Infectious disease modelling for SARS-CoV-2 in Africa to guide policy: A systematic review.

Applied epidemiological models have played a critical role in understanding the transmission and control of disease outbreaks. Their utility and accuracy in decision-making on appropriate responses during public health emergencies is however a factor of their calibration to local data, evidence informing model assumptions, speed of obtaining and communicating their results, ease of understanding and willingness by policymakers to use their insights. We conducted a systematic review of infectious disease models focused on SARS-CoV-2 in Africa to determine: a) spatial and temporal patterns of SARS-CoV-2 modelling in Africa, b) use of local data to calibrate the models and local expertise in modelling activities, and c) key modelling questions and policy insights. We searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Science and MedRxiv databases following the PRISMA guidelines to obtain all SARS-CoV-2 dynamic modelling papers for one or multiple African countries. We extracted data on countries studied, authors and their affiliations, modelling questions addressed, type of models used, use of local data to calibrate the models, and model insights for guiding policy decisions. A total of 74 papers met the inclusion criteria, with nearly two-thirds of these coming from 6% (3) of the African countries. Initial papers were published 2 months after the first cases were reported in Africa, with most papers published after the first wave. More than half of all papers (53, 78%) and (48, 65%) had a first and last author affiliated to an African institution respectively, and only 12% (9) used local data for model calibration. A total of 60% (46) of the papers modelled assessment of control interventions. The transmission rate parameter was found to drive the most uncertainty in the sensitivity analysis for majority of the models. The use of dynamic models to draw policy insights was crucial and therefore there is need to increase modelling capacity in the continent.

Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of patients hospitalised with COVID-19 in Kenya: a multicentre cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To assess outcomes of patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 and to determine the predictors of mortality. SETTING: This study was conducted in six facilities, which included both government and privately run secondary and tertiary level facilities in the central and coastal regions of Kenya. PARTICIPANTS: We enrolled 787 reverse transcriptase-PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV2-infected persons. Patients whose records could not be accessed were excluded. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was COVID-19-related death. We used Cox proportional hazards regressions to determine factors related to in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: Data from patients with 787 COVID-19 were available. The median age was 43 years (IQR 30-53), with 505 (64%) being men. At admission, 455 (58%) were symptomatic with an additional 63 (9%) developing clinical symptoms during hospitalisation. The most common symptoms were cough (337, 43%), loss of taste or smell (279, 35%) and fever (126, 16%). Comorbidities were reported in 340 (43%), with cardiovascular disease, diabetes and HIV documented in 130 (17%), 116 (15%), 53 (7%), respectively. 90 (11%) were admitted to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) for a mean of 11 days, 52 (7%) were ventilated with a mean of 10 days, 107 (14%) died. The risk of death increased with age (HR 1.57 (95% CI 1.13 to 2.19)) for persons >60 years compared with those <60 years old; having comorbidities (HR 2.34 (1.68 to 3.25)) and among men (HR 1.76 (1.27 to 2.44)) compared with women. Elevated white cell count and aspartate aminotransferase were associated with higher risk of death. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of death from COVID-19 is high among older patients, those with comorbidities and among men. Clinical parameters including patient clinical signs, haematology and liver function tests were associated with risk of death and may guide stratification of high-risk patients.

Rabies Elimination in Rural Kenya: Need for Improved Availability of Human Vaccines, Awareness and Knowledge on Rabies and Its Management Among Healthcare Workers.

Background: In Africa, rabies causes an estimated 24,000 human deaths annually. Mass dog vaccinations coupled with timely post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) for dog-bite patients are the main interventions to eliminate human rabies deaths. A well-informed healthcare workforce and the availability and accessibility of rabies biologicals at health facilities are critical in reducing rabies deaths. We assessed awareness and knowledge regarding rabies and the management of rabies among healthcare workers, and PEP availability in rural eastern Kenya. Methodology: We interviewed 73 healthcare workers from 42 healthcare units in 13 wards in Makueni and Kibwezi West sub-counties, Makueni County, Kenya in November 2018. Data on demographics, years of work experience, knowledge of rabies, management of bite and rabies patients, and availability of rabies biologicals were collected and analyzed. Results: Rabies PEP vaccines were available in only 5 (12%) of 42 health facilities. None of the health facilities had rabies immunoglobulins in stock at the time of the study. PEP was primarily administered intramuscularly, with only 11% (n = 8) of the healthcare workers and 17% (7/42) healthcare facilities aware of the dose-sparing intradermal route. Less than a quarter of the healthcare workers were aware of the World Health Organization categorization of bite wounds that guides the use of PEP. Eighteen percent (n = 13) of healthcare workers reported they would administer PEP for category I exposures even though PEP is not recommended for this category of exposure. Only one of six respondents with acute encephalitis consultation considered rabies as a differential diagnosis highlighting the low index of suspicion for rabies. Conclusion: The availability and use of PEP for rabies was sub-optimal. We identified two urgent needs to support rabies elimination programmes: improving availability and access to PEP; and targeted training of the healthcare workers to improve awareness on bite wound management, judicious use of PEP including appropriate risk assessment following bites and the use of the dose-sparing intradermal route in facilities seeing multiple bite patients. Global and domestic funding plan that address these gaps in the human health sector is needed for efficient rabies elimination in Africa.

Morbidity and mortality of tetanus at Kenyatta National Hospital: a ten-year case audit

Introduction: Tetanus is a major health problem in developing countries, and is associated with high a morbidity and mortality. There are no recent local data in Kenya on the impact of the disease in terms of morbidity and mortality. The objective of this study was to describe the type, severity, risk factors, immunization history and outcome of tetanus patients at Kenyatta National Hospital (KNH). Method: This was a retrospective descriptive study of patients with a clinical diagnosis of tetanus admitted to KNH over ten years, who were aged 13 years and above. All available files with tetanus diagnosis were selected, and the patients' data were retrieved and analysed using SPSS Software version 21.0. Results: Out of 53 patients with tetanus, 50 (94.3%) were males and 3 (5.7%) were females. The mean age at presentation was 33.2 years (SD= 15.6). Only 4 (7.5%) patients had prior tetanus immunization. The commonest risk factor was acute injury - seen in 37 (69.8%) patients. The common site of injury was the lower limb - seen in 26 (49.1%) patients. The incubation period ranged from 3 to 90 days (IQR 7-17). Generalized tetanus was the commonest form found in 50 (94.3%) patients. Only 16 (30.2%) patients were managed in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU). The overall mortality was 49.1%. Conclusion: Tetanus mortality is still high as reported in many other studies. Most patients were males without prior immunization history. Only few patients were managed in Intensive Care Unit. We recommend advocacy on tetanus immunization and booster dosing

Examining unit costs for COVID-19 case management in Kenya.

INTRODUCTION: We estimated unit costs for COVID-19 case management for patients with asymptomatic, mild-to-moderate, severe and critical COVID-19 disease in Kenya. METHODS: We estimated per-day unit costs of COVID-19 case management for patients. We used a bottom-up approach to estimate full economic costs and adopted a health system perspective and patient episode of care as our time horizon. We obtained data on inputs and their quantities from data provided by three public COVID-19 treatment hospitals in Kenya and augmented this with guidelines. We obtained input prices from a recent costing survey of 20 hospitals in Kenya and from market prices for Kenya. RESULTS: Per-day, per-patient unit costs for asymptomatic patients and patients with mild-to-moderate COVID-19 disease under home-based care are 1993.01 Kenyan shilling (KES) (US$18.89) and 1995.17 KES (US$18.991), respectively. When these patients are managed in an isolation centre or hospital, the same unit costs for asymptomatic patients and patients with mild-to-moderate disease are 6717.74 KES (US$63.68) and 6719.90 KES (US$63.70), respectively. Per-day unit costs for patients with severe COVID-19 disease managed in general hospital wards and those with critical COVID-19 disease admitted in intensive care units are 13 137.07 KES (US$124.53) and 63 243.11 KES (US$599.51). CONCLUSION: COVID-19 case management costs are substantial, ranging between two and four times the average claims value reported by Kenya's public health insurer. Kenya will need to mobilise substantial resources and explore service delivery adaptations that will reduce unit costs.

Point of care testing evaluation of lateral flow immunoassay for diagnosis of cryptococcus meningitis in HIV-positive patients at an urban hospital in Nairobi, Kenya, 2017.

OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of lateral flow immunoassay (LFA) against latex agglutination (LA), India ink and culture in point-of-care diagnosis of cryptococcus meningitis (CM). We conducted cross-sectional study among HIV-positive patients with suspected CM at Mbagathi Hospital, Nairobi, April-July 2017. RESULTS: Of 124 capillary blood and serum and 99 cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples, LFA and LA had a concurrence on serum of 94.4%, kappa (0.88), sensitivity (100%) and specificity (91%). LFA and LA on CSF, was 97.9%, kappa (0.96), sensitivity (100%) and specificity (96%). LFA and India ink was 96.9%, kappa (0.94), sensitivity (100%) and specificity (94.1%). On CSF culture, concurrence was 72.7%, kappa (0.43), sensitivity (100%) and specificity (64%) and of LFA on capillary blood, serum and CSF was 100% with kappa (1.00), sensitivity and specificity of 100%.

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) in East Africa: red alert or red herring?

BACKGROUND: Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is associated with significant morbidity and mortality and has resultant important economic and societal costs underscoring the need for accurate surveillance. In recent years, prevalence rates reported in East Africa have been inconsistent, sparking controversy and raising concern. METHODS: We described antimicrobial susceptibility patterns of Staphylococcus aureus isolates cultured from patients within the Internal Medicine department of the largest public healthcare facility in East and Central Africa- the Kenyatta National Hospital (KNH) in Nairobi, Kenya. Routine antimicrobial susceptibility data from non-duplicate Staphylococcus aureus isolates cultured between the years 2014-2016 from the medical wards in KNH were reviewed. RESULTS: Antimicrobial susceptibility data from a total of 187 Staphylococcus aureus isolates revealed an overall MRSA prevalence of 53.4%. Isolates remained highly susceptible to linezolid, tigecycline, teicoplanin and vancomycin. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of MRSA was found to be much higher than that reported in private tertiary facilities in the same region. Careful interrogation of antimicrobial susceptibility results is important to uproot any red herrings and reserve genuine cause for alarm, as this has a critical bearing on health and economic outcomes for a population.

Bridging antimicrobial resistance knowledge gaps: The East African perspective on a global problem.

BACKGROUND: There is worldwide concern of rapidly increasing antimicrobial resistance (AMR). However, there is paucity of resistance surveillance data and updated antibiograms in Africa in general. This study was undertaken in Kenyatta National Hospital (KNH) -the largest public tertiary referral centre in East & Central Africa-to help bridge existing AMR knowledge and practice gaps. METHODS: A retrospective review of VITEK 2 (bioMérieux) records capturing antimicrobial susceptibility data for the year 2015 was done and analysed using WHONET and SPSS. RESULTS: Analysis of 624 isolates revealed AMR rates higher than most recent local and international reports. 88% of isolates tested were multi-drug resistant (MDR) whereas 26% were extensively-drug resistant (XDR). E. coli and K. pneumoniae had poor susceptibility to penicillins (8-48%), cephalosporins (16-43%), monobactams (17-29%), fluoroquinolones (22-44%) and trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole (7%). Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Acinetobacter baumanii were resistant to penicillins and cephalosporins, with reduced susceptibility to carbapenems (70% and 27% respectively). S aureus had poor susceptibility to penicillins (3%) and trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole (29%) but showed excellent susceptibility to imipenem (90%), vancomycin (97%) and linezolid (99%). CONCLUSIONS: The overwhelming resistance to commonly used antibiotics heralds a clarion call towards strengthening antimicrobial stewardship programmes and regular AMR regional surveillance.

Developing a seasonal influenza vaccine recommendation in Kenya: Process and challenges faced by the National Immunization Technical Advisory Group (NITAG).

BACKGROUND: In 2014 the Kenya National Immunization Technical Advisory Group (KENITAG) was asked by the Ministry of Health to provide an evidence-based recommendation on whether the seasonal influenza vaccine should be introduced into the national immunization program (NIP). METHODS: We reviewed KENITAG manuals, reports and meeting minutes generated between June 2014 and June 2016 in order to describe the process KENITAG used in arriving at that recommendation and the challenges encountered. RESULTS: KENITAG developed a recommendation framework to identify critical, important and non-critical data elements that would guide deliberations on the subject. Literature searches were conducted in several databases and the quality of scientific articles obtained was assessed using the Critical Appraisal Skills Programme tool. There were significant gaps in knowledge on the national burden of influenza disease among key risk groups, i.e., pregnant women, individuals with co-morbidities, the elderly and health care workers. Insufficient funding and limited work force hindered KENITAG activities. In 2016 KENITAG recommended introduction of the annual seasonal influenza vaccine among children 6 to 23 months of age. However, the recommendation was contingent on implementation of a pilot study to address gaps in local data on the socio-economic impact of influenza vaccination programs, strategies for vaccine delivery, and the impact of the vaccination program on the healthcare workforce and existing immunization program. KENITAG did not recommend the influenza vaccine for any other risk group due to lack of local burden of disease data. CONCLUSION: Local data are a critical element in NITAG deliberations, however, where local data and in particular burden of disease data are lacking, there is need to adopt scientifically acceptable methods of utilizing findings from other countries to inform local decisions in a manner that is valid and acceptable to decision makers.

Strong Association Between Human and Animal Brucella Seropositivity in a Linked Study in Kenya, 2012-2013.

Brucellosis is a common bacterial zoonotic infection but data on the prevalence among humans and animals is limited in Kenya. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in three counties practicing different livestock production systems to simultaneously assess the seroprevalence of, and risk factors for brucellosis among humans and their livestock (cattle, sheep, camels, and goats). A two-stage cluster sampling method with random selection of sublocations and households was conducted. Blood samples were collected from humans and animals and tested for Brucella immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies. Human and animal individual seroprevalence was 16% and 8%, respectively. Household and herd seroprevalence ranged from 5% to 73% and 6% to 68%, respectively. There was a 6-fold odds of human seropositivity in households with a seropositive animal compared with those without. Risk factors for human seropositivity included regular ingestion of raw milk (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 3.5, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.8-4.4), exposure to goats (herding, milking, and feeding) (aOR = 3.1, 95% CI = 2.5-3.8), and handling of animal hides (aOR = 1.8, 95% CI = 1.5-2.2). Attaining at least high school education and above was a protective factor for human seropositivity (aOR = 0.3, 95% CI = 0.3-0.4). This linked study provides evidence of a strong association between human and animal seropositivity at the household level.

Overview of influenza virus infections in Kenya: past, present and future.

The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that acute lower respiratory infections account for 4 million deaths per year. The rates are even higher in developing countries. Influenza, a virus causing respiratory infections, has widely been studied in developed countries. However, there is paucity of data on its epidemiology, seasonality and burden in most developing countries. In the contrary, Kenya (a developing country) has an elaborate national epidemio-surveillance network for influenza, where a lot of data is generated on the epidemiology and seasonality of influenza in Kenya and the East African region. Several steps have been taken to control influenza in Kenya, including vaccination and surveillance programs. However, some challenges still exist. This article explores the pattern of influenza and existing interventions in Kenya, and highlights suggestions on what can be done to adequately control this virus in future.