A decision support tool to inform local suicide prevention activity in Greater Western Sydney (Australia).

OBJECTIVES: This study describes the development of a decision support tool to identify the combination of suicide prevention activities and service priorities likely to deliver the greatest reductions in suicidal behaviour in Western Sydney (Australia) over the period 2018-2028. METHODS: A dynamic simulation model for the WentWest - Western Sydney Primary Health Network population-catchment was developed in partnership with primary health network stakeholders based on defined pathways to mental health care and suicidal behaviour, and which represented the current incidence of suicide and attempted suicide in Western Sydney. A series of scenarios relating to potential suicide prevention activities and service priorities identified by primary health network stakeholders were investigated to identify the combination of interventions associated with the largest reductions in the forecast number of attempted suicide and suicide cases for a 10-year follow-up period. RESULTS: The largest number of cases averted for both suicide and attempted suicide was associated with (1) post-suicide attempt assertive aftercare (6.1% for both attempted suicide and suicide), (2) improved community support and reductions in psychological distress in the community (5.1% for attempted suicide and 14.8% for suicide), and (3) reductions in the proportion of those lost to services following a mental health service contact (10.5% for both attempted suicide and suicide). In combination, these interventions were forecast to avert approximately 29.7% of attempted suicides and 37.1% of suicides in the primary health network catchment over the 10-year period. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates the utility of dynamic simulation models, co-designed with multi-disciplinary stakeholder groups, to capture and analyse complex mental health and suicide prevention regional planning problems. The model can be used by WentWest - Western Sydney Primary Health Network as a decision support tool to guide the commissioning of future service activity, and more efficiently frame the monitoring and evaluation of interventions as they are implemented in Western Sydney.

Implementation and effectiveness of 'care navigation', coordinated management for people with complex chronic illness: rationale and methods of a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Chronic illness is a significant driver of the global burden of disease and associated health care costs. People living with severe chronic illness are heavy users of acute hospital services; better coordination of their care could potentially improve health outcomes while reducing hospital use. The Care Navigation trial will evaluate an in-hospital coordinated care intervention on health service use and quality of life in chronically ill patients. METHODS/DESIGN: A randomised controlled trial in 500 chronically ill patients presenting to the emergency department of a hospital in Western Sydney, Australia. Participants have three or more hospital admissions within a previous 12 month period and either aged ≥70 years; or aged ≥45 years and of Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander descent; or aged ≥ 16 with a diagnosis of a respiratory or cardiology related illness. Patients are randomised to either the coordinated care program (Care Navigation), or to usual care. The Care Navigation program consists of dedicated nurses who conduct patient risk assessments, oversee patient nursing while in hospital, and guide development of a care plan for the management of chronic illness after being discharged from hospital. These nurses also book community appointments and liaise with general practitioners. The main outcome variables are the number of emergency department re-presentations and hospital readmissions, and quality of life during a 24 month follow-up. Secondary outcomes are length of hospital stay, mortality, time to first hospital re-admission, time to first emergency department re-presentation, patient satisfaction, adherence to prescribed medications, amount and type of in-hospital referrals made for consultations and diagnostic testing, and the number and type of community health referrals. A process evaluation and economic analysis will be conducted alongside the randomised trial. DISCUSSION: A trial of in-hospital care coordination may support recent evidence that engaging primary health services in care plans linked to multidisciplinary team support improves patient outcomes and reduces costs to the health system. This will inform local, national and international health policy. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australia New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12609000554268.