Development and internal validation of clinical prediction models for outcomes of complicated intra-abdominal infection.

BACKGROUND: Complicated intra-abdominal infections (cIAIs) are associated with significant morbidity and mortality. The aim of this study was to describe the clinical characteristics of patients with cIAI in a multicentre study and to develop clinical prediction models (CPMs) to help identify patients at risk of mortality or relapse. METHODS: A multicentre observational study was conducted from August 2016 to February 2017 in the UK. Adult patients diagnosed with cIAI were included. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to develop CPMs for mortality and cIAI relapse. The c-statistic was used to test model discrimination. Model calibration was tested using calibration slopes and calibration in the large (CITL). The CPMs were then presented as point scoring systems and validated further. RESULTS: Overall, 417 patients from 31 surgical centres were included in the analysis. At 90 days after diagnosis, 17.3 per cent had a cIAI relapse and the mortality rate was 11.3 per cent. Predictors in the mortality model were age, cIAI aetiology, presence of a perforated viscus and source control procedure. Predictors of cIAI relapse included the presence of collections, outcome of initial management, and duration of antibiotic treatment. The c-statistic adjusted for model optimism was 0.79 (95 per cent c.i. 0.75 to 0.87) and 0.74 (0.73 to 0.85) for mortality and cIAI relapse CPMs. Adjusted calibration slopes were 0.88 (95 per cent c.i. 0.76 to 0.90) for the mortality model and 0.91 (0.88 to 0.94) for the relapse model; CITL was -0.19 (95 per cent c.i. -0.39 to -0.12) and - 0.01 (- 0.17 to -0.03) respectively. CONCLUSION: Relapse of infection and death after complicated intra-abdominal infections are common. Clinical prediction models were developed to identify patients at increased risk of relapse or death after treatment, these now require external validation.

Outcomes of definitive radiotherapy for early laryngeal cancer in terms of survival and patterns of failure.

BACKGROUND: Early laryngeal cancer treated with definitive radiotherapy or surgery has a high cure rate. This study evaluated the patterns of treatment failure and long-term results of early laryngeal cancers treated with definitive radiotherapy. METHOD: From January 2002 to December 2014, a total of 242 patients with early-stage laryngeal cancers were treated with radical radiotherapy. RESULTS: All patients had squamous cell carcinoma of the larynx (92 per cent male and 8 per cent female). Median follow-up was 4.5 years. The majority of patients were smokers (57.4 per cent). Local failure was seen in 12.5 per cent of stage I patients and 22.8 per cent of stage II patients. The 5-year overall survival and disease specific survival were 84 per cent and 91 per cent, respectively. CONCLUSION: In summary, radiotherapy is a suitable treatment modality for patients with early-stage laryngeal cancer, with an overall locoregional control rate of 84 per cent. Patients who fail radiotherapy may still undergo salvage laryngectomy.

Colorectal trainees in the UK struggle to meet JAG certification standards in colonoscopy by the end of their training.

AIM: Colonoscopy certification in the UK is taken in two parts - provisional and full - mandating lifetime procedure counts of 200 or 300, respectively. The aim of this study was to determine the number of procedures performed by colorectal trainees by the end of training compared with their gastroenterology peers and to determine the factors associated with achieving the 300-procedure target for full certification. METHOD: Dates of entry onto the specialist register were obtained from the General Medical Council. This list was cross-referenced with procedure counts from the Joint Advisory Group on Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (JAG) Endoscopy Training System database to determine the number of colonoscopies and polypectomies performed during training. Factors associated with achieving 300 procedures were analysed by logistic regression. RESULTS: Procedures numbers were obtained for 234 gastroenterology and 148 colorectal surgery trainees. Over the last 5 years, the number of colonoscopies performed during training has declined for colorectal surgery trainees but increased for gastroenterology trainees. Gastroenterology trainees are more likely to achieve provisional and full certification. For trainees completing training in 2017, 19% of colorectal surgery trainees compared with 88% of gastroenterology trainees were able to reach the threshold of 300 procedures for full certification. CONCLUSION: Colorectal surgery trainees lag behind their gastroenterology counterparts in accruing endoscopy experience. This affects the ability of colorectal surgery trainees to achieve certification prior to completion of training. An urgent debate is required to decide what endoscopy training is required of a colorectal surgeon and how a robust training system can be put in place to ensure this is achieved.