Performance of a Predictive Model for Long-Term Hemoglobin Response to Darbepoetin and Iron Administration in a Large Cohort of Hemodialysis Patients.

Anemia management, based on erythropoiesis stimulating agents (ESA) and iron supplementation, has become an increasingly challenging problem in hemodialysis patients. Maintaining hemodialysis patients within narrow hemoglobin targets, preventing cycling outside target, and reducing ESA dosing to prevent adverse outcomes requires considerable attention from caregivers. Anticipation of the long-term response (i.e. at 3 months) to the ESA/iron therapy would be of fundamental importance for planning a successful treatment strategy. To this end, we developed a predictive model designed to support decision-making regarding anemia management in hemodialysis (HD) patients treated in center. An Artificial Neural Network (ANN) algorithm for predicting hemoglobin concentrations three months into the future was developed and evaluated in a retrospective study on a sample population of 1558 HD patients treated with intravenous (IV) darbepoetin alfa, and IV iron (sucrose or gluconate). Model inputs were the last 90 days of patients' medical history and the subsequent 90 days of darbepoetin/iron prescription. Our model was able to predict individual variation of hemoglobin concentration 3 months in the future with a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.75 g/dL. Error analysis showed a narrow Gaussian distribution centered in 0 g/dL; a root cause analysis identified intercurrent and/or unpredictable events associated with hospitalization, blood transfusion, and laboratory error or misreported hemoglobin values as the main reasons for large discrepancy between predicted versus observed hemoglobin values. Our ANN predictive model offers a simple and reliable tool applicable in daily clinical practice for predicting the long-term response to ESA/iron therapy of HD patients.

A novel semi-supervised methodology for extracting tumor type-specific MRS sources in human brain data.

BACKGROUND: The clinical investigation of human brain tumors often starts with a non-invasive imaging study, providing information about the tumor extent and location, but little insight into the biochemistry of the analyzed tissue. Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy can complement imaging by supplying a metabolic fingerprint of the tissue. This study analyzes single-voxel magnetic resonance spectra, which represent signal information in the frequency domain. Given that a single voxel may contain a heterogeneous mix of tissues, signal source identification is a relevant challenge for the problem of tumor type classification from the spectroscopic signal. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Non-negative matrix factorization techniques have recently shown their potential for the identification of meaningful sources from brain tissue spectroscopy data. In this study, we use a convex variant of these methods that is capable of handling negatively-valued data and generating sources that can be interpreted as tumor class prototypes. A novel approach to convex non-negative matrix factorization is proposed, in which prior knowledge about class information is utilized in model optimization. Class-specific information is integrated into this semi-supervised process by setting the metric of a latent variable space where the matrix factorization is carried out. The reported experimental study comprises 196 cases from different tumor types drawn from two international, multi-center databases. The results indicate that the proposed approach outperforms a purely unsupervised process by achieving near perfect correlation of the extracted sources with the mean spectra of the tumor types. It also improves tissue type classification. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We show that source extraction by unsupervised matrix factorization benefits from the integration of the available class information, so operating in a semi-supervised learning manner, for discriminative source identification and brain tumor labeling from single-voxel spectroscopy data. We are confident that the proposed methodology has wider applicability for biomedical signal processing.

BELM: Bayesian extreme learning machine.

The theory of extreme learning machine (ELM) has become very popular on the last few years. ELM is a new approach for learning the parameters of the hidden layers of a multilayer neural network (as the multilayer perceptron or the radial basis function neural network). Its main advantage is the lower computational cost, which is especially relevant when dealing with many patterns defined in a high-dimensional space. This brief proposes a bayesian approach to ELM, which presents some advantages over other approaches: it allows the introduction of a priori knowledge; obtains the confidence intervals (CIs) without the need of applying methods that are computationally intensive, e.g., bootstrap; and presents high generalization capabilities. Bayesian ELM is benchmarked against classical ELM in several artificial and real datasets that are widely used for the evaluation of machine learning algorithms. Achieved results show that the proposed approach produces a competitive accuracy with some additional advantages, namely, automatic production of CIs, reduction of probability of model overfitting, and use of a priori knowledge.

An integrated framework for risk profiling of breast cancer patients following surgery.

OBJECTIVE: An integrated decision support framework is proposed for clinical oncologists making prognostic assessments of patients with operable breast cancer. The framework may be delivered over a web interface. It comprises a triangulation of prognostic modelling, visualisation of historical patient data and an explanatory facility to interpret risk group assignments using empirically derived Boolean rules expressed directly in clinical terms. METHODS AND MATERIALS: The prognostic inferences in the interface are validated in a multicentre longitudinal cohort study by modelling retrospective data from 917 patients recruited at Christie Hospital, Wilmslow between 1983 and 1989 and predicting for 931 patients recruited in the same centre during 1990-1993. There were also 291 patients recruited between 1984 and 1998 at the Clatterbridge Centre for Oncology and the Linda McCartney Centre, Liverpool, UK. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: There are three novel contributions relating this paper to breast cancer cases. First, the widely used Nottingham prognostic index (NPI) is enhanced with additional clinical features from which prognostic assessments can be made more specific for patients in need of adjuvant treatment. This is shown with a cross matching of the NPI and a new prognostic index which also provides a two-dimensional visualisation of the complete patient database by risk of negative outcome. Second, a principled rule-extraction method, orthogonal search rule extraction, generates readily interpretable explanations of risk group allocations derived from a partial logistic artificial neural network with automatic relevance determination (PLANN-ARD). Third, 95% confidence intervals for individual predictions of survival are obtained by Monte Carlo sampling from the PLANN-ARD model.

The use of neural networks for predicting the result of endoscopic treatment for vesico-ureteric reflux.

OBJECTIVE: To create an artificial neural network (ANN) to aid in predicting the results of endoscopic treatment for vesico-ureteric reflux (VUR). MATERIALS AND METHODS: During 1999-2001 we used endoscopic treatment in 261 ureteric units with VUR of all grades and causes. An ANN based on multilayer perceptron architecture was created using an 11 x 6 x 1 structure, taking the following as variables: the cause and grade of VUR, the patient's age and sex, the type of implanted substance and its volume, the number of treatments, the affected ureter, the endoscopic findings, and the type of cystography used. In all, 174 cases were used as training samples for the ANN and 87 to validate it. We calculated the sensitivity, specificity, positive (PPV) and negative predictive values (NPV), and the success rate (%) of the system. RESULTS: In the training group the ANN gave a sensitivity of 86.4%, a specificity of 89.5%, a PPV of 76% and NPV of 94%, with a success rate of 88.6%. In the same training group logistic regression (LR) gave respective values of 68.2%, 58.8%, 39%, 82.7% and 61.4%. In the validation group the respective values for the ANN were 71.4%, 81.6%, 58.8%, 88.6% and 78.9%, and in the same validation group the LR gave 64.4%, 50%, 32.1%, 79.2% and 53.9%. The Wilcoxon test confirmed the independence of both methods (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The ANN is an effective tool for assisting the urologist in indicating and applying endoscopic treatments for VUR.