Predicting healthcare expenditure based on Adjusted Morbidity Groups to implement a needs-based capitation financing system.

BACKGROUND: Due to population aging, healthcare expenditure is projected to increase substantially in developed countries like Spain. However, prior research indicates that health status, not merely age, is a key driver of healthcare costs. This study analyzed data from over 1.25 million residents of Spain's Murcia region to develop a capitation-based healthcare financing model incorporating health status via Adjusted Morbidity Groups (AMGs). The goal was to simulate an equitable area-based healthcare budget allocation reflecting population needs. METHODS: Using 2017 data on residents' age, sex, AMG designation, and individual healthcare costs, generalized linear models were built to predict healthcare expenditure based on health status indicators. Multiple link functions and distribution families were tested, with model selection guided by information criteria, residual analysis, and goodness-of-fit statistics. The selected model was used to estimate adjusted populations and simulate capitated budgets for the 9 healthcare districts in Murcia. RESULTS: The gamma distribution with logarithmic link function provided the best model fit. Comparisons of predicted and actual average costs revealed underfunded and overfunded areas within Murcia. If implemented, the capitation model would decrease funding for most districts (up to 15.5%) while increasing it for two high-need areas, emphasizing allocation based on health status and standardized utilization rather than historical spending alone. CONCLUSIONS: AMG-based capitated budgeting could improve equity in healthcare financing across regions in Spain. By explicitly incorporating multimorbidity burden into allocation formulas, resources can be reallocated towards areas with poorer overall population health. Further policy analysis and adjustment is needed before full-scale implementation of such need-based global budgets.

A feasible estimation of a 'corrected' EQ-5D social tariff.

OBJECTIVES: To demonstrate the feasibility of estimating a social tariff free of utility curvature and probability weighting biases, and to test transferability between riskless and risky contexts. METHODS: Valuations for a selection of EQ-5D-3L health states were collected from a large and representative sample (n=1,676) of the Spanish general population through computer-assisted personal interviewing (CAPI). Two elicitation methods were used: the traditional time trade-off (TTO), and a novel risky-TTO (rTTO) procedure. Both methods are equivalent for better than death states, which allowed us to test transferability of utilities across riskless and risky contexts. Corrective procedures applied are based on rank-dependent utility (RDU) theory, identifying parameter estimates at individual level. All corrections are health-state specific, which is a unique feature of our corrective approach. RESULTS: Two corrected value sets for the EQ-5D-3L system are estimated, highlighting the feasibility of developing national tariffs under non-expected utility theories like RDU. Furthermore, transferability was not supported for at least half of the health states valued by our sample. CONCLUSIONS: It is feasible to estimate a social tariff by using interviewing techniques, sample sizes, and sample representativeness equivalent to prior studies designed to generate national value sets for the EQ-5D. Utilities obtained in distinct contexts may not be interchangeable. Our findings caution against routinely taking transferability of utility for granted.

Design of a multiple criteria decision analysis framework for prioritizing high-impact health technologies in a regional health service.

OBJECTIVES: This study aims to develop a framework for establishing priorities in the regional health service of Murcia, Spain, to facilitate the creation of a comprehensive multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework. This framework will aid in decision-making processes related to the assessment, reimbursement, and utilization of high-impact health technologies. METHOD: Based on the results of a review of existing frameworks for MCDA of health technologies, a set of criteria was proposed to be used in the context of evaluating high-impact health technologies. Key stakeholders within regional healthcare services, including clinical leaders and management personnel, participated in a focus group (n = 11) to discuss the proposed criteria and select the final fifteen. To elicit the weights of the criteria, two surveys were administered, one to a small sample of healthcare professionals (n = 35) and another to a larger representative sample of the general population (n = 494). RESULTS: The responses obtained from health professionals in the weighting procedure exhibited greater consistency compared to those provided by the general public. The criteria more highly weighted were "Need for intervention" and "Intervention outcomes." The weights finally assigned to each item in the multicriteria framework were derived as the equal-weighted sum of the mean weights from the two samples. CONCLUSIONS: A multi-attribute function capable of generating a composite measure (multicriteria) to assess the value of high-impact health interventions has been developed. Furthermore, it is recommended to pilot this procedure in a specific decision context to evaluate the efficacy, feasibility, usefulness, and reliability of the proposed tool.

A Spanish value set for the SF-6D based on the SF-12 v1.

AIM: This paper reports the first estimation of an SF-6D value set based on the SF-12 for Spain. METHODS: A representative sample (n = 1020) of the Spanish general population valued a selection of 56 hypothetical SF-6D health states by means of a probability lottery equivalent (PLE) method. The value set was derived using both random effects and mean models estimated by ordinary least squares (OLS). The best model was chosen on the basis of its predictive ability assessed in terms of mean absolute error (MAE). RESULTS: The model yielding the lowest MAE (0.075) was that based on main effects using OLS. Pain was the most significant dimension in predicting health state severity. Comparison with the previous SF-6D (SF-36) model estimated for Spain revealed no significant differences, with a similar MAE (0.081). Nevertheless, the new SF-6D (SF-12) model predicted higher utilities than those generated by the SF-6D (SF-36) scoring algorithm (minimum value - 0.071 vs - 0.357). CONCLUSION: A value set for the SF-6D (SF-12) based on Spanish general population preferences elicited by means of a PLE technique is successfully estimated. The new estimated SF-6D (SF-12) preference-based measure provides a valuable tool for researchers and policymakers to assess the cost-effectiveness of new health technologies in Spain.

Testing Nonmonotonicity in Health Preferences.

OBJECTIVE: The main aim of this article is to test monotonicity in life duration. Previous findings suggest that, for poor health states, longer durations are preferred to shorter durations up to some threshold or maximum endurable time (MET), and shorter durations are preferred to longer ones after that threshold. METHODS: Monotonicity in duration is tested through 2 ordinal tasks: choices and rankings. A convenience sample (n = 90) was recruited in a series of experimental sessions in which participants had to rank-order health episodes and to choose between them, presented in pairs. Health episodes result from the combination of 7 EQ-5D-3L health states and 5 durations. Monotonicity is tested comparing the percentage rate of participants whose preferences were monotonic with the percentage of participants with nonmonotonic preferences for each health state. In addition, to test the existence of preference reversals, we analyze the fraction of people who switch their preference from rankings to choices. RESULTS: Monotonicity is frequently violated across the 7 EQ-5D health states. Preference patterns for individuals describe violations ranging from almost 49% with choices to about 71% with rankings. Analysis performed by separate states shows that the mean rates of violations with choices and ranking are about 22% and 34%, respectively. We also find new evidence of preference reversals and some evidence-though scarce-of transitivity violations in choices. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show that there is a medium range of health states for which preferences are nonmonotonic. These findings support previous evidence on MET preferences and introduce a new "choice-ranking" preference reversal. It seems that the use of 2 tasks with a similar response scale may make preference reversals less substantial, although it remains important and systematic. HIGHLIGHTS: Two procedures based on ordinal comparisons are used to elicit preferences: direct choices and rankings. Our study reports significant rates of nonmonotonic preferences (or maximum endurable time [MET]-type preferences) for different combinations of durations and EQ-5D health states.Analysis for separate health states shows that the mean rates of nonmonotonicity range from 22% (choices) to 34% (rankings), but within-subject analysis shows that nonmonotonicity is even higher, ranging from 49% (choices) to 71% (rankings). These violations challenge the validity of multiplicative QALY models.We find that the MET phenomenon may affect particularly those EQ-5D health states that are in the middle of the severity scale and not so much the extreme health states (i.e., very mild and very severe states).We find new evidence of preference reversals even using 2 procedures of a similar (ordinal) nature. Percentage rates of preference reversals range from 1.5% to 33%. We also find some (although scarce) evidence on violations of transitivity.

Post-Pandemic Feeding Patterns and Mediterranean Diet Adherence in Spanish Toddlers.

During the last decade, feeding patterns, more specifically those of children, have worsened-affecting dietary habits and Mediterranean diet adherence. Here, we examine the post-pandemic feeding habits of Spanish toddlers. A total of 2465 parents of children aged between 12 and 36 months completed an online 25-item multiple-choice survey asking about dietary habits and Mediterranean diet adherence. Only 34 children (1.38%) had an adequate intake of all of the food groups included in the questionnaire. Adherence worsened as toddlers grew (p < 0.0001). Further, lower compliance was found in children with a higher intake of fast food (p < 0.001), those with siblings (p = 0.0045), and children who were the second or third child (p = 0.0005). The food group with the most commonly reported adequate intake was fish (88% of children), followed by pulses (80%), water (79%), and meat (78%). Cow's milk was the most commonly consumed dairy product among all age groups analyzed. Half of the children exhibited a low consumption of milk and dairy products. These results showed that a lack of adherence to a balanced diet is common among Spanish toddlers in the post-pandemic period and that greater parent education could improve the nutrition of toddlers.

Impacto de la Ley de Dependencia sobre el gasto autonómico en servicios sociales / Impact of the Dependency Act on regional spending on social services

OBJETIVO: En este trabajo se cuestiona si el desarrollo del Sistema de Autonomía y Atención a la Dependencia (SAAD) contribuyó a incrementar el volumen de recursos del sistema público de servicios sociales (efecto desplazamiento) o, por el contrario, si dicho desarrollo se produjo a costa del resto de prestaciones de servicios sociales (efecto sustitución). MÉTODO: Se realiza una aproximación de datos de panel, orientada a explicar el comportamiento del gasto per cápita en servicios sociales para las comunidades autónomas españolas de régimen común en el periodo 2002-2016. RESULTADOS: La introducción del SAAD se asocia con un incremento del 14% en el gasto por habitante en servicios sociales. Este efecto se acerca al 25% cuando la variable explicada es el gasto en transferencias corrientes de carácter social. También se constata que los cambios legislativos introducidos en 2012 y 2013 se asociaron a una reducción del gasto per cápita en transferencias corrientes del 10%. CONCLUSIONES: Esta evidencia refutaría la hipótesis de que el SAAD ha originado meramente un efecto de «sustitución» en el gasto autonómico en servicios sociales

OBJECTIVE: In this paper we address whether the System for Personal Autonomy and Care of Dependent Persons contributes to increasing the volume of resources of the public social services system (displacement effect) or, on the contrary, whether this development has taken place at the expense of other social services (substitution effect). METHOD: Panel data analysis is used to explain how per capita expenditure on social services evolves in the Spanish Regions under the common regime in the period 2002-2016. RESULTS: The implementation of the Dependency Act is associated with a 14% increase in the level of per capita expenditure on social services. This effect raises 25% when the variable explained is expenditure on current transfers of a social nature. On the other hand, law changes introduced in 2012 and 2013 were associated with a reduction in per capita expenditure on current transfers of around 10%. CONCLUSIONS: This evidence would refute the hypothesis that the System for Personal Autonomy and Care of Dependent Persons had merely a "substitution" effect on autonomous spending on social services

[Impact of the Dependency Act on regional spending on social services]. / Impacto de la Ley de Dependencia sobre el gasto autonómico en servicios sociales.

OBJECTIVE: In this paper we address whether the System for Personal Autonomy and Care of Dependent Persons contributes to increasing the volume of resources of the public social services system (displacement effect) or, on the contrary, whether this development has taken place at the expense of other social services (substitution effect). METHOD: Panel data analysis is used to explain how per capita expenditure on social services evolves in the Spanish Regions under the common regime in the period 2002-2016. RESULTS: The implementation of the Dependency Act is associated with a 14% increase in the level of per capita expenditure on social services. This effect raises 25% when the variable explained is expenditure on current transfers of a social nature. On the other hand, law changes introduced in 2012 and 2013 were associated with a reduction in per capita expenditure on current transfers of around 10%. CONCLUSIONS: This evidence would refute the hypothesis that the System for Personal Autonomy and Care of Dependent Persons had merely a "substitution" effect on autonomous spending on social services.

Reducing preference reversals: The role of preference imprecision and nontransparent methods.

Preferences elicited with matching and choice usually diverge (as characterised by preference reversals), violating a basic rationality requirement, namely, procedure invariance. We report the results of an experiment that shows that preference reversals between matching (Standard Gamble in our case) and choice are reduced when the matching task is conducted using nontransparent methods. Our results suggest that techniques based on nontransparent methods are less influenced by biases (i.e., compatibility effects) than transparent methods. We also observe that imprecision of preferences influences the degree of preference reversals. The preference reversal phenomenon is less strong in subjects with more precise preferences.

Improving scope sensitivity in contingent valuation: Joint and separate evaluation of health states.

We present data of a contingent valuation survey, testing the effect of evaluation mode on the monetary valuation of preventing road accidents. Half of the interviewees was asked to state their willingness to pay (WTP) to reduce the risk of having only 1 type of injury (separate evaluation, SE), and the other half of the sample was asked to state their WTP for 4 types of injuries evaluated simultaneously (joint evaluation, JE). In the SE group, we observed lack of sensitivity to scope while in the JE group WTP increased with the severity of the injury prevented. However, WTP values in this group were subject to context effects. Our results suggest that the traditional explanation of the disparity between SE and JE, namely, the so-called "evaluability," does not apply here. The paper presents new explanations based on the role of preference imprecision.

[How it should be enabled network cooperation on healthcare services. Towards an HispaNICE?] / Cómo articular la cooperación en red de los recursos sobre conocimiento y evaluación en salud y servicios sanitarios en España. ¿Hacia un HispaNICE?

Although the Spanish Network of Health Technology Assessment was founded in 2012, it is true that its actual influence on the rationalization of the National Health System's healthcare basket is scarce. The main argument of this article is that the Spanish Network of HTA should work "as if" it was an HispaNICE. That is to say, transferring the NICE's advantages to Spanish context.

[Monetary value of the human costs of road traffic injuries in Spain]. / La valoración monetaria de los costes humanos de la siniestralidad vial en España.

Cost-benefit analyses in the field of road safety compute human costs as a key component of total costs. The present article presents two studies promoted by the Directorate-General for Traffic aimed at obtaining official values for the costs associated with fatal and non-fatal traffic injuries in Spain. We combined the contingent valuation approach and the (modified) standard gamble technique in two surveys administered to large representative samples (n1=2,020, n2=2,000) of the Spanish population. The monetary value of preventing a fatality was estimated to be 1.4 million euros. Values of 219,000 and 6,100 euros were obtained for minor and severe non-fatal injuries, respectively. These figures are comparable to those observed in neighboring countries.

La valoración monetaria de los costes humanos de la siniestralidad vial en España / Monetary value of the human costs of road traffic injuries in Spain

Los análisis coste-beneficio en el ámbito de la seguridad vial han de computar la totalidad de los costes, y dentro de ellos ocupan un lugar clave los costes humanos. En esta nota se da cuenta de dos estudios promovidos por la Dirección General de Tráfico orientados a la obtención de valores oficiales para España de los costes asociados a las víctimas mortales y no mortales de los accidentes de tráfico. Mediante la combinación del enfoque de la valoración contingente con la técnica de la lotería estándar (modificada), y con muestras amplias (n1=2020, n2=2000) representativas de la población española, se estimó en 1,4 millones de euros el valor monetario de prevenir un fallecido por accidente de tráfico. Para las lesiones graves y leves, los valores estimados fueron de 219.000 y 6100 euros, respectivamente. Las cifras obtenidas tienen un orden de magnitud similar al de los países de nuestro entorno (AU)

Cost-benefit analyses in the field of road safety compute human costs as a key component of total costs. The present article presents two studies promoted by the Directorate-General for Traffic aimed at obtaining official values for the costs associated with fatal and non-fatal traffic injuries in Spain. We combined the contingent valuation approach and the (modified) standard gamble technique in two surveys administered to large representative samples (n1=2,020, n2=2,000) of the Spanish population. The monetary value of preventing a fatality was estimated to be 1.4 million euros. Values of 219,000 and 6,100 euros were obtained for minor and severe non-fatal injuries, respectively. These figures are comparable to those observed in neighboring countries (AU)

Once-daily antiretroviral therapy in a cohort of HIV-infected children and adolescents.

We evaluated the evolution over time of once-daily antiretroviral therapy in HIV-infected children and its relationship with adherence. An increase on the prevalence of once-daily antiretroviral therapy was observed over time (from 0.9% in 2002 to 44.2% in 2011). There was no difference in adherence regarding once-daily or BID regimens in 2011. Adherence was related to age and pill burden.

Lowering the 'floor' of the SF-6D scoring algorithm using a lottery equivalent method.

This paper presents a new scoring algorithm for the SF-6D, one of the most popular preference-based health status measures. Previous SF-6D value sets have a minimum (a floor), which is substantially higher than the lowest value generated by the EQ-5D model. Our algorithm expands the range of SF-6D utility scores in such a way that the floor is significantly lowered. We obtain the wider range because of the use of a lottery equivalent method through which preferences from a representative sample of Spanish general population are elicited.

Procalcitonin, a high acute phase reactant in antiepileptic hypersentivity syndrome in pediatric age.

Antiepileptic hypersensitivity syndrome (AHS) is a potentially life-threatening syndrome in pediatric cases. It is associated with aromatic anticonvulsivant drugs and others antibiotics with or without associated reactivation of virus. The pathogenesis of the process is not clear. Clinical feature of this syndrome include cutaneous reactions, fever and lymphadenopathies, but different organs can be involved. In laboratory analyses we can find leucocytosis, eosinophilia, and increase in transaminase levels. Significant elevation of procalcitonin (PCT) has been described in two adults patients. This study we report two cases of a 14-year-old male and a 13-year-old female with a AHS and a high level of the PCT. These are the first cases described in pediatric age. Establishing a diagnosis of AHS is important to avoid the use of the involved drug. The treatment is based on the withdrawal of the drugs that are supposed and if there is no improvement or a deterioration of the patient, the use of systemic corticosteroids is often useful.

Inverse probability weighted estimation of social tariffs: an illustration using the SF-6D value sets.

This paper presents a novel approach to model health state valuations using inverse probability weighting techniques. Our approach makes no assumption on the distribution of health state values, accommodates covariates in a flexible way, eschews parametric assumptions on the relationship between the outcome and the covariates, allows for an undetermined amount of heterogeneity in the estimates and it formally tests and corrects for sample selection biases. The proposed model is semi-parametrically estimated and it is illustrated with health state valuation data collected for Spain using the SF-6D descriptive system. Estimation results indicate that the standard regression model underestimates the utility loss that the Spanish general population assigns to departures from full health, particularly so for severe departures.

Causes of death in pediatric patients vertically infected by the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 in Madrid, Spain, from 1982 to mid-2009.

BACKGROUND: Effective therapies have increased life expectancy of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected pediatric patients. We investigated the underlying causes of death, mortality, and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) rates in HIV-infected pediatric patients in Madrid, Spain. METHODS: We studied a multicenter cohort of 478 HIV-infected pediatric patients in Madrid. Mortality and AIDS incidence rates, causes of death, CD4 T-cell, and HIV RNA were analyzed during calendar periods (CPs): pre-HAART (highly active antiretroviral therapy) (CP1: 1982-1996) and post-HAART era (CP2: 1997-2009). RESULTS: During 5690 person-years of follow-up 157 (32.8%) deaths occurred. Median age at death increased (CP1: 3.2 years [1.0-6.3] vs. CP2: 7.7 years [3.1-11.4]; P < 0.01). Mortality and AIDS rates decreased 10.6-fold (95% confidence intervals [CI]: 6.9-16.7) and 6.9-fold (95% CI: 5.0-9.6), respectively, between CPs. Nevertheless, mortality was 10.4-fold (95% CI: 5.8-18.8; P < 0.001) higher than in age-similar general population in late-CP2. In all, 169 causes of death were reported. Multiple causes were reported in 16 of 151 (10.6%) patients. In 81.1% (137/169), the causes were AIDS-defining, 11.8% (20/169) HIV-related, and 7.1% (12/169) non-HIV-related. Infections were the leading causes (60.8%, 101/166); from 1999 to 2007 the risk of death from infections was 115.9 times (95% CI: 42.0-265.8; P < 0.001) higher than in the age-similar general population. Comorbidity was reported in 66.9% (101/151) of patients. Median HIV-1 RNA at death decreased (CP1: 5.9 [5.0-6.3]; CP2: 5.3 [4.2-5.8]; P < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Despite decline in mortality and AIDS rates, it is important to monitor all causes of death as prolonged survival might allow underlying comorbidity to become more clinically relevant.

The hereditary hyperferritinemia-cataract syndrome: a family study.

Ferritin is an acute-phase reactant that is elevated in the course of infectious, inflammatory, autoimmune, and oncological diseases and the hemophagocytic syndrome. In asymptomatic patients, isolated hyperferritinemia may be due to different causes depending on whether or not it is accompanied by iron overload. Hyperferritinemia values above 300 ng/ml and an excess of body iron levels may be indicative of hemochromatosis. However, if such values develop in the absence of iron overload, they may be secondary to hemochromatosis type 4a (ferroportin disease) or more often to hereditary hyperferritinemia-cataract syndrome (HHCS; Aguilar-Martinez et al., Am J Gastroenterol 100:1185-1194, 2005; Ferrante et al., Eur J Gastroenterol Hepatol 17:1247-1253, 2005). HHCS results from different mutations in the L-ferritin gene (FTL) on chromosome 19 (19q13.1), causing autosomal dominant transmission (Bertola et al., Curr Drug Targets Immune Endocr Metabol Disord 4:93-105, 2004). We present a child with HHCS due to the allelic variant c.-167C>T (C33T) in the iron-responsive element region of the FTL gene. When pediatricians encounter an asymptomatic patient with isolated hyperferritinemia in the absence of iron overload, they should consider the possibility of HHCS, especially if other members of the family have developed cataracts from a young age.

Fiebre mediterránea familiar / Familial Mediterrane an fever

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