confidence interval, 1.23-2.83; P = 0.003); however, functional warm ischemia time had no impact (hazard ratio, 1.00; 95% confidence interval, 0.44-2.27; P > 0.9). CONCLUSIONS: A very short TTD was associated with increased risk of graft loss, possibly because of such donors being more unstable and/or experiencing brain stem death as well as circulatory death. Expanding the stand down times may increase the utilization of donor livers without significantly impairing graft outcome.

Surgical management, including the role of transplantation, for intrahepatic and peri-hilar cholangiocarcinoma.

Intrahepatic and peri-hilar cholangiocarcinoma are life threatening disease with poor outcomes despite optimal treatment currently available (5-year overall survival following resection 20-35%, and <10% cured at 10-years post resection). The insidious onset makes diagnosis difficult, the majority do not have a resection option and the high recurrence rate post-resection suggests that occult metastatic disease is frequently present. Advances in perioperative management, such as ipsilateral portal vein (and hepatic vein) embolisation methods to increase the future liver remnant volume, genomic profiling, and (neo)adjuvant therapies demonstrate great potential in improving outcomes. However multiple areas of controversy exist. Surgical resection rate and outcomes vary between centres with no global consensus on how 'resectable' disease is defined - molecular profiling and genomic analysis could potentially identify patients unlikely to benefit from resection or likely to benefit from targeted therapies. FDG-PET scanning has also improved the ability to detect metastatic disease preoperatively and avoid futile resection. However tumours frequently invade major vasculo-biliary structures, with resection and reconstruction associated with significant morbidity and mortality even in specialist centres. Liver transplantation has been investigated for very selected patients for the last decade and yet the selection algorithm, surgical approach and both value of both neoadjuvant and adjuvant therapies remain to be clarified. In this review, we discuss the contemporary management of intrahepatic and peri-hilar cholangiocarcinoma.

The impact of time to death in donors after circulatory death on recipient outcome in simultaneous pancreas-kidney transplantation.

The time to arrest donors after circulatory death is unpredictable and can vary. This leads to variable periods of warm ischemic damage prior to pancreas transplantation. There is little evidence supporting procurement team stand-down times based on donor time to death (TTD). We examined what impact TTD had on pancreas graft outcomes following donors after circulatory death (DCD) simultaneous pancreas-kidney transplantation. Data were extracted from the UK transplant registry from 2014 to 2022. Predictors of graft loss were evaluated using a Cox proportional hazards model. Adjusted restricted cubic spline models were generated to further delineate the relationship between TTD and outcome. Three-hundred-and-seventy-five DCD simultaneous kidney-pancreas transplant recipients were included. Increasing TTD was not associated with graft survival (adjusted hazard ratio HR 0.98, 95% confidence interval 0.68-1.41, P = .901). Increasing asystolic time worsened graft survival (adjusted hazard ratio 2.51, 95% confidence interval 1.16-5.43, P = .020). Restricted cubic spline modeling revealed a nonlinear relationship between asystolic time and graft survival and no relationship between TTD and graft survival. We found no evidence that TTD impacts pancreas graft survival after DCD simultaneous pancreas-kidney transplantation; however, increasing asystolic time was a significant predictor of graft loss. Procurement teams should attempt to minimize asystolic time to optimize pancreas graft survival rather than focus on the duration of TTD.

Fibrin-based haemostatic agents for reducing blood loss in adult liver resection.

BACKGROUND: Liver resection is the optimal treatment for selected benign and malignant liver tumours, but it can be associated with significant blood loss. Numerous anaesthetic and surgical techniques have been developed to reduce blood loss and improve perioperative outcomes. One such technique is the application of topical fibrin-based haemostatic agents (FBHAs) to the resection surface. There is no standard practice for FBHA use, and a variety of commercial agents and devices are available, as well as non-FBHAs (e.g. collagen-based agents). The literature is inconclusive on the effectiveness of these methods and on the clinical benefits of their routine use. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the benefits and harms of fibrin-based haemostatic agents in reducing intraoperative blood loss in adults undergoing liver resection. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Hepato-Biliary Group (CHBG) Controlled Trials Register, CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, LILACS, Science Citation Index Expanded, and Conference Proceedings Citation Index-Science up to 20 January 2023. We also searched online trial registries, checked the reference lists of all primary studies, and contacted the authors of included trials for additional published or unpublished trials. SELECTION CRITERIA: We considered for inclusion all randomised clinical trials evaluating FBHAs versus no topical intervention or non-FBHAs, irrespective of publication type, publication status, language of publication, and outcomes reported. Eligible participants could have any liver pathology and be undergoing major or minor liver resections through open or laparoscopic surgery. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently screened the results of the literature search and used data extraction forms to collate the results. We expressed dichotomous outcome results as risk ratios (RRs) and continuous outcome results as mean differences (MDs), each with their corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI). We used a random-effects model for the main analyses. Our primary outcomes were perioperative mortality, serious adverse events, haemostatic efficacy, and health-related quality of life. Our secondary outcomes were efficacy as sealant, adverse events considered non-serious, operating time, and length of hospital stay. We assessed the certainty of the evidence with GRADE and presented results in two summary of findings tables. MAIN RESULTS: We included 22 trials (2945 participants) evaluating FBHAs versus no intervention or non-FBHAs; 19 trials with 2642 participants provided data for the meta-analyses. Twelve trials reported commercial funding, one trial reported no financial support, and nine trials provided no information on funding. Below we present the most clinically relevant outcome results, also displayed in our summary of findings table. Fibrin-based haemostatic agents versus no intervention Six trials (1001 participants) compared FBHAs with no intervention. One trial was at low risk of bias in all five domains, and all other trials were at high or unclear risk of bias in at least one domain. Two trials were at high risk of bias related to blinding. It is unclear if FBHAs compared with no intervention have an effect on perioperative mortality (RR 2.58, 95% CI 0.89 to 7.44; 4 trials, 782 participants), serious adverse events (RR 0.96, 95% CI 0.88 to 1.05; 4 trials, 782 participants), postoperative transfusion (RR 1.04, 95% CI 0.77 to 1.40; 5 trials, 864 participants), reoperation (RR 2.92, 95% CI 0.58 to 14.61; 2 trials, 612 participants), or postoperative bile leak (RR 1.00, 95% CI 0.67 to 1.48; 4 trials, 782 participants), as the certainty of evidence was very low for all these outcomes. Fibrin-based haemostatic agents versus non-fibrin-based haemostatic agents Sixteen trials (1944 participants) compared FBHAs with non-FBHAs. All trials had at least one domain at high or unclear risk of bias. Twelve trials were at high risk of bias related to blinding. It is unclear if FBHAs compared with non-FBHAs have an effect on perioperative mortality (RR 1.03, 95% CI 0.62 to 1.72; 11 trials, 1436 participants), postoperative transfusion (RR 0.92, 95% CI 0.68 to 1.25; 7 trials, 599 participants), reoperation (RR 0.48, 95% CI 0.25 to 0.90; 3 trials, 358 participants), or postoperative bile leak (RR 1.15, 95% CI 0.60 to 2.21; 9 trials, 1115 participants), as the certainty of evidence was very low for all these outcomes. FBHAs compared with non-FBHAs may have little or no effect on the risk of serious adverse events (RR 0.99, 95% CI 0.95 to 1.03; 9 trials, 1176 participants; low-certainty evidence). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: The evidence for the outcomes in both comparisons (FBHAs versus no intervention and FBHAs versus non-FBHAs) was of very low certainty (or low certainty in one instance) and cannot justify the routine use of FBHAs to reduce blood loss in adult liver resection. While the meta-analysis showed a reduced risk of reoperation with FBHAs compared with non-FBHAs, the analysis was confounded by the small number of trials reporting the event and the risk of bias in all these trials. Future trials should focus on the use of FBHAs in people undergoing liver resection who are at particularly high risk of bleeding. Investigators should evaluate clinically meaningful and patient-important outcomes and follow the SPIRIT and CONSORT statements.

Global Comparison of Readmission Rates for Patients With Heart Failure.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure (HF) readmission rates are low in some jurisdictions. However, international comparisons are lacking and could serve as a foundation for identifying regional patient management strategies that could be shared to improve outcomes. OBJECTIVES: This study sought to summarize 30-day and 1-year all-cause readmission and mortality rates of hospitalized HF patients across countries and to explore potential differences in rates globally. METHODS: We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis using MEDLINE, Embase, and CENTRAL for observational reports on hospitalized adult HF patients at risk for readmission or mortality published between January 2010 and March 2021. We conducted a meta-analysis of proportions using a random-effects model, and sources of heterogeneity were evaluated with meta-regression. RESULTS: In total, 24 papers reporting on 30-day and 23 papers on 1-year readmission were included. Of the 1.5 million individuals at risk, 13.2% (95% CI: 10.5%-16.1%) were readmitted within 30 days and 35.7% (95% CI: 27.1%-44.9%) within 1 year. A total of 33 papers reported on 30-day and 45 papers on 1-year mortality. Of the 1.5 million individuals hospitalized for HF, 7.6% (95% CI: 6.1%-9.3%) died within 30 days and 23.3% (95% CI: 20.8%-25.9%) died within 1 year. Substantial variation in risk across countries was unexplained by countries' gross domestic product, proportion of gross domestic product spent on health care, and Gini coefficient. CONCLUSIONS: Globally, hospitalized HF patients exhibit high rates of readmission and mortality, and the variability in readmission rates was not explained by health care expenditure, risk of mortality, or comorbidities.

Diagnostic test accuracy for cessation of circulation during death determination: a systematic review.

PURPOSE: To synthesize the available evidence comparing noninvasive methods of measuring the cessation of circulation in patients who are potential organ donors undergoing death determination by circulatory criteria (DCC) with the current accepted standard of invasive arterial blood pressure (IAP) monitoring. SOURCE: We searched (from inception until 27 April 2021) MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. We screened citations and manuscripts independently and in duplicate for eligible studies that compared noninvasive methodologies assessing circulation in patients who were monitored around a period of cessation of circulation. We performed risk of bias assessment, data abstraction, and quality assessment using Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation in duplicate and independently. We presented findings narratively. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We included 21 eligible studies (N = 1,177 patients). Meta-analysis was not possible because of study heterogeneity. We identified low quality evidence from four indirect studies (n = 89) showing pulse palpation is less sensitive and specific than IAP (reported sensitivity range, 0.76-0.90; specificity, 0.41-0.79). Isoelectric electrocardiogram (ECG) had excellent specificity for death (two studies; 0% [0/510]), but likely increases the average time to death determination (moderate quality evidence). We are uncertain whether point-of-care ultrasound (POCUS) pulse check, cerebral near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS), or POCUS cardiac motion assessment are accurate tests for the determination of circulatory cessation (very low-quality evidence). CONCLUSION: There is insufficient evidence that ECG, POCUS pulse check, cerebral NIRS, or POCUS cardiac motion assessment are superior or equivalent to IAP for DCC in the setting of organ donation. Isoelectric ECG is specific but can increase the time needed to determine death. Point-of-care ultrasound techniques are emerging therapies with promising initial data but are limited by indirectness and imprecision. STUDY REGISTRATION: PROSPERO (CRD42021258936); first submitted 16 June 2021.

RéSUMé: OBJECTIF: Synthétiser les données probantes disponibles comparant les méthodes non invasives de mesure de l'arrêt de la circulation chez les patients qui sont des donneurs d'organes potentiels soumis à une détermination du décès selon des critères circulatoires (DCC) avec la norme actuellement acceptée de surveillance invasive de la tension artérielle (TA). SOURCES: Nous avons mené des recherches dans les bases de données MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science et le registre Cochrane des essais contrôlés de leur création jusqu'au 27 avril 2021. Nous avons examiné les citations et les manuscrits de manière indépendante et en double pour en tirer les études éligibles qui comparaient des méthodologies non invasives d'évaluation de la circulation chez les patients qui étaient sous surveillance avant, pendant et après une période d'arrêt de la circulation. Nous avons réalisé l'évaluation du risque de biais, l'extraction des données et l'évaluation de la qualité en nous fondant sur la méthodologie GRADE (Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation) en double et de manière indépendante. Nous présentons les résultats de façon narrative. CONSTATATIONS PRINCIPALES: Nous avons inclus 21 études éligibles (N = 1177 patients). Une méta-analyse n'a pas été possible en raison de l'hétérogénéité des études. Nous avons identifié des données de faible qualité issues de quatre études indirectes (n = 89) montrant que la palpation du pouls est moins sensible et spécifique que la mesure invasive de la TA (plage de sensibilité rapportée, 0,76-0,90; spécificité, 0,41-0,79). L'électrocardiogramme (ECG) isoélectrique avait une excellente spécificité pour le décès (deux études; 0 % [0/510]), mais augmente probablement le délai moyen avant la détermination du décès (données probantes de qualité modérée). Nous ne savons pas si la vérification du pouls par échographie ciblée (POCUS), la spectroscopie proche infrarouge (SPIR) cérébrale ou l'évaluation ciblée (POCUS) des mouvements cardiaques sont des examens précis pour la détermination de l'arrêt circulatoire (données probantes de très faible qualité). CONCLUSION: Il n'y a pas suffisamment de données probantes pour affirmer que l'ECG, la vérification ciblée du pouls, la SPIR cérébrale ou l'évaluation ciblée des mouvements cardiaques sont supérieurs ou équivalents à la mesure invasive de la TA pour un DCC dans le cadre du don d'organes. L'ECG isoélectrique est spécifique, mais peut augmenter le délai nécessaire avant de déterminer le décès. Les techniques d'échographie ciblée sont des thérapies émergentes avec des données initiales prometteuses, mais elles sont limitées par leur caractère indirect et l'imprécision de l'examen. ENREGISTREMENT DE L'éTUDE: PROSPERO (CRD42021258936); soumis pour la première fois le 16 juin 2021.

Obesity as an independent risk factor for COVID-19 severity and mortality.

BACKGROUND: Since December 2019, the world has struggled with the COVID-19 pandemic. Even after the introduction of various vaccines, this disease still takes a considerable toll. In order to improve the optimal allocation of resources and communication of prognosis, healthcare providers and patients need an accurate understanding of factors (such as obesity) that are associated with a higher risk of adverse outcomes from the COVID-19 infection. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate obesity as an independent prognostic factor for COVID-19 severity and mortality among adult patients in whom infection with the COVID-19 virus is confirmed. SEARCH METHODS: MEDLINE, Embase, two COVID-19 reference collections, and four Chinese biomedical databases were searched up to April 2021. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included case-control, case-series, prospective and retrospective cohort studies, and secondary analyses of randomised controlled trials if they evaluated associations between obesity and COVID-19 adverse outcomes including mortality, mechanical ventilation, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, hospitalisation, severe COVID, and COVID pneumonia. Given our interest in ascertaining the independent association between obesity and these outcomes, we selected studies that adjusted for at least one factor other than obesity. Studies were evaluated for inclusion by two independent reviewers working in duplicate.  DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Using standardised data extraction forms, we extracted relevant information from the included studies. When appropriate, we pooled the estimates of association across studies with the use of random-effects meta-analyses. The Quality in Prognostic Studies (QUIPS) tool provided the platform for assessing the risk of bias across each included study. In our main comparison, we conducted meta-analyses for each obesity class separately. We also meta-analysed unclassified obesity and obesity as a continuous variable (5 kg/m2 increase in BMI (body mass index)). We used the GRADE framework to rate our certainty in the importance of the association observed between obesity and each outcome. As obesity is closely associated with other comorbidities, we decided to prespecify the minimum adjustment set of variables including age, sex, diabetes, hypertension, and cardiovascular disease for subgroup analysis.  MAIN RESULTS: We identified 171 studies, 149 of which were included in meta-analyses.  As compared to 'normal' BMI (18.5 to 24.9 kg/m2) or patients without obesity, those with obesity classes I (BMI 30 to 35 kg/m2), and II (BMI 35 to 40 kg/m2) were not at increased odds for mortality (Class I: odds ratio [OR] 1.04, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.94 to 1.16, high certainty (15 studies, 335,209 participants); Class II: OR 1.16, 95% CI 0.99 to 1.36, high certainty (11 studies, 317,925 participants)). However, those with class III obesity (BMI 40 kg/m2 and above) may be at increased odds for mortality (Class III: OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.39 to 2.00, low certainty, (19 studies, 354,967 participants)) compared to normal BMI or patients without obesity. For mechanical ventilation, we observed increasing odds with higher classes of obesity in comparison to normal BMI or patients without obesity (class I: OR 1.38, 95% CI 1.20 to 1.59, 10 studies, 187,895 participants, moderate certainty; class II: OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.42 to 1.96, 6 studies, 171,149 participants, high certainty; class III: OR 2.17, 95% CI 1.59 to 2.97, 12 studies, 174,520 participants, high certainty). However, we did not observe a dose-response relationship across increasing obesity classifications for ICU admission and hospitalisation. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that obesity is an important independent prognostic factor in the setting of COVID-19. Consideration of obesity may inform the optimal management and allocation of limited resources in the care of COVID-19 patients.

Risk factors for decompensation and death following umbilical hernia repair in patients with end-stage liver disease.

INTRODUCTION: Symptomatic umbilical hernias are a common cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with cirrhosis and end-stage liver disease (ESLD). This study set out to characterise the factors predicting outcome following repair of symptomatic umbilical hernias in ESLD at a single institution. METHODS: A retrospective review was performed of all patients with ESLD who underwent repair of a symptomatic umbilical hernia between 1998 and 2020. Overall survival was predicted using the Kaplan-Meier method. Logistic regression was used to determine predictors of decompensation and 30-day, 90-day and 1-year mortality. RESULTS: One-hundred-and-eight patients with ESLD underwent umbilical hernia repair (emergency n = 78, 72.2%). Transjugular shunting was performed in 29 patients (26.9%). Decompensation occurred in 44 patients (40.7%) and was predicted by emergency surgery (OR, 13.29; P = 0.001). Length of stay was shorter in elective patients compared to emergency patients (3-days vs. 7-days; P = 0.003). Thirty-day, 90-day and 1-year survival was 95.2, 93.2 and 85.4%, respectively. Model for ESLD score >15 predicted 90-day mortality (OR, 18.48; P = 0.030) and hyponatraemia predicted 1-year mortality (OR, 5.31; P = 0.047). Transjugular shunting predicted survival at 1 year (OR, 0.15; P = 0.038). CONCLUSIONS: Repair of symptomatic umbilical hernias in patients with ESLD can be undertaken with acceptable outcomes in a specialist centre, however, this remains a high-risk intervention. Patients undergoing emergency repair are more likely to decompensate postoperatively, develop wound-related problems and have a longer length of stay. Transjugular shunting may confer a benefit to survival, but further prospective trials are warranted.

Association between sex and survival after non-traumatic out of hospital cardiac arrest: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Existing studies have shown conflicting results regarding the relationship of sex with survival after out of hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA). This systematic review evaluates the association of female sex with survival to discharge and survival to 30 days after non-traumatic OHCA. METHODS: We searched Medline, Embase, CINAHL, Web of Science, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews from inception through June 2021 for studies evaluating female sex as a predictor of survival in adult patients with non-traumatic cardiac arrest. Random-effects inverse variance meta-analyses were performed to calculate pooled odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). The GRADE approach was used to assess evidence quality. RESULTS: Thirty studies including 1,068,788 patients had female proportion of 41%. There was no association for female sex with survival to discharge (OR 1.03, 95% CI 0.95-1.12; I2 = 89%). Subgroup analysis of low risk of bias studies demonstrated increased survival to discharge for female sex (OR 1.20, 95% CI 1.18-1.23; I2 = 0%) and with high certainty, the absolute increase in survival was 2.2% (95% CI 0.1-3.6%). Female sex was not associated with survival to 30 days post-OHCA (OR 1.02, 95% CI 0.92-1.14; I2 = 79%). CONCLUSIONS: In adult patients experiencing OHCA, with high certainty in the evidence from studies with low risk of bias, female sex had a small absolute difference for the outcome survival to discharge and no difference in survival at 30 days. Future models that aim to stratify risk of survival post-OHCA should focus on sex-specific factors as opposed to sex as an isolated prognostic factor.

Predictors of 1-year mortality after adult lung transplantation: Systematic review and meta-analyses.

BACKGROUND: Prognostic factors in lung transplantation are those variables that are associated with transplant outcomes. Knowledge of donor and recipient prognostic variables can aid in the optimal allocation of donor lungs to transplant recipients and can also inform post-operative discussions with patients about prognosis. Current research findings related to prognostic factors in lung transplantation are inconsistent and the relative importance of various factors is unclear. This review aims to provide the best possible estimates of the association between putative prognostic variables and 1-year all-cause mortality in adult lung transplant recipients. METHODS: We searched 5 bibliographic databases for studies assessing the associations between putative predictors (related to lung donors, recipients, or the transplant procedure) and 1-year recipient mortality. We pooled data across studies when justified and utilized GRADE methodology to assess the certainty in the evidence. RESULTS: From 72 eligible studies (2002-2020), there were 34 recipient variables, 4 donor variables, 10 procedural variables, and 7 post-transplant complication variables that were amenable to a meta-analysis. With a high degree of certainty in the evidence only post-transplant need for extra-corporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) (HR 1.91, 95% CI 1.79-2.04) predicted 1-year mortality. No donor variables appeared to predict transplant outcome with high or even moderate certainty. CONCLUSION: Across the range of contemporary donors and recipients that clinicians accept for lung transplantation, this review, with high certainty, found 1 prognostic factor that predicted 1-year mortality, and 37 additional factors with a moderate degree of certainty. The lack of prognostic significance for some widely accepted factors (e.g., donor smoking, age) likely relates to existing limits in the range of these variables at the time of donor and recipient selection.

Prognostic value of natriuretic peptides in heart failure: systematic review and meta-analysis.

Risk models, informing optimal long-term medical management, seldom use natriuretic peptides (NP) in ascertaining the absolute risk of outcomes for HF patients. Individual studies evaluating the prognostic value of NPs in HF patients have reported varying effects, arriving at best estimates requires a systematic review. We systematically summarized the best evidence regarding the prognostic value of brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) and NT-proBNP in predicting mortality and hospitalizations in ambulatory heart failure (HF) patients. We searched bibliographic databases from 2005 to 2018 and included studies evaluating the association of BNP or NT-proBNP with mortality or hospitalization using multivariable Cox proportional hazard models. We pooled hazard ratios using random-effect models, explored heterogeneity using pre-specified subgroup analyses, and evaluated the certainty of evidence using the Grading of Recommendations and Development Evaluation framework. We identified 67 eligible studies reporting on 76,178 ambulatory HF patients with a median BNP of 407 pg/mL (261-574 pg/mL). Moderate to high-quality evidence showed that a 100-pg/mL increase in BNP was associated with a 14% increased hazard of mortality (HR 1.14, 95% CI 1.06-1.22); a 1-log-unit increase was associated with a 51% increased hazard of mortality (HR 1.51, 95% CI 1.41-1.61) and 48% increased hazard of mortality or hospitalization (HR 1.48, 95% CI 1.29-1.69). With moderate to high certainty, we observed a 14% independent relative increase in mortality, translating to a clinically meaningful increase in absolute risk even for low-risk patients. The observed associations may help in developing more accurate risk models that incorporate NPs and accurately prognosticate HF patients.

Association between routine measures of graft function and mortality in heart transplant recipients.

OBJECTIVE: To date, long-term graft dysfunction, an important cause of death after heart transplantation, has been defined as a left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) of ≤40% or right atrial pressure (RAP) of ≥15 mm Hg. Empirical associations between measures of cardiac function and mortality post-transplant remain, however, unestablished. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective two-centre cohort study of consecutive adults who underwent heart transplant between 2002 and 2017. We evaluated the association between LVEF and RAP and mortality, including rejection and cardiac allograft vasculopathy as additional time-dependent covariates using Cox proportional hazard models. We applied restricted cubic splines to both LVEF and RAP. RESULTS: Of 590 eligible heart transplant recipients, of whom 72% were male with a mean age of 49 years, 410 received their transplant at Toronto General Hospital and 180 at Rigshospitalet. We observed a 5% absolute risk increase for 1-year mortality, from 11% to 16%, when the LVEF dropped to 53% (HR 1.71 for LVEF of 53% compared with 60%, 95% CI 1.36 to 2.14) or when the RAP increased to 12 mm Hg (HR 1.49 for RAP of 12 mm Hg compared with 5 mm Hg, 95% CI 1.04 to 2.13). CONCLUSION: In this study, we observed that small changes in graft function at any time post-transplant are associated with an increased mortality. Our results suggest that the current definition of graft dysfunction may underestimate patient risk of adverse outcomes.

Prognostic value of blood pressure in ambulatory heart failure: a meta-analysis and systematic review. Ambulatory blood pressure predicts heart failure prognosis.

Previous primary studies have explored the association between blood pressure (BP) and mortality in ambulatory heart failure (HF) patients reporting varying and contrasting associations. The aim is to determine the pooled BP prognostic value and explore potential reasons for between-study inconsistency. We searched Medline, Cochrane, EMBASE and CINAHL from January 2005 to October 2018 for studies with ≥ 50 events (mortality and/or hospitalization) and included BP in a multivariable model in ambulatory HF patients. We pooled hazard ratios (random effects model) for systolic BP (SBP) or diastolic BP (DBP) effect on mortality and/or hospitalization risk. We used a priori defined sub-group analyses to explore heterogeneity and GRADE approach to assess the certainty of the evidence. Seventy-one eligible articles (239,467 screened) at low to moderate risk of bias included 235,752 participants. Higher SBP was associated with reduced all-cause mortality (HR 0.93, 95%CI 0.91-0.95, I2 = 87.13%, moderate certainty), all-cause hospitalization events (HR 0.91, 95%CI 0.88-0.93, I2 = 44.4%, high certainty) and their composite endpoint (HR 0.93 per 10 mmHg, 95%CI 0.91-0.94, I2 = 86.3%, high certainty). DBP did not demonstrate a statistically significant effect for all outcomes. The association strength was significantly weaker in studies following patients with either LVEF > 40%, higher average SBP (> 130 mmHg), increasing age and diabetes. All other a priori subgroup hypotheses did not explain between study differences. Higher ambulatory SBP is associated with reduced risk of all-cause mortality and hospitalization. Patients with lower BP and reduced LVEF are in a high-risk group of developing adverse events with moderate certainty of evidence.

Predictive models for cardiovascular and kidney outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes: systematic review and meta-analyses.

OBJECTIVE: To inform a clinical practice guideline (BMJ Rapid Recommendations) considering sodium glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists for treatment of adults with type 2 diabetes, we summarised the available evidence regarding the performance of validated risk models on cardiovascular and kidney outcomes in these patients. METHODS: We systematically searched bibliographic databases in January 2020 to identify observational studies evaluating risk models for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, heart failure (HF) hospitalisations, end-stage kidney disease (ESKD), myocardial infarction (MI) and ischaemic stroke in ambulatory adults with type 2 diabetes. Using a random effects model, we pooled discrimination measures for each model and outcome, separately, and descriptively summarised calibration plots, when available. We used the Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool to assess risk of bias of each included study and the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation approach to evaluate our certainty in the evidence. RESULTS: Of 22 589 publications identified, 15 observational studies reporting on seven risk models proved eligible. Among the seven models with >1 validation cohort, the Risk Equations for Complications of Type 2 Diabetes (RECODe) had the best calibration in primary studies and the highest pooled discrimination measures for the following outcomes: all-cause mortality (C-statistics 0.75, 95% CI 0.70 to 0.80; high certainty), cardiovascular mortality (0.79, 95% CI 0.75 to 0.84; low certainty), ESKD (0.73, 95% CI 0.52 to 0.94; low certainty), MI (0.72, 95% CI 0.69 to 0.74; moderate certainty) and stroke (0.71, 95% CI 0.68 to 0.74; moderate certainty). This model does not, however, predict risk of HF hospitalisations. CONCLUSION: Of available risk models, RECODe proved to have satisfactory calibration in primary validation studies and acceptable discrimination superior to other models, though with high risk of bias in most primary studies. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42020168351.

Mortality in patients with cardiogenic shock supported with VA ECMO: A systematic review and meta-analysis evaluating the impact of etiology on 29,289 patients.

BACKGROUND: Venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA ECMO) is associated with variable outcomes. In this meta-analysis, we evaluated the mortality after VA ECMO across multiple etiologies of cardiogenic shock (CS). METHODS: In June 2019, we performed a systematic search selecting observational studies with ≥10 adult patients reporting on short-term mortality (30-day or mortality at discharge) after initiation of VA ECMO by CS etiology published after 2009. We performed meta-analyses using random effect models and used metaregression to evaluate mortality across CS etiology. RESULTS: We included 306 studies (29,289 patients): 25 studies on after heart transplantation (HTx) (771 patients), 13 on myocarditis (906 patients), 33 on decompensated heart failure (HF) (3,567 patients), 64 on after cardiotomy shock (8,231 patients), 10 on pulmonary embolism (PE) (221 patients), 80 on acute myocardial infarction (AMI) (7,774 patients), and 113 on after cardiac arrest [CA] (7,814 patients). With moderate certainty on effect estimates, we observed significantly different mortality estimates for various etiologies (p < 0.001), which is not explained by differences in age and sex across studies: 35% (95% CI: 29-42) for after HTx, 40% (95% CI: 33-46) for myocarditis, 53% (95% CI: 46-59) for HF, 52% (95% CI: 38-66) for PE, 59% (95% CI: 56-63) for cardiotomy, 60% (95% CI: 57-64) for AMI, 64% (95% CI: 59-69) for post‒in-hospital CA, and 76% (95% CI: 69-82) for post-out‒of-hospital CA. Univariable metaregression showed that variation in mortality estimates within etiology group was partially explained by population age, proportion of females, left ventricle venting, and CA. CONCLUSIONS: Using an overall estimate of mortality for patients with CS requiring VA ECMO is inadequate given the differential outcomes by etiology. To further refine patient selection and management to improve outcomes, additional studies evaluating patient characteristics impacting outcomes by specific CS etiology are needed.