Predicting healthcare expenditure based on Adjusted Morbidity Groups to implement a needs-based capitation financing system.

BACKGROUND: Due to population aging, healthcare expenditure is projected to increase substantially in developed countries like Spain. However, prior research indicates that health status, not merely age, is a key driver of healthcare costs. This study analyzed data from over 1.25 million residents of Spain's Murcia region to develop a capitation-based healthcare financing model incorporating health status via Adjusted Morbidity Groups (AMGs). The goal was to simulate an equitable area-based healthcare budget allocation reflecting population needs. METHODS: Using 2017 data on residents' age, sex, AMG designation, and individual healthcare costs, generalized linear models were built to predict healthcare expenditure based on health status indicators. Multiple link functions and distribution families were tested, with model selection guided by information criteria, residual analysis, and goodness-of-fit statistics. The selected model was used to estimate adjusted populations and simulate capitated budgets for the 9 healthcare districts in Murcia. RESULTS: The gamma distribution with logarithmic link function provided the best model fit. Comparisons of predicted and actual average costs revealed underfunded and overfunded areas within Murcia. If implemented, the capitation model would decrease funding for most districts (up to 15.5%) while increasing it for two high-need areas, emphasizing allocation based on health status and standardized utilization rather than historical spending alone. CONCLUSIONS: AMG-based capitated budgeting could improve equity in healthcare financing across regions in Spain. By explicitly incorporating multimorbidity burden into allocation formulas, resources can be reallocated towards areas with poorer overall population health. Further policy analysis and adjustment is needed before full-scale implementation of such need-based global budgets.

A feasible estimation of a 'corrected' EQ-5D social tariff.

OBJECTIVES: To demonstrate the feasibility of estimating a social tariff free of utility curvature and probability weighting biases, and to test transferability between riskless and risky contexts. METHODS: Valuations for a selection of EQ-5D-3L health states were collected from a large and representative sample (n=1,676) of the Spanish general population through computer-assisted personal interviewing (CAPI). Two elicitation methods were used: the traditional time trade-off (TTO), and a novel risky-TTO (rTTO) procedure. Both methods are equivalent for better than death states, which allowed us to test transferability of utilities across riskless and risky contexts. Corrective procedures applied are based on rank-dependent utility (RDU) theory, identifying parameter estimates at individual level. All corrections are health-state specific, which is a unique feature of our corrective approach. RESULTS: Two corrected value sets for the EQ-5D-3L system are estimated, highlighting the feasibility of developing national tariffs under non-expected utility theories like RDU. Furthermore, transferability was not supported for at least half of the health states valued by our sample. CONCLUSIONS: It is feasible to estimate a social tariff by using interviewing techniques, sample sizes, and sample representativeness equivalent to prior studies designed to generate national value sets for the EQ-5D. Utilities obtained in distinct contexts may not be interchangeable. Our findings caution against routinely taking transferability of utility for granted.

Design of a multiple criteria decision analysis framework for prioritizing high-impact health technologies in a regional health service.

OBJECTIVES: This study aims to develop a framework for establishing priorities in the regional health service of Murcia, Spain, to facilitate the creation of a comprehensive multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework. This framework will aid in decision-making processes related to the assessment, reimbursement, and utilization of high-impact health technologies. METHOD: Based on the results of a review of existing frameworks for MCDA of health technologies, a set of criteria was proposed to be used in the context of evaluating high-impact health technologies. Key stakeholders within regional healthcare services, including clinical leaders and management personnel, participated in a focus group (n = 11) to discuss the proposed criteria and select the final fifteen. To elicit the weights of the criteria, two surveys were administered, one to a small sample of healthcare professionals (n = 35) and another to a larger representative sample of the general population (n = 494). RESULTS: The responses obtained from health professionals in the weighting procedure exhibited greater consistency compared to those provided by the general public. The criteria more highly weighted were "Need for intervention" and "Intervention outcomes." The weights finally assigned to each item in the multicriteria framework were derived as the equal-weighted sum of the mean weights from the two samples. CONCLUSIONS: A multi-attribute function capable of generating a composite measure (multicriteria) to assess the value of high-impact health interventions has been developed. Furthermore, it is recommended to pilot this procedure in a specific decision context to evaluate the efficacy, feasibility, usefulness, and reliability of the proposed tool.

A Spanish value set for the SF-6D based on the SF-12 v1.

AIM: This paper reports the first estimation of an SF-6D value set based on the SF-12 for Spain. METHODS: A representative sample (n = 1020) of the Spanish general population valued a selection of 56 hypothetical SF-6D health states by means of a probability lottery equivalent (PLE) method. The value set was derived using both random effects and mean models estimated by ordinary least squares (OLS). The best model was chosen on the basis of its predictive ability assessed in terms of mean absolute error (MAE). RESULTS: The model yielding the lowest MAE (0.075) was that based on main effects using OLS. Pain was the most significant dimension in predicting health state severity. Comparison with the previous SF-6D (SF-36) model estimated for Spain revealed no significant differences, with a similar MAE (0.081). Nevertheless, the new SF-6D (SF-12) model predicted higher utilities than those generated by the SF-6D (SF-36) scoring algorithm (minimum value - 0.071 vs - 0.357). CONCLUSION: A value set for the SF-6D (SF-12) based on Spanish general population preferences elicited by means of a PLE technique is successfully estimated. The new estimated SF-6D (SF-12) preference-based measure provides a valuable tool for researchers and policymakers to assess the cost-effectiveness of new health technologies in Spain.

Testing Nonmonotonicity in Health Preferences.

OBJECTIVE: The main aim of this article is to test monotonicity in life duration. Previous findings suggest that, for poor health states, longer durations are preferred to shorter durations up to some threshold or maximum endurable time (MET), and shorter durations are preferred to longer ones after that threshold. METHODS: Monotonicity in duration is tested through 2 ordinal tasks: choices and rankings. A convenience sample (n = 90) was recruited in a series of experimental sessions in which participants had to rank-order health episodes and to choose between them, presented in pairs. Health episodes result from the combination of 7 EQ-5D-3L health states and 5 durations. Monotonicity is tested comparing the percentage rate of participants whose preferences were monotonic with the percentage of participants with nonmonotonic preferences for each health state. In addition, to test the existence of preference reversals, we analyze the fraction of people who switch their preference from rankings to choices. RESULTS: Monotonicity is frequently violated across the 7 EQ-5D health states. Preference patterns for individuals describe violations ranging from almost 49% with choices to about 71% with rankings. Analysis performed by separate states shows that the mean rates of violations with choices and ranking are about 22% and 34%, respectively. We also find new evidence of preference reversals and some evidence-though scarce-of transitivity violations in choices. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show that there is a medium range of health states for which preferences are nonmonotonic. These findings support previous evidence on MET preferences and introduce a new "choice-ranking" preference reversal. It seems that the use of 2 tasks with a similar response scale may make preference reversals less substantial, although it remains important and systematic. HIGHLIGHTS: Two procedures based on ordinal comparisons are used to elicit preferences: direct choices and rankings. Our study reports significant rates of nonmonotonic preferences (or maximum endurable time [MET]-type preferences) for different combinations of durations and EQ-5D health states.Analysis for separate health states shows that the mean rates of nonmonotonicity range from 22% (choices) to 34% (rankings), but within-subject analysis shows that nonmonotonicity is even higher, ranging from 49% (choices) to 71% (rankings). These violations challenge the validity of multiplicative QALY models.We find that the MET phenomenon may affect particularly those EQ-5D health states that are in the middle of the severity scale and not so much the extreme health states (i.e., very mild and very severe states).We find new evidence of preference reversals even using 2 procedures of a similar (ordinal) nature. Percentage rates of preference reversals range from 1.5% to 33%. We also find some (although scarce) evidence on violations of transitivity.

Impacto de la Ley de Dependencia sobre el gasto autonómico en servicios sociales / Impact of the Dependency Act on regional spending on social services

OBJETIVO: En este trabajo se cuestiona si el desarrollo del Sistema de Autonomía y Atención a la Dependencia (SAAD) contribuyó a incrementar el volumen de recursos del sistema público de servicios sociales (efecto desplazamiento) o, por el contrario, si dicho desarrollo se produjo a costa del resto de prestaciones de servicios sociales (efecto sustitución). MÉTODO: Se realiza una aproximación de datos de panel, orientada a explicar el comportamiento del gasto per cápita en servicios sociales para las comunidades autónomas españolas de régimen común en el periodo 2002-2016. RESULTADOS: La introducción del SAAD se asocia con un incremento del 14% en el gasto por habitante en servicios sociales. Este efecto se acerca al 25% cuando la variable explicada es el gasto en transferencias corrientes de carácter social. También se constata que los cambios legislativos introducidos en 2012 y 2013 se asociaron a una reducción del gasto per cápita en transferencias corrientes del 10%. CONCLUSIONES: Esta evidencia refutaría la hipótesis de que el SAAD ha originado meramente un efecto de «sustitución» en el gasto autonómico en servicios sociales

OBJECTIVE: In this paper we address whether the System for Personal Autonomy and Care of Dependent Persons contributes to increasing the volume of resources of the public social services system (displacement effect) or, on the contrary, whether this development has taken place at the expense of other social services (substitution effect). METHOD: Panel data analysis is used to explain how per capita expenditure on social services evolves in the Spanish Regions under the common regime in the period 2002-2016. RESULTS: The implementation of the Dependency Act is associated with a 14% increase in the level of per capita expenditure on social services. This effect raises 25% when the variable explained is expenditure on current transfers of a social nature. On the other hand, law changes introduced in 2012 and 2013 were associated with a reduction in per capita expenditure on current transfers of around 10%. CONCLUSIONS: This evidence would refute the hypothesis that the System for Personal Autonomy and Care of Dependent Persons had merely a "substitution" effect on autonomous spending on social services

[Impact of the Dependency Act on regional spending on social services]. / Impacto de la Ley de Dependencia sobre el gasto autonómico en servicios sociales.

OBJECTIVE: In this paper we address whether the System for Personal Autonomy and Care of Dependent Persons contributes to increasing the volume of resources of the public social services system (displacement effect) or, on the contrary, whether this development has taken place at the expense of other social services (substitution effect). METHOD: Panel data analysis is used to explain how per capita expenditure on social services evolves in the Spanish Regions under the common regime in the period 2002-2016. RESULTS: The implementation of the Dependency Act is associated with a 14% increase in the level of per capita expenditure on social services. This effect raises 25% when the variable explained is expenditure on current transfers of a social nature. On the other hand, law changes introduced in 2012 and 2013 were associated with a reduction in per capita expenditure on current transfers of around 10%. CONCLUSIONS: This evidence would refute the hypothesis that the System for Personal Autonomy and Care of Dependent Persons had merely a "substitution" effect on autonomous spending on social services.

[How it should be enabled network cooperation on healthcare services. Towards an HispaNICE?] / Cómo articular la cooperación en red de los recursos sobre conocimiento y evaluación en salud y servicios sanitarios en España. ¿Hacia un HispaNICE?

Although the Spanish Network of Health Technology Assessment was founded in 2012, it is true that its actual influence on the rationalization of the National Health System's healthcare basket is scarce. The main argument of this article is that the Spanish Network of HTA should work "as if" it was an HispaNICE. That is to say, transferring the NICE's advantages to Spanish context.

[Monetary value of the human costs of road traffic injuries in Spain]. / La valoración monetaria de los costes humanos de la siniestralidad vial en España.

Cost-benefit analyses in the field of road safety compute human costs as a key component of total costs. The present article presents two studies promoted by the Directorate-General for Traffic aimed at obtaining official values for the costs associated with fatal and non-fatal traffic injuries in Spain. We combined the contingent valuation approach and the (modified) standard gamble technique in two surveys administered to large representative samples (n1=2,020, n2=2,000) of the Spanish population. The monetary value of preventing a fatality was estimated to be 1.4 million euros. Values of 219,000 and 6,100 euros were obtained for minor and severe non-fatal injuries, respectively. These figures are comparable to those observed in neighboring countries.

La valoración monetaria de los costes humanos de la siniestralidad vial en España / Monetary value of the human costs of road traffic injuries in Spain

Los análisis coste-beneficio en el ámbito de la seguridad vial han de computar la totalidad de los costes, y dentro de ellos ocupan un lugar clave los costes humanos. En esta nota se da cuenta de dos estudios promovidos por la Dirección General de Tráfico orientados a la obtención de valores oficiales para España de los costes asociados a las víctimas mortales y no mortales de los accidentes de tráfico. Mediante la combinación del enfoque de la valoración contingente con la técnica de la lotería estándar (modificada), y con muestras amplias (n1=2020, n2=2000) representativas de la población española, se estimó en 1,4 millones de euros el valor monetario de prevenir un fallecido por accidente de tráfico. Para las lesiones graves y leves, los valores estimados fueron de 219.000 y 6100 euros, respectivamente. Las cifras obtenidas tienen un orden de magnitud similar al de los países de nuestro entorno (AU)

Cost-benefit analyses in the field of road safety compute human costs as a key component of total costs. The present article presents two studies promoted by the Directorate-General for Traffic aimed at obtaining official values for the costs associated with fatal and non-fatal traffic injuries in Spain. We combined the contingent valuation approach and the (modified) standard gamble technique in two surveys administered to large representative samples (n1=2,020, n2=2,000) of the Spanish population. The monetary value of preventing a fatality was estimated to be 1.4 million euros. Values of 219,000 and 6,100 euros were obtained for minor and severe non-fatal injuries, respectively. These figures are comparable to those observed in neighboring countries (AU)

Lowering the 'floor' of the SF-6D scoring algorithm using a lottery equivalent method.

This paper presents a new scoring algorithm for the SF-6D, one of the most popular preference-based health status measures. Previous SF-6D value sets have a minimum (a floor), which is substantially higher than the lowest value generated by the EQ-5D model. Our algorithm expands the range of SF-6D utility scores in such a way that the floor is significantly lowered. We obtain the wider range because of the use of a lottery equivalent method through which preferences from a representative sample of Spanish general population are elicited.

[Quality assessment of economic evaluations in health care: a checklist and user guide]. / La medición de la calidad de los estudios de evaluación económica: Una propuesta de "checklist" para la toma de decisiones.

The aim of this paper is to promote the efficiency in the process of incorporating new health technologies, as well as to guide their implementation by physicians. An iterative method has been used to draw a checklist based on parsimony and measurability criteria. Authors made a first version of the checklist on the basis of theoretical literature and economic evaluation guidelines. This preliminary version was discussed and its validity was tested in two focus groups by doctors and managers of the regional public health systems of Murcia and Andalusia. As a result of this iterative process, we present a 12 criteria checklist in which a score is assigned to everyone of its items. The overall score a study receives (with a maximum of 100 points) is confronting to a set of cost per QALY thresholds, in order to assess if the technology been evaluated is cost-effective or not. The thresholds was selected from a previous study. We present a checklist and user guide which includes a cost per QALY thresholds matrix. This is an original proposal that has not been previously published in the Spanish literature. Our instrument needs some future improvements in terms of its validation and its spread to other types of cost-effectiveness analysis, apart from those that use QALYs. Nevertheless, our proposal may be useful to provide guidance on the usage and financing of new health technologies in Spain.

La medición de la calidad de los estudios de evaluación económica. una propuesta de ‘checklist’ para la toma de decisiones / Quality assessment of economic evaluations in health care: a checklist and user guide

El propósito del artículo es contribuir a mejorar la eficiencia con que se adoptan decisiones de incorporación de nuevas tecnologías sanitarias, así como orientar la utilización de aquéllas por parte de los servicios clínicos. Se sigue un método iterativo para la elaboración de una checklist inspirada en los criterios de parsimonia y mensurabilidad. Los autores formularon una versión preliminar sobre la base de la literatura teórica y de las guías de evaluación existentes, que se sometió a diversos tests de validez en el seno de sendos grupos focales compuestos por clínicos y gestores de los servicios regionales de salud de Murcia y Andalucía. El resultado de este proceso iterativo ha sido la confección de una checklist que consta de 12 criterios desglosados en varios ítems a los que se asigna una puntuación. Las puntuaciones totales (con un máximo de 100) asignadas a los estudios evaluados por aplicación de la checklist se relacionan por medio de una “Guía de uso” con una selección de umbrales coste-AVAC procedente de un trabajo previo de los autores, lo cual permite valorar si la tecnología evaluada es o no coste-efectiva. El instrumento que se presenta, compuesto por la lista de comprobación y una “guía de uso”, constituye una combinación inédita en la literatura previa española. A expensas de futuras mejoras en términos de validación y de la extensión de su uso a otros tipos de análisis coste-efectividad, esta propuesta permite formular recomendaciones sobre la financiación y utilización de nuevas tecnologías sanitarias en nuestro país (AU)

The aim of this paper is to promote the efficiency in the process of incorporating new health technologies, as well as to guide their implementation by physicians. An iterative method has been used to draw a checklist based on parsimony and measurability criteria. Authors made a first version of the checklist on the basis of theoretical literature and economic evaluation guidelines. This preliminary version was discussed and its validity was tested in two focus groups by doctors and managers of the regional public health systems of Murcia and Andalusia. As a result of this iterative process, we present a 12 criteria checklist in which a score is assigned to everyone of its items. The overall score a study receives (with a maximum of 100 points) is confronting to a set of cost per QALY thresholds, in order to assess if the technology been evaluated is cost-effective or not. The thresholds was selected from a previous study. We present a checklist and user guide which includes a cost per QALY thresholds matrix. This is an original proposal that has not been previously published in the Spanish literature. Our instrument needs some future improvements in terms of its validation and its spread to other types of cost-effectiveness analysis, apart from those that use QALYs. Nevertheless, our proposal may be useful to provide guidance on the usage and financing of new health technologies in Spain (AU)

Cost accounting and public reimbursement schemes in Spanish hospitals.

The objective of this paper is to provide a description and analysis of the main costing and pricing (reimbursement) systems employed by hospitals in the Spanish National Health System (NHS). Hospitals cost calculations are mostly based on a full costing approach as opposite to other systems like direct costing or activity based costing. Regional and hospital differences arise on the method used to allocate indirect costs to cost centres and also on the approach used to measure resource consumption. Costs are typically calculated by disaggregating expenditure and allocating it to cost centres, and then to patients and DRGs. Regarding public reimbursement systems, the impression is that unit costs are ignored, except for certain type of high technology processes and treatments.