Impact evaluation of a youth led intervention to increase COVID-19 vaccine uptake in Kwazulu-Natal, South Africa.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 vaccination rates in South Africa remain low at 51% of the adult population being fully vaccinated, defined as having two shorts of the COVID-19 vaccine with or without a booster. To improve vaccine uptake, a community-based intervention was tested in a high vaccine hesitancy community in South Africa. Trained community youths used social media, face to face interactions, door to door and neighbourhood outreach activities to deliver the intervention. METHODS: To assess if the intervention had an impact, data was collected before the intervention and after the intervention in two districts, Wentworth an intervention site and Newlands East a control site. Both districts are in KwaZulu Natal Province, South Africa. The following outcomes, changes on perceptions and knowledge about COVID-19, intention to get vaccinated for those who were not fully vaccinated and vaccination uptake were assessed using difference-in-difference methods applied through Augmented Inverse-Probability Weighting and contrasts of Potential Outcome Means (POM). RESULTS: One thousand, one hundred and fifty (1 150) participants agreed to take part in the study at baseline, and 916 (80%) were followed up after the 9-week intervention period. Intention to get vaccinated for COVID-19 was higher (difference-in-difference, DID 20%, 95% CI 6% - 35% higher), more people were fully vaccinated (DID 10%, 95% CI 0% - 20%) or partially vaccinated (DID 16%, 95% CI 6% - 26%) in Wentworth the intervention site compared to Newlands East, the control site. There were noticeable increases on the percentage of study participants indicating trust on the Government's COVID 19 programme, from 24% at baseline to 48% after the intervention in the intervention group than in the control group, 26% baseline and 29% at follow-up. There was a 10% (absolute) increase on the percentage of participants' saying they believed health care workers provided reliable information, 58% at baseline and 68% at follow-up in the intervention group, but there was little change in the control group 56% and 57% for baseline and follow-up respectively. CONCLUSION: The youth-led intervention implemented in Wentworth, a community with a high rate of vaccine hesitancy, was effective in increasing vaccination uptake. Given the low COVID-19 vaccine coverage in South Africa and across the African region, as well as the new emerging variant of concern (XBB 1.5), there is an urgent need to scale up such intervention at the community level to address persistent misinformation and promote vaccine equality.

A nonlinear fractional epidemic model for the Marburg virus transmission with public health education.

In this study, a deterministic model for the dynamics of Marburg virus transmission that incorporates the impact of public health education is being formulated and analyzed. The Caputo fractional-order derivative is used to extend the traditional integer model to a fractional-based model. The model's positivity and boundedness are also under investigation. We obtain the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] and establish the conditions for the local and global asymptotic stability for the disease-free equilibrium of the model. Under the Caputo fractional-order derivative, we establish the existence-uniqueness theory using the Banach contraction mapping principle for the solution of the proposed model. We use functional techniques to demonstrate the proposed model's stability under the Ulam-Hyers condition. The numerical solutions are being determined through the Predictor-Corrector scheme. Awareness, as a form of education that lowers the risk of danger, is reducing susceptibility and the risk of infection. We employ numerical simulations to showcase the variety of realistic parameter values that support the argument that human awareness, as a form of education, considerably lowers susceptibility and the risk of infection.

Seroprevalence survey of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody and associated factors in South Africa: Findings of the 2020-2021 population-based household survey.

Population-based serological testing is important to understand the epidemiology and estimate the true cumulative incidence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) to inform public health interventions. This study reports findings of a national household population SARS-CoV-2 serosurvey in people 12 years and older in South Africa. This cross-sectional multi-stage random stratified cluster survey undertaken from November 2020 to June 2021 collected sociodemographic data, medical history, behavioural data, and blood samples from consenting participants. The samples were tested for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies using the Roche ElecsysAnti-SARS-CoV-2 chemiluminescence immunoassay (CLIA) Total Antibody Test. The survey data were weighted by age, race, sex, and province with final individual weights benchmarked against the 2020 mid-year population estimates and accounted for clustering. Descriptive statistics summarize the characteristics of participants and seroprevalence. Logistic regression analyses were used to identify factors associated with seropositivity. From 13290 survey participants (median age 33 years, interquartile range (IQR) 23-46 years), SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence was 37.8% [95% Confidence Interval (CI) 35.4-40.4] and varied substantially across the country's nine provinces, and by sex, age and locality type. In the final adjusted model, the odds of seropositivity were higher in women than in men [aOR = 1.3 (95% CI: 1.0-1.6), p = 0.027], and those living with HIV (self-report) [aOR = 1.6 (95% CI: 1.0-2.4), p = 0.031]. The odds were lower among those 50 years and older compared to adolescents 12-19 years old [aOR = 0.6 (95% CI: 0.5-0.8), p<0.001] and in those who did not attend events or gatherings [aOR = 0.7 (95% CI: 0.6-1.0), p = 0.020]. The findings help us understand the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 within different regions in a low-middle-income country. The survey highlights the higher risk of infection in women in South Africa likely driven by their home and workplace roles and also highlighted a need to actively target and include younger people in the COVID-19 response.

Modelling the impact of vaccination and environmental transmission on the dynamics of monkeypox virus under Caputo operator.

In this study, we examine the impact of vaccination and environmental transmission on the dynamics of the monkeypox. We formulate and analyze a mathematical model for the dynamics of monkeypox virus transmission under Caputo fractional order. We obtain the basic reproduction number, the conditions for the local and global asymptotic stability for the disease-free equilibrium of the model. Under the Caputo fractional order, existence and uniqueness solutions have been determined using fixed point theorem. Numerical trajectories are obtained. Furthermore, we explored some of the sensitive parameters impact. Based on the trajectories, we hypothesised that the memory index or fractional order could use to control the Monkeypox virus transmission dynamics. We observed that if the proper vaccination is administrated, public health education is given, and practice like personal hygiene and proper disinfection spray, the infected individuals decreases.

Assessing spatial patterns of HIV prevalence and interventions in semi-urban settings in South Africa. Implications for spatially targeted interventions.

Equitable allocation of resources targeting the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) at the local level requires focusing interventions in areas of the greatest need. Understanding the geographical variation in the HIV epidemic and uptake of selected HIV prevention and treatment programmes are necessary to identify such areas. Individual-level HIV data were obtained from a 2012 national HIV survey in South Africa. Spatial regression models on each outcome measure (HIV infection, sub-optimal condom use or non-anti-retroviral treatment (ART) adjusted for spatial random effects at the ward level were fitted using WINBUGS software. In addition, ward-level data was utilized to estimate condom use coverage and ART initiation rates which were obtained from routinely collected data in 2012. Ordinary Kriging was used to produce smoothed maps of HIV infection, condom use coverage and ART initiation rates. HIV infection was associated with individuals undertaking tertiary education [posterior odds ratio (POR): 19.53; 95% credible intervals (CrI): 3.22- 84.93]. Sub-optimal condom use increased with age (POR: 1.09; 95%CrI: 1.06-1.11) and was associated with being married (POR: 4.14; 95%CrI: 1.23-4.28). Non-ART use was associated with being married (POR: 6.79; 95%CrI: 1.43-22.43). There were clusters with high HIV infection, sub-optimal condom use, and non- ART use in Ekurhuleni, an urban and semi-urban district in Gauteng province, South Africa. Findings show the need for expanding condom programmes and/or strengthening other HIV prevention programmes such as pre-exposure prophylaxis and encouraging sustained engagement in HIV care and treatment in the identified areas with the greatest need in Ekurhuleni Metropolitan Municipality.

The HIV Epidemic in South Africa: Key Findings from 2017 National Population-Based Survey.

South Africa has the largest number of people living with HIV worldwide. South Africa has implemented five population-based HIV prevalence surveys since 2002 aimed at understanding the dynamics and the trends of the epidemic. This paper presents key findings from the fifth HIV prevalence, incidence, and behaviour survey conducted in 2017 following policy, programme, and epidemic change since the prior survey was conducted in 2012. A cross-sectional population-based household survey collected behavioural and biomedical data on all members of the eligible households. A total of 39,132 respondents from 11,776 households were eligible to participate, of whom 93.6% agreed to be interviewed, and 61.1% provided blood specimens. The provided blood specimens were used to determine HIV status, HIV incidence, viral load, exposure to antiretroviral treatment, and HIV drug resistance. Overall HIV incidence among persons aged 2 years and above was 0.48% which translates to an estimated 231,000 new infections in 2017. HIV prevalence was 14.0% translating to 7.9 million people living with HIV. Antiretroviral (ARV) exposure was 62.3%, with the lowest exposure among those aged 15 to 24 years (39.9%) with 10% lower ARV coverage among males compared to females. Viral suppression among those on treatment was high (87.3%), whilst HIV population viral load suppression was much lower (62.3%). In terms of risk behaviours, 13.6% of youth reported having had an early sexual debut (first sex before the age of 15 years), with more males reporting having done so (19.5%) than females (7.6%). Age-disparate relationships, defined as having a sexual partner 5+ years different from oneself,) among adolescents were more common among females (35.8%) than males (1.5%). Self-reported multiple sexual partnerships (MSPs), defined as having more than one sexual partner in the previous 12 months, were more commonly reported by males (25.5%) than females (9.0%). Condom use at last sexual encounter was highest among males than females. Three quarters (75.2%) of people reported they had ever been tested for HIV, with more females (79.3%) having had done so than males (70.9%). Two-thirds of respondents (66.8%) self-reported having tested for HIV in the past 12 months. Finally, 61.6% of males in the survey self-reported as having been circumcised, with circumcision being more common among youth aged 15-24 years (70.2%), Black Africans (68.9%), and those living in both rural informal (tribal) areas (65%) and urban areas (61.9%). Slightly more (51.2%) male circumcisions were reported to have occurred in a medical setting than in traditional settings (44.8%), with more young males aged 15-24 (62.6%) and men aged 25-49 (51.5%) reporting to have done so compared to most men aged 50 and older (57.1%) who reported that they had undergone circumcision in a traditional setting. The results of this survey show that strides have been made in controlling the HIV epidemic, especially in the reduction of HIV incidence, HIV testing, and treatment. Although condom use at last sex act remains unchanged, there continue to be some challenges with the lack of significant behaviour change as people, especially youth, continue to engage in risky behaviour and delay treatment initiation. Therefore, there is a need to develop or scale up targeted intervention programmes to increase HIV testing further and put more people living with HIV on treatment as well as prevent risky behaviours that put young people at risk of HIV infection.

Is There Risk Compensation among HIV Infected Youth and Adults 15 Years and Older on Antiretroviral Treatment in South Africa? Findings from the 2017 National HIV Prevalence, Incidence, Behaviour and Communication Survey.

In this paper, risk compensation among individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART), using the 2017 South African national survey on HIV, is explored. A multi-stage stratified cluster random sampling approach was used to realize 11,130 participants 15 years and older. Logistic regression analysis assessed the association between multiple sexual partners, condom use at last sexual encounter, consistency of condom usage and potential explanatory variables using HIV status and ART exposure as a mediator variable. HIV positive participants who were aware and on ART were less likely to have multiple sexual partners, and less likely not to use a condom at last sex compared to HIV positive participants who were aware but not on ART. The odds of reporting multiple sexual partners were significantly lower among older age groups, females, non-Black Africans, and rural settings, and higher among those with tertiary level education, and risky alcohol users. The odds of no condom use at last sexual encounter were more likely among older age groups, females, other race groups, and less likely among those with secondary level education. The odds of inconsistent condom use were more likely among older age groups, females, and other race groups, and less likely among those with tertiary level education, high risk and hazardous alcohol users. Risk compensation is not apparent among HIV infected adults who are on ART. Risk groups that should receive tailored interventions to reduced risky sexual behaviours were identified.

Association Between ART Adherence and Mental Health: Results from a National HIV Sero-Behavioural Survey in South Africa.

This paper assesses the levels of antiretroviral treatment (ART) adherence and mental health distress among study participants in a national behavioural HIV-sero prevalence study South Africa. The study was a cross-sectional population-based multi-stage stratified cluster random survey, (SABSSM V, 2017). Structured questionnaires were used to collect information on socio-demographics, HIV knowledge, perceptions, HIV testing and HIV treatment history. Study participants were tested for HIV infection, antiretroviral use, viral suppression, and ART drug resistance. A total of 2155 PLHIV aged 15 years or older who were on ART were included in the study. Incidence of either moderate or severe mental health distress was 19.7%. Self-reported ART adherence among study participants with no, mild, moderate, or severe mental distress was 82%, 83%, 86% and 78%, respectively. The adjusted odds ratio for ART non-adherence was 0.58 (95% CI 0.24; 1.40) for mild mental distress, 0.82 (95% CI 0.35; 1.91) for moderate mental distress and 2.19 (95% CI 1.14; 4.19) for severe mental distress groups compared to the no mental health distress group. The other factors that were associated with ART non-adherence in adjusted models included education level, alcohol use and province/region of residence. The study revealed that mental health remains a challenge to ART adherence in South Africa. To improve ART adherence, HIV continuum of care programs should include screening for mental health among people living with HIV.

HIV drug resistance profile in South Africa: Findings and implications from the 2017 national HIV household survey.

BACKGROUND: HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) testing was included in the 2017 South African national HIV household survey. We describe the prevalence of HIVDR by drug class, age, sex and antiretroviral drugs (ARV) status. METHODS: Dried blood were spots tested for HIV, with Viral load (VL), exposure to ARVs and HIVDR testing among those HIV positive. HIVDR testing was conducted on samples with VL ≥1000 copies/ml using Next Generation Sequencing. Weighted percentages of HIVDR are reported. RESULTS: 697/1,105 (63%) of HIV positive samples were sequenced. HIVDR was detected in samples from 200 respondents (27.4% (95% confidence interval (CI) 22.8-32.6)). Among these 130 (18.9% (95% CI 14.8-23.8)), had resistance to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs) only, 63 (7.8% (95% CI 5.6-10.9)) resistance to NNRTIs and nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors, and 3 (0.5% (95% CI 0.1-2.1)) resistance to protease inhibitors. Sixty-five (55.7% (95% CI 42.6-67.9) of ARV-positive samples had HIVDR compared to 112 (22.8% (95% CI 17.7-28.7)), in ARV-negative samples. HIVDR was found in 75.6% (95% CI 59.2-87.3), n = 27, samples from respondents who reported ARV use but tested ARV-negative, and in 15.3% (95% CI 6.3-32.8), n = 7, respondents who reported no ARV use and tested ARV-negative. There were no significant age and sex differences in HIVDR. CONCLUSION: 27% of virally unsuppressed respondents had HIVDR, increasing to 75% among those who had discontinued ARV. Our findings support strengthening first-line ARV regimens by including drugs with a higher resistance barrier and treatment adherence strategies, and close monitoring of HIVDR.

Towards achieving the 90-90-90 HIV targets: results from the south African 2017 national HIV survey.

BACKGROUND: Measuring progress towards the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) 90-90-90 treatment targets is key to assessing progress towards turning the HIV epidemic tide. In 2017, the UNAIDS model estimated that 75% of people living with HIV (PLHIV) globally knew their HIV positive status, 79% of those who knew their status were on antiretroviral therapy (ART), and 81% of those who knew their HIV status and were on ART had a suppressed viral load. The fifth South African national HIV sero-behavioural survey collected nationally representative data that enabled the empirical estimation of these 90-90-90 targets for the country stratified by a variety of key factors. METHODS: To evaluate progress towards achievement of the 90-90-90 targets for South Africa, data obtained from a national, representative, cross-sectional population-based multi-stage stratified cluster random survey conducted in 2017 were analysed. The Fifth South African National HIV Prevalence, Incidence, Behaviour and Communication Survey (SABSSM V), collected behavioural and biomarker data from individuals residing in households from 1000 randomly selected Small Area Layers (SALs), across all nine provinces of the country. Structured questionnaires were used to collect socio-demographic data, knowledge and perceptions about HIV, and related risk behaviours. Blood samples were collected to test for HIV infection, antiretroviral use, and viral suppression (defined as < 1000 copies/ml). Weighted proportions of study participants aged 15 years and older who tested HIV positive were computed for those who reported awareness of their status (1st 90), and among these, those who were currently on ART (2nd 90) and of these, those who were virally suppressed (3rd 90). RESULTS: Among persons 15 years and older who were HIV positive, 84.8% were aware of their HIV positive status, of whom 70.7% were currently on ART, with 87.4% of these estimated to have suppressed viral load at the time of the survey. These estimates varied by sex, age, and geo-location type. Relatively higher percentages across all three indicators for women compared to men were observed: 88.7% versus 78.2% for those aware of their status, 72.3% versus 67.7% for on ART, and 89.8% versus 82.3% for viral suppression. Knowing one's positive HIV status increased with age: 74.0, 85.8, and 88.1% for age groups 15-24 years old, 25-49 years old and 50-64 years old, although for those 65 years and older, 78.7% knew their HIV positive status. A similar pattern was observed for the 2nd 90, among those who knew their HIV positive status, 51.7% of 15 to 24 year olds, 70.5% of those aged 25-49 years old, 82.9% of those aged 50-64 years old and 82.4% of those aged 65 years or older were currently on ART. Viral suppression for the above mentioned aged groups, among those who were on ART was 85.2, 87.2, 89.5, and 84.6% respectively. The 90-90-90 indicators for urban areas were 87.7, 66.5, and 87.2%, for rural settings was 85.8, 79.8, and 88.4%, while in commercial farming communities it was 56.2, 67.6 and 81.4%. CONCLUSIONS: South Africa appears to be on track to achieve the first 90 indicator by 2020. However, it is behind on the second 90 indicator with ART coverage that was ~ 20-percentage points below the target among people who knew their HIV status, this indicates deficiencies around linkage to and retention on ART. Overall viral suppression among those on ART is approaching the target at 87.4%, but this must be interpreted in the context of low reported ART coverage as well as with variation by age and sex. Targeted diagnosis, awareness, and treatment programs for men, young people aged 15-24 years old, people who reside in farming communities, and in specific provinces are needed. More nuanced 90-90-90 estimates within provinces, specifically looking at more granular sub-national level (e.g. districts), are needed to identify gaps in specific regions and to inform provincial interventions.

High rates of homicide in a rural South African population (2000-2008): findings from a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: South Africa has continued to receive increasing attention due to unprecedented high levels of violence. Homicide-related violence accounts for a significant proportion of unnatural deaths and contributes significantly to loss of years of expected life. We investigated levels and factors associated with homicide-related deaths and identify communities with excessively high homicide risk in a typical rural South African population. METHOD: Data drawn from verbal autopsies conducted on all deaths recorded during annual demographic and health surveillance in KwaZulu Natal, South Africa were used to derive the cumulative probability of death from homicide over a nine-year period (2000-2008). Weibull regression methods were used to investigate factors associated with homicide deaths. A Kulldorff spatial scan statistic was used to identify spatial clusters of homicide-related deaths. RESULTS: With 536 homicide-related deaths, and a median seven years of follow-up, the study found an overall homicide incidence rate of 66 deaths per 100, 000 person-years of observation (PYOs) (95 % CI 60-72) for the period under study. Death related to the use of firearms was the leading reported method of homicide (65 %) and most deaths occurred over weekends (43 %). Homicides are the second-most common cause of death in men aged 25-34 after HIV-related deaths (including TB) in this community, at 210 deaths per 100,000 PYOs, and was highest among 55-64 year old women, at 78 deaths per 100,000 PYOs. Residency status, age, socioeconomic status, and highest education level attained independently predicted the risk of homicide death. The spatial distribution of homicide deaths was not homogenous and the study identified two clear geographical clusters with significantly elevated homicide risk. CONCLUSION: The high rates of homicide observed in this typical rural South African population - particularly among men - underscore the need for urgent interventions to reduce this tragic and theoretically preventable loss of life in this population and similar South African settings.

Randomized, Double-Blind, Crossover Trial of Amitriptyline for Analgesia in Painful HIV-Associated Sensory Neuropathy.

UNLABELLED: We conducted a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, crossover study at a single center in South Africa, to ascertain whether amitriptyline is an effective analgesic for painful HIV-associated sensory neuropathy of moderate to severe intensity in: i) antiretroviral drug naive individuals, and ii) antiretroviral drug users. 124 HIV-infected participants (antiretroviral drug naive = 62, antiretroviral drug users = 62) who met the study criteria for painful HIV-associated sensory neuropathy were randomized to once-daily oral amitriptyline (titrated to a median: interquartile range of 50: 25-50 mg) or placebo for six weeks, followed by a three-week washout period and subsequent treatment crossover. The primary outcome measure was change from baseline in worst pain intensity of the feet (measured by participant self-report using an 11-point numerical pain rating scale) after six weeks of treatment. 122 of 124 participants completed all study visits and were included in the analysis of the primary outcome. In the antiretroviral drug-naive group (n = 61) there was no significant difference in the mean change in pain score from baseline after six weeks of treatment with placebo or amitriptyline [amitriptyline: 2.8 (SD 3.3) vs. placebo: 2.8 (3.4)]. Similarly, there was no significant difference in the change in pain score after six weeks of treatment with placebo or amitriptyline in the antiretroviral drug-user group (n = 61) [amitriptyline: 2.7 (3.3) vs. placebo: 2.1 (2.8)]. Controlling for period effects and treatment order effects did not alter the outcome of the analyses. Nor did analyzing the intention-to-treat cohort (missing data interpolated using baseline observation carried forward) alter the outcome of the analyses. In summary, amitriptyline, at the doses used here, was no more effective than an inactive placebo at reducing pain intensity in individuals with painful HIV-associated sensory neuropathy of moderate to severe intensity, irrespective of whether they were on antiretroviral therapy or not. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN 54452526.

Cost analysis of routine immunisation in Zambia.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to inform planning and funding by providing updated, detailed information on total and unit costs of routine immunisation (RI) in Zambia, a GAVI-eligible lower middle-income country with a population of 13 million. METHODS: The exercise was part of a multi-country study on costs and financing of routine immunisation (EPIC) that utilized a common, ingredients-based approach to costing. Data on inputs, prices and outputs were collected in a stratified, random sample of 51 facilities in nine districts between December 2012 and March 2013 using a pre-tested questionnaire. Shared inputs were allocated to RI costs on the basis of tracing factors developed for the study. A comprehensive set of costs were analysed to obtain total and unit costs, at facility and above-facility levels. RESULTS: The total annual economic cost of RI was $38.16 million, equivalent to approximately 10% of government health spending. Government contributed 83% of finances. Labour accounted for the lion's share (49%) of total costs followed by vaccines (16%) and travel allowances (12%). Analysis of specific activity costs showed that outreach and facility-based services accounted for half of total economic costs. Costs for managing the program at district, provincial and national levels (above-facility costs) represented 24% of total costs. Average unit costs were $7.18 per dose, $59.32 per infant and $65.89 per DPT3 immunised child, with markedly higher unit costs in rural facilities. Analyses suggest that greater efficiency is associated with higher utilisation levels and urban facility type. CONCLUSIONS: Total and unit costs, and government's contribution, were considerably higher than previous Zambian estimates and international benchmarks. These findings have substantial implications for planners, efficiency improvement and sustainable financing, particularly as new vaccines are introduced. Variations in immunisation costs at facility level warrant further statistical analyses.

Mapping financial flows for immunisation in Uganda 2009/10 and 2010/11: New insights for methodologies and policy.

BACKGROUND: The Global Vaccine Action Plan highlights the need for immunisation programmes to have sustainable access to predictable funding. A good understanding of current and future funding needs, commitments, and gaps is required to enhance planning, improve resource allocation and mobilisation, and to avoid funding bottlenecks, as well as to ensure that co-funding arrangements are appropriate. This study aimed to map the resource envelope and flows for immunisation in Uganda in 2009/10 and 2010/11. METHODS: To assess costs and financing of immunisation, the study applied a common methodology as part of the multi-country Expanded Program on Immunisation Costing (EPIC) study (Brenzel et al., 2015). The financial mapping developed a customised extension of the System of Health Accounts (SHA) codes to explore immunisation financing in detail. Data were collected from government and external sources. The mapping was able to assess financing more comprehensively than many studies, and the simultaneous costing of routine immunisation collected detailed data about human resources costs. RESULTS: The Ugandan government contributed 56% and 42% of routine immunisation funds in 2009/10 and 2010/11, respectively, higher than previously estimated, and managed up to 90% of funds. Direct delivery of services used 93% of the immunisation financial resources in 2010/11, while the above service delivery costs were small (7%). Vaccines and supplies (41%) and salaries (38%) absorbed most funding. There were differences in the key cost categories between actual resource flows and the estimates from the comprehensive multi-year plan (cMYP). CONCLUSIONS: Results highlight that governments and partners need to improve systems to routinely track immunisation financing flows for enhanced accountability, performance, and sustainability. The modified SHA coding allowed financing to be mapped to specific immunisation activities, and could be used for standardised, resource tracking compatible with National Health Accounts (NHA). Recommendations are made for refining routine resource mapping approaches.

A pilot study assessing the impact of a fortified supplementary food on the health and well-being of crèche children and adult TB patients in South Africa.

The South African population faces many of the global concerns relating to micronutrient deficiency and the impact this has on health and well-being. Moreover, there is a high prevalence of HIV infection, compounded by a high level of co-infection with TB.This pilot study evaluates the impact of a fortified supplementary food on the health and well-being of a cohort of crèche children, aged 3 to 6, and adult TB patients drawn from the Presidential Node of Alexandra, Johannesburg, South Africa. A further aim of this study was to evaluate the sensitivity and validity of non-invasive indicators of nutritional status in a field-based population sample.The investigational product, e'Pap, is supported by extensive anecdotal evidence that whole grain cereals with food-style nutrients constitute an effective supplementary food for those suffering from the effects of food insecurity, poor health and well-being, and coping with TB and HIV infection.The results indicate a beneficial effect of e'Pap for both study populations, and particularly for adult TB patients, whose baseline data reflected severe food insecurity and malnutrition in the majority of cases. There is evidence to suggest statistically significant improvements in key micronutrient levels, well-being and energy, hand-grip strength, the Bioelectrical Impedance Analysis (BIA) Illness Marker, and certain clinical indicators. Although Body Mass Index (BMI) and Mid Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) are frequently used as standard measures to evaluate the efficacy of nutritional interventions, these indicators were not sufficiently sensitive in this study. Nor does weight gain necessarily indicate improved nutritional status. Hand-grip strength, lean body mass, and the BIA Illness Marker seem to be more useful indicators of change in nutritional status.

Predictors of loss to follow-up among children in the first and second years of antiretroviral treatment in Johannesburg, South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Ninety percent of the world's 2.1 million HIV-infected children live in sub-Saharan Africa, and 2.5% of South African children live with HIV. As HIV care and treatment programmes are scaled-up, a rise in loss to follow-up (LTFU) has been observed. OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study was to determine the rate of LTFU in children receiving antiretroviral treatment (ART) and to identify baseline characteristics associated with LTFU in the first year of treatment. We also explored the effect of patient characteristics at 12 months treatment on LTFU in the second year. METHODS: The study is an analysis of prospectively collected routine data of HIV-infected children at the Harriet Shezi Children's Clinic (HSCC) in Soweto, Johannesburg. Cox proportional hazards models were fitted to investigate associations between baseline characteristics and 12-month characteristics with LTFU in the first and second year on ART, respectively. RESULTS: The cumulative probability of LTFU at 12 months was 7.3% (95% CI 7.1-8.8). In the first 12 months on ART, independent predictors of LTFU were age <1 year at initiation, recent year of ART start, mother as a primary caregiver, and being underweight (WAZ ≤ -2). Among children still on treatment at 1 year from ART initiation, characteristics that predicted LTFU within the second year were recent year of ART start, mother as a primary caregiver, being underweight (WAZ ≤ -2), and low CD4 cell percentage. CONCLUSIONS: There are similarities between the known predictors of death and the predictors of LTFU in the first and second years of ART. Knowing the vital status of children is important to determine LTFU. Although HIV-positive children cared for by their mothers appear to be at greater risk of becoming LTFU, further research is needed to explore the challenges faced by mothers and other caregivers and their impact on long-term HIV care. There is also a need to investigate the effects of differential access to ART between mothers and children and its impact on ART outcomes in children.

Antiretroviral therapy refusal among newly diagnosed HIV-infected adults.

OBJECTIVE: To determine rates and predictors of treatment refusal in newly identified HIV-infected individuals in Soweto, South Africa. DESIGN: It is designed as a cross-sectional study. METHODS: We analyzed data from adult clients (>18 years) presenting for voluntary counseling and testing (VCT) at the Zazi Testing Center, Perinatal HIV Research Unit to determine rates of antiretroviral therapy (ART) refusal among treatment-eligible, HIV-infected individuals (CD4(+) cell count < 200 cells/µl or WHO stage 4). Multiple logistic regression models were used to investigate factors associated with refusal. RESULTS: From December 2008 to December 2009, 7287 adult clients were HIV tested after counseling. Two thousand, five hundred and sixty-two (35%) were HIV-infected, of whom 743 (29%) were eligible for immediate ART. One hundred and forty-eight (20%) refused referral to initiate ART, most of whom (92%) continued to refuse after 2 months of counseling. The leading reason for ART refusal was given as 'feeling healthy' (37%), despite clients having a median CD4(+) cell count of 110 cells/µl and triple the rate of active tuberculosis as seen in nonrefusers. In adjusted models, single clients [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 1.80, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.06-3.06] and those with active tuberculosis (AOR 3.50, 95% CI 1.55-6.61) were more likely to refuse ART. CONCLUSION: Nearly one in five treatment-eligible HIV-infected individuals in Soweto refused to initiate ART after VCT, putting them at higher risk for early mortality. 'Feeling healthy' was given as the most common reason to refuse ART, despite a suppressed CD4(+) count and comorbidities such as tuberculosis. These findings highlight the urgent need for research to inform interventions targeting ART refusers.